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The S.A.D.O. thread (Sad, Aftertiming, Delusionals Only)

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By:
smithy91
When: 07 Dec 14 21:24
came very close to landing the 2-2 aswell!Cry

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Correct Score  2 - 2 Lay 44251519471 07-Dec-14
13:55    C 17.5  861.00   17.5 861.00 

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Correct Score  2 - 2 Back 44251493745 07-Dec-14
13:55    C 18.5  861.52   18.5 (861.52)
By:
smithy91
When: 07 Dec 14 21:33
not sure how to play Southampton vs man united. current odds saints 2.92 man united 2.64 the draw 3.55. I reckon saints could get backed purely based on the Asian force behind them! just like Leicester. they don't go off form this lot who rule our markets. look at Leicester today 3.5 into 2.98 with no wins in 9 again no logic. so saints in a bit of poor form will it affect anything. no I don't think it will. wouldn't be surprised if we see saints go off favourites it could happen. man united are shorter than man city to win their. city were 2.7 at kickoff united are 2.64. seems a bit weird to me this. I won't be touching match odds with a bargepole but all this uncertainty makes correct score a pain to trade. then look at under/over 2.5. unders only very marginal fave at 1.96 so that's also on a knifedge. i'm waiting for match odds to move in the morning before making my move in what will be an extremely competitive market
By:
smithy91
When: 07 Dec 14 21:40
good call on stoke beating arsenal rob you were rightHappy the gunners defence excelling themselves on the road againGrin
By:
Rob_The_Bantam
When: 07 Dec 14 22:41
Thing is, United are shorter than City as market was unsure how Saints would cope with City.  As it was, they got mauled by ten men and have since lost at Arsenal, so was always bound to affect the prices of this match.  But, like you, I'm staying away at the moment.  Nothing appeals.
By:
smithy91
When: 09 Dec 14 11:17
Laying 1-1 @ 6.8 juventus vs atletico madrid today.  6.8 is as low as a 1-1 can go pretty much so I've put a wall of steel at 6.8 today! 3-1 dortmund 11.5-12 looks good to me vs anderlecht.  Liverpool vs basle looks awful. If I had to stick my neck out I'd say unders are value at 2.1. Liverpool don't score at anfield anymore. Galatasary vs arsenal.  Arsenal have already named their team and sanogo is playing. Sanogo always tends to bring unders in and seen as unders starts off high I reckon we see an unders crash pre off 2.26 into 2.1. I'm laying 2-2 @ 14.5 in that game!
By:
smithy91
When: 11 Dec 14 09:31
Not many people will have been looking forward to besiktas vs Tottenham this week but I have I think there's a decent chance to make money on it! In the reverse fixture at white hart lane besiktas where huge at 5/1 to win but unfortunately they lacked a cutting edge in front of goal even with former chelsea hitman demba ba playing the lone striker.  Eventually they scored a deserved equaliser from the penalty spot and the game ended 1-1! Now I quite like the look of this 2.4 on besiktas to win tonight but there's a problem demba ba is injured so from what I saw during the reverse fixture I'm not convinced they have the cutting edge to score goals against spurs. For Tottenham a draw is perfect they top the group of qualify as the seeded team. Besiktas need to beat spurs to finish above them. So spurs will come for a draw tonight I believe so it looks nailed on under 2.5 goals at 1.79 with everything taken into consideration.  0-0 @ 11 and 1-1 @ 7.4 is where I want green in correct score.  Arsenal played at besiktas in a champs league qualifier back in august. That game was 0-0 as even the likes of alexis sanchez couldn't find a way past besiktas's stubborn defence. Roll on 6pm!
By:
smithy91
When: 11 Dec 14 09:44
Demba ba has scored 9 of his sides 13 goals in their last 6 games. Says it all really besiktas talisman has a broken toe and misses out tonight # under 2.5 goals
By:
green army
When: 11 Dec 14 13:24
smithy I did spurs 3.7 in to 3.25 and everton 1.97 to 1.77 - Europa league my best comp lately
By:
guernseyw
When: 11 Dec 14 15:37
http://www.itv.com/news/granada/2014-12-11/do-you-know-these-men-cctv-released-after-football-disorder/

hope your not on gallery row smithy haha !!!
By:
smithy91
When: 11 Dec 14 18:44
great work ga. I never expected that gamble on everton would never of picked that out myself.Happy

