General Betting
How not to bet!
|
By:
What are you moaning about ....the 2 shortners won...and a high odds one shortened to 12.50......and SW drifted after post from 11.5 to 13.50.....eventually to 1,000 IR
 G'day... |
|
By:
Was a dead heat? And I am not moaning at anything. I am learning a bunch. Your weather is all up to siht. Drifters everywhere....
|
|
By:
15:50 Lingfield Park
Full result 1st 2 Modernism 3/1 f SHORTENED TO WIN  2nd 11 Red Warrior (IRE) 10/1 3rd 8 Hector's Chance 8/1 Winning TrainerD Simcock Winning JockeyJ Crowley Runners 12 ran Non runners10, 13 Withdrawn14 Distancesnk, 1 Result 15:40 Stratford Full result 1st 7 Mart Lane (IRE) 5/1 2nd 4 Simply Wings (IRE) 10/1 prior to race drifted from 11.5 to 13.5 after posting .....and LOST 3rd 6 Harry Hunt 15/2 Winning TrainerD Newland Winning JockeyS Twiston-Davies Runners 9 ran Unpl. FavThe Druids Nephew (IRE) 13/8 F Distances3, 2 ½ Tote Win £5.90 Pl £1.70,£3.40,£1.50 EX £60.10 SF £51.97 Tricast £371.06 Swingers 1&2 £5.70, 2&3 £5.60, 1&3 £8.90 Weighed In 15:30 Sedgefield Full result 1st 6 Cavite Eta (IRE) 25/1 NO SELECTION GIVEN 2nd 12 Think Its All Over (USA) 5/2 f 3rd 3 Talkin Thomas (IRE) 11/4 Winning TrainerF Murtagh Winning JockeyH Brooke Runners 12 ran Distances½, ½ Tote Win £40.20 Pl £9.20,£1.70,£1.80 EX £131.70 SF £87.01 Tricast £237.20 Swingers 1&2 £18.50, 2&3 £3.20, 1&3 £22.40 Weighed In 15:20 Lingfield Park lalandia shortened prior to racing....after posting. Full result 1st 14 Speckled (USA) 10/1 2nd 3 Livia's Dream (IRE) 100/1 3rd 12 Phiz (GER) 8/1 Winning TrainerC Appleby Winning JockeyS Sousa Runners 13 ran Non runners4 Unpl. FavPhaenomena (IRE) 11/4 F Distances1 ¾, hd Tote Win £11.80 Pl £3.40,£14.20,£1.90 EX £960.60 SF £802.59 Swingers 1&2 £54.30, 2&3 £118.20, 1&3 £12.60 Weighed In 15:10 Stratford Full result 1st 7 Danandy (IRE) 5/1 Shortened to WIN 2nd 8 Cornish Ice 16/1 3rd 1 Listen Boy (IRE) 6/4 f DRIFTED IR and LOST Winning TrainerP Hobbs Winning JockeyT O'Brien Runners 8 ran Non runners9 Distances9, 1 ¼ Tote Win £7.20 Pl £1.80,£3.60,£1.20 EX £107.60 SF £70.87 Tricast £174.54 Swingers 1&2 £10.00, 2&3 £7.70, 1&3 £3.40 Weighed In |
|
By:
They drift after I post
 |
|
By:
You are an absolute clown. rotflmfao
3:10 neither moved when you suggested they would. Lalandina you said would in running, can't claim pre race. Simply Wings, which you didn't even pick, had a WAP of 12.21, so hardly a drifter and Modernism was a favourite that won. Either way, the weather must be causing havoc today, since that is the main reason a horse will drift or shorten.... |
|
By:
2 winners and you moan from 3 shortners given....Tis you that are the clown
|
|
By:
So explain to me then, what part the weather played in the price movement then.
|
|
By:
Just signed in... 70 new messages!!! I'll be back in about 55 hours when I've read them all!
|
|
By:
Don't bother lol. Most of them are from gooses that have no idea what they are talking about...
 |
|
By:
GOING suited the two winners as well as having a number of factors in favour......
One of them won on a AW course.....as it happens RAIN probably would not have lessened it chances today .....HIGH WING may well have stopped it...so conditions suited AW winner. GOING suited winner on NH, as well as other factors in favour. As it was a NH race type.....had it RAINED heavily, then it probbaly still would have won. Had the sun been shining and it was WINDY, then going may well have changed to GOOD TO SOFT......or GOOD in this country.....and this probably would have given it a far less chance of winning today......As it happened the GOING stayed SOFT ....so was fine for horse today. LISTEN BOY chances of winning would have increased had GOING dried out.....never happened , but market still made it favourite...they got it wrong as usual.  |
|
By:
HIGH WIND ....
