HOW MUCH WORSE CAN IT GET

bilbobaggins is obviously deluded

Curlywurly, I agree. Markets like that are a bot and one or two players.  In the past there'd be a bot, a few big players and a healthy group of smaller guys.  I'm on the verge of exiting a whole bunch of markets because of this.  No longer worth my time.

Agree. Almost overnight as well - from about March I'd say.
I've had so much time off this year.
The choice between playing leapfrog with a bot all day or the golf course is a no brainer.

I'm still stuck in my old ways, trying to eke out a profit in markets which no longer have enough activity.  I need to sit down and work out what % of events I should stop working on.  I'm stuck in a routine of logging on and working on events I worked on when I started (Oct 2009).

Seeding markets isn't as worthwhile for me either as a bot soon overtakes and nobody's punting far in advance of an event starting.  Better off waiting for someone else to seed and hope they throw up some 'wrong' prices.

The Sportsbook has certainly had a huge effect on the £2 punters. Having the exchange accessible through a tiny link pretty much prevents any new customers and many recreational punters from using the exchange. 

Only 'sharks' are left and it becomes that much tougher to make money. Slowly but surely, the smaller sharks leave as they require plankton to live off, then the bigger sharks have nobody to make money from.

And this is coming from someone who had their most profitable week ever last week.  I'm not suffering at the moment (a change in tactics and improvement in ability) but the changes in market conditions are clear to see.

Templeton, What you say about sportsbook is correct, but there are other external issues like the new advertising rules in the uk allowing the sportsbooks to advertise on daytime tv in the uk. This is taking the £2 punters to 365 and vic and ills at the expense of fair. Losing Germany etc. didn't help either.

Yep, there are plenty of issues, including the ones you mention, but the Sportsbook is one they can control.  I think it's a very confusing message to general public with there being two versions of Betfair.  If you're not a regular user, you might not have any idea what's going on.

Muqbil
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28 Aug 13 11:40
Yes i agree, i wonder what is going on.COULD it be that the share price is being manipulated.

sure the price is manipulated: on a daily basis by everyone that trades the shares

also you should not be a trader !

Templeton is spot on  , most of us need those £2 punters ..nay, the whole BF eco system needs them  ... they're definately notable in their absense .

Ditto to what I'm reading above. I'm noticing a lack of liqudity. Even premier games. The money comes in lumps, not a flow of punters.
And the lack of liquidity means it's easier for market manipulators to stick their dirty oar in. Basically you sit there, pretty much nothing happens, then a big lump comes in. Repeat. That's the new betfair. I can't believe it's because people are now suddenly betting less it's because they are killing their unique selling point, the exchange, by sticking big diversion signs to all new customers to their sportsbook. And for something that IS like an ecosytem, the exchange, it can be a death sprial.

I don't play golf but maybe I should take it up...

Will those sportsbook punters eventually notice that there's actually better prices (value) on the exchange though?

Or why don't they if not?

Try it yourself. In a browser with no betfair cookies, go to betfair.com.
Offer -> to sportsbook.
Click on sports, football. Matches listed. Bets -> sportsbook.
In fact this is even worse than I remember. I can';t even SEE where the ****ing exchange is, the used to have a bit at the bottom of the main page, "go to exchange" it's now gone!!!!
I'm not joking, I've spent more of my life than I care to think about on betfair, and in a new browser that's not got my cookies for the exchange I cant' find the ****ing exchange on the betfair website anymore.
Unbelievable.

Oh it's at the top left. A little "Go To Exchange" with no explanation and the default is of course the sportsbook, toggling it confronts you with the the naff new  exchange site (which is daunting looking as well as naff), opting out of THAT takes you to the old site, which STILL has a nicer front page than the new site, more user friendly. So it takes 2 different steps requiring knowing what you are looking for to get to the useable exchange interface..

Must be said the sportsbook interface looks pretty slick (though i won't use it) you can see where the IT development budget has went, the trainees must've been "Team B" and put onto screwing up the Exchange new version.

French ligue 1. Used to be one of my favourite markets. ko 6pm (in 40 minutes). Looking at 0-0, the most common bet in CS surely:
Lorient - 3 pts on graph.
Reims - NOTHING matched. Null points. Not a red white and blue euro cent.
Rennes - 2 points, a whopping £55.
Bastia - some liqudity at least. A bit. Sort of what Conference might've had 3 years ago.
Sochaux - 4 points on graph.

