General Betting
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I'm backing testing a system and it has thrown up a couple of points of profit which would you regard as the "strongest" or the one which would you be happier following or are they equal.
So i have found 125 instances where if i were to lay at 1.73 for £100 it would produce a total produce after commission of £625 or £5 per instance
Now compare this if i lay at 1.12 i also get £625 or £5 per instance.
I maybe be wrong here but i see that even though both return the same profit that both numbers have their own weaknesses. The problem i see with the laying at 1.73 is that if your strike falls its return per instance can fall very quickly whereas the 1.12 lays return per race will hold up for longer but the numbers could be skewed by a few "false" wins.
So i have found 125 instances where if i were to lay at 1.73 for £100 it would produce a total produce after commission of £625 or £5 per instance
Now compare this if i lay at 1.12 i also get £625 or £5 per instance.
I maybe be wrong here but i see that even though both return the same profit that both numbers have their own weaknesses. The problem i see with the laying at 1.73 is that if your strike falls its return per instance can fall very quickly whereas the 1.12 lays return per race will hold up for longer but the numbers could be skewed by a few "false" wins.
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Check the profits laying around those 2 points, 1.73 and 1.12 ie. at 1.7-1.75 and 1.1-1.15; this may give you a feel as to which "lay area" is the most robust.
Essentially there's no difference in that they will both fail if their strike rates start to fall.
Also don't start to get very excited about these types of good runs, until you have at least a ccouple of thousand observations under your belt.
In that respect keep a note of how long it takes to accumulate these observations.
It might take forever and a day in which case you are then going to have to bet in large numbers to make it all worthwhile.
And that in turn raises the question of liquidity in the particular markets you are observing.
So you should also be keeping a track of what amounts you would be able to get on at the " theoretical " prices you are recording.
Let's hope you are onto something that nobody else ( aka the pros) have found. Because that is really what you have to do in the final analysis.
If your observations are relatively straightforward and fairly obvious to any dedicated fellow researchers, then you probably have not found what they call a real betting niche and it will erode over time.
Also don't start to get very excited about these types of good runs, until you have at least a ccouple of thousand observations under your belt.
In that respect keep a note of how long it takes to accumulate these observations.
It might take forever and a day in which case you are then going to have to bet in large numbers to make it all worthwhile.
And that in turn raises the question of liquidity in the particular markets you are observing.
So you should also be keeping a track of what amounts you would be able to get on at the " theoretical " prices you are recording.
Let's hope you are onto something that nobody else ( aka the pros) have found. Because that is really what you have to do in the final analysis.
If your observations are relatively straightforward and fairly obvious to any dedicated fellow researchers, then you probably have not found what they call a real betting niche and it will erode over time.
The lower odds lays are more likely to produce a winning strategy. You are much more likely to have got the profit at 1.73 by chance than the profit at 1.12.
Are you laying both to win £100 or risk £100 ?
If you are laying to win £100, the 1.12 strategy is far better since it's making the same profit with a lot less risk.
If you are laying to risk £100, the 1.73 strategy could be better since there's probably more 1.73 losers than 1.12 losers - so your returns should be a bit more consistent.
If you are laying to win £100, the 1.12 strategy is far better since it's making the same profit with a lot less risk.
If you are laying to risk £100, the 1.73 strategy could be better since there's probably more 1.73 losers than 1.12 losers - so your returns should be a bit more consistent.
Lost me there I'm afraid Mr Magoo.
Don't see how any of that changes the fact that if your strike rate falls below the probabilities of the bets you are making, you will start to lose.
Staking to win a fixed amount, or staking a fixed amount doesn't to my little mind make one iota of difference, except to how fast you might win or lose.
Don't see how any of that changes the fact that if your strike rate falls below the probabilities of the bets you are making, you will start to lose.
Staking to win a fixed amount, or staking a fixed amount doesn't to my little mind make one iota of difference, except to how fast you might win or lose.
Well we aren't told the strike rate, just that both strategies make an identical profit.
It seems pretty safe to assume that if you are laying at 1.73 you can expect more winning bets (for you) than at 1.12. (And if that wasn't the case, laying the 1.12 must be massive value and you will soon be a millionaire!) So the strategy laying 1.12 will get lots of losses and the occasional win. The 1.73 strategy will get more frequent wins, leading to a more consistent return.
If the OP is laying to win £100, they are risking £12 a bet at 1.12 and £73 at 1.73. But if both strategies make £625 over the same time, the 1.12 strategy is risking far less money to do so.
It seems pretty safe to assume that if you are laying at 1.73 you can expect more winning bets (for you) than at 1.12. (And if that wasn't the case, laying the 1.12 must be massive value and you will soon be a millionaire!) So the strategy laying 1.12 will get lots of losses and the occasional win. The 1.73 strategy will get more frequent wins, leading to a more consistent return.
If the OP is laying to win £100, they are risking £12 a bet at 1.12 and £73 at 1.73. But if both strategies make £625 over the same time, the 1.12 strategy is risking far less money to do so.
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