General Betting
OK, like a lot of people I keep trying different systems. They've all failed so far but hey, I'll just keep trying till I've no money left in the bank!
Anyway, this isn't a system but this morning I noticed that "On His Own" was running at Naas. I thought that with it being the fav to win the 2013 National, and the fact Ruby was onboard the price would contract before the off, so I got on it @ 8.
About an hour later it was 9's which pissed me off, so for psychological reasons I bet on it again. And then to my absolute horror I found it @11's. Now this is how dumb I am. It could've been injured for all I knew but I just had to back it again. Things were getting very psychological! And then just before the race it was about 17! I backed it 5 times altogether! My intention was always to lay it off a few notches down, but now I just wanted my money back. Fortunately I did, but I'm hoping that I've learned a lesson from this??? Phew! Where do you draw the line!?!
So can somebody tell me why this horse drifted so much???
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happens all the time i'm guessing with horse racing from what I've seen. unless you know your horses surely its the most dangerous trading pre off you can do?
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why don't you ask the horse racing forum?
It's the oldest horse in the race, so it likely has the least improvement, it's aim is probably the GN, the fave had 10lbs in hand and I don't even follow horse racing. It hadn't run for 4 months which probably meant the market was a good guide to it's fitness. |
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Thanks guys!
I've gone through many stages of trying to analyse which horses have the most chances of winning and failed miserably! It's like rocket science to me! So I try and look for other systems that don't require too much knowledge. Still looking... |
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dont worry about it, most people will never work out horse racing, your not alone there are millions of you out there
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He's on quite a good mark at the moment for a return to chasing but perhaps just needed a run to put him spot on so they put him over hurdles today. Even at his best he'd struggle to beat these over hurdles, like Clydebank says he's 10lb badly in with the fav and with others in the race too.
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roadrunner.
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Thanks Stevie
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roadrunner
I think calculus is easier to understand than horse racing! |
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Also if you look back at his last hurdles win shep you'll see that he was actually beaten by another of today's rivals Sesquinane (later disqualified) and he was worse off in the weights with that horse today as well. The Grand National, whilst being a big race is a 4m 4f handicap chase and today was a 2m 4f hurdle against horses like Rule The World who was 2nd in the Sun Alliance hurdle to the current champion hurdle fav The New One.
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Unless you are in the know stay clear sheppy...spend your cash on a holiday and enjoy the sun
 You will lose your entire bank trying to guess which horse will shorten or drift. |
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HARRY22 - that's great advice and I should take it. But it would take a hell of a lot to keep me away from horse racing!
What I need to do is take far less chances, and think more before putting the bet on. I do too many things on the spur of the moment. Stevie Gerrard - Thanks for the info, it was very educational. Phew! |
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Sheppy the reason they drift somebody dont fancy them .. in this game money talks .. hope that helps .. could spend all morning giving reasons ..been on course 40 years been on here about 10 years ..and i DONT back drifters
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Thanks zipper. I definitely can't argue with your great experience.
For many years I've found drifters very appealing. I think it's psychological more than anything else. I can't bring myself to back a horse @ say 10 when it was 50s a few hours before. I always think that a horse may have over drifted cos of the hype of the favourite etc. Phew! It looks like a holiday in the sun might be a better option! |
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To the OP: there's certainly an argument that if you think you have value at 8s, then you should back again when it drifts. However, if you were backing hoping rather than expecting it to contract, then I'm not entirely sure that's a wise policy to back again. However, I seem to have seen more horses than normal recently drift/come in and then do the opposite to what the market was expecting.
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Thanks Darlo. Yes it's all about value isn't it??? But, for me, I felt the need to back it again for psychological reasons which isn't the right thing to do. It's like I felt ripped off when it drifted so wanted to back it again. I hate to admit that I've done this lots of times, and although it isn't a winning strategy long term, it does feel good when it wins.
A memorable drift for me was "Goldboy". It was racing @ Naas a few weeks ago. I'd backed it @ 6 and within minutes in was 12's! I couldn't resist backing it again, which was really dumb really cos I didn't have a clue why it drifted! Anyway, I was absolutely delighted when the bloody thing won! I bet the layers were gutted though! I'm gonna have a break from the horses soon cos I lose more money than I win and I need to come up with better strategies. |
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It's like I felt ripped off when it drifted so wanted to back it again. I hate to admit that I've done this lots of times, and although it isn't a winning strategy long term, it does feel good when it wins.
I do this far too much too. |
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Hahaha I'm glad it's not just me then!
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spot on from zipper..not a huge racing fan but I have had some very good advice on this sport and zipper has it right.
