General Betting
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The laws of averages
The laws of averages
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WOW! What a great team I've got! Cheers guys for your help, it's much appreciated!
I can understand why people would lay @ small prices, maybe under 50 if you were REALLY sure, BUT laying @ 1000 would just give me sleepless nights! It's like it's gonna take more than 1000 times so find out if it's profitable. Oh yeah - greening! Sometimes something on BF pops up asking me if I wanna green out, but it doesn't do it all the time, is there a reason for this? Also, because my stakes are low, the money I would get is often pennies. I've wondered how much it would come to though at the end of the year if added up? Cos I keep backing and laying without greening and get nothing most of the time! |
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You shouldn't use the bf cashout feature. You get much better value putting up your own prices. As for pennies, if you're making 20p (guaranteed) on a £2 bet, that's a 10% return, which is great. There's no shame in bending over to pick up a penny
 Use the "what if" function under the market "more options" to experiment with prices for greening up, so you can get used to it. Don't actually enter the bets until you are ready though! |
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Thanks 1.01 Layer, that's good to know! I've never changed any settings on Betfair, except the way I view my matched bets etc.
Yes 20p a day would be £73 in a year so it all mounts up! Just out of interest, have you ever won any 1.01 lays? |
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Haha, yes plenty, thanks. Lost a fair few though
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Haha so you've lost about 50p then!
But like you said, it's not about whether they actually win or not. It's how much you make on the trade. I lay short odds a lot and am usually left feeling like an idiot for thinking that I had a chance! But I was celebrating when Nadal lost to Rosol @ 1.02! |
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Kenilworth : Last season my
margin was a notional 20% but the reality was around 7% so with commission at near 5% there wasn't much left for me! I suspect your notional 20% is actually 10% (as in the other thread when you thought 2.2 is 20% value on an evens shot when in fact it is 10%) so 7% wouldn't be that far out. But the 5% commission thing doesn't make sense, i.e. Bet £100 @ 2.14 on a true evens chance (7% value) : LOSE Bet £100 @ 2.14 on a true evens chance {7% value) : WIN Staked : £200 Gross profit : £14 Commission @ 5% : £5.70 Net profit : £8.30 Net profit on turnover : 4.15% So even after paying 5% comm you would have made a good living, it's not a case of simply knocking 5% off of your gross figures. Last year I made a very good sum but it was less than 2% of my turnover, so anyone making 7% but having "not much left for me" I find very hard to understand? |
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Trevh, 2.20 about a 2.0 chance is a 20% margin on
a single bet, i.e. potential profit is 1.20, potential loss is 1.00, 1.20 is 20% bigger than 1.00 that is why I refer to it as 20% margin. As I don't just try to bet 2.00 chances at 2.20, I also bet, say 1.50 chances at 1.60 or better, 2.50 chances at 2.80 or better etc, etc, etc. Prices taken are what I have control over, results I don't, there lies the reason for me not getting much after commission. I hope that clarifies what I am talking about, the use of words.  |
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Trevh 14 Jun 13 01:43
[...] Last year I made a very good sum but it was less than 2% of my turnover, so anyone making 7% but having "not much left for me" I find very hard to understand? Less that 0.5% on turnover for me, and I still pay PC! |
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Investor, perhaps I'm a smaller punter than you, or
I don't have enough qualifiers. |