Would you pay for a system that always won?

i dont think tossing one coin, 2 coins or 3 or 100coins for that matter has an impact on the number of heads and tails coming to parity either counted together or individually. or am i missing something?

Yeah henok, sequentially tossing n coins in the manner described is equivalent to an n-dimensional random walk.
In 1 and 2 dimensions the probability of returning to the origin at some point is 1, in 3 dimensions it is 0.34, see table here.
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/PolyasRandomWalkConstants.html.

The "free bet " system . Does have money in it if you have the patience to apply - but some bookies close you down quickly , I remember laddies going to 12's the field when 10s on here up to £25 - I got the £25 on laid here to equalise ...though some other exchanges have better commission...horse won and they closed my account.  For the british based bookies best to back the free bet on 14/1+ again on fairly big race ( handicap ) easy to get 70% of free bet as profit and mostly BOG too. Anyone considdering this might be worth waiting for Cheltenham in March.

not forgetting the idea is to try and bust out of the bookie and win on the exchange

scotbet is noe 4 onbooard

Betting on horses at 12s probably will get you shut down. That was why I suggested using the free bets to make small but guaranteed wins at short odds of 2/1 or so. Over time, you'll make almost as much that way, but you will be pretty much certain to get the money, and won't have to sweat about whether the bookies will pay up.    Clearly, it's best of all if you lose the money at the bookies and make it straight back on BF - no risk of not being paid out then. Even with 12s shots, though, you can't rely on them not winning all of the time.

Just on the possibility of other threads, I seem to remember a poster called Dangermouse became quite famous on gambling forums for doing this type of scheme. I didn't get the idea from him (don't think it's very hard to come up with yourself), but I seem to remember his posts were quite interesting. Not sure you could still do as much of it as he did - as I recall, he carried on getting free bets for several years.

Personally I think free betting on 2/1 shots are a waste of time .  I'd be more inclined to think you'd get shut down for not clearing your cookies . It's a massive assumption that over time you'll make as much ... get in quick and get out quick. Also remember there are other places with lower commission.

Iprefertolay - basic stuff - so I wouldn't pay or indeed charge people if I advised them myself ( which I have done numerous times over )

Iprefertolay - basic stuff - so I wouldn't pay or indeed charge people if I advised them myself ( which I have done numerous times over )

Don't quite understand that bit, could you rephrase that?

Joined:
28 May 11
| Topic/replies: 2,310 | Blogger: TheInvestor2's blog
Yeah henok, sequentially tossing n coins in the manner described is equivalent to an n-dimensional random walk.
In 1 and 2 dimensions the probability of returning to the origin at some point is 1, in 3 dimensions it is 0.34, see table here.
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/PolyasRandomWalkConstants.html.



Thanks for that investor - it's all much clearer now!

Oct 24, 2013 -- 5:29PM, scotbet wrote:

not forgetting the idea is to try and bust out of the bookie and win on the exchange

So wouldn't the system then be to simply lay the ones you know are going to lose, for any amount you want?

BJT the system of maximising as much of the free bet as possible revolves around a combo of price ( higher being desirable ) and closest match with exchange.

So in answering your question ....you don't know it's going to lose .. but you do know if you believe in an efficient price market a 12/1 chance is less likely to win than a 2/1 chance.

But that doesn't really answer it at all.  You aren't doing anything at all different except you are exposing more of your bank.
A win ties up a much larger proportion of your bank, and you can't withdraw it until you meet the turnover requirements.  Then 2 in a row?  How big is your bank?

And if you are waiting around for 20 dollar free bets with no turnover requirements, just how poor are you ****s?

And even more so, if you are stalking the forum, trying to drum up business to advise somebody, so you can take 10% of his 20 bucks, how fcuking poor are you?

Don't really need to say any more, than to point out your opinion that "the idea is to bust out of the bookie and win on betfair".  People that could do that wouldn't be browsing the forum ready to hand over 2 bucks for somebody to teach them how to make 20 bucks every few months.

And for the record, there are plenty of 12/1 horses with a greater chance of winning than the 2/1 horse in their race.

BJT me stalking the forum .where exactly did you get that from?

In fairness your question was silly - and I should have known better to reply

Read my post I said BRITISH based bookies

I can only assume your mixing me up with someone else

'And for the record, there are plenty of 12/1 horses with a greater chance of winning than the 2/1 horse in their race.

BJT...........Could you elaborate a little? are you able to find such a horse regularly?  bold statement unless you had inside information on a regular basis.

scot.  I was talking about the people talking this up so much

Harry.  Just because 12/1 horses average winning every 13 races, doesn't mean for a second that every 12/1 horse has a 7.7% chance of winning.
Some 12/1 horses should be 50/1.  Some should be evens.  Some 2/1 horses should be 20/1, some should be 1.20.

Personally I think free betting on 2/1 shots are a waste of time .  I'd be more inclined to think you'd get shut down for not clearing your cookies . It's a massive assumption that over time you'll make as much ... get in quick and get out quick. Also remember there are other places with lower commission.


