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I have developed a system over the last few months, the results which are giving me a good return at present. However it is way too early to know if it is a succesful system longterm. The main problem I have is that there are too few opportunities, on average I place four bets a week, so over a year I will only have placed about 200 bets. From what I can gather to know if you have a succesful system you need thousands of results to verify that it is succesful. So is my system worth pursuing with so few opportunities available?
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YES A LITTLE OF SOMETHING IS BETTER THAN A LOT OF NOTHING
DONT BE GREEDY
DONT BE GREEDY
Statistically speaking whether you need 1000's of bets to verify a system depends on how good the system is and the odds you are betting at.
In your situation I'd be more interested in whether you have a good reason why the system should work.
In your situation I'd be more interested in whether you have a good reason why the system should work.
If it's working now, get stuck in, matey!
If it goes bad later then at least you'll have had a decent run and hopefully
you'll be nicely head.
If you wait for 1000 results or whatever you could miss out.
Good luck !
If it goes bad later then at least you'll have had a decent run and hopefully
you'll be nicely head.
If you wait for 1000 results or whatever you could miss out.
Good luck !
A system is where you keep rigidly to a fix set of rules and never deviate. If you do this then you will see that your system 'cycles' - you will get winners and then losers followed by winners then losers etc. You will also find that you will gradually lose money because the odds are against you, either backing or laying.
Any system is as profitable as the next. For example bet horse no 1 in a handicap when it has won last time out and it is favourite. That system wins money but over time unless you have a bias (value or what ever you call it) you will lose money.
You need to develop a biased methodology not a system. The bias only needs to beat the overround for you to become wealthy beyond your wildest dreams. Knowing your fav stats is one such methodology,..
But as Pete and Dud once said "But who was listening? f'' nobody that who!!"
Any system is as profitable as the next. For example bet horse no 1 in a handicap when it has won last time out and it is favourite. That system wins money but over time unless you have a bias (value or what ever you call it) you will lose money.
You need to develop a biased methodology not a system. The bias only needs to beat the overround for you to become wealthy beyond your wildest dreams. Knowing your fav stats is one such methodology,..
But as Pete and Dud once said "But who was listening? f'' nobody that who!!"
It depends on the rules and unless you have identified an ingredient
that others may not, it's hard to be sure if you are on to something.
GL though.
that others may not, it's hard to be sure if you are on to something.
GL though.
your system will win £100 and lose £101 over time. Mine will win £10 and lose £11. so we're just as profitable as each other.
But if your have a biased system , now thats different gravy...
But if your have a biased system , now thats different gravy...
yes of course.
They usually involve watching for the money. eg Spinatrix just won the ripon 15:45. look at the forecast price against the sp. They knew. The top 3 in that race where all fancied by the yards, the money said so.
They usually involve watching for the money. eg Spinatrix just won the ripon 15:45. look at the forecast price against the sp. They knew. The top 3 in that race where all fancied by the yards, the money said so.
The price tells you everything - usually. Satwa Story wolvs 16:00 is a good example. The connections are really piling in.
they knew too. (I did as well obviously) The funniest line you hear by the pundits is 'I wont back it at that price - its too short' .
My wife is biased.
Is she?
Yes, when we go into town all I
get is 'bias' this, 'bias that' etc
Is she?
Yes, when we go into town all I
get is 'bias' this, 'bias that' etc
Irish racing is not very predictable but; Naas Ningalo Reef was fc 12/1 now 7/2. looks like a back to lay for me.
Depends on winners versus losers, and amount won versus amount lost.
Assuming winners and losers are equal amounts, then 120 winners and 80 losers is easily statistically significant. That is, your system works.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checking_whether_a_coin_is_fair
Assuming winners and losers are equal amounts, then 120 winners and 80 losers is easily statistically significant. That is, your system works.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checking_whether_a_coin_is_fair
Thanks for the replies lads, a bit more patience is probably what I need as system is working fine at the moment, though it is definitely not going to be a get rich quick scheme.
Aug 5, 2013 -- 11:56AM, JLivermore wrote:
Statistically speaking whether you need 1000's of bets to verify a system depends on how good the system is and the odds you are betting at.In your situation I'd be more interested in whether you have a good reason why the system should work.
Spot on.
In regards to systems, you really need to know prices. A "system" may work for some and not for others, based purely on this.
You could really pick a number out of a hat and back it each race and win if you got the right prices for them.
eg if you back something at 11 that comes into 5 SP then you will win long term. If you backed it at 5 after it came in from 11, then you will lose long term.
2 people could have exactly the same "system" and it all depends on your prices on whether it is a winning one or not.
If you are good enough to have found something winning at SP, then you are on the road to riches. Just say you are betting into a 90% market, and returning 105% then really you are making 5%. If you chase the prices on here, and get 10% better prices just by monitoring the market, then you have just tripled your profitability. If you have something 15% profitable, you really shouldn't be losing too much money on your losing runs and they shouldn't last more than a couple of thousand bets.