Here's a good example.  When I started out in 2009, I used to do quite a bit on the tennis side markets.  That started to dry up so I pretty much just did the Grand Slams, but the US Open has been dead.  Look at Rafa Nadal's match which starts in 15 minutes:

£10,268 on Set Betting (which is a fraction of what it used to be); £753 on the handicap; £129 matched on Total Games; £54 on Set 01 Winner; £0 on Tie Break Played; £0 on Most Aces; £0 on Dodig to Win A Set; £4 on Nadal to win a set; and so on.  That's pitiful.  I've not even bothered with any tennis today as there's nobody punting on the side markets.  I'm a tiny player in tennis but me leaving will probably cause others to leave, which results in other's giving up, until there's just tumbleweed.

Here's an anecdote. A couple months ago a guy on the football forum was asking for help. His join date was reasonably old.
He was someone who used to use betfair, had a break, and had come back.
Queue scratching our heads as we couldn't tell him what to do to help as what he was telling us didn't make sense. I can't remember what query was, something to do with laying or something as ...
After a while we worked it out : he, someone who was an old betfair user, had come back and was now on the ****ing sportsbook and didn't even know that was what had happened, wanted the exchange to do exchange things, and had to go on a forum to eventually work out why he couldn't as he was now effectively on a rebranded billy hills.

Face it the exchange is dying and it's plainly BFs intention. Anyone who is thinking of jacking in a job to go "full time" here needs their head checked.

Yep, it's not just new punters who won't come to the exchange but casual users who rarely bet. They go to Betfair, oblivious they've started up a sportsbook and use it assuming it's the exchange with a different layout.  As they only want to have a bet on something, they don't care they can't see how to lay a bet.

I certainly wouldn't quit a job to start on Betfair now.  I'm still doing fine, but it's much, much tougher and I'm having to adapt what I do.

Precisely TP. Except I'm beginning to think any money I might make (if I can stop being an undisciplined idiot ) again won't be worth it anyway now as it's using my time which has a value, to try and make it, and it just looks all downhill, and BFs decisions are the cause of it.

At the end of the day the exchange is now a bad product.
People are prevented from getting there, others are being driven away.
The new site is so bad it's probably deliberate .
You can't blame people for not using it.
If I had unrestricted accounts this would be the last place I'd come to.

They should just close most of it down and leave main match markets to bet on. It's all about the sportsbook as it's more profitable for them.

Should have got rid of that beta bollox website aswell, it must have driven potential new exchange users away.

Does the BF sportsbook restrict accounts? Will the only people on the exchange be bots, the diehard, and people with restricted accounts?

I see no reason for anyone else to be here JC.

Just rang the help desk to get a market turned in-play, the guy said was I a sportsbook or exchange user?  FFS

I was restricted to pennies the moment it opened.  They know who knows what they're doing and who doesn't so can limit the smart players immediately.  Quite an advantage for them.

From today's Times, the article is about b win but there's a nod to Betfair:-

"The company's strategy to sacrifice short-term revenue - it has cut investment in 18 non-core markets - and focus on regulated areas and fewer, higher-paying customers is already being introduced by the rival betting exchange operator Betfair."

In the over/unders markets I've noticed the big matches like EPL televised are fine.
The Spanish matches not involving RM or Barca have really taken a massive hit.

Less than £100k matched on Valladolid v Getafe Over/Under 2.5 at half time. Not really worth my time trading this.

Liquidity disappearing is the death of trading as you risk being matched one side and unable to be matched other side (or only at very bad red odds).
So traders also leave the market.

It's a death spiral.

With the switch to focus on the sportsbook they are either:

a) Trying to sell their customers something they do not want.  Indeed, something they are actively here to AVOID.
b) Trying to entice new customers with something vastly inferior to what is already available.

Regardless of whether the strategy is a, b or both, it's laughable.  A sportsbook directly in conjunction with the exchange might work, but by the time that happens properly the exchange might be dead.

If you are used to being able to see the graphs etc, looking at the sportsbook and trying to get a feel for the odds/market etc is like being blind.

Just Checking 31 Aug 13 20:58 Joined: 25 Jun 06 | Topic/replies: 12,804 | Blogger: Just Checking's blog
Liquidity disappearing is the death of trading as you risk being matched one side and unable to be matched other side (or only at very bad red odds).
So traders also leave the market.

It's a death spiral.

I said exactly the same thing to someone on skype earlier!

In that case only the big markets survive, and the whole exchange becomes less attractive.

In that case only the big markets survive, and the whole exchange becomes less attractive.

It becomes more attractive to me.

