Strategies... In your opinion ...

With HORSE RACING many strategies exist that can "work". If someone removes the "goal posts", then the strategies may become useless.

FOOTBALL is more of a lottery, so genuine "edge" harder to find.

If you have a method of recognising "VALUE", then you can have strategies that can work with HR......

From what you post, you appear to rely on your own judgment as to when to "jump in"......thus you are relying on your subjective judgment, as opposed to a more mathematical method of when to "jump in"!

In HR you know many FACTORS prior to race, and can rate a race then check the odds to find VALUE.
( Of course there are factors that can change a horse's chances of winning once a race starts.....
and this is where you have to be consistently good enough with your "system", ie have real "edges" that provide many chances to make a profit through consistently finding VALUE using a more mathematical approach than a subjective approach based on opinion.)

FOOTBALL is more volatile re REFEREEING decisions changing how you believe a game will develop, or a player suddenly doing something that is hard to see occurring leading to a goal. Even the top players make huge mistakes eg RONALDO last night missing a clear cut chance to score.  Just seems to be so many FACTORS that can ruin the best laid plans with FOOTBALL betting.

GL on testing your method of betting.

Yes Somemuppet there are winning methods, but basically they all entail understanding value, so agree with you there DFC, but I'm solely football and don't touch HR with a barge pole.

I could tell you (somemuppet)if your potential system would work or not, but of course I don't want you to tell me about it because if it does work I might steal it ;)

It is really easy to assess a method/system though. Do you know why you think it will work? You should know this and it must be because you have a way of identifying value, then getting matched at that value. If it doesn't involve that it almost certainly won't work.

I can't imagine any professional gambler knew they were professional until a good amount of banked winnings.  At some point you have to gamble that your data/knowledge/analysis is sound and gamble that it will hold in the future.  The one thing I've realised is that you really can't wait once you've identified something.  Some will work, some won't - all will teach you something.

NB, I am not a professional gambler!

My own view is to take away the word 'systems' and replace it with 'filters'

Once you do that, you end up with a short-list of opportunities.  From there, you need to dig deeper and decide if it is a flutter or an investment.

What will make you profitable is always getting value on your backs and giving poor value on your lays.
Where I fall down is over exposing my bank,which is criminal.

I think the majority of punters overstake, the desire to win and win as soon as you can is a big problem.

There you have the problem. But as there is no quick fix to being profitable it
will last.

Winning strategies exist. Its also a fact that you can get bored out your mind sitting there executing them after several thou markets. Then you need to start again just to maintain enthusiasm.

I think the majority of punters overstake, the desire to win and win as soon as you can is a big problem


think ... you mean ... KNOW

overstaking has always been my biggest problem. not helped by the fact that i could put 10k on a horse and not feel scared. my biggest loss was 8k on a boxing match

Apr 26, 2014 -- 7:59PM, mandarin wrote:

Winning strategies exist. Its also a fact that you can get bored out your mind sitting there executing them after several thou markets. Then you need to start again just to maintain enthusiasm.

THIS I totally agree to. 

I had racks of filters for football covering countless markets.  Got absolutely board of even placing them, working out the value, etc.

For horse racing, held onto my ratings (7 years in the making) but do so much more form reading and a joy when you find winners at solid prices, especially longer odds.

Funny that, I get matched on around 1000 markets per week (manually) and I'm still as enthusiastic as ever.

But I do live and breathe this, haven't had a day off for around 5 years.

I guess it depends on how much money you're making too, if it's not even equiv to the minimum wage then yes I can see it could be soul destroying.

when I started making money I was using a different method, and that involved far more work than I do nowadays for far less money, and although it wasn't boring it did grind me down, but I did learn a lot from that period, enough to progress on to better things. There's no easy way, even in gambling you have to put the work in.

I sent you a pm Trevh, did you read it ?

Yes mate, replied.

The main problem for most recreational punters is ultimately they're in it for the buzz not to win money. Unfortunately most winning strategies aren't very exciting to implement day in day out. If you can automate your system, which most can be, any flaws should show up soon enough.

Recently met with someone who has all his systems automated on servers, goes to work, comes home and reviews his day.  Anywhere from one bet per track to four.

He knows that if he was at home, they would make more since he would elimate one or two a day but month to month, it is a steady earner for him.

With the racing on in front of you it's very tempting to have unnecessary bets also

"But I do live and breathe this, haven't had a day off for around 5 years."

Not even on Christmas. How many hours work do you do on christmas. Hang on a sec are you buddhist or muslim. Is there nothing that you actually want to do or go and see that would mean having to take a whole day off. That's crazy (obviously in my opinion and not yours).