Mine is on about a 2.5 week cycle at the moment, around 1000 bets per week @ 112.4%. Some days it returns 80%, some 90%, some 140%.
In yours you use the term 200 bets per year, but you also say you have been developing it over the last couple of months. So maybe only had 50 bets or so?
To have a system with so few bets you really can't be sure. The less bets you have, to prove profitable means it returns more and more. Variance will be associated with any betting you do. If you have something returning 100%, you will probably find losing runs lasting thousands upon thousands of bets running at 75-80%. Will also get the opposite where it is winning for thousands returning 115-120%.
If returning 120% average, then your variance will at its most extreme probably be returning you 95% or so, but will still last for a while. If you have something averaging 150% return, then variance is really taken out of the equation somewhat, as on your worst runs, you should still be making a very nice profit.
So maybe you have had good results and getting excited. Maybe you have had bad results and are set for fortunes. Only really you know what sort of return you would expect by doing that system, and if it is any less than expecting 130%, then you really can't possibly know for many years to come.
Good luck with it though. If you want to post some numbers I am sure there are people here to give you a better idea. At the moment it is all pretty general talk.
You could really pick a number out of a hat and back it each race and win if you got the right prices for them.
eg if you back something at 11 that comes into 5 SP then you will win long term. If you backed it at 5 after it came in from 11, then you will lose long term.
2 people could have exactly the same "system" and it all depends on your prices on whether it is a winning one or not.
If you are good enough to have found something winning at SP, then you are on the road to riches. Just say you are betting into a 90% market, and returning 105% then really you are making 5%. If you chase the prices on here, and get 10% better prices just by monitoring the market, then you have just tripled your profitability. If you have something 15% profitable, you really shouldn't be losing too much money on your losing runs and they shouldn't last more than a couple of thousand bets.
Mine is on about a 2.5 week cycle at the moment, around 1000 bets per week @ 112.4%. Some days it returns 80%, some 90%, some 140%.
In yours you use the term 200 bets per year, but you also say you have been developing it over the last couple of months. So maybe only had 50 bets or so?
To have a system with so few bets you really can't be sure. The less bets you have, to prove profitable means it returns more and more. Variance will be associated with any betting you do. If you have something returning 100%, you will probably find losing runs lasting thousands upon thousands of bets running at 75-80%. Will also get the opposite where it is winning for thousands returning 115-120%.
If returning 120% average, then your variance will at its most extreme probably be returning you 95% or so, but will still last for a while. If you have something averaging 150% return, then variance is really taken out of the equation somewhat, as on your worst runs, you should still be making a very nice profit.
So maybe you have had good results and getting excited. Maybe you have had bad results and are set for fortunes. Only really you know what sort of return you would expect by doing that system, and if it is any less than expecting 130%, then you really can't possibly know for many years to come.
Good luck with it though. If you want to post some numbers I am sure there are people here to give you a better idea. At the moment it is all pretty general talk.
I am trying out 2 football systems both being paper traded for £10 lays, im liking the results to date...
System 1:
Started late april
300 lays
£10 per lay
Max lay odds of 5.5
Av lay odds 4 - 4.2 estimate
Total lays 310 with 47 losses -84.8%
Total returns after comm - £1075
System 2:
Started early july
47 lays
£10 per lay
Max odds of 3
Av lay odds 2.8 estimate
Total lays 47 with 12 losses - 74%
Total returns after comm - £116
System 2 I have tweaked after 27 lays (4/8/13) and put some measures in to help reduce losses meaning fewer lays but out of 20 lays only 4 losses which returns a S/R of 80%.
Also I created system 2 when I was trading back last season but due to too much time spent at my pc I had to knock it on the head, so after looking back at the matches it picked (winter league matches so more picks per week with 100% S/R - granted only 30 lays) I was seeing a recurring pattern so I have now spent my time with these straight lays.
What do you system specialists think ?
Am I on to a good thing or is it still impossible to say.
System 1:
Started late april
300 lays
£10 per lay
Max lay odds of 5.5
Av lay odds 4 - 4.2 estimate
Total lays 310 with 47 losses -84.8%
Total returns after comm - £1075
System 2:
Started early july
47 lays
£10 per lay
Max odds of 3
Av lay odds 2.8 estimate
Total lays 47 with 12 losses - 74%
Total returns after comm - £116
System 2 I have tweaked after 27 lays (4/8/13) and put some measures in to help reduce losses meaning fewer lays but out of 20 lays only 4 losses which returns a S/R of 80%.
Also I created system 2 when I was trading back last season but due to too much time spent at my pc I had to knock it on the head, so after looking back at the matches it picked (winter league matches so more picks per week with 100% S/R - granted only 30 lays) I was seeing a recurring pattern so I have now spent my time with these straight lays.
What do you system specialists think ?
Am I on to a good thing or is it still impossible to say.
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