It's amazing how the odds change!

should be 10,000

I always think that Djokovic or Murray could slip and hurt themselves. All of a sudden players aren't big odds anymore.

to be fair sheppy 2 quid could have moved the price from 800 to 500

I understand that swom. But it's not necessarily the back odds. It's the price that people actually want. Right now it's 650.

I lost out cos I was greedy! When he was 900 I wanted 1000. When he went much lower I wish I'd had taken the 900!

at prices that high it's all a bit random, and you can't read anything much into it. you're talking about the difference being the market saying he has a 0.12% and a 0.2% chance of winning.

1000 is a much more interesting price.

I see your point viva el presidente!

People always want more don't they! If something was 10,000 they'd want 11,000! Me too!

A few weeks ago a golfer was 970. I wanted 1000. I was fuming when he won! Not as much as the person that layed him though!

God! It's amazing where the time goes! The golfer I was referring to was D.A. Points. winning the Shell Houston Open in March!

you didn't back a 970 winner as you wanted 1000

Yes it's true! I would've probably layed him off @ 900 but I'd have still got a few hundred quid! It kinda makes up for all the losses.

I'm no expert on golf but I follow it, and try to hunt out players at big odds who I consider to be good value.

I think, if you're really thinking about backing somebody it's best if you do, even if the stakes are small, cos if you don't it could really piss you off if they win!

I see

by the way, are you new to the forum? what sports do you bet on sheppy?

Hi 3setpoints! I've been using the forum for about a year, but it's only the last few months that I've really got into it. I think I've made up for it with my addictive personality!

I bet on horse racing, golf, football, snooker, tennis, other bits and pieces.

I put a lot of effort into trying to find an edge in horse racing by creating databases etc. So far I've failed miserably!!!

to win consistently on the horses seems nigh on impossible. I love watching it though! would love to find a system that would yield just £20 a day

Haha me too!

The thing is with horse racing, you can easily find a system where you'll be after many months. And then all of a sudden you'll get a bad month that will wipe you out!

Sorry, I missed the word 'up' out!

I see your point. what systems for example?

Phew! I've mentioned this before and people are gonna start getting bored with me, so sorry to hear it again!

I've managed to get 6 months of horse racing results together. I'm currently working on the 7th month but it's slow going cos I'm running out of motivation!

I spent ages writing a program that goes through these results using specified searches such as... Back all horses that are between 50-100 (odds) in handicap races.

Or... Lay all odds on favourites etc.

My program is ongoing cos I keep adding things to it making it more complex.

One day, I hope it will be worth all the effort!

wow. no luck yet though?

Not yet!

Hows this for ambitious...

I spent weeks getting many months of results from 'The Racing Post' website. Then I discovered Timeform and felt the need to start again!!! Copying and pasting can get SO boring!!!

At first my program wasn't running right and I thought I was gonna be rich cos it found lots of profitable systems! What a downer that was when I realised!!!

Now hows this for lucky...

God I must be bored right now!!!

Because my program wasn't running right it made me think that laying odds on favourites was the way to go so I jumped in and started doing it for real.

I can't remember exactly what happened but on the 2nd day something like 11 out of 12 odds on favourites lost!!! I couldn't believe it!!! Thanks brilliant program I love you!!!

I'll leave it there before you start to fall asleep!!!

no I find this stuff interesting your amongst fellow gamblers here don't forget

so you had a lucky day but could that work long-term?

I'm not sure about laying odds on favourites. I don't think there's much in it really??? You wouldn't win much, but wouldn't lose much.

BUT, unless you've got some kinda BOT to put the bet on it definitely wouldn't be worth it!

I think backing horses at big odds has got a lot of potential simply cos the odds are bigger on Betfair. But, at £2 stakes you could lose £500 in no time!

My research continues...

Good Luck

sheppy, mate..

I'd bet a lot of cash that you are young and obviously enthusiastic. I can tell from seeing your posts over the past few week, and your liberal use of the exclamation mark!

Now, please take some advice from me who has been backing horses for 40 years. It is advice that will get me abuse from many on here but, believe me, you won't go far wrong taking it.