Darlo....he doesn't know if he has value or not,he is just guessing unless he has a tip off and by the way if drifted he isn't in the know  |
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Sheppy123
I remember a few years back I bet on the GN - horse was Paris Pike on the day of the race - was trading around 9/1 - 10/1 with all the layers but 15/1 on here I went in at that price thinking great will get a bit out of this as it will return 11/1 even 12/1 on here ...didn't it do that ...No Speak to BJT he's seem to know his onions.  |
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sheppy123 - Reasons for it drifting were given by some posters above.
Reason why it never completed the 2013 GN .....probably down to going not suiting it......it suited the older horses. Since your have already noted it was a "favourite" for this year GN......IMO ...a "false" fav.....I suggest you pay more attention for this horse being entered for next year's GN. It will all depend though on the GOING on the day , and strength of opposition ....all 39 of them! Currently on AP 44s BF odds...............not bad for last years fav....with all the risk of such a market and loss of bet if does not run... Not a great deal of logic re horses drifting.................did MON MOME drift when romping in at 100 SP? etc etc ...... |
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Not a great deal of logic re horses drifting.................did MON MOME drift when romping in at 100 SP? etc etc ......
Try it over 300 horses that drift and you may not make this comment...mon mome was a steamer from 110/1  |
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With favourites approx 66 % lose.............do most favourites "shorten"?
Either you have an edge or not..........deciding NOT to back a horse because it drifts is just a lemming approach to betting. Similarly lumping on ones that shorten , means you are late catching the value. If you have selected/backed a horse because it has factors in favour on the day.....if it drifts, it really should not bother you......unless you are a "trader".  |
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Thanks guys, you're advice is much appreciated!
I've actually won a few quid today backing drifters. Jazzy Lady and Brave Brook. Unfortunately I layed them a few notches down which is typical isn't it! But, like I said, my system isn't profitable in the long term so I need to try a different strategy. I wish I had more faith in my ability to understand all the complications of the sport, I might be more successful??? |
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Actually, that should be "your" advice, not "you're" advice!
I had to say this so I can sleep tonight! |
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COSMIC HALO , last month, was backed by me at 55 BF initially.........I believed it was "value" as was top rated on my "system". It drifted out to 90s before the off ....so I backed it again.
Why should I blink when a horse has a number of factors in favour for a race....and it drifts massively? If you blindly back drifters , then that can't work long term. GL in your search S. |
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Thanks Ironman, you said some really interesting things here.
I wish I could say something like... Jazzy Lady should be about 25. If it's over, then it's a value bet. The Betfair graph never ceases to amaze me. It often looks like a rollercoaster the way it's gone up and up and up, and then back down again! It's like people can't make their minds up?!? |
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DFC...it was top rated in the whole field? how many runners in this?? what price was the fav?
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The ratings and result was as follows...
YORK 15:35 (WAS NAP IN COMP...AND WAS 50-1 SP JUST BEFORE OFF ...SO LATE MONEY CAME! 1,Cosmic Halo 1ST 33 63.93 0.00 2,Laughing Jack 25 41.42 35.00 3,Aerodynamic 25 43.00 39.00 4,Bishop's Castle 3RD 5 F 5,Day Of Destiny 25 6,King Of The Celts 50 7,Save The Bees 4TH 12 8,Morocco 6 2ND F 9,President Lincoln 50 89.94 10.00 10,Christmas Light 16 18.65 18.00 ============================================================================================= 11,Patriotic 25 29.00 28.00 12,Fragonard 2ND 14 15.23 2.00 13,Arc Light 7 3RD F 14,Tiger Reigns 33 15,Nemushka 14 16,Bank On Me 8 5TH F 17,Barren Brook 7.5 4TH F 18,Super Say 16 19.94 10.00 19,Invincible Hero 25 39.48 8.00 |
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I remember this race..I had christmas light in competition.
so your ratings have the top 3 horses at 33/1 25/1 25/1.. interesting system if it is working for you long term. |
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DFC are you using horse form as one of your main pointers in the system you have?
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You don't always get 3 at top of ratings at high odds...........just happened with that race.