I'm not on the 'doom and gloom' side entirely - I still see plenty markets trading nicely with good liquidity (not all of course, but plenty still do).

Perhaps there has been a shift towards the central markets and away from smaller ones, but there are still enough opportunities. I do think there may have been a change in timings though - e.g. more money now arriving later in horse race markets, less early, but about the same overall as previous.

However, I totally agree that the hiding of the exchange in favour of the sportsbook is a disgrace.

I wonder, does anyone have any inkling of how well the sportsbook is actually doing, business wise?

Yep, that's what I'm seeing, stu.  Money arriving later and concentrated into fewer markets.  Overall liquidity might be on the up, but it's not across the board.  I think that's where Betfair and us get wires crossed.  They say liquidity is going up but that's only because of what's happening in the 'central' markets.  Just look at the Set Betting in Andy Murray's match today: £259 matched.  That's not just a small drop but a real plummet from previous years.

The interesting thing is that there must be some gain from all the advertising and joining of the sportsbook - some will come across to the exchange, that may never have even found BF before. Just wish they wouldn't reduce it so much by hiding the bloomin exchange.

That's betfair's official line.  They're using the sportsbook to bring in customers who would find the exchange too difficult.  Once they have them, they can slowly introduce the concept of the exchange to them.

Even if this were the case, there's no need to hide the exchange.  Why not have it half and half? 

The exchange is going to lose customers, the new sportsbook customers won't want to join the exchange, and Betfair get to fleece these idiots.  They assume the 'sharks' will continue to use the exchange as there's no identical alternative.  They continue to earn commission and 20%-60% PC from these people and don't need to spend anything on advertising the exchange as they assume sharks/potential sharks will know about it through means other than lowest common denomination tv/radio ads.  Easy money.

To be fair, CVC wanted to run the exchange as a sharks-only/no advertising type of business.

The question is to what extent do sharks need plankton to survive?  Will the 40%-60% create more position takers (this is what's happened to me) who can move to other sites more easily than those who rely on bots/trading/etc?

"That's betfair's official line.  They're using the sportsbook to bring in customers who would find the exchange too difficult. "

But all they'd need to do to do THAT is have a mode of operation that's a simplified exchange. You could wrap up the exchange to be exactly like the sportsbook, and show just bets (no lays) etc. That would mean the exchange would still get the bet liqudity and everyone's a winner. I don't buy the above. There is no obvious path from sportsbook to exchange as/is.

Do they start nagging customers who have been a month on the sportsbook to try the exchange? I doubt it!

I've only bet on the sportsbook a handful of times, if I place a bet and lose my maximum bet stays the same, if I place a bet and win my max bet gets cut. Pathetic excuse for a bookmaker I've only had 2k off them so far, even Stan James is better.

Its extremely difficult to win here for casual users here, and that is the reason why its unpopular . Basket buried(Nba was struggling last year and I without any hopes that anything will change soon.), Volleyball buried. And what is significant, tennis. Tennis started to struggle on the beginning of the year and has less popularity ever!. No easy money(not the same amount) for courtsiders.  And I must admit it hits me- lack of basket,volleyball particularly. Exchange is not that attractive product as everyone thought it will be 10 years ago, and its declining. But can you expect something to be rising or not declining when its hidden? hahaha. I remain positive though.

But all they'd need to do to do THAT is have a mode of operation that's a simplified exchange. You could wrap up the exchange to be exactly like the sportsbook, and show just bets (no lays) etc.

They have tried that. There is, or used to be, an option to show only the back bets. Part of the problem of that, I think, was that just the front price was shown, and often this would be for a fairly paltry amount (less than £10, say).

For years, BF management have been trying to come up with ways of making the whole idea of exchange betting more user-friendly, but without much success. As originally conceived, of course, the betting exchange was modelled in financial exchanges: you place a (possibly unmatched) order (to buy/sell) at a certain price, and for a certain amount. Although this is not a very complex idea - and I'm sure that few recreational punters would have difficulty getting their heads around it - it does entail certain complications: what happens if I place my order to buy, and it's not matched? What happens to the unmatched order (particularly if it's still unmatched when the relevant in-play event starts)? How do I subsequent control/manage the unmatched order? Etc, etc. For seasoned users of Betfair, of course, these are all very simple matters. But actually, if you think about it, there is quite a lot to learn. Even more intelligent people will probably take a few days/weeks, to fully grasp the detailed mechanics of placing and managing orders. And if you want to do much more sophisticated stuff using the API, of course, this learning process could take many months.

