ARE YOU STILL IN PROFIT GUSCHER????

Just noticed the post dates.

Would suggest the bullet has already found its target.

I haven't been on here for some time and I'm afraid to say that all you wise guy's were spot on, in that about December last year I had a really bad run and lost all my bank bar £500!!  So you were right as I knew in my heart of hearts increasing stakes for recovery purposes is not the answer!!   So not to be defeated I tried a different approach! Please feel free to shoot me down in flames once again but what about this:

     I only have one laybet a day. If it loses I have made my target profit for the day. If it wins I have lost that day but I spread that loss over the next 3 or 4 days days. I increase my odds range by 50% so that I only get a few bets on per day/or stop at one third or quarter of recovery, but with the increased odds range I should hit fewer winners & with a little luck! this will only happen a few times a month. Although I have had a bad run and it has taken me 21 days (7x3!) to recover (May). But I have made a continual monthly profit so far since January. So I'm not increasing the stake for my recovery bets but just increasing the frequency of bets per day for recovery. I know people don't agree with recovery but I don't see it as recovery as I'm not increasing the stakes. I know it's a bit boring to have only one bet a day and it wouldn't suit everyone's taste, but profit is profit! Has been going well since January with profit running at +£3000 from £30 lay bet with a 90.6 S.R.

   Thanks for reading & good luck, any comments, advice good or bad is very welcome!
Gus

All recovered now, so a small profit for August and no losses for first half of September.

Lets start from basics

You cant chase your losses. eg divide the loss by the odds and add it on to the stake etc etc.
You need value when you bet. Value is when the price you bet at is better than the statistical chance of the event happening.
If you have value then you bet at level stakes and only raise your stake when the bank has cleared its losses.


At the very least you need to know the statistical losing/winning run. You double that figure and divide your bank by that figure to get the safe level of staking.

I like laying favs. Every fav. This is because I like the frequency of bets and the buzz and that my losing runs are short.

I know that 35% of favs win and the average industry starting price for all UK and Ireland favs is 2.75.
I know there has never been 10 consecutive winning favs in uk or ireland racing.
I know it is rare as rocking horse poo to have more than 55% winning favs in a day.
I also know that if I beat the ISP by only 1% and stake 1% of my £500 bank I will over a typical year have over £250k
I genuinely pee myself when i think of 2.5% of my bank and beating ISP by 15% ( which is not hard) eg 2.75 = 2.5

I know I can acheive this in running, or where the fav price is not really a fav eg 4.0 I can do it by laying more than one.
I know that I dont have to get back the whole lost stake, just the part that was unnecessarily over staked. (thats not chasing but bank management over the betting cycle)

I know my missus says that if Im that feckin clever why aint I minted. Well Im not poor, but its because I love a gamble and lose money on those stupid bored bets...

That would make a very short book on 'betting to win' but its all you need to know.

sorry that should read 15% under SP only gets matched 70% of the time

210 beverley designate 6/4 fav matched at 2.22 in running and lost.

230 san dartmouth 9/4 fav won

250 yar fever few 9/4 fav matched at a a low of 1.4 in running and lost

and yesterday? its cyclic....

'Recovery' system....mmmm

If people think their 'recovery systems' are infallible, why don't they abandon the system that needs recovering, and just use the recovery system instead?