Well assuming you're not bringing any real level of skill to this (and if you are, you're probably well past the point where you're messing around with free bets), a 12/1 shot and a 2/1 shot ought to be bringing in similar returns over time. I was suggesting that, when it came to redeeming the free bets, it made sense to lay them back here for a smaller amount and take a smaller but fixed profit on every one, rather than betting outright, with all the inconsistency that was implied there.

And honestly, 12/1 shots can go in. If you win on a 12/1 shot, the bookies will definitely be having a look at you. With a 2/1 shot, that's highly unlikely - to the bookie, you'll seem like just another mug punter.

That aside, whether you bet outright at the end or hedge is pretty much irrelevant. The crucial bit is getting yourself through the wagering requirements while actually only risking a fraction of the money. That's 'the system'. The bit at the end, where you choose what to do with the free bet (or whatever), is entirely up to you.

Harry22 - You will get no elaboration from BJT

It's a fact betting at bigger prices on the FREE BETS yields more return ... that's my point

Lord Bobbin ... ... I've only talked about the FREE BETS not the WAGERING REQUIREMENT and on BRITISH BASED BOOKMAKERS.  Maximising cash is all about big prices/close match tactics

Of course the WAGERING REQUIREMENT it's all small prices/close match

However , I disagree that the wagering requirement is "the system" as you put it , for me it's only part of the system  , also I wouldn't necessarily lay on here too

Seems like this system has a bit of confusion amongst its users.  Doesn't appear systematic to me, considering some of you don't even lay off.
Seriously, this system is:
The bookies offer free bets as an incentive to be a customer.  Do the bare minimum to get it.  Bet it on whatever you like.  Don't chase the loss.


How you gooses are still going on about it trying to explain it to each other is beyond my comprehension.  All the plankton  arguing amongst themselves hanging around for another handout of 20 bucks that they can then feed to the sharks.  rotflmfao

Well betting on the free bets yields more return, but dramatically increases the chances the bookies will take action against you.

BJT - See you're still here!  You seem to be wasting a lot of time with the 'plankton'. Haven't you anything better to do with your important time?

Lord Bobbin ... Not sure about this ( bigger prices = greater chances of being gubbed ) it sounds logically but not in my experience has this happened - not clearing cookies and taking out of lines prices will also expose more too. Besides - in my experience when I did this for others - their sole focus was in and out as quick as possible - most weren't interested in retaining a long term bookmaker account.

It's possible to lay 2/1 chance AT that price on here
but laying 12/1 usually entails laying somewhere between
14/1 and 20/1 heavily reducing your profit margin overall.
It's a no brainer.

For once I agree with ken on that point, also backing a winning selection at say 12/1 with the bookie may well see your account getting closed.
Better to keep to short prices.

Quite often that's the case, Ken, but not always. You frequently have to wait until the minutes before the race goes off before some of the longer odds horses come in sufficiently. At the time of writing (4.17), Chemistry Maser in the 4.35 at Wincanton is 12.5 on here and 11/1 on B365 - I'm sure I could pick out closer prices on long horses if I wait through a number of races, or wait until 2 minutes before the off.  You do have to be a bit more patient to get a close price on longer horses.   The simple rule is, if you don't find a horse who's sufficiently closely priced, you wait until the next day. Nothing forcing you to take a price.


Scot - I guess the long-odds thing is just a matter of personal preference. As I said, though, winning on an 8/1 shot with Sportingbet made them highly suspicious, and I ended up having my free bet taken off me. Personally I wouldn't be wanting to take the chance. I guess it does mean you're likely to lose your money with the bookies more quickly, though, which is certainly a bonus.

It is possible although rare to lay on here but back with the bookie at higher odds, well before the off.
The back must be placed first as the price will disappear.
The selection is determined on discrepency of prices, preferably shortish ones.

BJT 26 Oct 13 05:26
scot.  I was talking about the people talking this up so much

Harry.  Just because 12/1 horses average winning every 13 races, doesn't mean for a second that every 12/1 horse has a 7.7% chance of winning.
Some 12/1 horses should be 50/1.  Some should be evens.  Some 2/1 horses should be 20/1, some should be 1.20.

Can't really argue with that but it is 2/1 as it hasn't shown any form to suggest it is a 1.2 shot...unless you are the trainer or connected to the yard and you know you have a frankel under wraps it makes no difference to the average punter that these prices are not correct.  so are you able to identify such a horse without inside info??

Great thread! Phew! I've finally caught up at last!

scotbet - You've mentioned cookies on here a few times saying that they could get you closed down.

How much can the bookies actually learn about you from a cookie???

There are various ways your account can be closed.
I winning on your account.
2 Always getting best price.
3.Alarm bells ring when big priced winners go in.

3

Sheppy, there're quite a few different ways bookies use to identify and track players. Cookies are one way (IP addresses are another), so I suspect that deleting your cookies means you'll sometimes fly under their radar a bit more.

Having said that, if you're always logging in using the same account, the bookies will generally already have enough info on you to decide whether you're 'their kind of punter' or not. In that case, deleting your cookies wouldn't usually help you. On the other hand, if you're creating a new account and claiming not to have been with them before, it would probably help if you delete your cookies first, as otherwise the bookies may be able to tell from the cookie that you have a past history with them.

