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If someone estimated their profit over a year as 16 percent, and then trialled hundreds of bets at around average odds of evens, which again produced (after deducting commission) exactly a profit of 16 percent overall, then presumably that person's edge would be 16 percent.
Assuming that this is the case, a 16 percent edge, and that the selections are on a wide range of sports bets (excluding horse racing) then what staking plan would you recommend for that person to use in order to maximise the profit from their selections?
Let's say that the initial betting bank is 5000 dollars.
Regards.
H-Bomb.
Assuming that this is the case, a 16 percent edge, and that the selections are on a wide range of sports bets (excluding horse racing) then what staking plan would you recommend for that person to use in order to maximise the profit from their selections?
Let's say that the initial betting bank is 5000 dollars.
Regards.
H-Bomb.
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P.S.
Obviously this is just a very small experiment, nowhere near conclusive, and probably very tedious for those of you who already know all about this stuff. Perhaps some other novices like me will have gained something from it though.
It certainly helped me learn a few things. Thanks to those from early on, who gave some helpful advice.
Obviously this is just a very small experiment, nowhere near conclusive, and probably very tedious for those of you who already know all about this stuff. Perhaps some other novices like me will have gained something from it though.
It certainly helped me learn a few things. Thanks to those from early on, who gave some helpful advice.
I for one didnt find it boring, was well explained, im taking your word about the maths of it all, much better thread than 99% on these forums, gl
I think you should keep it going, at least to say 100 bets. At the current rate that shouldn't take long and you may well be done just after Easter.
Ok. But my hearts not really in it now. I'll chuck in a few more though.
Bet 13: Goals over 2,5 @ 1.87
My estimate 1,50
currenlty 0-0 after 11 mins.
Bet 13: Goals over 2,5 @ 1.87
My estimate 1,50
currenlty 0-0 after 11 mins.
Bet 14: Tennis : McHale to beat Wozniack @ 1.97
My estimate 1.75
currenlty 4-5 in 1st set.
My estimate 1.75
currenlty 4-5 in 1st set.
Bet 15: Seville v Mallorca
Goals under 1,50 @ 3.10
My estimate 2.00
currently 0-0 after 20 mins.
Goals under 1,50 @ 3.10
My estimate 2.00
currently 0-0 after 20 mins.
Bet 16: Blackburn Man Utd goals over 0.5 @ 2.00
My estimate 1.80.
0-0 after 75 mins.
My estimate 1.80.
0-0 after 75 mins.
That's currently in 3rd set by the way. Went in again on McHale who was a break down.
Bet 19: Almirante Brown v Rosario : goals over 2.5 @ 1.71
My estimate 1.50
currently 2-0 after 60 mins.
My estimate 1.50
currently 2-0 after 60 mins.
Made 7 selections with no research. The result 3 winners, 4 losers. Which clearly shows the value of making an effort in your betting. Or, lay your selections, if guessing, could be a profitable idea 
Anyway, like I said, my heart's not in this for now. I'll be back in a few weeks with a new thread, using real money, and putting the theory into practical application
Anyway, like I said, my heart's not in this for now. I'll be back in a few weeks with a new thread, using real money, and putting the theory into practical application
Many people's motivations for keeping a thread is to ensure discipline in all their selections. Winners get a following and end up being able to trade, but then if you're winning (esp. when not paying comm.) why would you want to?
With the Albion Research Kelly calculator, all you need to do is to estimate the percentage chance of a bet winning. They've made it simpler for you than working out implied chances from your own odds.
h-bomb, if you want to, come back; otherwise, try to invest the same amount of time researching each of yr bets and be suspicious when yr estimate is unusually out-of-line. Gl
With the Albion Research Kelly calculator, all you need to do is to estimate the percentage chance of a bet winning. They've made it simpler for you than working out implied chances from your own odds.
h-bomb, if you want to, come back; otherwise, try to invest the same amount of time researching each of yr bets and be suspicious when yr estimate is unusually out-of-line. Gl
Profit on Bank - 50%
114 markets/trades
16 losing markets -
6 x Orginal Bet Won £9.43 - around £107 staked
4 x Losing Bet Position £8.05
2 x Menial Losses £2
1 x 1/5 SR Bet £5
1 x Stupid Bet £15
2 x Loss on Man United lays £10.75
114 markets/trades
16 losing markets -
6 x Orginal Bet Won £9.43 - around £107 staked
4 x Losing Bet Position £8.05
2 x Menial Losses £2
1 x 1/5 SR Bet £5
1 x Stupid Bet £15
2 x Loss on Man United lays £10.75
For me it is all about picking winners, all about strike rate.
For example - I tipped today
Leading by 1 goal - Southampton 1.28 (0-2) & Everton 1.28 (4-0)
Leading by 2 goals - Lausanne 1.5 (1-3)
The total return above is just above 100% so £50 stakes would have seen £50 profit in 3 bets.
If the prices had been 1.05 no I would not have backed them. But I backed these regardless of price - I just bet on what the market offered because I believed they would win.
I look at 1.28 and think I need 4 winning bets to profit well before I can afford to lose 1. So strike-rate and picking winners is more important than whether the price I am taking is value or not.
If I bet in a different manner I would assume value is more important.
For example - I tipped today
Leading by 1 goal - Southampton 1.28 (0-2) & Everton 1.28 (4-0)
Leading by 2 goals - Lausanne 1.5 (1-3)
The total return above is just above 100% so £50 stakes would have seen £50 profit in 3 bets.
If the prices had been 1.05 no I would not have backed them. But I backed these regardless of price - I just bet on what the market offered because I believed they would win.
I look at 1.28 and think I need 4 winning bets to profit well before I can afford to lose 1. So strike-rate and picking winners is more important than whether the price I am taking is value or not.
If I bet in a different manner I would assume value is more important.
Of course that is the way to go loaded, but just wait for the smug value bettors to come on here and tell us we're completely wrong. Hey, it's been working for me since I joined BF. A winning bet has value. Always has, always will. Now to completely go against what I just said, a winning bet @ 1.05 may not be a good bet. All bets are not to be bet blindly, but a winner is a winner is a winner.
Yes Jliver, it is an awesome quote, but even more awesome is
but just wait for the smug value bettors to come on here and tell us we're completely wrong
As predicted. Another prediction : more smugness to follow
but just wait for the smug value bettors to come on here and tell us we're completely wrong
As predicted. Another prediction : more smugness to follow
But why this: "a winning bet @ 1.05 may not be a good bet"?
In all seriousness, I would have thought that all winning bets are good bets.
In all seriousness, I would have thought that all winning bets are good bets.
Still standing
Date Joined: 05 Jun 04
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Yes Jliver, it is an awesome quote, but even more awesome is
but just wait for the smug value bettors to come on here and tell us we're completely wrong
As predicted. Another prediction : more smugness to follow
Yes, betting on that would have been a value bet at any price!
Date Joined: 05 Jun 04
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When: 09 Apr 12 18:08
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Yes Jliver, it is an awesome quote, but even more awesome is
but just wait for the smug value bettors to come on here and tell us we're completely wrong
As predicted. Another prediction : more smugness to follow
Yes, betting on that would have been a value bet at any price!
In all seriousness JLiver, everybody when they make a bet does a calculation before they bet. Value bettors call it value, I call it a good ( or bad ) bet. It's just that in my experience, the value bets boys are way to holier then thou. It's my way, or you're an asrehole. Smug to the nth degree. You definition of value might not be the same as mine. I don't care, but you like most VB's seem to care way to much. There really is no argument here. Your sense of value seems to be more strict then mine. I've been here 8 years doing it my way, results are more important then absolute value to me. I've seen too many Value bettors hold out for that 1.92, passing on the 1.90. 1.92 is probably the absolute correct minimum value, if judged over 10,000 bets. I'll take the 1,90 if I think it's a good bet. If it loses, the Value boys come on and say what a mug I was. I would rather loosen my standards and be 55% over hundreds of bets then be a tightsas and go 60% with much less bets. There is a US site called professionalgambler that shows this clearly.
