General Betting
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28 Apr 14
13:42
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24 Nov 05
With 7 deciding games to be played you would think that the overall odds to win the Premier League would closely reflect the accumulated results odds for the remaining fixtures.
Well, unless I've mucked up, they don't really.
As of now...
Man City 1.85
Liverpool 2.42
Chelsea 19.5
Using *ddschecker best prices for future fixtures and running n0,000 simulations (quicker than trying to work the maths out for me) I get..
Man City 2.18
Liverpool 2.08
Chelsea 17
OK the market over-rounds are a bit large at the moment, but even so that is quite a discrepancy?
Well, unless I've mucked up, they don't really.
As of now...
Man City 1.85
Liverpool 2.42
Chelsea 19.5
Using *ddschecker best prices for future fixtures and running n0,000 simulations (quicker than trying to work the maths out for me) I get..
Man City 2.18
Liverpool 2.08
Chelsea 17
OK the market over-rounds are a bit large at the moment, but even so that is quite a discrepancy?
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1.73//2.58//27 are my prices
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Don't you use a series of conditionals here. The odds used will change if different results occur. For instance if Man City beat Everton then their odds change for the other matches.
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The biggest thing that will influence future prices is whether Villa or West Ham have anything to play for when they play away at Man City and Cardiff have something to play for when they face Chelsea.
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What software is needed to run n0,000 simulations?
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I used Excel
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Why so many simulations?
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The more simulations run, the more accurate the output. once you've set up the calculation once, it's easy to copy it a few thousand times.
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[font color="red"]simulations[/font]
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