General Betting
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That is laying the side who score
first, then when the equaliser comes,
close the bet. Successful last evening,
successful now. Seems to happen more
often than not. Any thoughts?
first, then when the equaliser comes,
close the bet. Successful last evening,
successful now. Seems to happen more
often than not. Any thoughts?
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Replies: 81
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You would often come across games where the outsider scores first and the price becomes unrealistic and as you know the home team or fav will more likely than not equalise before going on to win. There is an opportunity there. Are you talking about all games in general?
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Probably tv games where the market is fairly strong. I think the side that
takes the lead invariably sit back a bit for a while, giving the trailer a bit more room on the pitch. |
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never going to be as easy as that........but good luck anyway.
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I'm not suggesting it's the holy grail but in an article
I read on this subject showed figures to show the trailer scored a bigger percentage of the 2nd goal than they did chasing the first goal, and the only explanation is that the leader sit back a bit after scoring. It happened last evening, the lunchtime game and now Ross County who could be be layed at 4.8 after taking the lead, but now can be backed at about 14.0 Celtic having equalised. I will keep an eye on it. |
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With the example you just gave. Would you have layed Celtic if they had scored first?
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I would think this is possible if the pre match fav goes behind early on
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The biggest problem with this system is you become a in play player.low equitidy and hanging around for 90 minutes will test you.i would rather spend 30minutes studiying the teams etc and making my bet.90 minutes later I then can decide if my knowledge was good enough rather than get into the helter sketting betting of in play.
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C170, better late than never. Would I have layed Celtic if they
had taken the lead? Yes I would, as they would then be around 1.13 leading 1-0, one mistake away from being 1-1. |
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If you have seen some matches you would know that a very much
worse team almost get no chances to equalise. |
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With betfair offering opita with the latest information on when goals are scored,I think kenilworth sees the most likely markets to profit from are going with shortening prices.is he trying to engage you in other markets.kenilworth is long in the tooth with his experience and his knowledge is second to now.he is fishing.
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Five tv matches so far on Sky. In four of them,
the trailer scored the second goal. In no match so far, did the side scoring the first goal, score the second. Early days. |
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Another Sky league match, Accrington v Portsmouth,
where the trailer scored the second goal. Now six from six matches where the leader failed to score the second goal. Early days. |
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No second goal at Hearts, but a losing bet
if backing Hibs to get second goal. |
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Have you researched the history?
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Not personally but reliable others have.
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Did u try it on the Watford v Bournemouth match ? ......Bournemouth equalized on 30 mins .....problem was they went on to let 5 more in!
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I'm concentrating on Sky tv matches in England and Scotland.
Sunday match was Leicester v Leeds which ended 0-0, so no bet. |
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I seem to have stumbled through a wormhole back to 2004...
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? ...inner city, too clever for me.
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foot soldiers system wasnt it?
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i think pullein put an article in the rfo about this -in the last 6 months?
i think the % of teams who fell behind , but scored next , was 56% of games , in which another goal was scored. the problem is that the first goal may be the last |
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SCOM.."foot soldiers system wasnt it?"
...I'm pretty sure the poster who launched and maintained the popular and long running "Lay the Leader" series of posts here circa 2004 was........UK GATSBY. Kenilworth, are you UK Gatsby in disguise? |
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K is the Great K .....not the Great G
 .....surely! |
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dizzy i think youre correct..footsoldiers had a similar strategy in the days before the meltdown
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While this may sound like a gambling fallacy I seem to remember reading in .. a book that this is the case to some extent. Probably in that Racing Post Football Betting book.
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Sweetchildofmine.....Were Footsoldiers and Blatch the same guy or am I getting mixed up? I know Blatch was the guy who lost thousands of pounds of his Betfair followers cash but was Footsoldiers his other name?
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gotitwrong, Yes the first goal be the last goal
and would always be a losing bet. I didn't say there aren't losing bets. |
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no two diffrent characters i think dizzy
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Ok thanks SCoM. Blatch's case was a salutary warning to anyone foolish enough to consider handing over cash to someone they first "met" on a betting forum. The amount lost/vanished was in the high tens of thousands if I remember right.
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i saw that unfold on blondepoker..you kept wanting to scream out ''dont be mugs ffs' you could see where it was heading
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Weak markets ''next goal'' especially those not
on tv. |
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Successful bet at Leeds, home side scoring the second goal,
price on ''next goal'' market around 2.2ish depending on when bet placed. |
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No joy at Swansea.
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Seems no interest in this thread either so
perhaps I will just let it die.  |
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kenilworth 03 Aug 13 17:48
I'm not suggesting it's the holy grail but in an article I read on this subject showed figures to show the trailer scored a bigger percentage of the 2nd goal than they did chasing the first goal, and the only explanation is that the leader sit back a bit after scoring. It happened last evening, the lunchtime game and now Ross County who could be be layed at 4.8 after taking the lead, but now can be backed at about 14.0 Celtic having equalised. I will keep an eye on it. ============================================================================ If you consider it unlikely that a team will win, then if they score first it is "logical" that a lay on them is in line with your initial thoughts. Obviously what you say in bold does happen .....but, it is the strength of the opposition that is the main reason why games turn around. I'm doing well again on soccer bets since the season started and had I set out to lay teams where I did not believe they would win after they take the lead then I'd probably be well in profit from such lays. Your strategy would have gone well on many games last night IF you had a view that the leader would not win. Why not try your strategy on games where you consider the leader likely to be pulled back at some stage in match? GL |
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Lanus v Estudiantes is a game where I had initial bet on a lay on DRAW/EST........EST took the lead ....so I backed HT DRAW as hedge against main bet.....a lay on EST when they led would have "worked" based on my initial opinion.....
Currently 1-1.......so if stays that way at HT ....will use the profit off back on HT DRAW to back EST a bit. |
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BTW I missed out on similar type bet on HT DRAW as hedge against my lay on DRAW/INST in the DIV 2 game in ARGENTINA whilst posting to this thread
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