Bottom line: no problem with strict value bettors, we all have our own way. VB just tend to be Godlike,and aren't afraid to tell you so.
Bottom line: no problem with strict value bettors, we all have our own way. VB just tend to be Godlike,and aren't afraid to tell you so.
OK so one bettor passes as he doesn't get 1.92. You are happy with 1.90, but at what stage do you not back your selection?
Surely you are doing the same as the value bettors unless of course you will back anything you think is going to win at odds down to 1.01?
Surely you are doing the same as the value bettors unless of course you will back anything you think is going to win at odds down to 1.01?
So still standing, correct minimum value is 1.92 'over 10,000 bets' then how can a 1.9 back be a good bet?
Just completed 100 sample bets. Outcome 59 winners, 41 losers. Average odds approx. evens.
This suggests 18 percent edge, which seems to tally with my previous samples stated at the beginning of this thread which suggested precisely 16 percent.
Yes, I know, everyone keeps saying it's impossible. But the samples keep on producing it.
I'm going to play safer than that though and proceed using Askari1's wonderful Albion Research Kelly Calculator.
I'll return tomorrow, and we'll see how things go.
This suggests 18 percent edge, which seems to tally with my previous samples stated at the beginning of this thread which suggested precisely 16 percent.
Yes, I know, everyone keeps saying it's impossible. But the samples keep on producing it.
I'm going to play safer than that though and proceed using Askari1's wonderful Albion Research Kelly Calculator.
I'll return tomorrow, and we'll see how things go.
Say you have a selection process thats you stick to but you only bet when you have 'value'
while you wait for value you miss winners. The gains you make over the long term betting your selections thats are not 'value' will be the same as those you have waited for that have value. It all evens out.
is this not true?
while you wait for value you miss winners. The gains you make over the long term betting your selections thats are not 'value' will be the same as those you have waited for that have value. It all evens out.
is this not true?
Answer will depend on who you are asking... imho:
while you wait for value you miss winners.
>> yes, but you will also miss losers
The gains you make over the long term betting your selections thats are not 'value'
>> you won't make long term gains unless you are capturing 'value'
The gains you make over the long term betting your selections thats are not 'value' will be the same as those you have waited for that have value. It all evens out.
>> Why do you think this should be true? After all you could have taken 1m bets where you waited for 'value' and made a ton of £ and 10k where you did not have 'value'. Why should they equal out?
while you wait for value you miss winners.
>> yes, but you will also miss losers
The gains you make over the long term betting your selections thats are not 'value'
>> you won't make long term gains unless you are capturing 'value'
The gains you make over the long term betting your selections thats are not 'value' will be the same as those you have waited for that have value. It all evens out.
>> Why do you think this should be true? After all you could have taken 1m bets where you waited for 'value' and made a ton of £ and 10k where you did not have 'value'. Why should they equal out?
thats why I asked the question.
21 races a day
bet all 6 favs and 2 win
or wait for 3 value favs and 1 wins.
its about strike rate needing to be better than the odds?
21 races a day
bet all 6 favs and 2 win
or wait for 3 value favs and 1 wins.
its about strike rate needing to be better than the odds?
What's a fav?
IF you mean your favoured horse then aren't they all value favs?
IF you mean your favoured horse then aren't they all value favs?
It does not EVEN OUT.......................
ROI reflects how much profit you can make from bets.
If someone has a 16% ROI ...then on £10,000 staked they can make £1,600 profit T they have the stats to support this....giving confidence re the strategies they apply)
If someone backs favs....and don't take account of the odds / value in odds....then their ROI is very very likely to be far lower than 16%. Thus on £10,000 staked they will make less than £1,600 profit. IT DOES NOT EVEN OUT!
Anyone can pick winners.......but can they make a profit backing the way they do?
What ROI do you make Lex? ( I suspect you don't keep record of bets, so will have no idea re your ROI. If my suspicions are not correct, then I apologise......but your assumption re " It all evens out" suggests you don't!.
ROI reflects how much profit you can make from bets.
If someone has a 16% ROI ...then on £10,000 staked they can make £1,600 profit T they have the stats to support this....giving confidence re the strategies they apply)
If someone backs favs....and don't take account of the odds / value in odds....then their ROI is very very likely to be far lower than 16%. Thus on £10,000 staked they will make less than £1,600 profit. IT DOES NOT EVEN OUT!
Anyone can pick winners.......but can they make a profit backing the way they do?
What ROI do you make Lex? ( I suspect you don't keep record of bets, so will have no idea re your ROI. If my suspicions are not correct, then I apologise......but your assumption re " It all evens out" suggests you don't!.
I was asking the question not making an assumption.
and I wasnt talking ROI either, and Ive no idea what mine is - I bet for fun not profit.
my point is that it evens out unless your strike rate is better than the odds you get, and that it not value that is skill
yes ?
and I wasnt talking ROI either, and Ive no idea what mine is - I bet for fun not profit.
my point is that it evens out unless your strike rate is better than the odds you get, and that it not value that is skill
yes ?
If you have a way of weighing up reasonably accurately the CHANCES OF A HORSE WINNING, then compare its "true" chances of winning against the odds available, then you can "find value" bets.
If your method works, then you will achieve a good ROI. If not, then you will probably lose money.
Most punters don't have such a method of weighing up whether there is VALUE IN ODDS for their selection. Most punters lose.
If your method works, then you will achieve a good ROI. If not, then you will probably lose money.
Most punters don't have such a method of weighing up whether there is VALUE IN ODDS for their selection. Most punters lose.
Your language is too slack Lex....so no idea what you mean!
Strike-rate can be low, relatively speaking, but your ROI can be high, relatively speaking.
Strike-rate alone does not mean you will make a profit, especially when backing favs.
Your 2 winners out of 6 could be at ODDS ON odds..........so you lose on 6 bets.
Your 1 winner out of 3 can be at 5-2 SP...so you make a profit of 0.50 on 3 bets.
The odds are important......
If you just bet for fun....you don't mind losing....as long as you get some wins you are "happy".
If trying to make a profit , then selecting at value odds are essential to have a chance of achieveing profit.
Strike-rate alone does not mean you will make a profit, especially when backing favs.
Your 2 winners out of 6 could be at ODDS ON odds..........so you lose on 6 bets.
Your 1 winner out of 3 can be at 5-2 SP...so you make a profit of 0.50 on 3 bets.
The odds are important......
If you just bet for fun....you don't mind losing....as long as you get some wins you are "happy".
If trying to make a profit , then selecting at value odds are essential to have a chance of achieveing profit.
I think strike rate must be better than the price you bet at = skill.
value is waiting for a horse that is at a better price than you think it should be, and while waiting you miss out.
value is waiting for a horse that is at a better price than you think it should be, and while waiting you miss out.
You don't have to wait long with horse racing......value in most races is there to be found.....This is when you truly have "skill".
Take the 2 rated races below......the first race the fav is rated in top 3 and is at VALUE odds ( a 2-1 shot at odds of 4-1SP).
The 2nd race the fav is a 5-1 SP shot....but rated 12th in a 13 runner field ....There is no value in backing it ....only laying it!