Yesterday I bet a horse at 12/1 at billys  and laid here 13.0 -  i've done this many many times over

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense. I always log in using the same account. I don't arb much but do tend to play around with free bets etc.

I'm still curious of the whole cookie thing though???

I want to know exactly what info the bookies can get from it?

Does the cookie tell them what sites I'm looking at etc?

So in baby language it'd look something like this...

"User has just gone on Betfair and is now looking at the 3.50 @ Aintree..."

sheppy look up iesnare

Lord I've heard so many horror stories at sport ingbet not a D rated company for nothing

Thanks scotbet. I've just looked it up. There's so much to read, I'll have to digest it over time.

Cookies aren't really like that Sheppy. They're only tiny files with a very small amount of info in them. They're basically used so that sites can see how often you access their site, and whether you have any preferences as to how you want the site to be customised etc. They certainly can't use them to store the details of your bets, or anything like that.  Think of cookies as being like your computer waving an ID card. Almost every site you go on will store some sort of cookie on your computer, so there's nothing really to worry about.

Just, if you're trying to pass yourself off as somebody who's never had an account with a site before, a cookie may signal to the site that you're lying. That's why you'd delete them.

Thanks LB you've made me feel a lot better. You've put it very clearly which I need cos I'm no computer whizz kid!

I noticed that Paddy's make a big deal of it, saying loads about cookies. There's just too much to read and take in! It really scared the crap out of me and was worried about putting a bet on!

Many years ago I used some kind of cookie cleaner and I noticed that the sites didn't remember my details, so I had to type in my user name/password etc. This made me realise what a cookie did.

Thanks again!

When this system came to prominence a few years back - folk had been sharing each others computer - innocently not knowing that might be not allowed and I know of a couple of folk that had lots of problems over this very issue whilst trying to collect.

As I said, though, winning on an 8/1 shot with Sportingbet made them highly suspicious, and I ended up having my free bet taken off me.

When this system came to prominence a few years back - folk had been sharing each others computer - innocently not knowing that might be not allowed and I know of a couple of folk that had lots of problems over this very issue whilst trying to collect.


And here we go.  The truth starting to finally come out.

Lucky it has been guaranteed.  So when somebody comes along and uses a 50 pound free bet on a 20/1 shot that gets up, they lose 1000 on BF, bookie takes their free bet off them for free bet abuse, they know where to turn to get their money back.

Oh dear... Poor little BJT...  You really are determined to quash this, even though there are now a bunch of users on here confirming that they do similar systems, and that they work.  No 'truth starting to come out'. SB did give me the winnings, but the free bet that I had sitting on my account was removed. No loss, but I did have my future use of a free bet taken off me.

I have said numerous times on this thread that this is a pretty much flawless system, and about the only thing that can go wrong is that the bookie reneges on your bet. If you stick to 2/1 or 3/1 shots, this is unlikely to happen, since there's little they would have to be suspicious or annoyed about - although, obviously, if you've had previous accounts with them, and are only pretending to be new, they'll probably withdraw the offer.

So, stick to my guidelines and there's very little chance indeed that the system will go wrong - there is a very small chance, still, hence my figure of 95% rather than 100%.   But if you stick to 2/1 shots, what's the worst that can happen? Generally, they'll take the free bet off you before you've had a chance to use it, in which case you would only lose the money spent trying to get to the free bet in the first place. With Sporting, a £50 bet needed to be placed before getting the freebie. Had I been doing the system in this case (this incident actually happened before I started using free bets in this way), I might have lost £3 or so on the initial £50 bet. And that would have been it. £3...

It's possible SB could have refused to give me the winnings at all. That's very unlikely, since it gets them into all sorts of potential problems- generally speaking, if bookies are suspicious about you but have no proof, they pay up and then close your account, unless they're on the line for a huge sum.   Had SB refused to pay up, I would have lost however much my lay was. On a 2/1 shot, you'd be looking at a loss of around £100. Painful, but no big deal.

As I've said, stick to shorties, and the chances that a new user will have their bets left unpaid by a bookies are tiny. Even if the 5% chance happens, and they don't pay out, you'll only be £100 or so down. There are several hundred pounds available to new users in fairly simple free bets, so you're almost certain to end very much in profit, despite one setback.  And that one setback won't happen if you stick to short-priced horses.

Nothing for a 'big fish' like you to see here, BJT.  Jog on, old bean.

kenilworth
     18 Oct 13 14:49   









The simple answer to the 'problem' is just to
get your free bet on, going for a fancied
horse, if it wins, draw, end of. If it loses
also end of. Backing, say a 2/1 chance, assuming
it's a true 2/1 chance, you will break even twice,
win £100 once, every 3 picks. In theory that is!
If anyone sees that as feasible, GL, but I don't
think it will work in reality.

Lb, I think was I who suggested sticking to the shorties.

Well actually Ken, if go back to the 13th, and certainly back to the 15th, Iprefertolay and I were both stressing then that winning on long-shots would bring you to the attention of the bookies, and that that was to be avoided..

That was at least three days before your post!   Back over the net to you... 