There is a fundamental, possibly unsolvable problem here. Recreational punters are after a bit of fun. If they have to spend ages trying to 'learn' how to use the exchange, that's going to feel too much like hard work, and they'll just go elsewhere.

BF management spent too much time looking at a problem that never existed.
The exchange model is not hard to grasp otherwise it wouldn't have showed the stunning levels of growth over the first few years.
The only things that have stopped the growth are an unreasonable hike in charges, a new website that is fecking useless and hiding the exchange.

The fact is that the exchange popularity and user numbers were rising from the moment the exchange started until the moment they implemented the very first dreaded premium charge.  That suggests that there is definitely a demand for a good quality, reliable  and liquid exchange where commission is the only charge people ever have to worry about.

Nice gap in the market for someone now as Betfair clearly dont want to grow the exchange but just become a poor mans Patrick P0wer

There are big gaps in the market for sure.

One thing that surprises me is nobody has created a niche exchange. By niche I mean, specializing in just one popular sport (Football for example) and nothing else whatsoever. No gimmicks, no silly casino nonsense.

It doesn't need to be sophisticated or flashy looking, it needs only to be harnessed with good liquidity, simple to use and a one-level commission rate that is always kept low but fair.

The internet is perfect for niche start-ups, it doesn't need to be hugely profitable, just a good moderate consistent earner for the small team running it and customers treated as valuable assets, rather than cash cows like they are on here.

Some people will say that isn't possible for a variety of reasons, but I truly believe there is a real strong desire (more now than ever) among exchange users to be treated fairly and that the moment the right models become available, bang goes Bf's outdated "great white shark swallows all" greed mentality.

Bookmakers are often quoted now that their margins on sports are between 4 and 5%.  Betfair are trialling 7% or more in many countries, without even having a middleman trader (cost) setting the price.

Matching a backer and a layer on a bet is not worth 7% of commission is it.  Nobody would have believved you ten years ago if you said Betfair would be looking at 7% for being a risk free middleman.

"new exchange" "it needs only to be harnessed with good liquidity"

And therein is the problem. I've not looked recently but Betducks lack of liquity was the primary offputting thing.

funkymonkey - that is a great idea. A solely football/racing/tennis betting exchange - love it. Please do it, lol.

would be a great marketing ploy too - 'only want footy, come to us!'

I'm really surprised there's not more exchanges on the net? I think there will be in the future? In fact, the way things are going I wouldn't be surprised if bookies start letting you be the layer with them? I think the future is bright regarding gambling as there will be so many more opportunities due to more competition!

Haha, more ways to lose your hard earned cash!

One more thing...

Phew! What's going on with bingo sites! Before you know it, every animal will have been used in the name!!!

Stu....Yep, that is exactly what I meant.  Football, Tennis and Horses. All of these could have a core niche base of players.

Speaking purely for my own activity, 95% of what I do on here is Football or Tennis related, virtually nothing else. The sportsbook is of zero interest to me and in all honesty, i find it a bit insulting given the pricing is laughable compared to whats available elsewhere. As for the The games and Casino rubbish I never even look at those.

I would be gone in a shot if a quality liquid market with low comm was available in a niche trading site for either of my sports.

Agree with Sheppy123 also, more will come and if they aren't exchange models, something new and innovative based along the same philosophy will arrive instead, because what we are seeing here at BF is only good for the company now, the clients have been de-valued and that is very dangerous.

I am not so much talking about the specifics of why liquid markets can and can't work or who drives them, I am talking about a fair exchange, Fair for the client, fair for the owners, positive upsides for all and a community spirit that once existed here. This is perfectly viable within a smaller company structure, with the focus on everybody's best interests.

And perhaps more importantly, this is what I see becoming the most important aspect to any start-up in 2013 and beyond. People have become tired of corporate models, and the grow, grow, grow until you swallow everything and everyone mentality. It is going to die, I see this all the time in other business ventures i am involved with. The same core issue. People no longer want that, they want a fair exchange of energy, a win-win mentality, not a winner-takes-it-all.

The one thing the internet is great for, is allowing space for small enterprises and new ideas to fit into gaps in corporate controlled arena's and set up on low funding with a small team. I just believe this area here is ripe for the picking like never before.

You have a considerable number of people here now that are basically packed and waiting by the door, so to speak, ready to leave as soon as it is opened.

the exchange looks quite an easy concept to grasp imo  and believe me, i have trouble understanding the instructions for a 7 year olds board game .

so how much easier can it be ?

agree that the exchange these days is carrying to much bulk .