Guernsey- nothing to do with me thatBlushHappy
By:
smithy91
When: 11 Dec 14 18:49
that's what happens when you let 8,000 leeds fans loose in Blackburn on a Saturday afternoon guernsey. it's their biggest away following of the season Blackburn away because they know they can run riot and nothing is done lolPlain
By:
smithy91
When: 18 Dec 14 10:54
Tickets for the Liverpool vs arsenal 2-2 train have now gone on sale! We are setting off today from platform 15 having a brief stop at platform 14.5 before arriving at our destination which is anfield platform 14 at approximately 3pm on sunday. There is a 10 % chance our train might derail and we have to abort at platform 15 but there's only a small chance that will happen as both Liverpool and arsenal do not have any defenders that are capable of defending and stopping the opposition from scoring so goals are widely expected on sunday. I am smithy91 your train conductor over the next few days and I wish everyone I safe journey. Choo chooHappy
By:
green army
When: 19 Dec 14 22:21
my trades are 3-1 and 3-0 utd, w ham 1-0 at 10s and Ipswich match odds 3.0 v boro
By:
smithy91
When: 22 Dec 14 09:18
Won £1148 on Liverpool vs arsenal 2-2 :) bit rough today to say the least :)
By:
smithy91
When: 22 Dec 14 09:34
Not sure what to do with stoke vs chelsea tonight. Chelsea at 1.65 look bang on to me I expect them to get the job done but in fairness they are prone to an away stinker.  Vs Newcastle away and vs Sunderland away will stick in my memory all season.  Also if we look at stoke they have beaten arsenal,  Tottenham and man city this season so they have proven they can mix it with the big boys!  Wouldn't like to write them off!
By:
smithy91
When: 22 Dec 14 10:10
Come to think of it chelsea can't be trusted at 1.63 stoke are a strange side these days lose at home to small teams and beat the big teams. Might dutch crouch and bojan at big prices to score first. Last time I backed crouch to score first he bagged a header vs Newcastle at home on monday night football.
By:
green army
When: 22 Dec 14 10:17
well done on that smithy, drinks are on you - I've got a reasonable wedge on 2-2 stoke tonite at 24, layed some last night at 22 but its rebounded back
By:
smithy91
When: 22 Dec 14 11:27
Cheers ga. I've managed to get 80 green on stoke vs chelsea 2-2 so far it's a score I want to be on also at the prices. I layed 23 backed 24 had to approach from the lay side. I'm front of the queue laying 0-0 @ 11.5 but only got £66 matched hoping to green at 12.5 but will be a very long wait to get 12.5 matched as 6k infront of me. It looks as though I will have to straight back 1-1 @ 9.4 with £20. I don't feel comfortable trading that scoreline whatsoever way to volatile with chelsea appearing to be backed in.
By:
smithy91
When: 22 Dec 14 12:01
Trying to lay 3-0 chelsea 13-13.5 to short for my liking I don't think chelsea will have it that straightforward!  Should be 15 minimum!
By:
smithy91
When: 27 Dec 14 15:50
last weeks monster 2-2 bet on Liverpool vs arsenalGrin

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44685518021 21-Dec-14
16:04    C 14  5.00   14 65.00 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44685474644 21-Dec-14
16:03    C 14  30.00   14 390.00 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44685322350 21-Dec-14
16:01    C 13  34.85   13 (418.20) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44683638232 21-Dec-14
15:27    C 14  200.00   14 2,600.00