CARLISLE
14:15 Handicap Chase(Class 4) 5yo+ (3m110y) 3m½f Good To Soft 18 fences
1,Russian Sky 5-1 2ND FAV
2,Stark Raven 2ND 20-1 AM 9/10 Straight Forecast: £71.83 Tricast: £673.17 Exacta: £102.80
3,Royal Mackintosh 1ST 4-1F *** AM 1/10 ***
4,Low Reactor 7-1
5,Mrs O'Malley 8-1
6,Windygate 9-1
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £71.83 Exacta: £102.80
7,Whispering Moor 6 3RD FAV AM 3/10
8,Versus 50
9,Cybora 3RD 9-1 AM 8/10
10,Kirkside Pleasure 15-2 AM 7/10
==============================================================
14:45 Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) 4yo+ 2m1f Good To Soft 7 hdles 2 omitted
1,Twelve Paces 3RD 9-1 AM 5/13
2,Soul Angel 16-1
3,Breakwater House 16-1
4,Square Dealer 18-1
5,High Stand Lad 15-2
6,Mini Minster 2ND 16-1 AM 9/13
7,Sinatas 1ST 7-1 jt 2ND/3rd f AM 3/13 Ex £72.20; CSF £112.00; TRICAST £1025.57
-----------------------------------------
8,Scuzme 33
9,Marufo 9 AM 8/13
10,Diavoleria 8 AM 7/13
11,Bamby 7 JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 1/13
12,Fistral 5-1F AM 11/13
13,Bijou Dan 10 AM 6/13
The 2nd race the fav is a 5-1 SP shot....but rated 12th in a 13 runner field ....There is no value in backing it ....only laying it!
CARLISLE
14:15 Handicap Chase(Class 4) 5yo+ (3m110y) 3m½f Good To Soft 18 fences
1,Russian Sky 5-1 2ND FAV
2,Stark Raven 2ND 20-1 AM 9/10 Straight Forecast: £71.83 Tricast: £673.17 Exacta: £102.80
3,Royal Mackintosh 1ST 4-1F *** AM 1/10 ***
4,Low Reactor 7-1
5,Mrs O'Malley 8-1
6,Windygate 9-1
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £71.83 Exacta: £102.80
7,Whispering Moor 6 3RD FAV AM 3/10
8,Versus 50
9,Cybora 3RD 9-1 AM 8/10
10,Kirkside Pleasure 15-2 AM 7/10
==============================================================
14:45 Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) 4yo+ 2m1f Good To Soft 7 hdles 2 omitted
1,Twelve Paces 3RD 9-1 AM 5/13
2,Soul Angel 16-1
3,Breakwater House 16-1
4,Square Dealer 18-1
5,High Stand Lad 15-2
6,Mini Minster 2ND 16-1 AM 9/13
7,Sinatas 1ST 7-1 jt 2ND/3rd f AM 3/13 Ex £72.20; CSF £112.00; TRICAST £1025.57
-----------------------------------------
8,Scuzme 33
9,Marufo 9 AM 8/13
10,Diavoleria 8 AM 7/13
11,Bamby 7 JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 1/13
12,Fistral 5-1F AM 11/13
13,Bijou Dan 10 AM 6/13
my point it is that it was value becuase it won.
I think that this is a point of view that will run and run. so no offence meant.
I think that this is a point of view that will run and run. so no offence meant.
I think mathematcially we are both right
your odds must be better than its chance of winning = value
or
your strike rate must be better than the odds you get long term.
But in true practice I think strike rate is better for making profits.
your odds must be better than its chance of winning = value
or
your strike rate must be better than the odds you get long term.
But in true practice I think strike rate is better for making profits.
Your point is just not accurate.......
It is the consistency re your selection method that will determine your success or failure re weighing up whether to back a fav or not....HOWEVER, VALUE IS ESSENTIAL.
If your rating system is a reasonably "good" one...then the winning returns will follow.
Also, your ROI will far better than most punters.....
It is the consistency re your selection method that will determine your success or failure re weighing up whether to back a fav or not....HOWEVER, VALUE IS ESSENTIAL.
If your rating system is a reasonably "good" one...then the winning returns will follow.
Also, your ROI will far better than most punters.....
I'll post the other races rated for that day.....
Please not that odds on shots are always ignored, unless they are top rated....then a SFC might be considered...though generally won't be done.
Perhaps you will get better understanding of how to spot VALUE and this is based on RANKING in ratings and the odds.
15:20 Novices´ Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 2m4f Good To Soft 16 fences
1,Ballyvoge 1ST 4-11F *** AM 1/5 ***
2,Akilak N/R
3,Allegedly So 7-1 3RD FAV
4,Nicky Tam 3RD 16-1 AM 4/5
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £2.86 Exacta: £2.70
5,Contendo N/R
6,Lord Samposin 2ND 5-1 2ND FAV AM 2/5
7,Tully Hill N/R
8,Fred Bojangals 66
15:55 Handicap Chase (Class 4) 5yo+ 2m4f Good To Soft 16 fences
1,Astyanax 20-1
2,Sparkling Taff 1ST 3-1F *** AM 2/11 ***
3,Lofty Leader 11-1
4,Posh Stick 15-2
5,Mongorno 3RD 25-1 AM 8/11
6,Roschal 16-1
-------------------------------------TOTE WIN £3.60 PL £1.90, £1.40, £7.70; Ex £10.30; CSF £13.67; TRICAST £211.09
7,Sands Rising 5 3RD FAV AM 4/11
8,Kyalami 14 AM 11/11
9,Sweet Memories 20 AM 10/11
10,Chopneyev 2ND 100-30 2ND FAV AM 1/11 CSF £13.67 Ex £10.30
11,Brandy Wine 12 AM 7/11
16:30 Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) 4yo+ 2m4f Good To Soft 9 hdles 2 omitted
1,Commercial Express N/R
2,Bleu Pois 9-2F AM 2/18
3,Troll 12-1 AM 5/18
4,Stravaigin 2ND 9-1 AM 8/18
5,Ever Special 33-1 AM 12/18
6,Solway Bee 3RD 8-1 3RD FAV AM 3/18
7,Toulouse Express 20-1 AM 14/18
8,Topaz Lady 7-1 2ND FAV AM 13/18
9,Wise Choice 1ST 14-1 AM 9/18 CSF £124.78 Ex £395.50 GOOD ODDS WINNER
10,Giant's Rock 50-1 AM 10/18
11,Ballykelly 9-1 AM 11/18
---------------------------------TOTE WIN £23.50 PL £6.00, £3.30, £2.20, £6.70; Ex £395.50; CSF £124.78; TRICAST £1102.56
12,Cha Cha Cha Dancer 20
13,Snowy 4TH 20-1 AM 18/18
14,Devil's Disguise 25
15,Panthers Run 16 AM 1/18
16,Island Key N/R
17,Crystal Runner 28
18,Masterjoe 14 AM 4/18
19,Maylee 80
20,Classic Act 9 AM 6/18
17:05 Handicap Chase (Class 4) 5yo+ 2m Good To Soft 12 fences
1,Nortonthorpe Lad 5-1 AM 2/11 ***
2,Barney 1ST 7-2F AM 6/11 CSF £18.69 Ex £25.30 TRICAST £152.11P ACHIEVED
3,Nevsky Bridge 20-1 AM 5
4,Native Coll 2ND 9-2 ***JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 1/11 ***
5,Norminster 3RD 11-1 AM 3/11
6,The Miner 20-1 AM 4
----------------------------------------TOTE WIN £4.40 PL £1.60, £1.90, £3.90; Ex £25.30; CSF £18.69; TRICAST £152.11Place 6 £ 124.84, Place 5 £ 43.86
7,Hollows Mill 12 AM 9/11
8,Cuccinello 20
9,Stormy Beech 20
10,Oliverjohn 14 AM 8/11
