getting better than expect winners is not an 'edge' ? 
seriously ?
50% winners with a sp of 2.91 is not an edge ?


and if you get better than average today thats not an edge either ?


cripes, Im stunned at these sharp minds

Lex, how much did you have on at those prices yesterday?

Read my first post again please.
This thread is just an idea. Which over the past few days of checking past results looks like an interesting idea. It appears to be true that bookmaker markets ( in this case horse racing) appears to be cyclic to the point of being predictable. Its not roulette or other fixed odds game - it is organic and somehow possibly influenced things I dont understand. It is therefore probably biased in someway. Nothing more nothing less. As Ive already said the next step if this works is to devise a plan of some sort.

Youre being contrary just for the sake of it arent you ? oh, yes of course you are, Contrarian

Lex,

I am being a bit contrary, yes, but I'm honestly confused. Either you're still testing (as you implied in your opening post), or you've done the testing. If the latter, and it works, you DEFINITELY shouldn't be advertising it on here, and you definitely should be using it to make money.

all Im doing is sharing an idea based on me drilling down through years of results, which anyone can do.

50% winners with average odds 2.91
was yesterdays findings. So I dont need to put 10 units on anything. and that was a bookmakers SP btw not betfair.


Will continue today ? well, lets wait and see.

JL, didnt quite understand your question ? try again. cheers.

ok, what did you do for your backtest?

How do you know which horse is going to be favourite in advance?

err look at the market before the off ?

A link that might interest you re CONSECUTIVE losing favs etc within odds range 2-1 to 11-4 SP etc etc

http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/thaccess.php

any system involving "fav" or "2nd fav" is a load of b*llocks as when do you put your bet on?  1 sec before the off?  Even then you might not be sure what the fav is going to be.

12-06-2012 favourites 10/30 =33.33%, mean sp  3.14 +1.4 points.

So the 2nd day did pan out as I said (being lower than the expected 40% due to 50% the previous day)

over the 2 days  64 races, 27 favs, 42.19% sr ( as I said it would) , 3 ave sp,  33.33% req. @ SP  17 points

Now I know you wont believe me but this happens every 120 races or so and has done since my records from 1988

As a bonus yesterday we had 4 conseq favs so I laid the 5th Heading To First 9/4F 8 pm Brighton.

I am going to do this live now taking on board that the industry returned favs may not always be the one at the off - but this is rare. I have also noticed that according to how well the bookmakers are doing favourite prices are manipulated accordingly. This is very interesting and could well account for why the statistics are so solid.

On the basis of the 120 race sequence and the full cards expected over the next few days I could tell you how the favourite results will pan out until Saturday. But then again to most of you the Earth is flat and theres no way to win at blackjack. 2 days doesnt prove anything does it. But if youre interested look at the last 30 days results and then 30 before that and so on...

1249 races, 447 favs, 35.79% sr, 2.84 ave sp
1036 races, 353 favs, 34.07% sr, 2.65 ave sp
933 races, 322 favs, 34.51% sr, 2.7 ave sp
811 races, 301 favs, 37.11% sr, 2.51 ave sp
673 races, 254 favs, 37.74% sr, 2.52 ave sp
862 races, 325 favs, 37.7% sr, 2.48 ave sp

straight backing would have been a level stakes loss of 290 points at sp

But

There were 44 backing sequences where the win rate was better than average which gave over 600 points profit at sp - betfair prices are better.

..and this has been the case since 1988.

It's not so bad to discuss it, now he hasn't have to do it...! But I think a modified idea can be good...

Lex before you lose any money on this dont do it.I,v tried it.I got Betbotpro and had it set to lay specific margin favs ie between 4/6 and 6/4 for £5 with a recovery + £5 rate ie one wins at evs say then it layed the next one for £10 and so on so everytime one got beat i won £5.Figured i had cracked it after about a week when i was averaging about £90 per day until i noticed a flaw which was i only partially got matched after about 5 winners and it reset.Needless to say i tried to fix it and something like 12 in a row won and wiped me out at the time.

I was thinking like you and tried numerous different approaches to no avail and at some cost.What i will say is you can make money on here as i finally cracked it so dont give up trying.Just dont do it this way.

With respect bookie - what I have been saying throughout this thread is not remotely close to the method you used.


fool paradise       nope. But the only positive bit of feedback Ive had is to keep this to myself and I will now.


Evey now and then I might pop back and give you a winner or two. maybe.

Thread closed

tar.

shut the door behind you - thanks

Runs of consecutive losers would be more interesting Lex........

Hi - they include uK and Ireland  clear and joint favs not co favs

I Read through & probably some valuable insights lurking here but I do feel this thread is best suited to left brain dominant types who have a higher capacity for Logic, Critical Thinking, Numbers & Reasoning.  We Rightists who are more about Intuition might get bogged down by it all.................................................Carry on the Conversation left brain dominant types!

are you putting money on your theory yet Lex, would love to hear you are making a good profit from your hard work.