General Betting
Would you pay for a system that always won?
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rotflmfao. Unsure as to why you are still trying to explain it all to me when I called out exactly what it was at the start of the thread.
The 2 obvious points here are: 1. You seem to feel you are highly intelligent for knowing how to put on a free bet. 2. You don't seem to be able to get the right answer to the question of why bookies don't shut you down, when their whole business goal is to only have mugs on their books. Punching well above your weight, and you are so stupid you don't even understand that. What is it you claim I don't understand? Seriously. You are hedging a free bet. That is it. You aren't doing anything new, and aren't doing anything that thousands aren't doing every day, and billions across the world on different ventures are doing daily. Your 30 posts with 300 words in each trying to explain it and you couldn't simply say "hedge your bet"..? I have been trading on here for a decade, and you want to try and lecture me when you don't even know what "hedge your bet" means? You seriously think hedging your bets is that far above anybodies intelligence level that you need to devote so much trying to explain it? Nothing wrong with your opinion of yourself anyway. At least, not from where you sit.... |
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No. No. No. No. No. No. The essential part of the system (my system, this is - I can't speak for iptl's) isn't anything at all to do with the sodding free bets themselves. Once you've got to the point of having received the free bet, what you do with it is up to you. (A few of us may argue over whether it's better to play the free bets as long or short odds, or whether it's better to play them outright, or hedge in order to take them in smaller but almost guaranteed installments, but those arguments are pretty much irrelevant.)
The key to the system is that you earn the free bets despite having risked only very small amounts of money on the previous qualifying bets. It's the qualifying bets that you're hedging. Rather than placing five £50 qualifying bets, and risking losing £250, or whatever, you're hedging the five qualifying bets and then taking a fairly fixed £3 loss (or whatever) on each one. You then receive a free £50 bet, and when you cash in on that, you make back the £15 loss and more besides. Do that at a string of different bookies, and you're almost guaranteed to make several hundred - the bookies don't close you down, because there's nothing in your dealings with them to suggest that you're anything other than an average punter with an average record. It's not big money. And I never said it was original, or that you needed to be intelligent to do it. However, it is an almost guaranteed way of turning free bets into real cash. A lot of newbie punters wouldn't know that, and would fritter away their free bets on shots that generally don't come in. For them, it might be useful to know there's another way. The only reason I keep writing hundreds of words, is because you keep rubbishing the idea, having got completely the wrong end of the stick for the 10 millionth time. How many different takes have you had on this now?? You stop shoe-horning yourself in, and I'll stop writing 300 word responses to you. |
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Lord Bobbin
This is the bit I don't get with you - you say - for which I totally agree with "The key to the system is that you earn the free bets despite having risked only very small amounts of money on the previous qualifying bets." Having got into this position why would you want to frizzle away even more money by firing it on 2/1 chances? Surely at this stage you want to get as much back on your qualifying losses as possible and thus maximising your profits - also by betting bigger prices you lessen the chances of winning on the bookie - which is desirable in this system. |
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BJT
You want your cake and eat it mate - seriously here You quite rightly state that a 6/1 is expected to win no more than 1 in 6 But when I quote a 12/1 bet on the free bet system ..... hey wait a minute it might be an evens chance according to you. Noted and understood. Can the 6/1 chance earlier in the thread not be an evens chance to? Or does it depend on who is saying it? Explain |
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Both the 6/1 and 12/1 could be an evens shot.......you will only find out once it has won by 10 length though
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rotflmfao
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BJT it wins attack me not the lord.
You chose c) maximsing profit enough said....... it fcikng wins |
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BJT, I haven't a clue what system iptl uses. Iptl has never actually outlined his system on this thread, as far as I'm aware. I'm the one who's been giving concrete examples, and still you've been attacking my posts. I know from countless bets that this system does work, and also know that it's easily provable by anyone with a calculator.
The general concept that I'm really defending here is the idea that you can use the free bets to get guaranteed cash. I was assuming that Iptl's system would follow similar lines to mine, since the free bets were clearly a relevant part of what he was hinting at - general arbing wouldn't require free bets at all. For the sake of argument, *my* system involves getting through the wagering requirements for each offer by backing at the bookies, and then laying them back again on BF - but only when the odds are reasonably close - say 3/1 vs 4.1-4.2 or something. That allows you to meet the wagering requirements having only risked a tiny sum of money. You then have a free bet which you can use (in whichever way you want - my preference is for taking a small but certain profit on each free bet, rather than letting the odds pay out over time) to leave you significantly in profit overall. You play through the free bet offers at the big names, and you should soon have several hundred. For newbies, that's quite a nice deal, and it should also show them that, if you blindly play favourites, you'll lose money overall. Again, not a bad lesson for a newbie. |
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Scott, on the system that I've used, playing longer odds shots would make more, but only a bit more over time. You've also got to put more aside if you're laying back long shots, whereas doing it with shorter prices means you only need to deposit a few hundred with the bookie, and a similar sum with BF.