You are smart enough to be building databases and the like, so please use that intelligence - and your enthusiasm - to study /research / work on a professional career, like a solicitor, accountant, doctor etc. That is where the real money is.

Mate, you are NEVER gonna beat this game. NEVER. Some of the things you have tried make me LOL because they are so innocent. They have all been tried a million times before and have they worked? No! I have tried, and bet, on everything myself and have kept a record of every bet since I was 12 (pretty unique for a punter). I have turned over huge amounts and have recovered 97.2% of it, as of yesterday. So, not bad but I have still not made a profit....

Apart from being so bl**dy hard to work out, the primary reason you will not beat horse racing is because the bookies will beat you first. If you ever did find something that worked, you would soon get banned and you'd need the organisational skills of a moon mission to get bets on through third parties. But before you even got there, the bookies would have worked out what you were doing and started adjusting the odds accordingly.

Yes, a very few do win at betting on horses but they are in a tiny, tiny group. Off the top of my head, I'd say the Coolmore owners and those who put on for them make it pay but there are very few others.

This will all disappoint you and you won't take any notice - I didn't when I was 20 - but please think about it because you are going to spend a great deal of time otherwise that would be spent better elsewhere.

Too late for me now, I'm off to Ponty tomorrow - but if I can save one misguided soul (no offence), I'll be happy.

Good luck when you carry on anyway!

no abuse here..thats an excellent post knight

Great post!

Can I ask The Knight, did you work a normal job for the last 40 years? are you retired now? (going to Ponty on a Monday)

it's not true that you can't "beat this game". if it was there'd be no long term winners here.

sheppy - are you using trading software? Geek's Toy has a paper trading mode that might be better for testing systems than small stakes.

have you beaten the game viva?

The Knight is right that the money lies elsewhere and in the time it will take you to get to the winning stage - you would have been a bigger success in another field. The Knight is wrong with the statement "he will never beat this game" as the OP could find something in 10 years time that will make him money. You should rephrase "you will not beat this game for a very, very long time - if at all".

The Knight is right full stop imo

hes right but so is viva, you can beat the game, but the other 95% would do well to heed knights advice

The main thing sheppy is it sounds like you are trying to back fit blind betting systems based on price and this will never work - why would you expect for example, that laying all horses just because they happen to be odds on is profitable?  Would you expect laying all horses evens and above to not be profitable?  Would you expect backing all horses evens and above to be profitable?

Let's then say you do have a system and you are going to lay all horses odds-on.  What is odds on - is it at the books or on here?  5/6 at the books may be 2.02 on here - do you lay it?  It may be 1.91 at 10am on here but 2.26 at the off.  Did you lay it?  What if the fav has been firming slightly all day and is 2.04 just before the off and then  jumps to 1.98 as the stalls open - did you lay it?

You'll never lay all the horses you should have done and will also lay a good few you shouldn't have.

Thanks for the advice guys, especially 'The Knight' it's much appreciated! Here's my reply...

Firstly, I'm in my mid 40s so I'm no spring chicken! Ending every line with an exclamation mark is a bad habit. I wouldn't read too much into it. I think I use it as a way of trying to be funny!

Secondly, words can be SO misleading. When I said "ambitious" it must've conjured up all sorts of thoughts like I wanted to be rich etc. Well who doesn't, but it wasn't meant to sound like that.

Thirdly, how many times have people tried things that haven't worked? It's part of being into gambling. Why do some people spend so long looking at stats etc. They've already been told it's a mugs game BUT they keep on doing it.

Worrying about not getting my bet on with a bookie is a zillion miles away!

I can't accept what people say. I feel the need to prove it to myself.

I can put myself down all day long but one of my good points is being helpful. I felt the need to share my progress with everybody. If my posts are annoying I'll stop.

no I don't think your posts are annoying, I actually quite like them!

TheVis - Everything I test is at SP cos basically I'm going through the results on Timeform.

There are countless articles on the net about laying odds on horses. It seems it's a popular thought?

I had to find out for myself whether it'd be profitable or not. I couldn't just take someones word for it.