Ha, I'm 100% atheist U.A., I do what ever matches are available on christmas day.

If I went somewhere on holiday I would take a laptop so that I could bet, haha :)

how much realisticly would you need as a start up bank if you wanted to go full time on here?

Thats a great question, its been asked and answered before on plenty of threads but its prob best to use this as a hobby and work in a full time job if you have one.

"But I do live and breathe this, haven't had a day off for around 5 years."

i have at least 2 days off a week and more if i have a good run or bad run.
same with a bad loss or very good win.

get the head 100% clear by going and doing something away from gambling for a few days...even if a big event is on.

winter i dont touch the gee gees...only football so week ends are busy ish.

the height of summer is busy but then again i "filter" my horse races...so i have quite a bit of free time.

work life ballance is vital imo.

i think that because i think i was overworked in my younger days and nearly burnt out

May 3, 2014 -- 11:47PM, PugMunter1 wrote:

how much realisticly would you need as a start up bank if you wanted to go full time on here?

More money does not necessarily mean more profit.

The advantage of more money means that you can position ahead on racing otherwise all you stand to do is overexpose yourself.

If you are going full-time, ask yourself what your target is per day. 

If it is 50 quid, then you need to figure out how much you need to make that over, say, 8 horse races during the day.

If it 100, then, again, what you need to make it happen.

back - lay back lay

shapeshifter i would be happy with 40 a day. Working 6 days out the 7

football and horse racing are my sports. I have been working on systems for both sports. It involves a bit of dutching and adjusting steaks for next bet if required.

I would prob need at least 8 grand before being comfortable doing this ft

You don't need 8000 to make 40.

12 horse races (4 per meeting)
3-4 quid per
Dutch back two or three researched selection
trade to reduce risk rather than profit.

Strategies evolve, I used to lay 0-0 correct scores,with a lot of discipline and a lot of success.The obvious downside was the liabilities.I modified the strategy kept the discipline,and now back a lot of over 1.5 goals,but not entering the market until at least 15 minutes into the game.

I have found this has worked really well for me,but must say discipline is the key.I find it hard at times,so to combat discipline/boredom I often play for small money on markets for the interest.However all the bets I place on my main account are identified well in advance of the event.

The  0 0 scoreline gives me the creeps. I presume you enter and leave the market at a certain point.

Don't lay 0-0 anymore enter the market after about 15 mins and back over 1.5 if score is still 0-0,can usually trade if needs be,not always,and losing bets occur.

A few recent examples backed over 1.5 in Chelsea ended 0-0,lost a few bob redded out,but no major damage.I didn't do arsenal/wba as they scored on 14 minutes just before I got matched finished 1-0,backed over 1.5 palace/liverpool about three minutes before the goal.

Those are very recent examples,had I laid 0-0 in all three pre kick off,well you can do the maths.

I backed 0-0 in the Chelsea game :D

Did you let it run or trade out

the way i punt means i only bet on one match at a time

the downside to this is that i am missing out on other opportunities

i only bet a certain percentage of my bank each time

if i a want 2 bet on 2 match at same time should i stick still to using a percentage of my bank?

Eg my 1st bet may be 3 points

at that stage by bank has decreased by 3 points for time being. Should my next bed be based on the percentage remaining in my bank at that stage?

Had a little cover on 1-0s so let it run.  Norwich only seem to have one gear and until the floodgates open they tend to defend their third pretty well.  To be fair, it worked this time, hasn't countless others.  Really hoping Brighton come up out of the playoffs as they will be a 0-0 bet every match.

Pugmunter, if the outcomes are uncorrelated, it sounds sensible to me.

many thanks coinflip.

I am trying a new system for the next few days using 3% of bank for each bet

I appreciate 3 days isnt a huge sample size but it will be of benefit
After first bet my bank has increased by 16.05 points

I think the best strategy is proabably to log out and forget about it and then get a life.

Copy the picks on my channel Hard Hitting Betting on youtube, that's a winning strategy

I've paper traded until recently a system averaging over 80pts ina 16 week period. Its laying on the win market and has a strike rate of 91%. In last couple of days I've identified an opportunity in the place market but it is hugely dependent on prices I can get. I've never paid much attention to the place market so I'm not sure the type of prices I'll get in relation to the win market prices. I've analysed place price to an extent and through the same selection criteria there is a huge opportunity to double the points over the 16 week period. The system is hugely mathematical and there is a lot of touch points used to identify the lays. It has started well since I went live recently and now im hoping it delivers