Oct 28, 2013 -- 9:24AM, LordBobbin wrote:

Oh dear... Poor little BJT...  You really are determined to quash this, even though there are now a bunch of users on here confirming that they do similar systems, and that they work.  No 'truth starting to come out'. SB did give me the winnings, but the free bet that I had sitting on my account was removed. No loss, but I did have my future use of a free bet taken off me.I have said numerous times on this thread that this is a pretty much flawless system, and about the only thing that can go wrong is that the bookie reneges on your bet. If you stick to 2/1 or 3/1 shots, this is unlikely to happen, since there's little they would have to be suspicious or annoyed about - although, obviously, if you've had previous accounts with them, and are only pretending to be new, they'll probably withdraw the offer. So, stick to my guidelines and there's very little chance indeed that the system will go wrong - there is a very small chance, still, hence my figure of 95% rather than 100%.   But if you stick to 2/1 shots, what's the worst that can happen? Generally, they'll take the free bet off you before you've had a chance to use it, in which case you would only lose the money spent trying to get to the free bet in the first place. With Sporting, a £50 bet needed to be placed before getting the freebie. Had I been doing the system in this case (this incident actually happened before I started using free bets in this way), I might have lost £3 or so on the initial £50 bet. And that would have been it. £3... It's possible SB could have refused to give me the winnings at all. That's very unlikely, since it gets them into all sorts of potential problems- generally speaking, if bookies are suspicious about you but have no proof, they pay up and then close your account, unless they're on the line for a huge sum.   Had SB refused to pay up, I would have lost however much my lay was. On a 2/1 shot, you'd be looking at a loss of around £100. Painful, but no big deal.As I've said, stick to shorties, and the chances that a new user will have their bets left unpaid by a bookies are tiny. Even if the 5% chance happens, and they don't pay out, you'll only be £100 or so down. There are several hundred pounds available to new users in fairly simple free bets, so you're almost certain to end very much in profit, despite one setback.  And that one setback won't happen if you stick to short-priced horses.Nothing for a 'big fish' like you to see here, BJT.  Jog on, old bean.

There is a massive difference between:
"This system always wins" and "I guarantee it"

to

"Pretty much flawless", "you'd be looking at a loss of around 100.  Painful, but no big deal."



You are fighting a losing battle...

Absolutely no sense betting your free bet on a shortie - it's really so straightforward.

Every £50 free bet yields over £12.50 extra betting 12/1 as opposed 2/1


I just don't buy stick to a shortie and the chances are tiny - and it won't happen if it's a shortie

THERE IS  NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT 12/1s PICKS PLACES YOUR BETS AT GREATER RISK OF NON PAYMENT


On bookies that not A rated and / or NON UK  I would underlay - simples also - hoping to bust out again and here you
do have to cake lower odds just in case they limit you . It's research first , bet 2nd.

Seriously are Willies going to not pay out on a 12/1 winner ?   The newspapers would have a field day

Really get a grip here

And for the record there is nothing wrong with betting 2/1 as free bets but aren't maximising your returns.


This thread should be called here's a system I prefer to do and it should win betting 2/1 shots as your free bets.

I'm not fighting a losing battle at all BJT. I think you might have lost the evolutionary battle with my bath-mat, though.

What I'm doing is allowing for the very tiny possibility that the bookies could refuse to pay you. I stress, that's *never* happened to me. I did have my future free bet withdrawn by Sportingbet. But they did give me my winnings on the qualifying bet at 8/1. Had my qualifying bet been on a 2/1 shot instead, I doubt they would have batted an eyelid.

I stress. If you are a new user, and you bet on 2/1 or 3/1 shots, there is NO CHANCE the bookies won't pay out. There would be NO REASON for them to think that you're either suspect or a shrewdie.

LB,kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 12544 12 Oct 13 18:33   


iprefertolay, the sceptics haven't gone quiet because
of LB's post. Actually there is no need to go through
all that rigmarole, suffice to jut take your free bet,
if it wins, you collect, if it lose it's no bet, no loss


LB, I can't be going through all those posts, but if you claim
a first, I am quite happy to let you have it. My view was, keep
it simple, betting perhaps a 2/1, no complicated 'greening up'
win once, lose twice, collect the profit from the winner, move
on etc, etc. If your ideas were better than that, I accept. GL.



Bookmaker have you hooked with the bait, exactly what
he was aiming for.

kenilworth
     18 Oct 13 14:49   









The simple answer to the 'problem' is just to
get your free bet on, going for a fancied
horse, if it wins, draw, end of. If it loses
also end of. Backing, say a 2/1 chance, assuming
it's a true 2/1 chance, you will break even twice,
win £100 once, every 3 picks. In theory that is!
If anyone sees that as feasible, GL, but I don't
think it will work in reality.

Lb, I think was I who suggested sticking to the shorties.
==========================================================================

Your post K above was just not accurate re posts to thread.

You wanted to take the "credit" for something which you were not the first to suggest........

It was not a case re ideas being better.....just the fact that you were appearing to take credit for posting the "idea" first......

Other than that your posts have been "fair" and "reasonable".............but your "mistake" was " Lb, I think was I who suggested sticking to the shorties".