EPL,La Liga,Champions league football matches only domestically, horseracing and top events only regarding rugby and tennis .


totally cluttered up at the moment ..looks like a dogs dinner

People talk about the lack of liquidity in a lot of the side markets.
Maybe that's because over time most reasonably intelligent punters on here have come to realize that most of them are totally superfluous to their basic punting needs.
And a lot of them always were, and still are, just like betting on flies crawling up a wall.
Those complainers on here who made good money on "the good old days" by seeding these unnecessary, sucker markets are just going to have to adapt or die.

And if you are now subject to the penalistic PC because you essentially have made over 250,000 pounds by fleecing punters in these sucker markets, then just be grateful that BF came along in the first place and gave you that wonderful, one off opportunity.
Those days are well and truly over, much to the benefit of the majority on here, even if some of them probably still don't realize it.
Markets evolve, players become more savvy, and " free rides" always get closed down.
C'est la vie.

Fine Frog , most of us FT'ers don't have any qualifications or the skills required to get by in the real world  -what do you want us to do ? Sell the Big issue ! 

... FAFH obviously trolling ..

I don't believe that for a second Coach.
As far as JC's comment, I would suggest he/she takes a hard look in the mirror.
Look BF has changed over time into a more ( not less ) even playing field for all.
These days I freely admit that I am no longer active on here, not because of the PC or any other issues, but simply because I have come to realize that my style of betting is better fulfilled elsewhere. I'm 100% pretty much on Pinny these days, with just the odd pop into BF to see if there are any glaring anomalies in prices.
But I didn't leave BF with any bad feelings towards it.
I learnt a helluva a lot getting fleeced on here by the sharpies.
Imo BF is best suited for in play betting strategies, with one being botted up appropriately.
I will never have the computer skills to do that, so I am best advised to leave all in play betting alone.
I like to be able to take good solid outright positions well before events start ( basically so that I can then get on with more normal social life without being glued to TV or internet watching games progress.)
Pinny gives me teasonably good prices are reasonable overrounds well before events start, and most importantly is not concerned, or not going to close me down if and when it appears obvious that I know what I'm doing betting wise.
So I evolved over time away from BF, but I'm sure glad in came along, and I hope it long exists.

"--sure glad it came along---"

What don't you believe Frog ?

That you're not qualified to find meaningful work in the non gambling world.
You sound pretty bright and buzzy to me.

Fine frog, thank you all the same ...but i honestly wouldn't know where to start in the world of work  .

I would try to avoid it at all costs though  never the less

(Probably) I will do a few (10- 15?)hours per week at a factory/warehouse for a  pittance an hour when my gambling days are over , just to run a car and pay for holidays etc,i should get by apart from that  .
I could probably cope with that ...just - as long as i was kept busy lifting things about and not sitting around doing nothing . 
Gambling is my life though ,solving problems and working with numbers at speed - there are simply no jobs that require those outdated skills.

Hope you're OK btw 

I'm fine Coach.
I do understand and empathize with your predicament.
I'm a bit like you in my liking for working with numbers. Not much else interests my brain.
However, fortunately for me, I made a completely undeserved packet outside of the gambling world with my " skills" ( I use that word reservedly)and hence now only need to do things that interest me without the pressure of having to do them necessarily well and profitably.
Hence the key difference between me and a lot of others on here.
I know that a lot on here are quite often annoyed by my seemingly dismissive comments on their concerns over BF matters. I try not to be too casual about the whole evolving BF scenario, and the material effects it is  clearly having on the livelihoods of many people, but sometimes I fail miserably, that I know too well.

Ahh- Ok ,a dark horse eh ?   didn't realise you were pretty much set up  .

Ah well,i will run this bus until it stops at the terminal .... As it goes,  i had no grand motivation on hitting millionaire status like a few on here which is just as feckin well  ....still  wouldn't mind getting my house fully paid for ...but it's getting friggin hard  these days .... it's like all the recreational punters have been tied up and gagged 


Anyway,keep on with the posts ...i enjoy them all the same

yeh you sound very similar to me coachbuster, ive been doing this full time for about 10 years

and as FAFH says, the good old days are well and truly over. i had a great period between 2004 and 2009 and

was basically printing money but then the pc kicked in at 20 then 40% and most of the markets i played on

literally dried up and its been a struggle for the past 2 years. if i was able to bet without the pc, i still wouldnt

make the money i used to but would certainly get a reasonable living. ive tried the purple one, but lack of markets

and mainly liquidity in running is such a pain.