Also, perhaps I'm wrong to think this, but I am suspicious of bookies closing you down. I appreciate that a 10/1 shot will typically lose most of the time (well, around 90.9% of the time, on average!), but that still leaves you that 9.1% chance that it will win. If you've got £50 on at 10/1, and it wins, there's always the chance the bookies will try and find a reason for not paying out. And that could be very painful. Do it with 2/1 shots, on the other hand, and you won't lose much even in the absolute worst case scenario - which is extremely unlikely to happen in any event, if you're playing favourites. Low outlay. Low risk. That's sort of the point of a free bets system as I see it. Hence my sticking to shorties. I'm assuming that the people doing this would have no ideas when it came to calculating value, and would just be betting blindly, so the argument over true price vs market price would have no relevance to them. |
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Must be a lot of down time with this system. You seem to do a lot of just random siht dribbling.
Need to find yourself some more bookies so you can get something to eat next month....  |
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See you've finally run out of constructive 'points' to make then...
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Still trying to get my head around how it works. How does it work?
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Low outlay. Low risk. That's sort of the point of a free bets system as I see it. Hence my sticking to shorties. I'm assuming that the people doing this would have no ideas when it came to calculating value, and would just be betting blindly, so the argument over true price vs market price would have no relevance to them.
I thought your method was risk free. Is it not? |
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Oh not this *again*!
Nothing is totally and utterly risk free. There is always the possibility a bookie will think you're dodgy, and will refuse to pay up. But as long as you're a genuine new user putting money on 2/1 and 3/1 shots, there's next to no chance the bookies won't pay - not if you've only placed a few bets. I've done well over a 100 of these bets, and have never had any of those bookies closing on me for betting on £25 or £50 faves. (I did have SB close on me, but they did pay my winnings, and that wasn't while I was doing this system, but did involve an 8/1 shot winning.) On the off-chance that the bookies don't pay up, even on a £50 bet, that would only leave you £100 down on a 2/1 shot. There's several hundred available, so you would still be able to end up in profit. In short, it's pretty much risk free. If you have all the new user bets available to you, I'd imagine the chances of losing are next to nil. |
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Have you ever had a bookmaker not pay up on a winning free bet?
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Nope. Had a couple of accounts closed down, but all my bets have been paid out. I'm still allowing for the faint chance that it could happen, though. Hence it's not 100%, but pretty close.
You ever had one not pay up? |
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BJTs reply that he would choose c) to maximise profits is adnmission it wins.
When I pointed this out to him his response is just to attack not myself but to the lord with crass comments. |
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As a bookmaker I had a few punters over the years who
didn't pay up, but again as bookmaker I always had to pay. the former being one of the hazards of the game. |
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yeah ken I remember you said about that guy who was ordered from Newmarket heath following the 1951 Derby debacle, shocking affair, shocking
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Amy, stick to your own thread, you
are out of your league on thi one. |
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ken i'm an historian , always interested in your thoughts , esp what it was like in the 50s , and I love the game of "fill in the missing letters" from your posts
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A typo Amy, but perhaps you should examine
your own posts, especially regards commas, capitals, full stops etc, Regards things in the 50's, perhaps you should ask your dad, he might also be interested on your view of older people, that is if you know who he is. |
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BJT,for information I retired at aged fifty I dont need to work or care to.
The system is arbing with a boost as someone pointed out in an earlier post. Why sell it? simple, Ive used all the free bets up. I spent some litte time today arbing on Abbey Clancy (Strictly) available 4.8 backers where I could get 6.0 (youwin). I took the lot knowing I could also get 5.5 elsewhere. Me and others made Youwin shorten to 4/1. Needless to say the price has been corrected. I can give you other arbs right now, theres one in Championship Engish winner for free! Im sure you dismiss my comments like the monkey you are, but hey ho its work tomorrow. |
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You reek of desperation old man.... Times must be tough, no doubt. Hope things pick up for you.
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will you 4 be meeting up for xmas drinks in London
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Which 4 are you referring to?
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Another well constructed comment from BJT, you never fail.
When I get down to my last 100k I will let you know. Keep up the good work whilst Im snuggled up in bed. |
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xmas gift Abbey Clancey Stricly winner lay 4.8 and upwards, back at 6.0 (youwin) posted 16.29 not for BJT he doesnt believe I win!
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lol back at youwin, already you have put yourself at risk of losing...Youwin don't always pay out..I can prove that
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prove it harry back up your yarn
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Is BJT sleeping well it soon gets Monday
Won £200 peanuts today but monkeys like nuts. |
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already posted my betslip on this forum and the tennis forum..no need to do it again
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Harry your not a full shilling or a dolly mixture or two short
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The fact you use this bookies with poor reputation tells me you are scraping for pennies....They use oddschecker as a form of advertising, at the us open they were best price on every player for a few hours after the draws had been made, aiming for plenty of traffic through the site, mainly arbers like yourself who have no other way of making money through gambling........tiger woods was up at 5/2 4 days after winning doral,every other bookie had best price 1/4...you are a mug if you think you can arb with some of these bookies...they will turn round and claim it is a transmission error if you take out to big as chunk in winnings.
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2/5 and 4/1 is a papable error clearly not viable
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