LordBoobin and I have always stated stick to shortish prices please read earlier posts.
As for BJTs accusatoin that we the believers (several) fight amongst ourselves is ludicrous.
When BJTs offers a power cut to blow the system in a 5 second window, well im not commenting on that.

I have bet with nearly all your UK bookmakers.  From odds on to 50/1.  The result is always the same.  The odds don't matter.  If you give any impression at all that you are not a complete moron, then they cut you straight off.

So while yes, you like to think that you know how the bookies operate, I can assure you you have no idea.  To guarantee something completely out of your control is just screaming desperation.

I have bet free bets.  I have bet deposit bonuses.  The result is always a siht fight to get your money out of them.  Tell people different all you like, UK bookies are scum, gutless, shifty operators.

Yes most will pay, but they don't make it easy.

The best fight I had was after getting a 1500 deposit bonus and needing to turnover 30k with them to be able to withdraw it.  Ended up with 15k in the account and limited to 20 dollar bets with about 26k left to turnover.
Not only did they make it impossible to get my bonus, but they made it damn hard to get the money out of them.

Some will ban you after a week, some after 2 bets.  Either way, there is no guarantee what they will do unless you are an absolute mug, in which case they will obviously keep throwing free bets at you to get you to bet as much of your mug money with them as possible.

The only thing funnier in this thread than the gooses trying to show how smart they are by being offered free bets is the one trying to charge people to show them how to do it.



Stick 30k in your bank, arb through the bookies.  You will easily make 10 grand inside a month before losing all accounts.  Much more than you will make in 10 years hanging around for free bets....

WTF are you on about BJT.     30K????? If you stick 30K in your account, yeah, of course you're going to seem like somebody they'll want to watch. How many small-timers have £30K to drop with the bookies???

I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about an average person sticking in a couple of hundred, and then making a few £50 bets at short odds - replicating this across several different bookies will allow them to assemble several hundred in profits. As I said on an earlier thread, you might typically end up with the following after five bets and a freebie:

Race 1          7/2 Lost £50
Race 2          2/1 Won £100
Race 3          4/1 Lost £50
Race 4          9/5 Lost £50
Race 5          1/1 Won £50
Race 6 (Bonus)  4/1 Lost Free Bet


You're trying to tell me the bookies will look at that and mark you out as a shrewdie? Obviously not. That's just the typical account of a typical punter. And the bookies will believe you're going to lose money with them once the free bets are out of the way.

I stress, this isn't a system for big punters. It's for newbies on average wages who want to start with a few hundred pretty much guaranteed.

I never said to put 30k in your betting account.  I said stick 30k in your bank to gamble with.  You would need some in BF right?  You do know what arbing is I imagine?  Heard of it?


Either way, whether you are somebody they need to watch or not, you will still make more than 10 years worth of free bets in a month by doing it.

And yes, with a return of 100%, you would certainly be on their radar.  They are banning anybody returning more than 90%.  And you can't just stick odds up with bets and think it means anything.  The relevance isn't on the odds of the horse, it is on the odds the competition are offering.

BJT, you are clearly not a newbie but a giant in the betting world and the system is not aimed for you.
Im sure newbies would love to make several hundred pounds practically risk free.

If you was a newbie and received a free bet would you>

a) use the free bet to punt on something and hope it wins.
b) tell the bookie under no circumstances ever to offer you free bets again.
c) Utilize the free bet to guarantee profit.

Heh?  You really haven't understood a word of this, have you...  I don't actually know why you're still here. You either aren't interested in reading about this, or lack the brains to understand it.

Of course you could make more (until they closed you down) by arbing £30K. But this system wouldn't be of interest to somebody who already had 300K. It's aimed at people who have a few hundred (that they can't really afford to lose), and are interested in turning that into a few hundred more.

I assure you, you wouldn't get closed down for the above bets, if you were a small-timer betting £50 a time. I've been in similar situations myself, and have never had those bookies being the least bit suspicious of me. The above account would be fairly typical of a normal bettor, up until the point at which they started chasing. Sometimes I'm slightly down with the bookies after the first few bets. Sometimes slightly up. It doesn't matter. If you won several in a row, or were showing profits over a number of weeks, they might take notice. Otherwise..

'And you can't just stick odds up with bets and think it means anything.  The relevance isn't on the odds of the horse, it is on the odds the competition are offering.'

What?? I'm using the odds as an example of what the bookies are seeing when they decide whether they should be suspicious of you or not. A string of bets on favourites with varying degrees of success won't get you pegged as a shrewdie - not unless you're achieving that over a decent period.

All the system requires is that you take random odds at your selected bookie, and match them up as closely as possible to prices on BF. You restrict yourself to ones where the prices match up very closely. You don't need to get prices so good that you're making a profit overall on that specific bet, since you're not arbing as such. (It's the free bets that make you the money - the 'arbing' aspect of it actually loses you a small amount.)

That was obviously aimed at BJT, not iprefertolay...