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44683344152 21-Dec-14
15:23    C 14  200.00   14 2,600.00

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44682370845 21-Dec-14
15:08    C 14  20.00   14 260.00 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44668800063 21-Dec-14
11:30    C 13.5  400.00   13.5 (5,000.04) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44668776338 21-Dec-14
11:30    C 14  500.00   14 (6,500.00) 
 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44653080935 20-Dec-14
19:07    C 14  200.00   14 (2,600.00) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44590217326 19-Dec-14
09:26    C 14.5  1,000.00   14.5 13,500.04 

 
  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44585225631 18-Dec-14
21:42    C 14  100.00   14 (1,300.00) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44585214654 18-Dec-14
21:42    C 14  100.00   14 (1,300.00)
By:
smithy91
When: 27 Dec 14 15:53
this is me panicking in last few mintutes fortunately mingolet halted santi cazorla. I had to walk away from my mates in the pub to concentrate lol.

Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691054351 21-Dec-14
17:56    C 1.04  100.00   1.04 (4.00) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691044716 21-Dec-14
17:56    C 1.06  100.00   1.06 (6.00)

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691036483 21-Dec-14
17:56    C 1.07  100.00   1.07 (7.00)

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691028106 21-Dec-14
17:56    C 1.11  100.00   1.11 (11.00)
 
  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691016366 21-Dec-14
17:55    C 1.12  100.00   1.12 (12.00)
 
  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691005147 21-Dec-14
17:55    C 1.14  100.00   1.14 (14.00) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44690990220 21-Dec-14
17:55    C 1.17  200.00   1.17 (34.00)
By:
smithy91
When: 27 Dec 14 16:08
train tickets have now gone on sale for the Tottenham vs man united 2-2 train at 14! two teams evenly matched and goals are expected it only means one thing. a 2-2 packout! harry kane is on fire at the minute for spurs so we have to give him his customary goal. likewise wayne rooney he's also on fire for Manchester united so we'll give him a goal aswell! these two sides keep going over 2.5 goals so overs at 1.75 is going to attract many punters including me. if we look at both sides past results there is a lot of 2-1 1-2 results so we just need an extra goal from somewhere to get this 2-2 and I think there is enough firepower on show to get it!

Leicester 1-2 tottenham
Tottenham 1-2 stoke
Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle
aston villa 1-2 Tottenham
hull city 1-2 Tottenham
Tottenham 2-1 burnley
Tottenham 2-1 everton.

Man united 2-1 stoke
Southampton 1-2 man united
man united 2-1 west ham
west brom 2-2 man united
arsenal 1-2 man united


as we can see here quite big over 2.5 trends and a lot of 2-1 1-2 results. I quite like 2-1 Tottenham at 13 would be great to get that onside but 2-1 united at 9.8 looks a great lay with a view to trade higher I reckon we see the big 1-2 layer arrive tomorrow and force it upto 10.5 catching loads of traders out in the process forcing them to panic and trade out for a loss. I will stick to my 2-2 at 13/1 though I think it's great value!
By:
stevo1
When: 29 Dec 14 00:31
Oh dear
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Dec 14 09:16
Can't get every result right unfortunately!  Two good goalkeepers on display yesterday in dea gea and lloris . You can't land a 13/1 shot every week :)
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Dec 14 09:21
I went to blackburn vs Middlesbrough at ewood park yesterday was a great game even though was 0-0 and Middlesbrough should of won. A solid defence Middlesbrough have got and four quality strikers in vossen, ****, wilschaaf and patrick bamford. There's no better team than Middlesbrough in the championship and I welcome them to the premier league season next season with a 1st or 2nd placed finish nailed on. Derby and bournemouth are not as good as Middlesbrough imo!
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Dec 14 10:01
Liverpool vs swansea seems priced up pretty much as it should be. I reckon for straight betting punters 5.6 on swansea looks big! I'm market making 2-1 Liverpool 9.2-10. This will be one of the most popular scorelines in the market so I'm going to be up against some of the premier leagues biggest correct score traders. I'm front of queue 9.4-9.6 laying whilst backing 9.8!
By:
ZEALOT
When: 29 Dec 14 14:05
Smithy