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
And for the record the race where Danandy shortened, there were 8 starters:
Ringa Bay WAP 4.15 trading 4 The Rockies 5.96/6 Western King 5.11/5.1 Rocky Bender 11.55/13 Raduis Bleu 15.05/15.5 Grey Soldier 20.42/21 Michigan Assassin 20.66/19.5 Danandy 6.63/5.9 As you can see, the only real move in the race, was for Danandy. He didn't shorten due to a big drifter. The others were all pretty spot on, just shared the drift required to bring Danandy in about 15%..... It wasn't the weather that caused it, and it certainly wasn't to make up for the move of another. To back this up even further, the traded volume ratio went up from 106% to 110% in the last minute. There was only 1 other horse that increased in the final minute Michigan Assassin from 78-83%. Was significantly more money for those 2, and they were the 2 that were trading shorter than their WAP but MA was only about 6% shorter whereas Dan was about 13% shorter. Thanks for trying, but I think I am going along ok....  |
|
By:
I never posted the shortners/drifters to PROVE a point re GOING CHANGES being main reasons for DRIFTING or SHORTENING.
It is yersel that is against this opinion....not me. Most of your points are irrelevant to the fact that I put up LISTEN BOY as likely drifter ......it went out to 1,000BF............finished 3rd...never won. DANANDY ....was posted as likely to shorten.....it did ...it WON so 0 at finish. BTW ....the odds did go the way I said they would at time of posting them..... LISTEN BOY was sitting at 2.66 and went out to 2.92 before coming back in again at the off. DANANDY was 6.8 when I posted it would shorten...it shortened to 6 bf just after I posted it. I was not going on about the GOING at time of posting them.......and as there was no GOING CHANGE for this race prior to off, then I was just indicating what was likely to happen to both horses AFTER I POSTED. You might have thought the post was linked to GOING CHANGE and how this affects odds......however, it wasn't. DANANDY was the likely winner........and perhaps I should have said that on post.....however, I was convinced it would probably win ( though never said that) on GOING as stated by SL......and it did shorten prior to off and IR.....so where did I go "wrong"???? =========================================================================================== LALANDIA was posted as MAY shorten IR ......it did shorten after I posted by 1 point......but not IR.....so got that one correct at time of post ...but the MAY shorten IR was "wrong"..... Once again I was not making the suggestion it would shorten based on GOING CHANGE .....as there was no GOING CHANGE......The likely 3 yo won the race.....so I "guessed" that one wrong....so what! ========================================================================================== The 3.40 race I did get name wrong when posting SIMPLY WINGS likely to drift....which it did after I posted from 11.5 to 13.5....before coming back in again.....it also went out 1,000 as never won! I did post correct time for race...and clearly it was the horse I meant to post ....only one with WINGS in name. IT did threaten to win...but drifted out to 1,000 BF ....so where did I go wrong? ============================================================================================ 3.50 race.....Modernism 3/1 f ....I said was likely to shorten IR ...WON.......It did shorten from 4.5 BF to 4.2 after I posted....and did shorten to 0 IR ....so again where did I go wrong? I also indicated ARABIAN STAR may shorten IR in same race.....it finished last ...but did shorten from 40 BF to 12.5 shortly after off........so where did I go wrong? ====================================================================================== 2 winners and 1 clear shortener from 4 selections likely to shorten ain't that bad ...is it? On the 2 drift selections ....SIMPLY WINGS and LISTEN BOY went out to 1,000 IR.....so perfect guesses there......Terrible guessing ...isn't it! ================================================================================== You state ..." The market has already taken into account what the weather is doing, what it is likely to do, what the ground conditions are, and what they are likely to do. The market will react to said conditions, when the unexpected happens." So why do 66% favourites get beaten if the market is so perfect? The market is only "perfect" re ensuring there is a BOOK profit to be made from odds set......it is not perfect re ODDS set.....for conditions for race. I don't need to justify my point re the fact that GOING CHANGES and WEATHER CONDITIONS CHANGING does cause horses to drift and shorten.........it is already well known. You are the one who is scathing about this well known fact.....so you prove otherwise. Your list of reasons why horses drift I accept as being some of the reasons why they drift........BUT, as i have already stated....sheppy can see RAIN falling or HIGH WINDS blowing.......and it is something practical he can note when considering whether to back or lay.....whereas most of your points are not practical for sheppy to take account of...as he/she is not at course to observe them, and technically he/she is probably not experienced enough to know what is relevant or not. GL with betting in BRITAIN......... |
|
By:
Do you even buy into half the crap you write?