Oh yeah, and on the third line, I obviously meant to say 30K rather than 300K...

iprefertolay   






  29 Oct 13 17:34 
Joined:


  16 Sep 02 
    | Topic/replies: 98  | Blogger: iprefertolay's blog   



BJT, you are clearly not a newbie but a giant in the betting world and the system is not aimed for you.
Im sure newbies would love to make several hundred pounds practically risk free.

If you was a newbie and received a free bet would you>

a) use the free bet to punt on something and hope it wins.   Believe it or not this would be in the majority - not everyone is trying to "guarantee
" profits
b) tell the bookie under no circumstances ever to offer you free bets again.
c) Utilize the free bet to guarantee profit.   And here i'd be replacing the word guarantee with maximising and in these instances betting on the bigger prices

ALSO I WOULDN'T CHARGE FOR THIS SIMPLE SYSTEM FULL STOP.

rotflmfao.  Unsure as to why you are still trying to explain it all to me when I called out exactly what it was at the start of the thread.

The 2 obvious points here are:
1.  You seem to feel you are highly intelligent for knowing how to put on a free bet.
2.  You don't seem to be able to get the right answer to the question of why bookies don't shut you down, when their whole business goal is to only have mugs on their books.

Punching well above your weight, and you are so stupid you don't even understand that.


What is it you claim I don't understand?  Seriously.  You are hedging a free bet.  That is it.  You aren't doing anything new, and aren't doing anything that thousands aren't doing every day, and billions across the world on different ventures are doing daily.
Your 30 posts with 300 words in each trying to explain it and you couldn't simply say "hedge your bet"..?  I have been trading on here for a decade, and you want to try and lecture me when you don't even know what "hedge your bet" means?

You seriously think hedging your bets is that far above anybodies intelligence level that you need to devote so much trying to explain it?

Nothing wrong with your opinion of yourself anyway.  At least, not from where you sit....

No. No. No. No. No. No.  The essential part of the system (my system, this is - I can't speak for iptl's) isn't anything at all to do with the sodding free bets themselves. Once you've got to the point of having received the free bet, what you do with it is up to you. (A few of us may argue over whether it's better to play the free bets as long or short odds, or whether it's better to play them outright, or hedge in order to take them in smaller but almost guaranteed installments, but those arguments are pretty much irrelevant.)

The key to the system is that you earn the free bets despite having risked only very small amounts of money on the previous qualifying bets. It's the qualifying bets that you're hedging. Rather than placing five £50 qualifying bets, and risking losing £250, or whatever, you're hedging the five qualifying bets and then taking a fairly fixed £3 loss (or whatever) on each one. You then receive a free £50 bet, and when you cash in on that, you make back the £15 loss and more besides. Do that at a string of different bookies, and you're almost guaranteed to make several hundred - the bookies don't close you down, because there's nothing in your dealings with them to suggest that you're anything other than an average punter with an average record.

It's not big money. And I never said it was original, or that you needed to be intelligent to do it. However, it is an almost guaranteed way of turning free bets into real cash. A lot of newbie punters wouldn't know that, and would fritter away their free bets on shots that generally don't come in. For them, it might be useful to know there's another way.

The only reason I keep writing hundreds of words, is because you keep rubbishing the idea, having got completely the wrong end of the stick for the 10 millionth time. How many different takes have you had on this now??   You stop shoe-horning yourself in, and I'll stop writing 300 word responses to you.

Lord Bobbin

This is the bit I don't get with you - you say - for which I totally agree with

"The key to the system is that you earn the free bets despite having risked only very small amounts of money on the previous qualifying bets."

Having got into this position why would you want to frizzle away even more money by firing it on 2/1 chances? Surely at this stage you want

to get as much back on your qualifying losses as possible and thus maximising your profits - also by betting bigger prices you lessen the

chances of winning on the bookie - which is desirable in this system.

BJT

You want your cake and eat it mate - seriously here

You quite rightly state that a 6/1 is expected to win no more than 1 in 6

But when I quote a 12/1 bet on the free bet system ..... hey wait a minute it might be an evens chance according to you. Noted and understood.

Can the 6/1 chance earlier in the thread not be an evens chance to? Or does it depend on who is saying it?  Explain

Both the 6/1 and 12/1 could be an evens shot.......you will only find out once it has won by 10 length though

rotflmfao

Oct 29, 2013 -- 1:08PM, LordBobbin wrote:

No. No. No. No. No. No.  The essential part of the system (my system, this is - I can't speak for iptl's) isn't anything at all to do with the sodding free bets themselves. Once you've got to the point of having received the free bet, what you do with it is up to you. (A few of us may argue over whether it's better to play the free bets as long or short odds, or whether it's better to play them outright, or hedge in order to take them in smaller but almost guaranteed installments, but those arguments are pretty much irrelevant.)The key to the system is that you earn the free bets despite having risked only very small amounts of money on the previous qualifying bets. It's the qualifying bets that you're hedging. Rather than placing five £50 qualifying bets, and risking losing £250, or whatever, you're hedging the five qualifying bets and then taking a fairly fixed £3 loss (or whatever) on each one. You then receive a free £50 bet, and when you cash in on that, you make back the £15 loss and more besides. Do that at a string of different bookies, and you're almost guaranteed to make several hundred - the bookies don't close you down, because there's nothing in your dealings with them to suggest that you're anything other than an average punter with an average record. It's not big money. And I never said it was original, or that you needed to be intelligent to do it. However, it is an almost guaranteed way of turning free bets into real cash. A lot of newbie punters wouldn't know that, and would fritter away their free bets on shots that generally don't come in. For them, it might be useful to know there's another way.The only reason I keep writing hundreds of words, is because you keep rubbishing the idea, having got completely the wrong end of the stick for the 10 millionth time. How many different takes have you had on this now??   You stop shoe-horning yourself in, and I'll stop writing 300 word responses to you.