11,Stand On Me 9-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 7/11
FOLKESTONE
14:10 Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5f Good To Soft
1,Soul Sista 2ND 7-1 *** 3RD FAV AM 2/4 *** Straight Forecast: £5.50 Exacta: £5.50
2,Celtic Commitment N/R
3,Strictly Royal 8-1
4,Sorrel Ridge 100-3 2ND FAV
-------------------------------------
5,Miss Belle Eve N/R
6,Northern Tour 1ST 4-6F AM 1/4 Straight Forecast: £5.50 Exacta: £5.50
14:40 Handicap(Class 5) 3yo 6f Good To Soft
1,Blue Jack 7-2F
2,We Have A Dream 1ST 9-2 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 7/10 Straight Forecast: £23.71 Exacta: £25.10
3,Party In The Park 9-2 JT 3RD/4TH FAV
4,Young Ivanhoe 20-1
5,Kalligal 20-1
6,Whiteoak Lady 10-1
--------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £23.71 Tricast: £175.90 Exacta: £25.10
7,Our Acquaintance 3RD 12-1 AM 10/10
8,Copperwood 12 AM 4/10
9,Epsom Salts N/R
10,Baunagain 2ND 4-1 2ND FAV AM 1/10
11,Helping Hand 12 AM 9/10
15:15 Handicap(Class 4) 4yo+ 6f Good To Soft
1,Dickie Le Davoir 8-1
2,Hits Only Jude 7-1
3,Stamford Blue 16-1
4,Golden Desert 9-2 2ND FAV
5,Nobilissima 2ND 6-1 AM 9/10
6,Don Pele 20-1
-------------------------------------
7,Shes Minnie 25
8,Mujood 3RD 5-1 3RD FAV AM 8/10
9,Bonnie Prince Blue 1ST 9-1 AM 2/10
10,Andronikos 4-1F AM 1/10
15:50 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (3yo) (1m1f149y) 1m1½f Good To Soft
1,Riverscape 1ST 13-8F *** AM 2/7 ***
2,L'Orage 66-1
3,The Hoofer 12-1
4,Pharaohs Queen 3RD 2-1 2ND FAV AM 1/7
----------------------------------
5,Dark Camellia N/R
6,Valferno 2ND 8-1 AM 7/7
7,Barring Decree 5 3RD FAV AM 3/7
8,Dancing Ellie 40 AM 6/7
16:25 Handicap (Class 6) 4yo+ (1m1f149y) 1m1½f Good To Soft
1,Princelywallywogan 1ST 6-1 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 11/13 CSF £64.32 Ex £114.50
2,Ruling Reef 3RD 9-2 JF*** AM 2/13 ***
3,The Dagger 7-1
4,Earl Kraul 14-1
5,Amical Risks 9-2JF
6,Etoile d'Or 20-1
7,Personify 25-1
-------------------------------TOTE WIN £8.00 PL £2.70, £3.40, £1.70; Ex £114.50; CSF £64.32; TRICAST £302.55Part won. Pool: £221.34 - 0.50 winning units.
8,Forfeiter 6 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 1/13
9,Muskatsturm 8 AM 13/13
10,Istibian 100
11,Flight Dream 2ND 10-1 AM 3/13
12,Copper King 16 AM 6/13
13,King of Connacht 33
17:00 Handicap(Class 6) 4yo+ 1m4f Good To Soft
1,Top Spec 3-1JF
2,General Flumpa 5-1 3RD FAV
3,Icannshift N/R
4,Street Life 2ND 3-1JF *** AM 2/9 *** Straight Forecast: £79.44 Exacta: £132.80
5,Ashmolian 7-1
6,Compton Charlie 1ST 20-1 AM 8/9 BORDERLINE ONE AT GOOD ODDS
---------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £79.44 Tricast: £536.54 Exacta: £132.80 Trifecta: £0.00
7,Meohmy 8 AM 7/9
8,Berry Hill Lass 3RD 8-1 AM 5/9
9,Tribiani N/R
10,Ardglass 40
11,Sandokan 14 AM 9/9
FONTWELL
14:20 Novices´ Hurdle (Div I(Class 4) (4yo+) (2m2f110y) 2m2½f Good 9 hdles
1,Tampa Boy 2ND 11-10F *** AM 3/10 ***
2,Mole's Chamber 10-1
3,Princess Flame 4-1 3RD FAV
4,Fortification 33-1
5,Psychiatrist 1ST 11-4 2ND FAV AM 1/10
6,Cilla Black 20-1
--------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £6.58 Exacta: £8.50
7,Storm Surge 80
8,Just A Thought 14 AM 4/10
9,Quaystone Lady 100
10,Kilmeena Magic 3RD 33-1 AM 5/10
14:55 Hurdle (Div II)(Class 4) (4yo+) (2m2f110y) 2m2½f Good 9 hdles
1,Theatre Girl 1ST 2-9F *** AM 1/9 ***
2,Pepito Collonges 25-1 AM 5/9
3,Quillan Hill 5-1 2ND FAV AM 2/9 ***
4,Ouzbeck N/R
5,Sparkys Reflection 100-1 AM 8/9
6,Fit To Drive 2ND 20-1 3RD FAV AM 4/9 Straight Forecast: £8.60 Exacta: £7.40
-----------------------------------
7,Missus Jones 66
8,Debord 66
9,Sumdancer 3RD 25-1 AM 6/9
10,Let Em Come 100
15:30 Handicap Chase (Class 5) 5yo+ (3m2f110y) 3m2½f Good 19 fences
1,Kappelhoff 10-1
2,Carroll's O'Tully 13-2 3RD FAV
3,Kisha King 16-1
4,Boardroom Dancer 1ST 12-1 AM 11/14 Ex £804.10; CSF £232.77
5,Peveril Pride 12-1
6,Another Chat 9-2F
7,Lucky Luk 6-1 2ND FAV
8,Ours 10-1 AM 12/14
----------------------------------------TOTE WIN £21.30 PL £6.10, £8.30, £4.20; Ex £804.10; CSF £232.77; TRICAST £6465.95
9,Victree 7 AM 3/14
10,Jackella 16
11,Stormy Skye 16
12,Harry Collins 10 AM 10/14
13,The Laying Hen 3RD 28-1 AM 9/14
14,Dads Lad N/R
15,Mystical Star 2ND 20-1 AM 7/14 CSF £232.77 Ex £804.10;
16:05 Novices´ Selling Hurdle (Class 5) (4yo+) 2m4f Good 10 hdles
1,Councillor Jack N/R
2,Sea Map 5-1 3RD FAV
3,Tiffin Deano 50-1
4,Cavalry Twill 5-2F
5,Denise's Dip 2ND 8-1 AM 5/12
6,Relative Hero 3RD 4-1 2ND FAV AM 2/12
7,Capestreet 8-1
8,Lyrical Girl 100-1
---------------------------------------
9,Fine Edge 50
10,Night Groove 16 AM 7/12
11,Team Secret 50
12,Lady Romanov 16 AM 8/12
13,Music Celebre 1ST 7-1 AM 1/12
14,Worcester Lodge N/R
16:40 Handicap Chase (Class 4) 5yo+ 2m2f Good 13 fences
1,Cleymor House 9-2 3RD FAV
2,Count Kristo 1ST 100-30F *** AM 1/11 ***
3,Space Cowboy 3RD 7-2 2ND FAV AM 5/11
4,Spinaround 14-1
5,Secret GlenTOTE 16-1
6,Wishes Or Watches 28-1
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £67.50 Tricast: £255.34 Exacta: £113.70
7,Lease Back 2ND 20-1 AM 7/11
8,Inn For The Dancer 8 AM 2/11
9,Freedom Frix 11-2 AM 4/11
10,Golden Crew 12 AM 6/11
11,Ballyrainey 33
17:15 Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap HurdleClass 5) 4yo+ (2m6f110y) 2m6½f Good 11 hdles
1,Wild Ground 11-4F
2,Lazy But Lively 20
3,War Pennant 8
4,Silistra 33
5,Master Wolfe 11
6,Novi Sad 28
7,Imperial Harry 6 3RD FAV
8,Tanktastic 40
9,Midnight Ocean N/R
10,Lilac Wine 4TH 33-1 AM 7/16
---------------------------------TOTE WIN £15.60 PL £3.90, £5.20, £1.90, £5.90; Ex £282.90; CSF £199.58; TRICAST £1143.06
11,Pearly Star N/R
12,Psychic Star 16
13,Hermano Cordobes 3RD 5-1 2ND FAV AM 2/16
14,Deep Pockets 1ST 10-1 AM 3/16
15,Northern Endeavour 16
16,Fairlight Shadow 2ND 20-1 AM 13/16
17,Himba 20 AM 15/16
18,Deoraoicht 20 AM 12/16
17:45 Hunters´ Chase(Class 6) (5yo+) 2m4f Good
1,General Alarm N/R
2,Hatsnall N/R
3,Sesame Rambler 1ST 13-8F *** AM 2/8 ***
4,Highway Oak 2ND 7-2 *** 3RD FAV AM 3/8 *** Ex £6.50 CSF £8.07
5,Jurado Express N/R
6,Urban Rebel 5-2 2ND FAV AM 1/8 ***
7,Saddlers Cloth 11
8,Kadito 20
------------------------------------
9,Watership Down 3RD 10-1 AM 6/8
10,Scarlet Fantasy 33
11,Ilabon 11 AM 8/8
