finding winners

Profitable betting is about finding prices,not winners.

The biggest stepping stone is the psychology .

that's what I was getting at Zealot although I think these 2 tangential from personal experience it's O.K saying it's about finding prices, and I totally agree with it Artie I am in the value camp it takes something of an iron will not to go off course when the inevitable losers that a value system incurs throws up

I genuinely believe you could give most punters a system that is long term profitable but most would still go off the rails and lose because of psychological factors due to short term results

The staking plan is at leas as important as the selections imho

laying Liverpool seems to work they never win :)

Expect losing runs of 50.That sorts the psychology out !

If you start with a bank of £2000 and lay to a liability of 10% , your bank may well increase very quickly .   You might find your bank has increased to £2500 in the first week , so then you expect you'll  make £1000 in the next fortnight , only to lose £400 .

So now your bank stands at £2100 after 3 weeks but you won £500 in the first week and have lost most of it back now  so its clearly not working so i'll change my strategy ...............sound familiar ?

loss aversion and recency bias means that a £400 loss 2nd week is felt much more than a £500 gain in week 1 even though the net is a gain, it is generally accepted that losses are felt much greater than gains, for me frequency increases during both winning and losing periods total abandonment of my systems

on the subject of psychology something I also found interesting when looking at p&l for different account was that I seem to do a lot better on my smaller staking accounts