General Betting
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Taken the plunge
Taken the plunge
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Replies: 128
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Yeah me too they both romped home, recouped mine on a good lay in a maiden at Redcar then had a succesful dutch at Worcester for a small profit. Yesterday finished very strong due to a very rare reverse forecast bet that came in.
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You trading the football tonight?
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iv just laid ukraine thats all so far
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yeah i'm laying Belarus
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Not sure you can make a decent living from a 4K bank.
Good luck all the same. |
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Hoping for a couple of goals for ya!!!
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whats you % R.O.I so far ?
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Zealot,
As of tonight it is 10.86% |
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mighty whites im averaging £350 a week from a 3k bank, but im being conservative and not really pushing it...where im from thats a decent wage when its run alongside your everyday income
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I am maybe pushing a little harder than sweet but not going stupid, my profit to date for Sept is £1340 but that has been with 10 out of 11 profitable days and i know there will be plenty more losing ones to come. I am not sure how sustainable it is to consistanly make enough profit to earn a decent living but have enough scope to give it a few months to find out although under no illusions it will be easy.
If i am still chatting on the forum in 2 months it probably means it's going ok, if not my slience will be deafning. |
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elitesp
I sincerely hope you keep chatting on here when you have a bad day or two. That will show that you are really approaching all this in a detached professional manner. Someone earlier said that you probably learn more from your losses than your wins. |
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I totally agree FAFH, and i know there will be plenty of losing days around the corner. I have really appreciated all the advice given so far and interestingly most of the thought provoking stuff is about the mental approach and nothing to do with strategy etc. I am not going to post any more figures as I appreciate these can be viewed differently by people, I will however honestly answer any direct questions.
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fantastic work elitesp
10.86 % sounds nice enough - keep it going . Try not to check on your progress daily . I prefer to check after each month . Good Luck |
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Thanks Zealot
To be honest it was the first time i had checked the ROI this month but your right a monthly review will probably be sufficient. Under no illusions though i have got off to a decent start and i am tightening up my trades but very early days. |
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a good day then a medium day, then a losing day but ended up as a moderate one :)
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Always a rollercoaster!!!, was reading your post about Liverpool prices sounds like you traded well!!!. I have had a steady day but always ahead so all good.
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Actually in parts this thread sounds like the tunnel of love.
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elitesp, where you are winning through judgment i.e. through your appreciation of something that can't be expressed formulaically, you prob. have to bet manually. Otherwise the way forward is to automate.
If you can find an edge in one sort of market, then you can prob. do the same in another. Automate all of these and the variance will smooth out any large misjudgment. Winning is all about accumulating small advantages. Over the short term these advantages will not always pay off in terms of making money (rather than just taking good prices). But they normally do eventually. Incidentally, my way of betting is very opposed to yours. I'm trying increasingly to back double figure and usually 20-1+ shots on the horses against the momentum. I sometimes trade out around the expectation and arb as forms of smoothing / comm. & charges management. The biggest prob. is the atrocious liquidity. If you go on as you have been doing, you will make more than me on a yearly basis, though. |
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...if you go on as you have been doing, you will make more money than me on a yearly basis, though.
Yes IF, but my money would be on you askari, to prevail on a yearly basis. |
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Hi Askari,
Thanks for your post and feedback everything is helpful. To be honest everything I have read over the last year has supported what you say about backing at longer odds. Whilst currently early days I am loathed to change my current strategy at present but may adapt in the future. In respect to automation have you developed your own system/tool for doing this?. I do use betting software but think you are probably referring to something more sophisticated. In response to Keilworth's post i am in toal agreement and my money is on you too :-) |
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good luck with your quest but I have to agree with Buzzer. there doesn't look to be any consistency with the P n L you have posted. When you take a hit then your liability increases which seems to indicate chasing. A bad run of results and you'll be wiped out. I'm not trying to put the mockers on, I just know this will happen because I've been there.
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to offer one bit of constructive advice, use your betfair settings to limit your deposits (or losses) at least to a daily limit and exclude from any other accounts you may have with other companies or on betfair. I personally play to a similar sized bank and to a similar albeit more controlled staking strategy and withdraw any profit at the end of each session. My deposits are limited to £1 per week so on the odd occasion I blow my bank I have to take a week off before my new deposit limit kicks in. By then my head is back in the game and a can slowly claw back my loss and get back on track. Remember if this does happen to reset your deposit limit once you have a new bank.
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^ this is very good advice
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Thanks good advice!!
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I wish you well elitesp with your endeavours ... what I enjoy reading is the daily updates on how you have done including figures but also any stand out wins or losses ...
In your opening post you said I am going to post my daily and running P&L and would be happy to share any futher information if of any interest ... Please keep it updated and have fun today. |
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Betting on foreign footie, bet on 19 different races in one day,
flat, jumps, bumpers, above average ROI all points clearly to a degree of chasing, and that will go wrong sooner or later. Take your profit and run !! |
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elitesp, I am not a particularly big or technically sophisticated bettor by the standards of this forum. I will input prices manually apart from having an API set-up placing bets that attempt to take advantage of edges that are neutral wrt to the runners (one e.g. here might be overshot momentum.) This is a small and new-ish part of my betting, though.