KEMPTON
18:50 Handicap (Class 6) 4yo+ 1m2f Standard
1,Tabulate 10
2,Western Roots 1ST 8-1 AM 9/11
3,Play Up Pompey 7
4,Siena Star 2ND 11-2 *** JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 4/11 ***
5,Magic Amigo 6
---------------------------------TOTE WIN £15.60 PL £5.00, £2.60, £4.30; Ex £78.30; CSF £56.40; TRICAST £422.73
6,Weet Yer Tern 6 AM 7/11
7,Bowl of Cherries 9-2F AM 5/11
8,Shaheer 20
9,Krakatau 11-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 2/11
10,Patavium Prince 3RD 9-1 AM 3/11
11,Tykie Two 33
19:20 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 1m2f Standard
1,Irish Mayhem N/R
2,Judgethemoment 1ST 11-4 3RD FAV*** AM 3/5 *** Straight Forecast: £36.26 Exacta: £28.50
3,Talayeb 13-8 2ND FAV AM 1/5 ***
4,Tharawaat EVENS F AM 2/5 ***
-------------------------------------
5,Quws Vision 50
6,Ben Ami ²ND 14-1 AM 4/5 Straight Forecast: £36.26 Exacta: £28.50
1;:50 Handicap(Class 4) 3yo 5f Standard
1,Brassini 11
2,Valhillen 3RD 100-30 2ND FAV
3,Wavertree Princess 13-2
4,Your Pleasure 5-2F
-----------------------------m-------
5,Van Bossed 2ND 6-1 AM 7/7
6,Enodoc ` 13-2 AM 2/7
7,Storey Hill 1ST 4-1 3RD FAV AM 3/7
20:20 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) 4yo+ 6f Standard
1,Expensive Art 2ND 4-5F AM 4/5
2,Is It Time 1ST 10-1 *** AM 1/5 *** Ex £22.00 CSF £19.75
3,Linda Green 4-1 2ND FAV AM 5/5
-------------------------------------CSF £19.75 Ex £22.00
4,Diminuto 13-2 AM 3/5
5,The Jailer 5 3RD FAV AM 2/5
6,Mango Music N/R
20:50 Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (4yo+) 1m Standard
1,Dushstorm 1ST 5-2 ***3RD FAV AM 2/4 *** Ex £8.00 CSF £7.92
2,Sekula Pata 16-1
3,Royal Dignitary 2ND 15-8 *** 2ND FAV AM 3/4 ***
------------------------------------------
4,Measured Response N/R
5,Teasing 5-4F AM 1/4
21:20 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) 4yo+ 1m Standard
1,Montrachet 2ND 9-4 *** JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 1/6 *** CSF £30.51 Ex £22.00
2,Miss Marauder 1ST 8-1 AM 5/6
3,Rowan River 9-4 JT 2ND/3RD FAV
4,Power Ballad 2-1F AM 6/6
--------------------------------------
5,Indian's Feather 6 AM 2/6
6,Apple Blossom 11 AM 4/6
TOWCESTER
14:30 Novices´ Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 2m6f Good 16 fences
1,The Empty Tin 33-1 AM 7/9
2,Stolen Moments 1ST 11-4F *** AM 1/9 *** CSF £24.93 Ex £22.60
3,Nikola 5-1 AM 2/9 ***
4,Pass It On 2ND 8-1 AM 5/9
5,Polinamix 7-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV
----------------------------------------
6,Byways Boy N/R
7,The Speaker 9 AM 6/9
8,Mickey Pearce 33
9,In Accord 3RD 7-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 4/9
10,Romeo 125 AM 9/9
15:05 Lady Riders´ Selling Hurdle (Class 5) (4yo+) (2m3f110y) 2m3½f Good 10 hdles
1,Ask The Umpire 20 AM 10/12
2,Barren Lands 3RD 14-1 *** AM 4/12 ***
3,Robbie Can Can 7-1 3RD FAV AM 8/12
4,Backscratcher 100
5,Mialyssa 25
6,Salveo 25
7,Boyastara 4 2ND FAV
-----------------------------------------
8,Grave Doubts 11 AM 9/12
9,Dr Dream 9 AM 7/12
10,Sir Pandy 2ND 25-1 AM 5/12
11,Ask The Gatherer 1ST 6-4F AM 2/12
12,Isa'af 25 AM 11/12
15:40 Handicap Chase(Class 4)5yo+ (3m110y) 3m½f Good 18 fences
1,Carryduff 2ND 9-2 *** 3RD FAV AM 2/10 ***
2,Zacharova 4-1 2ND FAV
3,Read All About It 14-1
4,Croc An Oir 3RD 7-2F *** AM 1/10 ***
5,Nagam 8
6,Sycho Fred 25
-------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £35.40 Tricast: £111.76 Exacta: £37.70
7,The Ring 9 AM 6/10
8,Keepatem 15-2 AM 7/10
9,Radnor Lad 1ST 6-1 AM 3/10 Straight Forecast: £35.40 Exacta: £37.70
10,Padre 33
16:15 Handicap Hurdle(Class 3) 4yo+ 3m Good 12 hdles
1,River Reine 1ST 28-1 AM 11/15 Ex £994.50; CSF £573.52 GOOD ODDS WINNER
2,Ballyboley 16
3,Minster Abbi 6 2ND FAV
4,Delightful Cliche 16
5,Alderman Rose 9
6,Push The Port 7 JT 3RD/4TH FAV
7,Boris The Blade 8
8,Woodlands Genpower 16
-------------------------------TOTE WIN £33.30 PL £10.50, £10.40, £3.40; Ex £994.50; CSF £573.52; TRICAST £5684.65
9,Harrycone Lewis 11-2F AM 13/15
10,Ortega 18 AM 7/15
11,Pangbourne 4TH 7-1 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 4/15
12,Jaloux d'Estruval 33 AM 15/15
13,Heavy Weather N/R
14,Mister Sher 3RD 15-2 AM 2/15
15,Ice And Soda 66 AM 12/15
16,Go West 2ND 25-1 AM 10/15 CSF £573.52 Ex £994.50;
16:50 Novices´ Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+) 2m Good 8 hdles
1,Thenford Snipe 50 AM 14/14
2,Souriceau 4 3RD FAV AM 3/14 ***
3,Pop 1ST 3-1 *** 2ND FAV AM 4/14 ***
4,Badly Bruised N/R
5,Option Money 3RD 12-1 AM 9/14
6,Realism 15-8F
7,Buckshaw 50 AM 11/14
8,Kack Handed 20 AM 6/14
9,Pterodactyl 2ND 11-2 AM 1/14
----------------------------------------
10,Sam McCoombe 50
11,Katy's Classic 100
12,Ocean Fou 100
13,Whitewater Dash N/R
14,Kadouchski 66
15,Immense 22 AM 5/14
16,Luce Bay 100
17:25 Handicap Chase (Class 5) 5yo+ (2m3f110y) 2m3½f Good 14 fences
1,Roaringwater 3RD 7-2 *** 2ND FAV AM 1/14 ***
2,Armoury House 1ST 5-2F *** AM 3/14 *** CSF £56.77 Ex £66.10
3,Judy The Drinker 20 AM 13/14
4,Lockstone Lad 33 AM 10/14
5,Moonlight Music 20 AM 7/14
6,Furze Hill 8 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 4/14
7,Jacarado 8 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 2/14
8,Baron Blitzkrieg 2ND 20-1 AM 8/14
----------------------------------------TOTE WIN £3.80 PL £1.50, £5.00, £1.70; Ex £66.10; CSF £56.77; TRICAST £186.49
9,Log On Intersky 20
10,Heartofmidlothian 25
11,Signature Tune 16 AM 12/14
12,Opal Ridge 11 AM 6/14
13,Ice Cream 14 AM 5/14
14,Better Together 20 AM 11/14
17:55 Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race(Class 5) (4-6yo) 2m Good
1,Alaminos 2ND 15-2 AM 10/15
2,Dont Tell Baby 8 AM 1/15
3,Quannapowitt 3RD 12-1 AM 14/15
4,Overtly Blue 4F
5,Astrop Road 11-2 3RD FAV AM 4/15
6,So Extreme 100
7,Lunar Rock 9
8,Rhinestone Ruby N/R
9,Atherstone Hill 66
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £39.67 Exacta: £51.80
10,Arturo Uno 1ST 9-2 2ND FAV AM 3/15
11,The Little Chancer 18
12,Kings Rhythm 7 AM 13/15
13,Madame Jete 100
14,Woodmaster 50
15,Sun God 66
16,Prince des Marais 14 AM 2/15
Please not that odds on shots are always ignored, unless they are top rated....then a SFC might be considered...though generally won't be done.
