Laying the leader

You would often come across games where the outsider scores first and the price becomes unrealistic and as you know the home team or fav will more likely than not equalise before going on to win. There is an opportunity there. Are you talking about all games in general?

Probably tv games where the market is fairly strong. I think the side that
takes the lead invariably sit back a bit for a while, giving the trailer a
bit more room on the pitch.

never going to be as easy as that........but good luck anyway.

I'm not suggesting it's the holy grail but in an article
I read on this subject showed figures to show the trailer
scored a bigger percentage of the 2nd goal than they did
chasing the first goal, and the only explanation is that
the leader sit back a bit after scoring. It happened last
evening, the lunchtime game and now Ross County who could be
be layed at 4.8 after taking the lead, but now can be backed
at about 14.0 Celtic having equalised. I will keep an eye on
it.

With the example you just gave. Would you have layed Celtic if they had scored first?

I would think this is possible if the pre match fav goes behind early on

The biggest problem with this system is you become a in play player.low equitidy and hanging around for 90 minutes will test you.i would rather spend 30minutes studiying the teams  etc and making my bet.90 minutes later I then can decide if my knowledge was good enough rather than get into the helter sketting betting of in play.

C170, better late than never. Would I have layed Celtic if they
had taken the lead? Yes I would, as they would then be around 1.13
leading 1-0, one mistake away from being 1-1.

If you have seen some matches you would know that a very much
worse team almost get no chances to equalise.

Aug 4, 2013 -- 7:47AM, kenilworth wrote:

C170, better late than never. Would I have layed Celtic if they had taken the lead? Yes I would, as they would then be around 1.13leading 1-0, one mistake away from being 1-1.

Not sure the system would work regularly for heavy favourites, good luck if you can get it working in that situation. It's certainly a play when the dog scores first, although you are probably better off backing the favourite rather than laying the dog.

With betfair offering opita with the latest information on when goals are scored,I think kenilworth sees the most likely markets to profit from are going with shortening prices.is he trying to engage  you in other markets.kenilworth is long in the tooth with his experience and his knowledge is second to now.he is fishing.

Five tv matches so far on Sky. In four of them,
the trailer scored the second goal. In no match
so far, did the side scoring the first goal, score
the second. Early days.

Another Sky league match, Accrington v Portsmouth,
where the trailer scored the second goal. Now six
from six matches where the leader failed to score
the second goal. Early days.

No second goal at Hearts, but a losing bet
if backing Hibs to get second goal.

Have you researched the history?

Not personally but reliable others have.

Did u try it on the Watford v Bournemouth match ? ......Bournemouth equalized on 30 mins .....problem was they went on to let 5 more in!

I'm concentrating on Sky tv matches in England and Scotland.
Sunday match was Leicester v Leeds which ended 0-0, so no bet.

I seem to have stumbled through a wormhole back to 2004...

? ...inner city, too clever for me.

foot soldiers system wasnt it? 

i think pullein put an article in the rfo about this -in the last 6 months?

i think the % of teams who fell behind , but scored next , was 56% of games , in which another goal was scored.

the problem is that the first goal may be the last

SCOM.."foot soldiers system wasnt it?"

...I'm pretty sure the poster who launched and maintained the popular and long running "Lay the Leader" series of posts here circa 2004 was........UK GATSBY.

Kenilworth, are you UK Gatsby in disguise?

K is the Great K .....not the Great G.....surely!

dizzy i think youre correct..footsoldiers had a similar strategy in the days before the meltdown

While this may sound like a gambling fallacy I seem to remember reading in .. a book that this is the case to some extent. Probably in that Racing Post Football Betting book.