I like anything to do with stats, odds and sport so clearly this my dream job.

i suppose i will just chug along and try and grind out something and hope for things to change either on this site

or another.

If you guys don't mind me asking - how exactly are you still coping if the PC is hitting you so bad, and this is your only incomes?

Well stu.
         First of all ,if you have to give betfair 40-50-60 percent when you win you have to find another way to get your bets on.If your playing with a bot that is a success i suppose you will let it run,as anything is better than nothing.But what has happend is a lot of pc players have gone elsewhere hence not a lot is being left in betfair,that in turn sends the smaller player away as there is no doe in a lot of markets.I do not use a bot, but i used to leave thousands of pounds in different markets now i leave nothing.I would say before the tax came 95 percent of my betting was on betfair now i hardly use them.The decline of a once great company has only happened becourse of the unacceptable pc tax.

Zia Park 1 minutes until off sunday 8th sept 2013 zero matched so far(yes nothing matched so    far.)

£10 matched all in stalls.

callataxi - let's hope things improve for the both of us

yeh if u fancy discussing ideas at all coachbuster or on possible other avenues to explore betting wise

then let me know on here and will give u my contact details.

NO way to beat the tax,no matter what you come up with,unless you lose overall with betfair.
NOW its great to have peace of mind and lay off on here.
But at the end of the day when you look at the p-l it just gives you the HUMP.
Think of all the on course bookies that lay off.They all lose. FACT.

Callataxi ,  i'm none too optomistic ...mainly because this site has already gone to the dogs !

Looking at the football fixtures on the opening page i note England's game is hidden away . I can only assume this is a deliberate attempt to sabotage the exchange .
The new lay out is obviously worse still (for us) .This time  2 years ago i got off to a similarly dreadful start ,but put that down to my own failings and folk out enjoying the hot weather .

This time round i feel different .... by October /Novemeber  it could be just a shark tank ,which means it may still be able to make a profit but not a healthy living ....and a lot of folk will be questioning the investment of their time .Maybe this is the grand plan ! 

I am keeping a close watch and will let you know how each week goes .  Other than that i have no new ideas i'm afraid that will bear too much fruit  ...we can only hope that the Purple get things together .

P.M me  via the loft Taxi ,occasionally i go up there to read messages  .... will be interested to hear your thoughts .

optimistic *

Coachbuster I just went onto the main page to have a look, and the Ukraine v England game was the main "featured" match in the football section, the Davis Cup winner was the main tennis market. Or were you on about the "new" site, as I am still on the "old" site.

cdog - the old site ,and under the Football subheading .

They have listed the games in chrono' order rather than in order of importance i note

can't imagine too many folk rushing to get bets on the Denmark game though

"Coachbuster I just went onto the main page to have a look, and the Ukraine v England game was the main "featured" match in the football section,"
Isn't for me, it's down the list of chronoligically listed matches (old site). Top game is currently Lithuania v Liechtenstein, that's always a server crashing big money draw so fair play to BF :)

"This time round i feel different .... by October /Novemeber  it could be just a shark tank "
That's a fear I've voiced before, in different words. I like that analogy.

I just had a quick flick through all the different sub markets in the Ukraine v England match and not all that much has been matched 1 1/2 hours before kick off and it's World Cup qualifier.

Betfair pricing structure is all wrong. I turned down bets yesterday because I didn't want to win to try and stay clear of the PC.

Ukraine - England match is the main featured match on my sports section, in-play section and football section.

"I just had a quick flick through all the different sub markets in the Ukraine v England match and not all that much has been matched 1 1/2 hours before kick off and it's World Cup qualifier."

Few better examples of 'mugs' leaving and only sharks left behind. Surely mugs bet as much on England v Ukraine  on ITV as they do on an EPL match? Sharks tend to rely on facts/stats/etc to take a position/trade and much more difficult with international football.

Just Checking -  yeah,all gets confusing knowing which pages to hunt down for the best .