Perhaps you will get better understanding of how to spot VALUE and this is based on RANKING in ratings and the odds.
15:20 Novices´ Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 2m4f Good To Soft 16 fences
1,Ballyvoge 1ST 4-11F *** AM 1/5 ***
2,Akilak N/R
3,Allegedly So 7-1 3RD FAV
4,Nicky Tam 3RD 16-1 AM 4/5
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £2.86 Exacta: £2.70
5,Contendo N/R
6,Lord Samposin 2ND 5-1 2ND FAV AM 2/5
7,Tully Hill N/R
8,Fred Bojangals 66
15:55 Handicap Chase (Class 4) 5yo+ 2m4f Good To Soft 16 fences
1,Astyanax 20-1
2,Sparkling Taff 1ST 3-1F *** AM 2/11 ***
3,Lofty Leader 11-1
4,Posh Stick 15-2
5,Mongorno 3RD 25-1 AM 8/11
6,Roschal 16-1
-------------------------------------TOTE WIN £3.60 PL £1.90, £1.40, £7.70; Ex £10.30; CSF £13.67; TRICAST £211.09
7,Sands Rising 5 3RD FAV AM 4/11
8,Kyalami 14 AM 11/11
9,Sweet Memories 20 AM 10/11
10,Chopneyev 2ND 100-30 2ND FAV AM 1/11 CSF £13.67 Ex £10.30
11,Brandy Wine 12 AM 7/11
16:30 Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) 4yo+ 2m4f Good To Soft 9 hdles 2 omitted
1,Commercial Express N/R
2,Bleu Pois 9-2F AM 2/18
3,Troll 12-1 AM 5/18
4,Stravaigin 2ND 9-1 AM 8/18
5,Ever Special 33-1 AM 12/18
6,Solway Bee 3RD 8-1 3RD FAV AM 3/18
7,Toulouse Express 20-1 AM 14/18
8,Topaz Lady 7-1 2ND FAV AM 13/18
9,Wise Choice 1ST 14-1 AM 9/18 CSF £124.78 Ex £395.50 GOOD ODDS WINNER
10,Giant's Rock 50-1 AM 10/18
11,Ballykelly 9-1 AM 11/18
---------------------------------TOTE WIN £23.50 PL £6.00, £3.30, £2.20, £6.70; Ex £395.50; CSF £124.78; TRICAST £1102.56
12,Cha Cha Cha Dancer 20
13,Snowy 4TH 20-1 AM 18/18
14,Devil's Disguise 25
15,Panthers Run 16 AM 1/18
16,Island Key N/R
17,Crystal Runner 28
18,Masterjoe 14 AM 4/18
19,Maylee 80
20,Classic Act 9 AM 6/18
17:05 Handicap Chase (Class 4) 5yo+ 2m Good To Soft 12 fences
1,Nortonthorpe Lad 5-1 AM 2/11 ***
2,Barney 1ST 7-2F AM 6/11 CSF £18.69 Ex £25.30 TRICAST £152.11P ACHIEVED
3,Nevsky Bridge 20-1 AM 5
4,Native Coll 2ND 9-2 ***JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 1/11 ***
5,Norminster 3RD 11-1 AM 3/11
6,The Miner 20-1 AM 4
----------------------------------------TOTE WIN £4.40 PL £1.60, £1.90, £3.90; Ex £25.30; CSF £18.69; TRICAST £152.11Place 6 £ 124.84, Place 5 £ 43.86
7,Hollows Mill 12 AM 9/11
8,Cuccinello 20
9,Stormy Beech 20
10,Oliverjohn 14 AM 8/11
11,Stand On Me 9-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 7/11
FOLKESTONE
14:10 Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5f Good To Soft
1,Soul Sista 2ND 7-1 *** 3RD FAV AM 2/4 *** Straight Forecast: £5.50 Exacta: £5.50
2,Celtic Commitment N/R
3,Strictly Royal 8-1
4,Sorrel Ridge 100-3 2ND FAV
-------------------------------------
5,Miss Belle Eve N/R
6,Northern Tour 1ST 4-6F AM 1/4 Straight Forecast: £5.50 Exacta: £5.50
14:40 Handicap(Class 5) 3yo 6f Good To Soft
1,Blue Jack 7-2F
2,We Have A Dream 1ST 9-2 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 7/10 Straight Forecast: £23.71 Exacta: £25.10
3,Party In The Park 9-2 JT 3RD/4TH FAV
4,Young Ivanhoe 20-1
5,Kalligal 20-1
6,Whiteoak Lady 10-1
--------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £23.71 Tricast: £175.90 Exacta: £25.10
7,Our Acquaintance 3RD 12-1 AM 10/10
8,Copperwood 12 AM 4/10
9,Epsom Salts N/R
10,Baunagain 2ND 4-1 2ND FAV AM 1/10
11,Helping Hand 12 AM 9/10
15:15 Handicap(Class 4) 4yo+ 6f Good To Soft
1,Dickie Le Davoir 8-1
2,Hits Only Jude 7-1
3,Stamford Blue 16-1
4,Golden Desert 9-2 2ND FAV
5,Nobilissima 2ND 6-1 AM 9/10
6,Don Pele 20-1
-------------------------------------
7,Shes Minnie 25
8,Mujood 3RD 5-1 3RD FAV AM 8/10
9,Bonnie Prince Blue 1ST 9-1 AM 2/10
10,Andronikos 4-1F AM 1/10
15:50 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (3yo) (1m1f149y) 1m1½f Good To Soft
1,Riverscape 1ST 13-8F *** AM 2/7 ***
2,L'Orage 66-1
3,The Hoofer 12-1
4,Pharaohs Queen 3RD 2-1 2ND FAV AM 1/7
----------------------------------
5,Dark Camellia N/R
6,Valferno 2ND 8-1 AM 7/7
7,Barring Decree 5 3RD FAV AM 3/7
8,Dancing Ellie 40 AM 6/7
16:25 Handicap (Class 6) 4yo+ (1m1f149y) 1m1½f Good To Soft
1,Princelywallywogan 1ST 6-1 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 11/13 CSF £64.32 Ex £114.50
2,Ruling Reef 3RD 9-2 JF*** AM 2/13 ***
3,The Dagger 7-1
4,Earl Kraul 14-1
5,Amical Risks 9-2JF
6,Etoile d'Or 20-1
7,Personify 25-1
-------------------------------TOTE WIN £8.00 PL £2.70, £3.40, £1.70; Ex £114.50; CSF £64.32; TRICAST £302.55Part won. Pool: £221.34 - 0.50 winning units.