Your comment, was that the majority of horses that drift or shorten, is because of going changes. Did you not? Out of all your miraculous drifters that drifted out to 1000 IR (are you for real?), how many of them, were based on going changes? How many of the ones I showed you are based on going changes? You are yet to show me 1 drifter that drifted because of a going change, and I have seen at least 100 decent drifters since you started your dribble. |
|
By:
Your comment, was that the majority of horses that drift or shorten, is because of going changes.
Show me where I posted that........You are just making it up as you go along. I said it was the MAIN reason why there are drifters ......or shorteners....and linked to weather conditions too. Anyway ....you stick to what you believe .....I don't care what that is...as you appear to be someone obsessed re market moves...whereas, I am obsessed re the horse most likely to WIN.... Bye the noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Down to daft traders
 |
|
By:
and what you said that I said is totally different from above bold post which you dragged up......Gotta be fairly thick not to note the difference!
|
|
By:
DFCIRONMAN 31 Oct 13 15:35
What Factors Affect Price Movement On The Betting Exchanges? Form Horse condition & behaviour in paddock before race Change in weather conditions Going change Jockey changes People in the know (owners/trainers etc.) ================================================================================================================== The above are the main factors......whether ....or weatherTongue Out...you like it or not...... =============================================================================================================== You will note that in others opinion that 2 out of the 5 factors are the ones I suggest are the MAIN factors......and as they are appropriate to thread ...you go bile yer heid ! |
|
By:
2 of the 6 factors....too busy working just now ...
|
|
By:
2/6 but they are both the same thing. The change in weather doesn't matter in the slightest if it doesn't affect the track.
Big difference between A factor, and THE MAIN factor. How are your examples coming along of all these drifters, and how 2/6 of the contributing factors were simply down to the going in the track? |
|
By:
I count 105 decent drifters since the 30th. So no doubt, you could name plenty. Why don't you?
And seriously. How often does a jockey swap rides in the race about to start? You want to put that in is one of the main reasons for price movement? How many jockeys today, for example, have changed jockeys, even from what was listed this morning? Any? |
|
By:
There is what, 100k horses run in total in the UK in 1 year. Around 10% of those will drift significantly. That is 10,000.
Out of those 10,000, you are going to tell me, that 1 of the main reasons those 10,000 horses drifted, was because the jockey change? rotflmfao Absolute goose. |
|
By:
BJT 01 Nov 13 16:34
2/6 but they are both the same thing. The change in weather doesn't matter in the slightest if it doesn't affect the track. ======================================================================================================================== Just shows how much of a perfectionist you are ...NOT! Think about it........If you believe they are the "same thing".......they are not. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Main changes to GOING are caused by RAIN........................
Weather conditions can be more than just RAIN.....WIND being the one to watch for at sea-side courses especially. The point being made you seem to be indicating that CHANGES IN GOING are not relevant to thread......when you say "So go and find a thread in regards to that and keep out of the one specifically about market moves." You are just being blinkered by your own opinion.... |
|
By:
You are just fishingggggggggggggggggggggggggg
You are learning me nothing new .......so G'day........I'll leave you to believe that all you say is all that counts re DRIFTERS.......the fact you omitted GOING CHANGES from your list.....you might have mentioned it ....but not much emphasis on it ...so not worth noting. I initially reacted to your biased comments and dodgy comments re FRANKEL ...and trainer.........but GOING CHANGES are relevant to thread...so no more to be said. GL with bets. |
|
By:
Of course going changes are relevant. When they are unexpected. Which happens SFA. Hence why you can't link it to any of the 100+ drifters in the last 2.5 days racing, let alone most of them.
You are the one that made the statement, so shouldn't be too hard to back up. I backed all my statements up. Nothing bias or dodgy at all. 100% facts. |
|
By:
Hi guys! Great debate/argument - which ever is the correct word!