How much do you hope to green up for before kick off ?
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Dec 14 16:41
hi zealot. I leave all my green on the designated score i'm trading. if I lose overall on the correct score market I like to take an equal red on all scores. I try and get 4-5 scores onside for big premier league live games but it's always that easy. for example today for Liverpool vs Swansea the market isn't really giving enough signals as to whether it wants unders or overs which Is making life difficult.
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Dec 14 16:42
sorry that should say it's NOT always that easy!
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Dec 14 16:43
i'm hoping for £400 green on 2-1 Liverpool!
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Dec 14 16:52
I was sat at 9.8 for 6 hours on 2-1 and only got £450 matched. this was a clear indication the market wanted it and would drop into 9.4 at somepoint which I where it is now. it could go into 9 if punters go crazy. I've seen it before with Liverpool games the 2-1 gets steamrollered when their odds on at home!
By:
smithy91
When: 29 Dec 14 17:00
one thing you have in your favour using this pmt tool is betfair don't react until SBObet and pinnacle have moved their lines and as part of the pmt subscription it has pinnacle and sbobet prices right next to each other constantly updating aswell which is a really handy!
By:
ZEALOT
When: 29 Dec 14 17:18
Cheers  smithy - like the idea of pre match trading on the football .

You must have spent some watching the markets ??
By:
ZEALOT
When: 29 Dec 14 17:18
^^ time ha
By:
smithy91
When: 30 Dec 14 08:51
Yes zealot I've been on betfair since march 2010 so spent a good few years watching the markets. This season though is the first one I feel totally in control of what I am doing.  I have a set criteria now for certain games and just copy the same procedure each time. Eg capital one cup and europa league games are prone to being very volatile so most of my trades are approached from the lay side with a view to back higher up! Also these type of games are lower liquidity so I sometimes pick one scoreline to manipulate pack it out and get matched on both sides. Make sure it's done before team news because anything can happen then and remove the position hopefully by that point the score is nicely greened.  When team news arrives and everything goes a bit crazy I  make new entries then mostly lays to catch the very bottom of a trend before it bounces back up and you can green out!
By:
smithy91
When: 30 Dec 14 08:56
I always try and think what scores will the average punter want to be on. So 2-2s and 3-1s are very punter friendly scores and for certain prem games they work perfect by backing them early doors!
By:
Peter.Hart
When: 30 Dec 14 15:09
Have you moved to another forum smithy? there doesnt seem to be as much activity on this thread anymore with chat between you and ga etc..
By:
ZEALOT
When: 30 Dec 14 19:13
Cheers smithy - having January off from betting so might have a little look at the footy markets .
By:
smithy91
When: 31 Dec 14 11:49
No worries zealot. Yes peter I've moved to another forum kind of! As part of my pre match trading subscription you get acesss to their chatroom were me and other traders chat on throughout the day and share ideas etc. I've learnt a lot more on their than I expected off  other traders massively improving my trades starting from the lay side of the correct score market. Knowing were the holding points are etc where it's unlikely to break through. It cost £220 from august 2014 to june 2015 was the best money I've spent ever I think!
By:
smithy91
When: 31 Dec 14 11:55
Looking at the Southampton vs arsenal game tommorow and the 2-2 price at 17.5-18.5 looks right at the top of the range of the market!  Unders already 1.9 I'm not sure they should be much shorter than that. Arsenal's last two away games were 2-1 winners at west ham and a 2-2 draw with Liverpool both these sides are on a similar level to Southampton.  Rather than backing 1-1 @ 7.4 I'd rather take more than double the odds by backing 2-2 17.5-18.5. Southampton normally good for a goal at home likewise arsenal are away so that's were I'm going tommorow!
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