8,Forfeiter 6 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 1/13
9,Muskatsturm 8 AM 13/13
10,Istibian 100
11,Flight Dream 2ND 10-1 AM 3/13
12,Copper King 16 AM 6/13
13,King of Connacht 33
17:00 Handicap(Class 6) 4yo+ 1m4f Good To Soft
1,Top Spec 3-1JF
2,General Flumpa 5-1 3RD FAV
3,Icannshift N/R
4,Street Life 2ND 3-1JF *** AM 2/9 *** Straight Forecast: £79.44 Exacta: £132.80
5,Ashmolian 7-1
6,Compton Charlie 1ST 20-1 AM 8/9 BORDERLINE ONE AT GOOD ODDS
---------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £79.44 Tricast: £536.54 Exacta: £132.80 Trifecta: £0.00
7,Meohmy 8 AM 7/9
8,Berry Hill Lass 3RD 8-1 AM 5/9
9,Tribiani N/R
10,Ardglass 40
11,Sandokan 14 AM 9/9
FONTWELL
14:20 Novices´ Hurdle (Div I(Class 4) (4yo+) (2m2f110y) 2m2½f Good 9 hdles
1,Tampa Boy 2ND 11-10F *** AM 3/10 ***
2,Mole's Chamber 10-1
3,Princess Flame 4-1 3RD FAV
4,Fortification 33-1
5,Psychiatrist 1ST 11-4 2ND FAV AM 1/10
6,Cilla Black 20-1
--------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £6.58 Exacta: £8.50
7,Storm Surge 80
8,Just A Thought 14 AM 4/10
9,Quaystone Lady 100
10,Kilmeena Magic 3RD 33-1 AM 5/10
14:55 Hurdle (Div II)(Class 4) (4yo+) (2m2f110y) 2m2½f Good 9 hdles
1,Theatre Girl 1ST 2-9F *** AM 1/9 ***
2,Pepito Collonges 25-1 AM 5/9
3,Quillan Hill 5-1 2ND FAV AM 2/9 ***
4,Ouzbeck N/R
5,Sparkys Reflection 100-1 AM 8/9
6,Fit To Drive 2ND 20-1 3RD FAV AM 4/9 Straight Forecast: £8.60 Exacta: £7.40
-----------------------------------
7,Missus Jones 66
8,Debord 66
9,Sumdancer 3RD 25-1 AM 6/9
10,Let Em Come 100
15:30 Handicap Chase (Class 5) 5yo+ (3m2f110y) 3m2½f Good 19 fences
1,Kappelhoff 10-1
2,Carroll's O'Tully 13-2 3RD FAV
3,Kisha King 16-1
4,Boardroom Dancer 1ST 12-1 AM 11/14 Ex £804.10; CSF £232.77
5,Peveril Pride 12-1
6,Another Chat 9-2F
7,Lucky Luk 6-1 2ND FAV
8,Ours 10-1 AM 12/14
----------------------------------------TOTE WIN £21.30 PL £6.10, £8.30, £4.20; Ex £804.10; CSF £232.77; TRICAST £6465.95
9,Victree 7 AM 3/14
10,Jackella 16
11,Stormy Skye 16
12,Harry Collins 10 AM 10/14
13,The Laying Hen 3RD 28-1 AM 9/14
14,Dads Lad N/R
15,Mystical Star 2ND 20-1 AM 7/14 CSF £232.77 Ex £804.10;
16:05 Novices´ Selling Hurdle (Class 5) (4yo+) 2m4f Good 10 hdles
1,Councillor Jack N/R
2,Sea Map 5-1 3RD FAV
3,Tiffin Deano 50-1
4,Cavalry Twill 5-2F
5,Denise's Dip 2ND 8-1 AM 5/12
6,Relative Hero 3RD 4-1 2ND FAV AM 2/12
7,Capestreet 8-1
8,Lyrical Girl 100-1
---------------------------------------
9,Fine Edge 50
10,Night Groove 16 AM 7/12
11,Team Secret 50
12,Lady Romanov 16 AM 8/12
13,Music Celebre 1ST 7-1 AM 1/12
14,Worcester Lodge N/R
16:40 Handicap Chase (Class 4) 5yo+ 2m2f Good 13 fences
1,Cleymor House 9-2 3RD FAV
2,Count Kristo 1ST 100-30F *** AM 1/11 ***
3,Space Cowboy 3RD 7-2 2ND FAV AM 5/11
4,Spinaround 14-1
5,Secret GlenTOTE 16-1
6,Wishes Or Watches 28-1
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £67.50 Tricast: £255.34 Exacta: £113.70
7,Lease Back 2ND 20-1 AM 7/11
8,Inn For The Dancer 8 AM 2/11
9,Freedom Frix 11-2 AM 4/11
10,Golden Crew 12 AM 6/11
11,Ballyrainey 33
17:15 Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap HurdleClass 5) 4yo+ (2m6f110y) 2m6½f Good 11 hdles
1,Wild Ground 11-4F
2,Lazy But Lively 20
3,War Pennant 8
4,Silistra 33
5,Master Wolfe 11
6,Novi Sad 28
7,Imperial Harry 6 3RD FAV
8,Tanktastic 40
9,Midnight Ocean N/R
10,Lilac Wine 4TH 33-1 AM 7/16
---------------------------------TOTE WIN £15.60 PL £3.90, £5.20, £1.90, £5.90; Ex £282.90; CSF £199.58; TRICAST £1143.06
11,Pearly Star N/R
12,Psychic Star 16
13,Hermano Cordobes 3RD 5-1 2ND FAV AM 2/16
14,Deep Pockets 1ST 10-1 AM 3/16
15,Northern Endeavour 16
16,Fairlight Shadow 2ND 20-1 AM 13/16
17,Himba 20 AM 15/16
18,Deoraoicht 20 AM 12/16
17:45 Hunters´ Chase(Class 6) (5yo+) 2m4f Good
1,General Alarm N/R
2,Hatsnall N/R
3,Sesame Rambler 1ST 13-8F *** AM 2/8 ***
4,Highway Oak 2ND 7-2 *** 3RD FAV AM 3/8 *** Ex £6.50 CSF £8.07
5,Jurado Express N/R
6,Urban Rebel 5-2 2ND FAV AM 1/8 ***
7,Saddlers Cloth 11
8,Kadito 20
------------------------------------
9,Watership Down 3RD 10-1 AM 6/8
10,Scarlet Fantasy 33
11,Ilabon 11 AM 8/8
KEMPTON
18:50 Handicap (Class 6) 4yo+ 1m2f Standard
1,Tabulate 10
2,Western Roots 1ST 8-1 AM 9/11
3,Play Up Pompey 7
4,Siena Star 2ND 11-2 *** JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 4/11 ***
5,Magic Amigo 6
---------------------------------TOTE WIN £15.60 PL £5.00, £2.60, £4.30; Ex £78.30; CSF £56.40; TRICAST £422.73
6,Weet Yer Tern 6 AM 7/11
7,Bowl of Cherries 9-2F AM 5/11
8,Shaheer 20
9,Krakatau 11-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 2/11
10,Patavium Prince 3RD 9-1 AM 3/11
11,Tykie Two 33
19:20 Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 1m2f Standard
1,Irish Mayhem N/R
2,Judgethemoment 1ST 11-4 3RD FAV*** AM 3/5 *** Straight Forecast: £36.26 Exacta: £28.50
3,Talayeb 13-8 2ND FAV AM 1/5 ***
4,Tharawaat EVENS F AM 2/5 ***