Sweetchildofmine.....Were Footsoldiers and Blatch the same guy or am I getting mixed up? I know Blatch was the guy who lost thousands of pounds of his Betfair followers cash but was Footsoldiers his other name?

gotitwrong, Yes the first goal be the last goal
and would always be a losing bet. I didn't say
there aren't losing bets.

no two diffrent characters i think dizzy

Ok thanks SCoM. Blatch's case was a salutary warning to anyone foolish enough to consider handing over cash to someone they first "met" on a betting forum. The amount lost/vanished was in the high tens of thousands if I remember right.

i saw that unfold on blondepoker..you kept wanting to scream out ''dont be mugs ffs' you could see where it was heading

Weak markets ''next goal'' especially those not
on tv.

Successful bet at Leeds, home side scoring the second goal,
price on ''next goal'' market around 2.2ish depending on
when bet placed.

No joy at Swansea.

Seems no interest in this thread either so
perhaps I will just let it die.

kenilworth 03 Aug 13 17:48 
I'm not suggesting it's the holy grail but in an article
I read on this subject showed figures to show the trailer
scored a bigger percentage of the 2nd goal than they did
chasing the first goal, and the only explanation is that
the leader sit back a bit after scoring. It happened last
evening, the lunchtime game and now Ross County who could be
be layed at 4.8 after taking the lead, but now can be backed
at about 14.0 Celtic having equalised. I will keep an eye on
it.
============================================================================

If you consider it unlikely that a team will win, then if they score first it is "logical" that a lay on them is in line with your initial thoughts.

Obviously what you say in bold does happen .....but, it is the strength of the opposition that is the main reason why games turn around.

I'm doing well again on soccer bets since the season started and had I set out to lay teams where I did not believe they would win after they take the lead then I'd probably be well in profit from such lays.

Your strategy would have gone well on many games last night IF you had a view that the leader would not win.

Why not try your strategy on games where you consider the leader likely to be pulled back at some stage in match?


GL

Lanus v Estudiantes is a game where I had initial bet on a lay on DRAW/EST........EST took the lead ....so I backed HT DRAW as hedge against main bet.....a lay on EST when they led  would have "worked" based on my initial opinion.....

Currently 1-1.......so if stays that way at HT ....will use the profit off back on HT DRAW to back EST a bit.

BTW  I missed out on similar type bet on HT DRAW as hedge against my lay on DRAW/INST in the DIV 2 game in ARGENTINA whilst posting to this thread

HT    Instituto Córdoba    1-1 (1-1)    Brown de Adrogué


My initial lay on DRAW/INST is now threatened. Fortunately home team down to 10 men, and this factor helps in circumstances ( a profit off the HT DRAW would have been a better position to be in....but not to be).

EST taken lead again just before HT....so will back HT DRAW again! Still believe LANUS will not lose.

Goal not allowed

Won approx £32 off back on HT DRAW in EST game......and using £17 to back 1-3 and 2-3 now as hedge for initial lay on DRAW/EST. If EST don't win , then profit off initial bet and off the HT DRAW bet at 0-1.

Your strategy on thread is a "good" one if you select appropriate games.

G M the noooooooooooooooo

DFC, your posts appreciated, lf only because no one else was
interested! The theme of my original post is that the side
that scores first (usually the home team/fav) and then ease
off slightly which allows the 'trailer' more opportunity to
equalise, but not recognised in the betting for 'next goal'.
For me it's all about the betting, nothing else, others may
see it differently, as you do. GL

Kenilworth ... I've read this thread a couple of times and I'm certain there could be something in it  ( obviously given the correct prices). It maybe an interesting strategy to see how it would work in a league as competitive as say The Championship .




Good Luck

Having missed out on the opportunity to bet( due to me posting to this thread !!!!) on HT DRAW at 1-0 INSTI..., then a HIT was taken on that game.

I also made an arse of the other game .....by laying 1-1.....so took another smaller HIT on that match ( the away team ...ESTUD...looked the more likely team to score for most of 2nd half....so wanted to avoid a larger HIT if became 1-2 ( had 1-3 and 2-3 coverd as backs ....but not 1-2 as believed LANUS would score again...which they didn't.)