I've had a terrible 2 days punting! In fact, I need to take a break from horse racing cos I keep losing money. The stupid thing is, I hardly watch any racing, just loads of odds on my computer screen which always seem to go against me! I'm starting to realise that you need some knowledge in this game which I haven't got much of. I keep trying out different strategies such as backing horses that have drifted a lot thinking that they'll come down, like they've over drifted etc. You need a good head for gambling which I definitely haven't got. My nightmare started on the 1.40 @ Stratford yesterday. I'd backed "Mister Fantastic" and after about 10 seconds into the race his odds jumped up to 1000. I knew it was all over. I couldn't lay "Advisor" off either, so it was a bad start to the afternoon! I broke the golden rule by trying to chase my losses with bigger stakes and horses that I wouldn't normally have backed. I really lost the plot! It didn't get any better, and around 6pm I went for a walk with the intention of getting my head together and repeatedly said that I was gonna give up on horse racing. Today, I felt the need to make up for yesterday and it went completely pear-shaped! The problem is, I enjoy trading on the horses, that's why I do it! But, I don't enjoy losing money so I need to do some serious thinking..... |
|
By:
Try sports. They are governed by things you can see and hear live. You already know what will move the market, and which way. Still speculating somewhat on the game, but definitely a good place to be if you are having trouble on the horses.
At the very least, it may give you some confidence back. For mine, cricket is by far the best sport to trade. Can go for longer trade periods which is good for those that have to ring up, or if you are able to scalp it, even better. Tennis would be a reasonable sport to trade I think but would need much shorter term strategies. Is good that you have recognised an issue though. Something that really needs to be sorted. I have been doing this for 10 years, and there are still moments where you are like WTF just happened, and why did I do that. Once you can accept that you are a winner, you can start accepting that sometimes that means you will lose. If you can't believe you are a winner though and your opinion is that you will blow up and dump everything, you probably will. This is all in the head this lark and you really need it on your side. GL. |
|
By:
Thanks BJT. Yes gambling is very psychological isn't it???
I've noticed that when I start winning, I feel invincible and get other winners. But, when I start losing, it gets worse and worse! I like betting on golf. I'd have won a fortune if it wasn't for laying my selections too much! I've often had selections which have been masssive odds that haven't won, but have ended up being less than 5s. I definitely think I trade out too early??? Anyway, after losing close to £100 this week I need to do some serious thinking... |
|
By:
85% of us are losers on here sheppy don't believe all the bullshit about professional gambler after professional gambler coming on here telling you he only made a grand this week.
|
|
By:
Thanks no moves. Yes, it's strange how I get a picture in my head that everyone's winning and I'm losing!
It seems quite common though for a lot of gamblers to spend more time talking about their winnings than losings which can give you the impression they're some kinda gambling god! Why do most of us lose so much but still come back to lose more! We must be gluttons for punishment! |
|
By:
BJT 01 Nov 13 17:05
Of course going changes are relevant. When they are unexpected. Which happens SFA. Hence why you can't link it to any of the 100+ drifters in the last 2.5 days racing, let alone most of them. You are the one that made the statement, so shouldn't be too hard to back up. I backed all my statements up. Nothing bias or dodgy at all. 100% facts. ==================================================================================================================== BJT you ae so perfect in all you do and say.........if you believe the under noted ststements by you are FACTS, then I rest my case ===================================================================================== BJT 30.10.13 2.43 Hence a drift in the odds. OPINION BJT 30.10.13 2.43 There are 2 reasons why most of the drift happens on the day. OPINION BJT 30.10.13 13.52 Technically, it isn't illegal in the wording of the rules, but it isn't policed at all and even if it was, the jockey would be suspended for around a week. OPINION BJT 31.10 2.50 I think UK is probably worse than anywhere to be honest OPINION BJT 31.10.13 11.07 The biggest reason a horse will drift and the reason a horse will drift so much, has alot about how it is expected to run. OPINION BJT 31.10.13 12.37 When Jan Vermeer went around at 28/1, and was sent out to try and kill the horse, how did it run? OPINION....AND SOOOOOOOABLE WOULD HAVE THOUGHT! BJT 31.10.13 13.23 Change in going is certainly not the main factor There are 2 reasons why most of the drift happens on the day. OPINION BJT 01.11.13 13.29 It wasn't the weather that caused it OPINION ======================================================================================================== I expressed my OPINION that GOING CHANGES and weather conditions changing can cause drifting .......I don't have to "prove" it....it is just an opinion. It is something that sheppy could have taken into account on considering why a horse drifts....as he/she can observe RAIN falling or HIGH WINDS on screen......they don't have to be at course to pick up on some of factors you listed, omitting CHANGE IN GOING from your list. At least I know that my opinion is just an opinion...whereas, you are so obsessed re MARKET MOVES ( suspect this is the main way you bet) that you believe that all you say is FACT. It is a FORUM where people express opinions ....and sometimes FACTS......It is not a COURT OF LAW where you must prove your case. It is already well known that GOING CHANGES/WEATHER CHANGES can cause a horse to drift.......especially in BRITAIN. However, I suspect the average punter, whoever they are, has not given much consideration to the effect of sudden HIGH WINDS at certain courses that can change GOING with a delay in GOING CHANGE being mentioned by TV commentators......It might be useful for some punters to note this........if they don't believe it is a relevant comment re drifting horses ....then so be it. G'day...and GL with your MARKET MOVES. |
|
By:
Not sure what you are trying to achieve there, but seems you spend a lot of time, for no result.