The only other 2 races rated that day were :- 16:05 1,Rosairlie 20 31.72 13.00 2,Nashville 8 3,My Destination 40 79.00 49.00 4,Rocktherunway 3RD 12 5,Pearl Spice 3 F 6,Getabuzz 14 7,Medieval Bishop 25 8,Hit The Jackpot 25 51.57 3.80 =============================================================================================== 9,Flashman 2ND 7 2ND F 10,Body Language 8 JT 3RD/4TH F 11,Tartan Jura 25 35 20 12,Recession Proof 16 13,Porcini N/R 14,Eagle Rock 1ST 8 JT 3RD/4TH F 15,Hawk Mountain 10 5TH F 16,Sula Two 16 31.00 4.80 FONTWELL PARK 17:20 1,Chestnut Ben 1ST 2 F 2,Celtic Charlie 25 39 41 3,Wak A Turtle 3RD 7 4TH F 4,Osmosia 2ND 11 5TH F 5,Novikov 5 2ND F =================================================================================================== 6,The Grey One 20 24.76 18.00 7,Safe Investment 2.75 2ND F 8,She's Humble 14 17.68 8.00 .......................................................................................... RATINGS are not "easy" to weigh up as to the "best" betting strategy.......as seasons progress, then different STRATEGIES have to be adopted for TURF/NH/AW........ Generally the "system" will indicate "VALUE" , for BACKS and LAYS, using RANK positions compared to odds etc. Due to personal circumstances have had to shelve it the last couple years, and unlikely will be in a position to use it til NEW YEAR. It takes a great deal of energy to use it, and , as I am a full-time carer, recovering from major op last year, then it is difficult to operate it efficiently due to my energy levels being low, and time disrupted through caring duties. I still plan to use it in JANUARY onwards, as BETTING STRATEGIES are clear after analysing ratings results, and by then I a hoping my fitness levels are up..............though the caring duties may well cause havoc to plans.  COSMIC HALO was a bit odd in market movements.....as was a big drifter ....out to 90s BF, then near off money did come to shift odds from 50-1 SP to 33-1 SP.......though as already had it at 55s and 90s BF , then I never even noticed the shortening of odds until after the race  .Time for kippppppppp... GL with bets. |
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"FORM" ......If you mean race results in terms of RACE RECORD...YES.
If you mean ....did horse run well in going.....NO. Many factors used in ratings.....though GOING is always the KEY FACTOR for certain subjective decisions made when rating a race. Better get some sleep! G M the nooooooooooooooooooooooo |
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Realistically, horses drift for a number of reasons the same way that they get backed in, and to blindly ignore such events is negligent. Obviously in some cases these are intertwined.
The other night there was a pacer that was to go around with a price opening 21 dollars. It went off at an SP of 2.80. Now you can imagine that every other horse in the race drifted plenty, and there was a massive plunge on this horse. If this was in the formbook, it simply wouldn't have opened up at 21.00 now would it. This was a first starter, so more exaggerated, but did have trials under his belt for the form students. While this is a massive example of why horses drift through no fault of their own, it does show that simple form systems really don't provide enough information. It doesn't show in the formbook the temperament of the horse. The coat of the horse on race day. It doesn't show a horses training schedule, feed pattern, training times. So when a horse that is usually well mannered and relaxed in the mounting yard, shows up agitated, coat a little wooly, sweating up, then you can throw the formbook out the window because this is the first time it has been presented in such a state, and the results of the horse previous really don't add up to knowing anything about what it will do. You know the ability of the horse, but using up excess energy, lowers race performance. Hence, a drift in the odds. In the UK, it is legal to run your horse dead so really that decision may affect the odds, considering they are doing it for a reason. There are many many reasons why a horse will drift in the market. Very few of these reasons you will find in the formbook no matter how detailed it is unless it is a private formbook of a well informed race goer. There are also different levels of drift. There is the no hoper drift where it is already known the horse won't be allowed to win. There is the mild sweat up drift, where the horse has been judged to present poorly at which point people become layers. There is the "I have a lot of money to fool the traders and take their money" drift. With each kind of drift, the line moves on what is value. The no hoper drift, could go out to 1000/1 and still be a good lay. The slightly agitated horse that was pushed from 10-15 may have a line closer to 12.50 (for example) but was pushed too far by the sheep. The ones that got on early well done, the ones that followed later, may have been better backing. Point being, there is no hard and fast rule about horses that drift or shorten. There can be many reasons. Just because it is drifting doesn't mean it can't win, but it probably does mean that its chances are less than what the formbook suggests. There are 2 reasons why most of the drift happens on the day. 1. Because there is more money to soak up from running a good horse with well hidden talents. 2. Because the presentation of the horses on the day, shows where they are at in their campaign and if they are aimed at this race, need the run or really just unhappy to be there. |
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BJT and Ironman - you clearly know your stuff and I enjoyed reading your info. Thanks!
BJT - Thanks for taking the time to explain about drifters, it was really helpful. Much appreciated! There was a lot of stuff to take in so I plan on reading it all again. I have a question for you... Is it known then that some horses aren't gonna win like it's fixed??? So, if this was the case the insiders would be laying like crazy causing the drift. |
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In the UK, it is legal to run your horse dead
Is that true ??????? You're kidding, I hope. That is absolutely staggering if it's true. Why would anyone bet on races where you don't even have to LOOK as if you're trying? That would mean that it would be possible to blatantly rig races with impunity. Please tell me this isn't true. |
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You are on "dangerous ground" re some of comments above BJT.......
Stirring the hornets nest may end up with you being stung Topic may be deleted if another separate thread started............ |
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