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Pro punting - are you still making it pay?

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Replies: 49
By:
chatlame
When: 21 Dec 12 14:20
Who can earn £100 per working hour excluding commision a.s.o.?
By:
chatlame
When: 21 Dec 12 14:23
Say £10 instead?
By:
kenilworth
When: 21 Dec 12 17:07
Perhaps the odious nortons wouuld offer some words
of wisdom, but I don't think it will happen, being
as it took him nearly a full day to come up with
his snidy 7 word comment. Gone back under his stone
methinks.
By:
chatlame
When: 21 Dec 12 19:06
Talk about that, this is a little bit off topic, but I just
fell in sleep for 20 minutes and it felt like I had been
sleeping for about 1 hour and 30 minutes. I don't think I
have experienced that before.
By:
JLivermore
When: 21 Dec 12 19:50
20 mins is the best short period of time to take a nap for.  Otherwise a nap should be 2ish hours... anywhere in between and you will wake up groggy...
By:
U.A.
When: 21 Dec 12 20:18
If you find yourself in front of a Greek football match then the best time for a nap is at least 90 minutes.
By:
nortons
When: 21 Dec 12 20:25
Nauseous KEN, there is absolutely no reason to offer any words of wisdom...you have obviously got the game by the short and curlies,pity there are not more live games for you to utilise your vast knowledge.
By:
kenilworth
When: 21 Dec 12 23:39
Thanks for that nort.
By:
Freelance
When: 22 Dec 12 22:54
Can you hear that ?






I think it's the sounds of another good thread being murdered.
By:
Liscarroll
When: 23 Dec 12 00:53
If you're planning on coming up with a betting system, keep in mind the figure of 105, which I call my productivity rate. If the average odds of your wins multiplied by your win rate is over 105, chances are you have a system that will eventually make you money. For example, if your average winning odds are 2.20 and your strike rate is 50%, that's 2.2 x 50 = 110 so it's a profitable system.

I test my systems over hundreds of bets and model different scenarios with average odds, strike rate and average number of bets per day. This enables me, over time, to see how profitable a system might be and, importantly, how likely it might be to bust out.

I'm testing out a system at the moment with a productivity rate of 111. My model tells me that until I reach a certain level of bank and then cap my stakes at a fixed amount, it will bust out, on average, 2 times first. The system isn't flawed, it's just that there's always the 'black swan' - a catastrophic run of bets out there ready to ruin your day. That's just a mathematical inevitibility.

Again, I would also stress the importance of starting small. The minimum stake here is £2 - make full use of it and don't bet more than 2% of your available betting bank at a time, at least not until you can accurately model the effect higher percentages are likely to have on your bank.
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