Instead, why not simply go through all the drifts, and show us how the weather affected them all. You are sadly just another on here that wishes to attack the person and can't back up anything you say with anything but trying to show the other person up. Even if I was wrong, it certainly wouldn't prove your point and suddenly make you right. But stating how I said "I think"........, as me claiming a fact, is just ridiculous. Of course it is an opinion. Then I show how I come up with my opinions, with 100% facts. Most of the others, I have no idea or motivation to go through and find out the context of where it was written, so it really means very little. You really don't have the ability to create valid arguments, so you are a waste of my time. You don't even know what you are arguing about, your whole strategy is simply to try your best to take the focus off yourself. You seem to have an obsession with me, and it is not healthy. So I bid you good day. |
|
By:
BJT 01 Nov 13 17:05
Of course going changes are relevant. When they are unexpected. Which happens SFA. Hence why you can't link it to any of the 100+ drifters in the last 2.5 days racing, let alone most of them. You are the one that made the statement, so shouldn't be too hard to back up. I backed all my statements up. Nothing bias or dodgy at all. 100% facts. ======================================================================================================================================================== So now you say ...."But stating how I said "I think"........, as me claiming a fact, is just ridiculous. Of course it is an opinion. Then I show how I come up with my opinions, with 100% facts. Just don't like someone making out their opinion is suddenly FACT. All the statements above ( in my post on 01.11.13 at 15.20) made by you are not FACTS. Just opinions. You do not know for certain why a horse drifts.......there are many reasons and you just say ........ "BJT 31.10.13 13.23 Change in going is certainly not the main factor There are 2 reasons why most of the drift happens on the day." etc etc You just don't know for certain why drifts happen on horses......so as you made such a statement , as above, then you can do the impossible and " Instead, why not simply go through all the drifts, and show us how the weather affected them all". After all, you say that "I backed all my statements up. Nothing bias or dodgy at all. 100% facts."........It was one of your many sweeping statements that you made and did not supply "proof"......as you can't do so. You have put forward many reasons why a horse drifts......and I am not saying you are "wrong" on such opinion.....You just omitted GOING AND WEATHER CHANGES from your list and I posted to the thread that IMO in Britain when such conditions change....and they do frequently....then this is the MAIN REASONS why horses drift. It is just an opinion, and I do not have to do any more than give sheppy my opinion .....just as you have done. Only difference is ....my opinion is something that sheppy can practically use in considering why a horse might drift. Your list cover many factors that sheppy just can't use in weighing up why a horse has drifted. Both of us made the point that just because a horse drifts it does not mean the horse will not win. You have made many personal attacks on me on this thread....and "Whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap."............ I've just set out all the so called FACTS above that are just OPINION............so your sweeping statement that "I backed all my statements up. Nothing bias or dodgy at all. 100% facts." is highlighted on thread ...... You clearly do know much about market moves and horse racing, I am not knocking you on your knowledge......just putting your statements into perspective in case you mislead someone re your so called FACTS. The statement re the horse F and the connections to horse , as well as on a jockey allegedly riding a horse dead, were outrageous, and you may get bitten on bum re such scurrilous statements. G'day. |
|
By:
So you are saying Bullet Train was in the race to win and it was fluke that he generally wound up slipstreaming his main rival?
Twice now you have made ridiculous statements concerning my comments. Reporting the obvious, widely known, and public information, can not possibly get anybody into trouble. As for all this opinion rubbish. I back my opinion up with facts. Simple as that. You want to sit here and respond with incoherent garbage, then go ahead. I certainly don't have the time to decipher what you are actually saying, and what is supposed to be quotes. When somebody doesn't even know how to use a quote button, they generally don't deserve too much in the way of respect. Certainly don't deserve my time trying to decipher the dribble. Time to give your dad back his computer little boy... |
|
By:
FRANKEL's race record
Flat placings 1111/11111/11111- So you pick on BT .......and what about all the other horses defeated by F........??? Were they in race to win?????? Just accept the FACT....FRANKEL has won every race.................perfect record.....This is not opinion....... BT just another defeated horse...... I suggest you look in the mirror and see yersel as others will see you.....You are getting wilder and wilder re your hyperbolic statements of so called FACT..... |
|
By:
|