Still believe there is a good strategy to be used on games where the team taking the lead are not likely to hold on to it at some point in game. As my "opinion" comes first on a match, then if the odds are reasonable to LAY, or BACK, I generally place a bet.

I understand you have opinion on the odds K, as to whether back or lay, but to do so involves some opinion on outcome too....even if in your subconscious.

Would be interesting if you did use thread to test your strategy on selected games.....not every game as that would fail.( I am aware you like to go against the crowd, and TV games have a larger audience.....but IMO you should be prepared to take on any appropriate game where you believe the odds are wrong based on all the factors you know on game.)   

GL with whatever you decide to do.

DFC, I usually have an opinion on what the betting should
be, but not on the result, as no one knows that. When the
betting steps too far out of line, I have a bet. I thought
it did on two different markets Manc v Newc. Regards what
the result will be, it was very difficult to be against the
home side, but were they the right price? That's the question
in my mind.

K ......MAN CITY game v NEW was a straight forward match.


New coach....a class one for MC......and he would want to get fans on side from the off. A big victory was likely...and it came.

"Right price" is a subjective matter.....and when it went 1-0....early in game ...then was just very very unlikely NEW would equalise IMO ( I had layed DRAW/DRAW in that one....so my opinion was "strong" on that game....as would have lost a substantial amount had i been "wrong")

Of course with football ......a goal can be scored when most unlikely to happen.....take the 10 men INST winning from 1-1 in 2nd half this morning....AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH !

Was it likely NEWCASTLE would win that match.....NO.......but a draw could have happened....but I could not consider this likely to happen ( my bet was based on that view).

Guessing is all I can do with FOOTBALL......the odds for bets are important and I try to select the "best" bet based on opinion on outcome......Of course I don't "know" the outcome......but will keep guessing

GL with bets.

CELTIC game interesting ....

If CELTIC take lead , then they are likely to hold on to it.

If home team take lead....same likely to happen IMO...

So game does not appeal to me for laying the leader.....soon see.

.

DFC, this is the first leg of a two legged
affair, and an away goal/clean sheet of more
importance, a defeat acceptable, especially
if an away goal scored by Celtic. They will
probably need it unless 0-0.

Clean sheet/ away goal should that not be!

Some teams are that confident they will score away ...that they play for 0-0 at home.....this might be one of those games.

HT     Olympique Lyonnais     0 - 1     Real Sociedad


This looks like a likely lay the leader bet ...so about to do so on thread above.

Of course I lost on lay on REAL S.....and missed out on not laying DONCASTER ....MILAN .

The RED CARD in REAL S game 2nd half did not help the lay ....but from what i saw the away team were well ahead in class v LYON.

DFC, Doncaster didn't qualified as they scored the 1st TWO goals.
Wigan were the qualifier after going 1-0 down. Sorry.

EHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH......

LAY the leader is title of thread K ...and it was DONCASTER who scored 1st......This is when you presumably would lay them........

When they scored 2nd goal to go 0-2 up, then you would still have bet standing from lay on D at 0-1......

You then would sit it out and hope home team get back level......to go all green......which is what happened....

Can you please explain what you mean re title of thread.

ken is a thicko don't worry

Naw K is not a thicko......probably just sleepy at this time of day/night!

Lay the leader, back the trailer is the same thing, but bet
finishes with the arrival of a second match goal. Simple, I
apologise to any one who has trouble understanding that,
including (x)These checkboxes suck

prob is as soon as you do it the price goes down and down.if theres no equalise your facing a 100% loss..if trailer scores your into a small win.if its the dog its usually minimal..

Sorry K ....but it is not the "same thing" ! Surprised you don't recognise this

Obviously laying the leader gives you profit on DRAW and the losing team......whereas backing the losing team gives you a LOSS on DRAW and leading team......

"Simple" is a strange word for your "explanation" of what you mean....

The concept you post in last paragraph is different from the title of your thread.

Not saying the new concept from you is a "bad" one.......but it is not "similar" to title of thread.