No. No. No. No. No. No.  The essential part of the system (my system, this is - I can't speak for iptl's)
Say what?  You can't speak for iptl?  So what the fcuk are you trying to do.  You have been in here defending him the whole thread, arguing his points.  Speaking for him.

The system here, that never loses, that is guaranteed to win, every time, is about hedging free bets.

I couldn't give a flying fcuk how you go about using free bets.  The system (do you know what a system is?) is the one that has been discussed the whole thread. 
The simple fact is, the 3 of you defending this "system" are arguing how you all do it differently.

Well guess what simpletons, it isn't the same fcuking system then is it.  If you do things differently, you aren't all talking about the same thing.

You can't speak for iptl?  So don't.

Oct 29, 2013 -- 1:48PM, scotbet wrote:

BJTYou want your cake and eat it mate - seriously hereYou quite rightly state that a 6/1 is expected to win no more than 1 in 6But when I quote a 12/1 bet on the free bet system ..... hey wait a minute it might be an evens chance according to you. Noted and understood.Can the 6/1 chance earlier in the thread not be an evens chance to? Or does it depend on who is saying it?  Explain

You are asking the wrong question, but you are close, and correct at the same time.

Where you went wrong is in this part:
Can the 6/1 chance earlier in the thread not be an evens chance to?

You really needed to follow the theme of your questioning more precisely.

The point was that the bettor did not have an opinion on the price except that the law of averages should see it getting home.

Somebody very good at pricing up horses chances may have indeed had that horse as an even money chance, and bet accordingly.  The bettor mentioned previously, did not have that same view.
So yes, the person with the opinion could quite rightly expected a 50% chance of winning, while they other without an opinion on the specific horse could really expect nothing better than running to the odds that were taken rounded to a 100% market.

BJT it wins attack me not the lord.
You chose c) maximsing profit enough said....... it fcikng wins

BJT, I haven't a clue what system iptl uses. Iptl has never actually outlined his system on this thread, as far as I'm aware. I'm the one who's been giving concrete examples, and still you've been attacking my posts. I know from countless bets that this system does work, and also know that it's easily provable by anyone with a calculator.

The general concept that I'm really defending here is the idea that you can use the free bets to get guaranteed cash. I was assuming that Iptl's system would follow similar lines to mine, since the free bets were clearly a relevant part of what he was hinting at - general arbing wouldn't require free bets at all.

For the sake of argument, *my* system involves getting through the wagering requirements for each offer by backing at the bookies, and then laying them back again on BF - but only when the odds are reasonably close - say 3/1 vs 4.1-4.2 or something. That allows you to meet the wagering requirements having only risked a tiny sum of money. You then have a free bet which you can use (in whichever way you want - my preference is for taking a small but certain profit on each free bet, rather than letting the odds pay out over time) to leave you significantly in profit overall. You play through the free bet offers at the big names, and you should soon have several hundred. For newbies, that's quite a nice deal, and it should also show them that, if you blindly play favourites, you'll lose money overall. Again, not a bad lesson for a newbie.

Scott, on the system that I've used, playing longer odds shots would make more, but only a bit more over time. You've also got to put more aside if you're laying back long shots, whereas doing it with shorter prices means you only need to deposit a few hundred with the bookie, and a similar sum with BF.

Also, perhaps I'm wrong to think this, but I am suspicious of bookies closing you down. I appreciate that a 10/1 shot will typically lose most of the time (well, around 90.9% of the time, on average!), but that still leaves you that 9.1% chance that it will win. If you've got £50 on at 10/1, and it wins, there's always the chance the bookies will try and find a reason for not paying out. And that could be very painful. Do it with 2/1 shots, on the other hand, and you won't lose much even in the absolute worst case scenario - which is extremely unlikely to happen in any event, if you're playing favourites.

Low outlay. Low risk. That's sort of the point of a free bets system as I see it. Hence my sticking to shorties. I'm assuming that the people doing this would have no ideas when it came to calculating value, and would just be betting blindly, so the argument over true price vs market price would have no relevance to them.

Must be a lot of down time with this system.  You seem to do a lot of just random siht dribbling.

Need to find yourself some more bookies so you can get something to eat next month....

See you've finally run out of constructive 'points' to make then...

Still trying to get my head around how it works.  How does it work?

Low outlay. Low risk. That's sort of the point of a free bets system as I see it. Hence my sticking to shorties. I'm assuming that the people doing this would have no ideas when it came to calculating value, and would just be betting blindly, so the argument over true price vs market price would have no relevance to them.