Somebody says that Liverpool won't win the league. Do you take their word for it or do you question it? You do the latter.

Thanks cdog! Those were kind words! (more exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

3sp - well, I make a living from this, so in that sense yes. then again, it's been work. I'm certainly not saying there are easy point and click ways to make money betting out there.

sheppy - couple of things. firstly what someone said about backfitting is right. you will find what look like patterns in past results but aren't, almost by definition. at best it can suggest something worth further investigation. but the best way to treat that suggestion is with the scepticism you'd feel if it came from someone else, not the elation you'd feel at your own intellectual breakthrough.

what kind of thing is likely to work? if it was as simple as laying odds on horses, people would have found it already and it wouldn't be there. also, don't fetishise prices. there's nothing special about 1.99 compared to 2.0, they're just representations of percentage chances. anything that does work is likely to be much more obscure than that.

viva - thanks for that! I'm really open to ideas and advice. I'm not on an ego trip where I think I know best. I feel like I have to test things out for myself. I've created some tools and want to put them to good use. They've found nothing so far and it's unlikely they will, BUT I feel like I'm gaining knowledge through it. Knowing what doesn't work has saved me a lot of money cos it's typical of me to jump straight in and try things for real.

There are a lot of combinations of things that can be mixed together into some kinda formula. I'm rapidly learning that this formula involves far more than my stupid programs!

sheppy - as has been said on here, the best way to learn about your system is to get stuck in and back it with real money

e.g. for a small bit of work each day, for odds on lays you could use BF SP.  Just put orders into the market on the most likely races and limit your SP say to 1.99 for a fixed stake on each one - use the "Set SP odds limit" function on the betting slip.  That way you should be able to lay each odds-on fav here and can get a long-term picture of how this is going to real money - no backfitting, just real results, to real funds - that's the only way to find out if it is a goer.

TheVis - Thanks! I see your point about betting with real money. It makes sense. Right now I don't have any faith in laying odds on favourites. Or anything to do with horses for that matter!

I've tried several systems for real after they looked good on paper. And they failed miserably! The problem with paper is YOU ALWAYS GET MATCHED!!!

Several months ago before I discovered Timeform I paper traded every horse that was a much bigger price than the bookies. I kept trying different variations on the prices and percentages etc. After about 3 weeks I was about a few hundred quid up off £2 stakes, so dived in and started doing it for real. Then it went completely pear-shaped and I lost money.

When I discovered Timeform it was great cos it meant I could look at the past results without having to spend hours sat in front of my computer.

Laying all odds-on favs on here since 2008 at BSP to level stakes would actually leave you in a slight profit, even after comms.

I had a feeling that you'd be slightly up in the long term laying odds on favourites BUT the work involved has to be taken into consideration.

I feel the same way with laying 1.01s.

Well that's where you decide if it's worth it or not.

I guess though that you've got the excitement of winning to go with it so it's not all bad!

I don't usually bet on things so far ahead but this seemed like a good idea. I'd like your thoughts on it...

I've laid Serena @ 3.8 to win the French open. It'll cost me £5.60 if she wins! I won't sleep tonight!!!

I didn't even realise the French Open markets were already up! I had to look just to check!! It seems Serena has been matched at 1.5 as well as your 3.8. Bizarre goings on!!

shes about 11/10 at the books , so good luck with the 3.8

A lot can change in 11 months though, form, injuries, other players doing well or badly, (she could even retire!!) who knows though.

Seriously sheppy i know its only 2 quid, but what possessed you to lay her at 3.8

and as cdog says its a full eleven months away

there was plenty lost on her today at 1.01



cant stand the woman meself and loved it that the crowd were cheering the lovely sabine

This was one of my spur of the moment posts! I wish I could've deleted it afterwards!

Anyway, my logic is this...

If she doesn't play for any reason I'll win the bet. (I hope!)

And also, if she's not playing that well her odds may increase.

I never even looked at the bookies price. 11/10 is ridiculous!

I know it was only £2 but it all adds up doesn't it!

11/10 wont be far off the betfair price once the proper market forms, you will possibly be looking at around 2.25/2.3

How much do things stay the same though?

