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who shapes betting markets??!

TheJudge

17 Feb 13 09:47

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Date Joined: 04 Jul 07

| Topic/replies: 3,457 | Blogger: TheJudge's blog

just out of interest, I suppose it varies sport to sport but I was just after opinions as to what shapes a betting market thesedays

large statistical modelling system players?
general betting public?
bookmakers odds compilers?
combination?
other?

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Replies: 8

By:

SHAPESHIFTER When: 17 Feb 13 10:19

When I moved here just over a decade ago, the variety of odds on offer from shop to shop was noticeable. I used to pick up the weekend sheets and hi lite the best prices.

It's all different and five years ago, I started asking the same thing.

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American sports (American football, basketball and baseball) - believe it or not, Asian market.

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https://www.betradar.com/betting-solutions/lifecycle-of-odds/odds-suggestions

for football.

Find the fact that the initial opening prices for horses are more or less down to one person (heard an interview in the past two weeks about this. Will try to remember where and if a link is possible, will post).

By:

U.A. When: 17 Feb 13 10:20

depends on what time you are looking at the market, 5 days before start, 1 day, 3 hours 2 mins or actually in-play?

By:

TheJudge When: 17 Feb 13 11:00

interesting one SS, with the horse racing the variability and volatile nature of the sport doesn't lend itself to statistical modelling and those markets I would assume are shaped by a combination of opinion and insider knowledge whereas with football betting over the course of a large sample the outliers or noise in the data will be just that and a statistical modelling system will be much effective at forecasting and pricing

U.A see what you're saying, the timeframes are quite interesting 2 mins before the off would be incorporating all the above though no? and the price would come to reflect all the available information from all market participants and the true price(EMH), or do you think some large market makers i.e traders or big players move it near the off?

By:

Darlo Bantam When: 17 Feb 13 11:16

Depending on the liquidity, large players certainly change the odds at the off. Watch a horse race, and you'll often see large amounts of money come in right before the off moving the market sometimes several ticks.

By:

kenilworth When: 17 Feb 13 14:10

Compilers followed by the market forces.

By:

artie When: 17 Feb 13 17:07

"large players certainly change the odds at the off....".The problem is we have no idea whether these large players are backers/layers , or simply traders moving out of positions.
"horse racing..doesn't lend itself to statistical modelling".For many years RSB produced very accurate odds lines via statistical modelling.

By:

SHAPESHIFTER When: 17 Feb 13 17:43

Feb 17, 2013 -- 2:10PM, kenilworth wrote:

Compilers followed by the market forces.

When you say 'compilers', do you mean companies who provide the prices or the individual bookmaker compilers?

Of late, the trend seems to be that companies are compiling then passing onto the bookmakers.

From there, it feels like the individual bookmakers then look at the markets and create their "deals" based on this rather than shifting the odds.

When I paid to bet on the 'big six' for a year, I used to look at the odds and see where they were pushing out to 'tempt' people when they were more competitive. Of course, the value would be knocked off on the other side but it was worth 'shopping around'.

U.S. sports - big money comes from New Jersey/New York and Toronto. Watch just before games from the east coast and over to Buffalo and Detroit. Someone is getting on the phone because odds just push in and layers will disappear.

Horse racing: again, watch New Jersey / New York and Florida tracks if you want to watch the money come down. I used to sit watching the volume on refresh and 'wait' for the one play of the night. Incredible when you realize short people with bad fashion are all collectively walking up to the plexi-glass at the same time.

By:

catflmasppo When: 17 Feb 13 19:05

The markets cn only be shaped by people cherry picking at bets they think are value.