schom - Do you think Arsenal are too big or too low at the moment?

sorry i meant start with a back, i know they traditionally are slow starters but iv got a gut feeling this will be the season that wenger finally utilises the funds available to him, again im not too sure they will win it but i can see them trading much shorter

I must say, Im surprised at the level of respect, if not optimism, that surrounds Arsenal on this thread. They've only just recently struggled to get the Champions league and even that required a 2 month good spell that was littered with 1-0 wins whilst hardly playing scintillating stuff.

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the reasons the market's sniffing around arsenal are:

1 persistent stories that they finally have money to spend and are pursuing higher level players than recently.
2 no key players on the way out
3 the three shorter teams all having new managers.

if you look at the last couple of seasons as beginning as damage limitation exercises and ending up with title winning form, there should be no damage to limit this august, meaning they might run the others closer.

personally, I think the price is about right. single digits would be too short, anything over 16s and they'd be tempting.

well, if not they got more points last season without any than the previous two.

Thanks all for your responses.

A lot of this optimism seems to surround the "paper talk" of transfer season. This is understandable with no actual matches to digest and discuss, especially with no major summer tournament on.

However, I should divulge the enormous chip on my shoulder when it comes to transfer season :) Time and again, for years now, Ive seen markets, pundits, press and fans over-react to who has come in and who has left etc.

Also, last years winning points total was nothing unusual:

2013 - 89 pts
2012 - 89 pts
2011 - 80 pts
2010 - 86 pts
2009 - 90 pts
2008 - 87 pts

Arsenal finished 4 pts behind the winner in 2007/2008. Since then, every season, they've been substantially behind the winners. And if anything, have got slowly worse each year. In my view, heavy investment is required here simply to stop the rot.

No key players expected to leave is a start but its hardly a reason to be more positive about them now - it was a reason to be more negative in previous seasons. Ie, I see that's a neutral signal.

I also have a suspicion the market is using the 3 new managers aspect as a bit of an excuse, especially as two of them have substantial Premiership experience and one of which even has it at the same club.

Well, to keep people posted (as requested earlier), Ive decided to go ahead with this but since my OP, the market is indicating better opening positions. Current back prices show 87.5% of the book as opposed to 88.7% at the time of the OP.

My entry point for Chelsea was 3.55 and was matched but amazingly, my cheeky scalping attempt to steal a tick was matched at 3.5 (thanks to whoever ploughed into them in the early hours of this morning!) Obviously, this means I know need to start all 3 bets again.

I now have 3 entry bets in (all currently unmatched) but if they are successful, they'd represent a 84.2% of the book, paying a 17.8% "interest rate" if successful. No doubt this is all subject to change and to complete the trio, Ill have to nudge at least one into a shorter price, which in turn, would lead to smaller payouts but Im comfortable with plan (at the moment anyway!)

Part 1 has started, part 2 (the bit where Bale and Suarez go abroad and we find out Arsenal had their money in a Cypriot bank all this time) should be with us soon :)

In the last season, if Everton and Utd completely swapped players would Everton have won the league??? It sounds ridiculous but I'm just trying to make my point about Fergie?

I wanna back Utd cos I think their odds are good, but need good reasoning before.

JPG - You've confirmed all my thoughts and I definitely think Utd are good value. For a team that's never finished out of the top 3 1.34 looks good.

Haha yes £6 - you'd make a couple of quid though!

Yes I've noticed that in some of those markets. How can City be shorter odds than Utd when they're bigger to win the league?

That's Betfair for you!

Sorry, I was looking at the top3 market damn it! I thought Spurs looked too big!!!

Thanks JPG, it's nice to be updated on things!

I'm not interested in City at the moment. I've been looking into doing something with Spurs.

Backed Everton to finish in top 6 with Victor @ 5.5. I personally thought they were good odds. 5 is the best price now.

Haha you must be a mind reader!

Yes, I don't like my money tied up for too long either. I only usually have about £300 to play with and I don't really wanna deposit any more.

I'll be honest, I've got £35 on Utd now. I'd already put a bit on them before I asked for your advice. Good job you didn't say "No! Whatever you do, don't back them!"

I don't know when I'm gonna stop. I think £100 would be nice! Knowing my luck they'll be 1.4 next week!

Thanks JPG, it's always the greatest of pleasures to hear from you!

I bet Utd to finish in the top 3 last season was much shorter? It seems like there's a lot of emphasis on Fergie not being there?

It kinda freaks me out how it's the same teams every year that end the season at the top end of the league. It's like fate almost! I'm not a big football fan and I haven't got Sky so don't get to watch many games. I do know that there's a lot of luck involved, as well as skill of course. So often it could go either way but it seems typical that Utd will win! You could roll a dice 6 times and get 6 sixes!

If Utd don't do that well, it will benefit my other bets so all is not lost. People only think there's 4 teams in the league!

Haha I also come up with justifications for my betting like, "I could spend that on a good night out!"

Sheppy,

I notice you can now lay off/trade out your Man Utd backs at 1.34 by laying at 1.33. You can also be the first in the q by laying at 1.31 to make a further 2 ticks profit.

However, Id only recommend you do is if either one of these things is true:

1) You now believe a lay of Man Utd at 1.31 represents a value bet in itself (or neutral anyway)
2) You believe the freed up funds (by closing the trade at profit) can be put to better use in the mean time.

Reason number 2 is more likely, if at all. Either reason would crystallise all or some of the value you identified earlier, albeit for low amounts. I also see an added risk/opportunity for closing out with a view to going back in at a later date with Man Utd's first 3 games being quite tough and therefore, price sensitive results.

By the way, if you fancy laying some money on Man City at 1.31, it'll be appreciated :)

Further to the top 3 betting, I notice Spurs are shorter then Liverpool in the top 4 market, yet on the outright winner market, they are the other way around.

A quick glance across the books shows a similar pattern although not quite so much divergence as compared to BF.

Am I missing something here? The markets seem to be saying that if Spurs are in the hunt, they're more likely to last the pace to get in top 4 then if Liverpool were in the same spot BUT if they lose ground, they're more likely to fall faster then Liverpool.

Im more then willing to accept this as a dynamic within betting in theory but does this situation really qualify? Or of so, to the extent implied by the current market?

What am I missing with this folks?

The lack of liquidity will explain the relatively large spreads between back and lay but theres enough to see the market forming around what Ive described above.

Even the fixed odds firms are showing this "discrepancy."

If we assume the outright market is broadlyh "correct" with Liverpool just slightly shorter then Spurs, then why is there around £1100 trying to back Spurs for a top 4 at 3.2 yet theres solid laying money around Liverpool up to 3.85?

this thread says all that needs to be said about the market and the top 4-6 teams. the differences in opinion and the plethora of uncertainty means that i will not be betting just yet on this market. there are just too many uncertainties.

i think liverpool are pretty short but would have a word of caution in laying them pre season. if you look at the fixtures liverpool have a very comfortable start, if you are going to lay i would suggest waiting as there price may well contract prior to december

as usual kenilworth spouting rubbish or is deliberately trying to be argumentative, i suspect the latter. i guarantee you that if liverppol take say 33pts out of the first possible 42 pts their price will contract. individual matches do not necessarily impact on the outright markets

hence my point, look can we bury this hatchet once and for all your sniping at most things i post is ridiculous and tiresome.

lets move on and try to exchange useful betting information that is of benefit and not negative in its very nature