This is probably nothing to go at but I backed her @ 4.3 to win the French 2013 about a month before it started. Unfortunately I didn't make much of a profit cos I'd layed her and backed other players.

How much longer is Nadal gonna keep winning the French?

sheppy do you mind me asking, what size bank do you use? you obviously dont need to answer

It's usually around £200-£300.

I often have a lot of money tied up and have to deposit some more.

Because I back a lot of outsiders I don't win very often. However, due to the way Wimbledon has panned out this year things have worked out quite well for me.

If Flipkins wins the tournament (wishful thinking!) I'll get £600. If Bartoli wins I'll get £36.50.

Now they both play each other in the semi's and am worried that Flipkins will lose. So do I lay Flipkins or back Bartoli? I can't decide which is best! It's driving me MAD!

This is where I feel that my poor maths skills affect my betting. I'm actually thinking of doing some kinda maths course to make things better?

you can probably green up all round if thats your position

If you're not so confident with your maths then just wait until the match market for Flipkens v Bartoli is operating close to 100%. Then lay Flipkens or back Bartoli to even your book up and guarantee yourself a nice profit regardless of how that match pans out. If you do this for example an hour before the match starts it won't matter which way round you do it (as there will only be pennies difference at that point due to the market operating efficiently).

HTH

Or just green up (as Scom says above) on the outright market if that's where you're involved.

shep whats your total liability?

go on the what if function, and play around, try laying flipkins at say 50-60 pounds and see what your green is...your green on your other player would then increase as well

or do you want to be in for the long haul?

Thanks for the help guys, it's MUCH appreciated!!!

Thinks have gotten pretty complicated! I've been losing money all through the tournament with the intention of coming off better. Now this might sound a bit crazy but I often do come out on top. Not a lot but I guess it's better than being down!

Sometimes I wish that I could put some bets on and just leave them without messing about. When people ask me how much I've won or lost I can't give them a simple answer!!!

I have been trying to get organized by making a note of all my bets through Wimbledon but things have got a bit out of control!

My bets are with the bookies as well as Betfair so greening up would be a problem?

just lay back about 70 quid on flipper on the outright market. put the offer in at 8.6 and wait for someone to take it. can't see it going lower, especially with 2.4K waiting at 8.4; surprised it's not above 9, actually.

Haha I keep discovering things about Betfair I never knew existed! Thanks scom - I'll have a look at the 'what if' function.

Expect a message in about 10 minutes saying something like... "Where is it, I can't find it!"

Thanks viva, I was thinking along those lines...

in match odds where it says refresh..underneath it says more options..make sure the what if function is ticked, then just play around with your green until youre happy to place your backs/lays

More Options - Display what if figure.

tick that box and it will show you a what if for all bets you enter from then on, before you submit them.

incredibly useful.

yup, just imagine trying to trade without it? doesnt bear thinking about..incidentally do purple have one?

Thanks scom! You're most helpful!

I'll tell you what! I need to go on some kinda Betfair training course cos I'm miles behind!

I found the 'what if' box and it was already ticked. But I don't understand what to do next?

dunno scom - not had a bet there for about 6 years. rumours of its coming to life have been greatly exaggerated

sheppy - what do you see by the runners when you enter a bet, but before you submit it?

do you see the little arrows and red/green figures by all runners?

sheppy if its ticked..go to a match where you dont have a bet..type in a ten pounds bet for one player but dont press submit..now it should green figure for that player and a red figure for the other player..now imagine its in player and the other player is now 6.0 (click the odds till it gets to 6.0) and put 3 pounds on him, again dont press submit..bingo you are all green

#in play, not in player

Thanks viva & scom, you must have the patience of a saint!

I think the penny has finally dropped! Please stop the world so I can catch up!

Yes I see the figures in green! Yippee!!!

I've always seen them but never taken any notice of them. I didn't think of using them in a way that would be really useful. Quick learner eh!?!

just keep backing/laying both options at varying odds and see what happens..try it with your current wimbledon position and see if you can get some profit

OK I will, cheers scom!