I would check out the new site for info ,but i left the ray-bans in the pub

I'm on my worst ever run which started the day Murray won Wimbledon, so 9-10 weeks ago 

I've took time off, some for a holiday and some just faffing around, so it actually only equates to 6-7 weeks, but still I've had holidays and faffing around periods before and it's not been noticeable.  I feel I've been particularly unlucky (but then again maybe I haven't) and also made some uncharacteristic mistakes, some lazy and some because of pressure from dealing with the perceived bad breaks.  The most laughable was when I was watching TV once when I'd live paused the tv and hadn't realised I was about 5 minutes behind and the event had gone in play.  Lots of my betting and profit is not on here and that is the way it's always been for me, except for a period of around a year in 2007 when it was almost exclusively on here.  Having a big individual loss is easier to take, my biggest was in 2004 when I stupidly chose to chase a loss where I'd bet the wrong thing by mistake and went on tilt.  I was over it the next day.  It's when you have bad runs that and can't find good bets you question yourself.  It isn't the first time I've had a bad run and questioned things and myself.  I had one in February to April 2006
and one in 2011 when PC3 came into force, which really affected my motivation for a couple of months.  It's not just Betfair that gets more difficult, it's everywhere.  It just doesn't happen simultaneously and is dependent on what sport/events you bet on and in bigger sports what markets you bet on.  I had a big win last year off one bookmaker.  They made a mistake

Something tells me this time it is different too.  I noticed the abysmal turnover on the Ukraine v England game.  Markets where I thought I might find value I didn't.  It wasn't that the prices being offered were poor, the opposite was true, so I don't buy this people aren't betting because the prices are carp.  I think it's more that people aren't betting because the liquidity is poor rather than the value and it's an ever decreasing circle, because it's very risky to offer good liquidity in a market where there isn't much interest, as if you end up making a mistake the lot will get matched, whereas if you don't the chances are only a little will get matched, so you offer liquidity in a fashion whereby if you make a mistake it can be covered by the bets matched when you don't make a mistake.  One falls, the other falls and so on.  When there is less uniformed and casual money as a proportion the inevitable end result is falling liquidity.  Out of everything, the England/Ukraine market made me feel more pessimistic than anything else.  This was England in a HUGELY important WC QF match and interest was almost non existent.  OK, maybe in the eyes of the public faith in the England team is at an all time low, but still.

Didn't finish a sentence there what I meant to say was.....I had a big win last year off one bookmaker.  They made a mistake, but the win was big enough and the mistake was obvious enough that they won't make the same mistake again so what worked once will almost inevitably fail to work in the future at some point

CLYDEBANK29
12 Sep 13 13:05
Joined:
10 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 3,750 | Blogger: CLYDEBANK29's blog
The most laughable was when I was watching TV once when I'd live paused the tv and hadn't realised I was about 5 minutes behind and the event had gone in play.


A few years ago a similar thing happened to me during an IPL match. I had rewound the tv to look at a wicket being taken and then walked out the room.

Towards the end of the game it was getting very close and I was surprised at the prices when I checked them so started betting accordingly, thinking that I was getting massive value.

At times the odds were moving the opposite direction to what I was watching on screen. Thinking that a bot had gone on "tilt" I carried on trading in and out and taking profits until out of the corner of my eye I saw the green circle of the Sky+ box spinning (indicating that the tv was behind real-time). I greened out immediately to show a profit of £400 and when I checked, I had been watching the TV with a 4 minute delay!

I was a lucky boy that day although there has been times since (when going through a bad patch) that I have though about rewinding the TV by four minutes and trying it again!!

Seriously though Clydebank, its tough when you go through those periods and you have done the right thing by taking time off and coming back to the market fresh. Also, I normally try to go back to basics and try to take volatility out of my returns until my confidence returns and then build back up again.

i had a great period between 2004 and 2009 and
was basically printing money but then the pc kicked in at 20 then 40% and most of the markets i played on
literally dried up and its been a struggle for the past 2 years.

i guess i'm lucky in that i was at around £200k lifetime profit when they brought in the super premium charge. having seen the effect of the initial premium charge on liquidity in the smaller markets i used to do well in (and way back before that the effect of betfair hiking the commission rate on baseball from 2% to 5%) as well as what i take to be the effect of smartphones at venues where we went from the occasional market with someone miles ahead to pretty much every market on something like darts, i figured i would struggle to mkae a decent living at 60% pc (which is what i would be on if i made it that). since then i've essentially gone part-time and i'm taking an ou degree with a view to getting a job at the end of it. i'm actually slowing down so much as i'm getting into the studying (and spending more time looking after the kids) and fewer and fewer markets become worthwhile anyway, that i'm unsure if i'll ever make it to £250k. certainly not before i finish the degree at this rate. as i get older i find myself less intimidated, nope, that's the wrong word, appalled by the prospect of working in an office. eight hours just doesn't seem as long at 37 as it did at 21.

many of us find ourselves in the ironic position that we would probably be better off if betfair did kill the exchange off completely because maybe then the purple or red or whatever they are now would be better placed to launch a promotional blitz and make a decent fist of it. until then the liquidity keeps us here or so it seems. we're in a massive prisoners' dilemma situation.