Also......saying the bet finishes when the 2nd goal comes is totally different from laying the leader strategy . Clearly last night WIGAN did come back from 0-2 down to DRAW.....which would then give a profit on DRAW if stayed DRAW FT ( also allows you to go all green when late in game).

MILAN game also gives you profit if a DRAW at end......

Don't like the "new" concept at all......as limits your chances on making a profit, especially when the 2nd goal or equaliser can come late in game due to leading team "parking the bus" etc.

DFC, I accept what you say, my brain is tired. GL

"That is laying the side who score
first, then when the equaliser comes,
close the bet. Successful last evening,
successful now. Seems to happen more
often than not. Any thoughts?"

Only value if the revised odds are greater than the true mathematical odds I would think, research needed.

Near impossible to research, but you are welcome to try.

May try it on Premier League matches where both teams are greater than evens but abort if no goal after 60 mins

Are you ahead ?

Looked it up, Pullein devotes as small chapter to this in his book, chapter 4 "how goals change games". His stats indicate that a team losing 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal than a team leading 1-0 (from 10 years of english leagues).

Actually maybe I didn't explain that well, he meant that a team is 6% more likely to score the second goal if losing than if they are ahead, which is a bit different.

Interesting JC, thanks. My reason for looking only at games where both teams are odds against
is that a goal scored early against a hot favourite would not alter the odds sufficiently to cash out with any great profit.

dunter, if the 'rag' scored first you would then be
backing the favourite to score the next goal, and
would be more likely to get it, all be it at a shorter
price than scoring the first goal.

Kenilworth as I said above

"a goal scored early against a hot favourite would not alter the odds sufficiently to cash out with any great profit."

dunter, it would depend on the price the favourite was in the new market,
in relation to the price they were to score the first goal, surely?
Providing the hot favourite scored the equaliser a profit is a profit.

It's an interesting thought. If pullein is known to be right by market makers, then the next goal market should change slightly after the first goal, in direction away from scoring team. Although it's hard to track accurarely in play as of course no goal goes down with time so team odds are changing upwards anyway.

My point is a 6/4 shot scoring first is likely to go odds on whereas a hot pot losing an early goal is likely to remain odds on IMO

Likely losses must always be balanced against likely gains, don't you think

ken you didn't ought to be trying to lay anyone at your age - nice call on overs tonite too - doh !

dunter, a 6/4 chance scoring the first goal will go odds on
to win the match, but not odds on to score the next goal, in
fact may not even be favourite to get the second goal.

It's an interesting thought. If pullein is known to be right by market makers, then the next goal market should change slightly after the first goal, in direction away from scoring team. Although it's hard to track accurarely in play as of course no goal goes down with time so team odds are changing upwards anyway.

They do change after the first goal. I doubt you can notice it as much on the market on Betfair because of liquidity, but it's very noticeable on bookmaker markets. It might be worth having a look at them and after a goal is scored you can calculate how much they change in favour of the trailer. No next goal odds usually increase slightly after a team takes the lead aswell, so the overall odds change in favour of the trailer can be quite significant.

Was just looking at Quilmes V San Lorenzo, it was 1-0 to Quilmes and the next goal odds at a bookmaker were;

H 2.6
A 2
No Goal 3.75

after San Lorenzo equalises;

H 2.5
A 2.2
NG 3.5

Was similar move on the market on here, but with bookmaker you know the odds are coming from one source/model so it's clearer.

Kenilworth, lets assume the match result rather than the next goal:
6/4 shot scores first goes to 4/6
lay 40 to win 60 to return 100 not to win (draw in your favour)----other team equalises, 4/6 shot now becomes 2/1, back it for 33.33
bet 33.33 to win 66.67 to return 100
outlay 73.33 return 100 regardless of result 26.67 profit.

Less stress I think

Except that the leader could score the second goal.

Thats the gamble all depending on the equaliser
Likely losses must be balanced against likely gain

for that reason it ain't my cup o' tea