Betting longshots has nothing to do w/ these runners being a better source of profits and/or value. The point is more that you find most of the bots active on the first four or so runners in the market. This means that there is a degree of 'noise' in the price movements that makes it hard to take value, then cash it in at the expected return and so manage one's bank conservatively. Personally I find between 9-2 and 10-1 a graveyard on all but 16+ runner hcaps but I'm sure others will say the opposite. My sense is that the people winning on this class of runners are not primarily form students. Let's say that I make the fourth favourite a 9-2 shot, I put a mid-three figure trade on it at just over 7-1 and it jumps out towards 9s. The yard and owners are ones which on average provide good signals as to how horses are likely to run through the price action (a bit of research will find out correlations very unlikely to be through chance). Do I stand the bet or get out? Over time I've found the solution is to follow more than one approach--but these include 1) trading or price-taking on longer-priced horses; 2) getting as much on as I can through placers in the bookies in the morning, and being prepared to stand most of these bets; 3) (my initial strategy in fact), to lay a partial book on the front of the market throughout the day, starting early, and 4) to take any arb or try to exploit anything that looks like a temporary mispricing. Forget about being in form, being inspired, having significantly better judgment than the market most of the time or knowing a lot. Grind out your wins. It shouldn't be fun or exciting. Don't bet unless you can plausibly explain why you have an edge. This should usually be something that won't fit into the tissue of a winning systematic price-compiler--usually a visual impression or a change in circumstances that not everyone has yet noticed. |
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askari, you are whole lot wiser than most on here. GL
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Kenilworth, well today I played well and lost, two double fig. bets I held onto both came second.
I'm coming to think winning costs too much. I make just over 2X as much per hour from my business as I do from betting. I'm not mathematically educated, lack the dedication to find edges in sports I don't care about and haven't been able to scale strategies for the nags. The rational thing to do wd be to try to get more custom for the business, maybe by taking it overseas. Gl to you too. |
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askari, the fact that you actually make money from betting, no matter how much,
is a feat in itself as I understand only a small percentage of Betfairians do so. I would imagine you enjoy punting so it's possible to do both, especially if you specialize in perhaps one sport. I bet 90% on football, the other 10% horses, tv greyhounds, cricket. On the footie I mainly play only on tv matches, even then just on the last 30+ minutes, not always having a bet. On this evenings match I didn't have a bet, last evening at Orient just one bet. My idea of value is getting harder to find, the market is very efficient, and I don't have any compulsion to have a bet. GL. |
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Update on where i am after day 14.
Day 14 Football: £120.83 | Horse Racing: £57.22 Total P&L £178.05 Football Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets Football / FC Eindhoven v Helmond Sport : Match Odds 14-Sep-12 19:00 14-Sep-12 20:56 45.27 Football / FC Oss v Dordrecht : Match Odds 14-Sep-12 19:00 14-Sep-12 20:51 -17.12 Football / Ehime v Yokohama FC : Correct Score 14-Sep-12 11:00 14-Sep-12 12:58 -10.00 Football / Ehime v Yokohama FC : Match Odds 14-Sep-12 11:00 14-Sep-12 12:58 10.21 Football / Shonan v Kusatsu : Match Odds 14-Sep-12 11:00 14-Sep-12 12:54 92.47 Running total after day 14 Football: £28.44 | Golf: -£11.00 | Horse Racing: £2,085.35 Total P&L: £2,102.79 |
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Wd elitesp, keep it going.
One thing I find helps to deal with losing runs and apparently unfair losses is to keep a record of how much you expect to win per bet. Let's say that you are offered 6-1 for what you make a 9-2 shot. If you are betting full Kelly on a bankroll of 4k, you bet 181.81 and expect to make 23.20 every bet. It follows that should you get the chance to trade out taking comm. into account you should do so for a win of prob. anything over 22GBP, assuming circumstances are the same as when you placed your first bet. 'Over-winning' can be dangerous as psychologically you gear y/s up to expect that level of returns when in fact they have been abnormal. Equally bad, of course, is sticking w/ something that looks like a -ev strategy. Do you expect to make 150 quid a day, or about 35k if you bet as much as someone works in a white collar job? If not, it's OK every now and then to have a frustrating losing day. |
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sweetchildofmine 11 Sep 12 22:49
mighty whites im averaging £350 a week from a 3k bank, but im being conservative and not really pushing it...where im from thats a decent wage when its run alongside your everyday income Sweetchild it can provide a nice pot of spending money added to a wage but if it is your only source of income then it is not sustainable long term. After a while that 350 will be hit with 20% pc reducing it to 280 per week. That is before you consider the day things go wrong, you get greedy etc. |
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cover your balance up .
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Hey elitesp. I hope everything is going well Can you update the thread ?
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Hope you have not spunked the £2K+ Elite, was looking interesting!!!
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Has this thread ended ?
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He forgot his armbands
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back to the job centre? no way i'd take the plunge unles i had 30-40k to bet with
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What would 30-40k be needed for ?
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