BETFAIR Are killing the great exchange they had,its just a joke to what it was.
IS IT PURE GREED,STUPIDITY,OR A MORE SINISTER AGENDA.

And we the people on here created the exchange.We have given gazillions of or free time to build up Betfair since it's inception.
And this is what they do to us.

CORRECT

Just reviewing the sizes of matched bets I get unless Mr Joe Punter esq. and all his buddies are now big money players, soooo much of the activity on the exchange now is surely bookies, bots, bookies bots, manipulators, insiders, (f1xers..?) etc.

It's not like you get mostly £4 bet, £5, £10, a sequence of recreational sized bets from your average Joe, that you'd get in a "healthy" exchange like it used to be. It's thump, bang, big wad, spike.

It's the death of it.

Same here just checking, it's bots arbing the exchange and the pro books, they are rife.

I can't see it improving and only getting worse I'm afraid. I think it's time to start winding down, maybe just do big premier games that still have actual people on them. BF created this mess in lesser markets, they can lie in it, not sure it's worth it any more.

Keep a close eye on what the odds are with Pinnacle, IBCbet/12bet (they have the same odds), so you don't get arbed. Don't put too much money up in one go so if the odds move against you, you can red out without that much damage. Sometimes the odds can move sharply and you end up getting eaten, hate it when that happens.

WELL IS IT GETTING BETTER

After all the cobblers about the rugby and pc tax ,it has just got more pitiful,what the hell is betunfair playing at.

Aug 31, 2013 -- 2:58PM, Just Checking wrote:

Liquidity disappearing is the death of trading as you risk being matched one side and unable to be matched other side (or only at very bad red odds).So traders also leave the market.It's a death spiral.

Bang on.  As someone who has provided more liquidity in tennis and rugby HC markets than most in recent years, certainly the former, is now not worth bothering with unless one of the really big names is playing, and even then it's marginal.  It is physically impossible to trade because there are no backers.  If there are no backers, there's no ability to trade and if there's no ability to trade, margins are only going to increase, thus making it even less appealing for backers. 

As I said when I was asked if the rugby 'change' would affect my betting activity, that rather depends if there's any more backers' money in the market.  I'm always willing to pump more money in if there's an ability to trade.

I think a few things have helped us get to the stage we're now at.  1) PC  2) HUGE time advantages for those prepared to pay for the privilege - who wants to get picked off on markets where the prices are changing before the events have unfolded on the TV? 3) An ever-increasing lack of loyalty to BF (I think that's under playing it)  4) A half-arsed attitude towards Live Video, which, if they could be bothered, could go some way towards addressing the issues created by #2  5) The sportsbook  6) A complete lack of understanding of how the exchange functions from successive management teams

As has been said in Frog's thread, the fact that they were looking to do something to increase liquidity on the rugby markets - however flawed that plan may have been - is the first real indication we've had that someone at BF Towers is starting to wake up and smell the coffee....  Is it too late?  For me, the sad thing that remains in all of this is that despite everything, a REAL alternative is still to emerge....

A very good post Latolomne.  The rugby promotion only addressed point 1.  That on it's own won't work, fundamentally because of points 3, 5 and 6.  Point 4 I feel is a cherry on the top once you get the fundamentals right, whereas point 2 I feel is something without a good solution and is an inherent weakness in the exchange model.

I would also like to add point 7, and that is the level of shrewdness and the relative level of shrewdness. 

The market grew very quickly in the early days because you didn't have to be that clever to make money or extremely knowledgeable to offer prices, because there weren't anywhere near as many pros.  As the level of shrewdness increases, liquidity/offers decrease as you become more respectful of the opposition.  It's an inherent weakness in the exchange system and something that can't be tackled. 

Much more important is the relative level of shrewdness.  As the level of shrewdness went up over the years, the relative level of shrewdness didn't go up by anywhere near the same amount, as the exchange was growing, new blood was entering, there was a feel good factor that everyone was working together etc etc.  Now what is happening is that as the exchange is contracting, the relative level of shrewdness is increasing by more than the level of shrewdness.  It's part of the reason why competitors can't get off the ground.

Death spiral in itself probably doesn't do it justice, it's an accelerating death spiral.

Yep, good post, Latalomne.  I concur with the handicap betting on tennis.  3 or 4 years ago it was one of my major sources of income, now I've pretty much given up on it it as people like myself and many small backers have also left. Like you're saying, it's a death spiral.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7RIgs3eygo

LOVE THE VID, RINGS TRUE.