General Betting
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At the time of writing, odds of the respective teams are 3.3, 3.5 and 3.35. This is 88.7% of the book.
Now, I appreciate with a transfer window still to elapse, not to mention a season of variables, theres risk attached but Im still surprised these three teams aren't nearer the 95% mark of the book.
Another way of looking at it is that its a risky saving opportunity that can yield over 12% (even assuming 5% commission). In fact, its not beyond the realms of possibility that the yield could be guaranteed courtesy of trading from around January onwards.
Are Arsenal, Liverpool and co really posting that much threat to the title next season? Am I missing something obvious? (Don't get me wrong here, by no means am I stating "dead cert" etc but right now,
Now, I appreciate with a transfer window still to elapse, not to mention a season of variables, theres risk attached but Im still surprised these three teams aren't nearer the 95% mark of the book.
Another way of looking at it is that its a risky saving opportunity that can yield over 12% (even assuming 5% commission). In fact, its not beyond the realms of possibility that the yield could be guaranteed courtesy of trading from around January onwards.
Are Arsenal, Liverpool and co really posting that much threat to the title next season? Am I missing something obvious? (Don't get me wrong here, by no means am I stating "dead cert" etc but right now,
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88.7% seems high enough to me
The Gap between Top 3 and the rest was not that spectacular to be thinking they cannot be passed , none of them were that good last season (yes United went a long way clear but they were flattered by that, so many 1 goal wins) Without Ferguson i cannot see anything but a decline for United , City seem to have too many players without hunger to win more . Mourinho could still have issues with being expected to pick players he don't rate (this Schurrle guy has already been signed apparently without any say so from a manager) A lot depends on whether Spurs/Liverpool keep Bale/Suarez , who else they bring in ,and who Arsenal might sign Those 3 might still look well short of Title Calibre but the bar is much lower than it was 5 years ago so i would not back the top 3 @1/8 or whatever you are planning. |
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The top three will have new managers and that cannot be the
perfect situation to be betting at 1/8. There are question marks against all three new coaches for different reasons and broadly speaking I agree with tobermory. |
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It's so tempting to Dutch back all three of them.
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Thanks for the responses.
Some good points and I definitely agree that Man Utd's winning margin flattered them this season. That side was sub par of many of the previous Fergie teams. However, I genuinely feel Man City and Chelsea, for differing reasons, will post stronger challenges next season. Man City had the hangover having won it in 2011/12 and Chelsea's distractions and fixture list pile up are well known and documented. And even with the relatively poor Man Utd team last season, they were clearly ahead of Arsenal and below. The new managers don't seem to be a negative for me either, if anything, a more positive omen? Two of the three new guys have extensive Premiership experience too. I suppose much of my thinking stems from my view that the other teams are too far away from being "winning level." I certainly expect Liverpool, for example, to improve on last season but the distance (in terms of both league points and level of play on the pitch) is quite substantial for them to overcome in just one season in order to scupper the titled bet. Two of the leagues strongest performers last season in Bale and Suarez have doubts over their future which only add more doubt of their teams overcoming the hurdles. Framed another way, 8/1 that anyone not listed in the thread title to win it? Hhhmm, seems more lay value to me then neutral or back. Thanks again for the responses. |
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arsenal are the unknown. the market is pricing in uncertainty about their financial power over the closed season. plus the fact that all three of the 3.x clubs have new managers.
also to a lesser extent how effectively liverpool and spurs might spend big windfalls. and the usual little bit of inflation due to the time your money would likely be tied up. |
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Looks a good call this jpg. Do you not think chelsea are a bit short though there not going to win the league with torres and ba leading the attack imo. I layed chelsea in this market last season for the same reason they had a strong start but I felt something had to give. I suppose though mourinho will be after a new forward though wont he? If he doesn't sign one I will be laying them
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Smithy,
Yeah you could be right about the Chelsea lay value or if not, some neutrality existing. Obviously Mourinho momentum in the past few weeks has hardened the price downwards but the fact that theres solid amounts of cash on both sides of the book for them suggests you could be right. However, assuming my thread title/OP is correct in that value exists, then the collective value there is likely to more then the lay value existing on Chelsea. And with Chelsea being an obvious threat to win, Id be happy to sacrifice the relatively small amount of value on Chelsea to encompass the overall 3 team group on my side. Another angle on all of this is, assume some one dutched back all three teams, are there any realistic trading approaches assuming this starting position/opening trade? |
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yes, wait for the other three semi-realistic runners to drift, then lay all three back to an all green book.
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Cheers .jpg well I don't have the balls to dutch all three I'm having visions of another invincibles from arsenal and winning the title coming from nowhere. However this thread has got me thinking I was expecting to find Liverpool trading at 60 but they are 36.now I can't leave that alone. Same thing happened last season they were trading at 27 got tanked 3-0 away at west brom on opening day and drifted to 80 lol. I'd be quite happy to leave 5k red on them even though it's not ideal to tie that much money up.what do others think surely Liverpool are to short chances are I'd be trading out much higher less than a month into the new season!