I thought your method was risk free. Is it not?

Oh not this *again*!

Nothing is totally and utterly risk free. There is always the possibility a bookie will think you're dodgy, and will refuse to pay up. But as long as you're a genuine new user putting money on 2/1 and 3/1 shots, there's next to no chance the bookies won't pay - not if you've only placed a few bets.

I've done well over a 100 of these bets, and have never had any of those bookies closing on me for betting on £25 or £50 faves. (I did have SB close on me, but they did pay my winnings, and that wasn't while I was doing this system, but did involve an 8/1 shot winning.)   On the off-chance that the bookies don't pay up, even on a £50 bet, that would only leave you £100 down on a 2/1 shot. There's several hundred available, so you would still be able to end up in profit.

In short, it's pretty much risk free. If you have all the new user bets available to you, I'd imagine the chances of losing are next to nil.

Have you ever had a bookmaker not pay up on a winning free bet?

Nope. Had a couple of accounts closed down, but all my bets have been paid out. I'm still allowing for the faint chance that it could happen, though. Hence it's not 100%, but pretty close.

You ever had one not pay up?

BJTs reply that he would choose c) to maximise profits is adnmission it wins.
When I pointed this out to him his response is just to attack not myself but to the lord with crass comments.

As a bookmaker I had a few punters over the years who
didn't pay up, but again as bookmaker I always had to
pay. the former being one of the hazards of the game.

yeah ken I remember you said about that guy who was ordered from Newmarket heath following the 1951 Derby debacle, shocking affair, shocking

Amy, stick to your own thread, you
are out of your league on thi one.

ken i'm an historian , always interested in your thoughts , esp what it was like in the 50s , and I love the game of "fill in the missing letters" from your posts

Oct 30, 2013 -- 12:36PM, iprefertolay wrote:

BJTs reply that he would choose c) to maximise profits is adnmission it wins.When I pointed this out to him his response is just to attack not myself but to the lord with crass comments.

I never said it wasn't possible to win.  What I said, is that you can't guarantee it, and you certainly can't be sure to win every time as you are claiming in your pathetic attempt to make money off others.  You can't even guarantee that it will win.

The whole thread is really a joke.  Somebody that has a guaranteed system that never loses, looking for handouts because he is broke.

A typo Amy, but perhaps you should examine
your own posts, especially regards commas,
capitals, full stops etc,
Regards things in the 50's, perhaps you should ask
your dad, he might also be interested on your view
of older people, that is if you know who he is.

BJT,for information I retired at aged fifty I dont need to work or care to.
The system is arbing with a boost as someone pointed out in an earlier post.
Why sell it? simple, Ive used all the free bets up.
I spent some litte time today arbing on Abbey Clancy (Strictly) available 4.8 backers where I could get  6.0 (youwin).
I took the lot knowing I could also get 5.5 elsewhere.
Me and others made Youwin shorten to 4/1.
Needless to say the price has been corrected.
I can give you other arbs right now, theres one in Championship Engish winner for free!
Im sure you dismiss my comments like the monkey  you are, but hey ho its work tomorrow.

You reek of desperation old man....  Times must be tough, no doubt.  Hope things pick up for you.

will you 4 be meeting up for xmas drinks in London

Which 4 are you referring to?

Another well constructed comment from BJT, you never fail.
When I get down to my last 100k I will let you know.
Keep up the good work whilst Im snuggled up in bed.

xmas gift Abbey Clancey Stricly winner  lay 4.8 and upwards, back at 6.0 (youwin) posted 16.29 not for BJT he doesnt believe I win!

lol back at youwin, already you have put yourself at risk of losing...Youwin don't always pay out..I can prove that

prove it harry back up your yarn

Is BJT sleeping well it soon gets Monday
Won £200 peanuts today but monkeys like nuts.

already posted my betslip on this forum and the tennis forum..no need to do it again

Harry your not a full shilling or a dolly mixture or two short

The fact you use this bookies with poor reputation tells me you are scraping for pennies....They use oddschecker as a form of advertising, at the us open they were best price on every player for a few hours after the draws had been made, aiming for plenty of traffic through the site, mainly arbers like yourself who have no other way of making money through gambling........tiger woods was up at 5/2 4 days after winning  doral,every other bookie had best price 1/4...you are a mug if you think you can arb with some of these bookies...they will turn round and claim it is a transmission error if you take out to big as chunk in winnings.

2/5 and 4/1 is a papable error clearly not viable

Get to work BJT pit pony its Monday

Im not sure what suits you best, BJT.
The stubborn donkey,the monkey who i throw peanuts to or the sheep.

There was a BACK  system years ago , one of the first i heard . BACK TOP WEIGHT IN A NURSERY .


Now it has turned completely around - and is now a LAYING SYSTEM

Glasgow did the back system have a a/e value of over 1?  Also you need to consider over round as well

Nov 2, 2013 -- 5:22PM, iprefertolay wrote:

Is BJT sleeping well it soon gets MondayWon £200 peanuts today but monkeys like nuts.

You made a whole 200 pounds?  Wow.  You are set for life....  Maybe now you can stop your online begging trying to take peoples fivers....