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Viva,
Do you believe such an occurrence is possible even before the season starts? Or are you talking more of a generic, throughout the season type of thing? |
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who knows? probably, but then if arsenal signed someone of the rooney level it might go the other way.
worth pointing out that taking out the absolute no hopers it's actually a 100.3% book, so probably some value on the back side somewhere. |
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Jpg are you planning to keep this thread going through the season would be good if you are really want to get invloved this year with the winner market. A quick question to! Does anyone know any traders who trade the winner market heavily whilst the 3pm kickoffs are in play. Surely money to be made there I would of thought?
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hopefully the thread will run through the season and as long as the trolls stay away, it should be entertaining..personally i think arsenal will go close next season without actually winning it...liverpool have to be laid at any price
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yes, I agree - arsenal have a slim but real chance next season.
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I'm not a big football fan but the difference in odds between Liverpool @ Everton doesn't seem right to me?
Liverpool @ 34 Everton @ 530 |
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Sweet Liverpool are 36 pure value lay I've got to get involved there. Suarez future uncertain aswell. Having said that I was quite impressed with them after sturridge signed he's class him.worse case scenario Liverpool hovering around topspot half way through season I will red out :(
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trust me, you wont have to red out
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Was thinking exactly the same sheppy!
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Was thinking exactly the same sheppy!
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Liverpool have next to no chance of winning the title. 34s is a screaming lay me price. It's just a very poor return though over 9 months.
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True darlo. I'm trying to think like every penny counts so going to lay them big. It's the closest thing to free money I think. If they do win it I will quit gambling and find something else to do :)
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you won't have to wait 9 months if they're three figures by november though.
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Yes viva and I will trade out to get my funds back in the bank!
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12% is a lot compared to what you'd get in a bank!
I've been playing about with figures since I read this post. For me the biggest drag would be having my money tied up for a long time. It might be worth lumping more money on the team you fancy and just getting your money back for the others? Or a slight loss even? Chelsea are 3.5 with the bookies so there wouldn't be any commission. |
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Smithy,
I originally created the thread to spark debate on a proposition/opportunity that Im genuinely considering (although I haven't acted on it at all yet) and thought it worthwhile to squeeze out some other info/perspectives that hadn't occurred to me. However, Im quite prepared to keep the thread updated of my own developments if others would like to hear about it :) By the way, the prem winner market is actively traded during games throughout the season but obviously has a different dynamic to other football markets. Ive dabbled in it myself at low stake values but there is opportunity out there. |
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Cheers jpg thats a great help. I think this season starting with low stakes it could be time to get involved when games are in play!
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Sheppy I'm pretty sure there will.be a handful of punters on here who lay liverpool massive every season for the title likewise when England get the world cup lol. 12% is resonable :)
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Laying @ big odds scares the crap out of me, and although laying Liverpool seems like easy money, I'd be on edge thinking that it's just my luck they'd perform a miracle!
My problem is this... You could successfully lay Liverpool for the next 10 years but then they win and you've made a big loss. |
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True enough sheepy I suppose if dominance started to switch back you would have to be careful. If suarez stays sturridge goes up another level coutinho takes off I could be redding out lol. You never know.
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You're right. You can't look at this lay in isolation. Laying big odds is the reverse of backing short odds. You have to do it enough times to pay for the times when it blows up in your face. Personally, I think Liverpool should be a lot longer than 34, certainly three figures, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that they do win it.
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more or less, tobes. you do get bits left up though, especially early season.
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I can't see the attraction in a single big odds lay on this and just leaving it (or trading out at a particular point).
No harm laying big prices when the selection should be a lot bigger but much better to commit to the market, back and lay everything, be involved all through the season. I do that for Euros/World Cups but they only last a month, would like to do it on this but , yes , it's a long time to to have whatever amount tied up. btw Liverpool are 16/1 with Coral  |
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Last year I got 3.5 on united which was stupidly big. You would have thought after all these years of them dominating, and man city being very lucky to win, that they should have been favorites. This year I see them as a lay. Ferguson was the key, and at the odds Chelsea look the value to me.
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when did you get the 3.5? before or after rvp chose them? before or after city made an unfathomable b0llocks of the summer transfer market?
prices on winners often look stupidly big after the fact. it doesn't mean they were. I can make a decent case for all three of the front runners - and a weaker but tenable case for arsenal; which to me suggests the prices aren't that far out. |
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I also got 3.5 for United and I've just looked it up so I could help out. It was in May 2012 so it was before RVP.
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After van Persie signed united went 3.2 and below I think
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put everything you have on chelsea to win the league. and a decent sum to cover your stakes on arsenal. and dont forget to remember and thank me at the end of the season
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the more i think about it, the more im thinking arsenal could be a terrific opening trade
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