-------------------------------------
5,Quws Vision 50
6,Ben Ami ²ND 14-1 AM 4/5 Straight Forecast: £36.26 Exacta: £28.50
1;:50 Handicap(Class 4) 3yo 5f Standard
1,Brassini 11
2,Valhillen 3RD 100-30 2ND FAV
3,Wavertree Princess 13-2
4,Your Pleasure 5-2F
-----------------------------m-------
5,Van Bossed 2ND 6-1 AM 7/7
6,Enodoc ` 13-2 AM 2/7
7,Storey Hill 1ST 4-1 3RD FAV AM 3/7
20:20 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) 4yo+ 6f Standard
1,Expensive Art 2ND 4-5F AM 4/5
2,Is It Time 1ST 10-1 *** AM 1/5 *** Ex £22.00 CSF £19.75
3,Linda Green 4-1 2ND FAV AM 5/5
-------------------------------------CSF £19.75 Ex £22.00
4,Diminuto 13-2 AM 3/5
5,The Jailer 5 3RD FAV AM 2/5
6,Mango Music N/R
20:50 Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (4yo+) 1m Standard
1,Dushstorm 1ST 5-2 ***3RD FAV AM 2/4 *** Ex £8.00 CSF £7.92
2,Sekula Pata 16-1
3,Royal Dignitary 2ND 15-8 *** 2ND FAV AM 3/4 ***
------------------------------------------
4,Measured Response N/R
5,Teasing 5-4F AM 1/4
21:20 Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) 4yo+ 1m Standard
1,Montrachet 2ND 9-4 *** JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 1/6 *** CSF £30.51 Ex £22.00
2,Miss Marauder 1ST 8-1 AM 5/6
3,Rowan River 9-4 JT 2ND/3RD FAV
4,Power Ballad 2-1F AM 6/6
--------------------------------------
5,Indian's Feather 6 AM 2/6
6,Apple Blossom 11 AM 4/6
TOWCESTER
14:30 Novices´ Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 2m6f Good 16 fences
1,The Empty Tin 33-1 AM 7/9
2,Stolen Moments 1ST 11-4F *** AM 1/9 *** CSF £24.93 Ex £22.60
3,Nikola 5-1 AM 2/9 ***
4,Pass It On 2ND 8-1 AM 5/9
5,Polinamix 7-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV
----------------------------------------
6,Byways Boy N/R
7,The Speaker 9 AM 6/9
8,Mickey Pearce 33
9,In Accord 3RD 7-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV AM 4/9
10,Romeo 125 AM 9/9
15:05 Lady Riders´ Selling Hurdle (Class 5) (4yo+) (2m3f110y) 2m3½f Good 10 hdles
1,Ask The Umpire 20 AM 10/12
2,Barren Lands 3RD 14-1 *** AM 4/12 ***
3,Robbie Can Can 7-1 3RD FAV AM 8/12
4,Backscratcher 100
5,Mialyssa 25
6,Salveo 25
7,Boyastara 4 2ND FAV
-----------------------------------------
8,Grave Doubts 11 AM 9/12
9,Dr Dream 9 AM 7/12
10,Sir Pandy 2ND 25-1 AM 5/12
11,Ask The Gatherer 1ST 6-4F AM 2/12
12,Isa'af 25 AM 11/12
15:40 Handicap Chase(Class 4)5yo+ (3m110y) 3m½f Good 18 fences
1,Carryduff 2ND 9-2 *** 3RD FAV AM 2/10 ***
2,Zacharova 4-1 2ND FAV
3,Read All About It 14-1
4,Croc An Oir 3RD 7-2F *** AM 1/10 ***
5,Nagam 8
6,Sycho Fred 25
-------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £35.40 Tricast: £111.76 Exacta: £37.70
7,The Ring 9 AM 6/10
8,Keepatem 15-2 AM 7/10
9,Radnor Lad 1ST 6-1 AM 3/10 Straight Forecast: £35.40 Exacta: £37.70
10,Padre 33
16:15 Handicap Hurdle(Class 3) 4yo+ 3m Good 12 hdles
1,River Reine 1ST 28-1 AM 11/15 Ex £994.50; CSF £573.52 GOOD ODDS WINNER
2,Ballyboley 16
3,Minster Abbi 6 2ND FAV
4,Delightful Cliche 16
5,Alderman Rose 9
6,Push The Port 7 JT 3RD/4TH FAV
7,Boris The Blade 8
8,Woodlands Genpower 16
-------------------------------TOTE WIN £33.30 PL £10.50, £10.40, £3.40; Ex £994.50; CSF £573.52; TRICAST £5684.65
9,Harrycone Lewis 11-2F AM 13/15
10,Ortega 18 AM 7/15
11,Pangbourne 4TH 7-1 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 4/15
12,Jaloux d'Estruval 33 AM 15/15
13,Heavy Weather N/R
14,Mister Sher 3RD 15-2 AM 2/15
15,Ice And Soda 66 AM 12/15
16,Go West 2ND 25-1 AM 10/15 CSF £573.52 Ex £994.50;
16:50 Novices´ Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+) 2m Good 8 hdles
1,Thenford Snipe 50 AM 14/14
2,Souriceau 4 3RD FAV AM 3/14 ***
3,Pop 1ST 3-1 *** 2ND FAV AM 4/14 ***
4,Badly Bruised N/R
5,Option Money 3RD 12-1 AM 9/14
6,Realism 15-8F
7,Buckshaw 50 AM 11/14
8,Kack Handed 20 AM 6/14
9,Pterodactyl 2ND 11-2 AM 1/14
----------------------------------------
10,Sam McCoombe 50
11,Katy's Classic 100
12,Ocean Fou 100
13,Whitewater Dash N/R
14,Kadouchski 66
15,Immense 22 AM 5/14
16,Luce Bay 100
17:25 Handicap Chase (Class 5) 5yo+ (2m3f110y) 2m3½f Good 14 fences
1,Roaringwater 3RD 7-2 *** 2ND FAV AM 1/14 ***
2,Armoury House 1ST 5-2F *** AM 3/14 *** CSF £56.77 Ex £66.10
3,Judy The Drinker 20 AM 13/14
4,Lockstone Lad 33 AM 10/14
5,Moonlight Music 20 AM 7/14
6,Furze Hill 8 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 4/14
7,Jacarado 8 JT 3RD/4TH FAV AM 2/14
8,Baron Blitzkrieg 2ND 20-1 AM 8/14
----------------------------------------TOTE WIN £3.80 PL £1.50, £5.00, £1.70; Ex £66.10; CSF £56.77; TRICAST £186.49
9,Log On Intersky 20
10,Heartofmidlothian 25
11,Signature Tune 16 AM 12/14
12,Opal Ridge 11 AM 6/14
13,Ice Cream 14 AM 5/14
14,Better Together 20 AM 11/14
17:55 Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race(Class 5) (4-6yo) 2m Good
1,Alaminos 2ND 15-2 AM 10/15
2,Dont Tell Baby 8 AM 1/15
3,Quannapowitt 3RD 12-1 AM 14/15
4,Overtly Blue 4F
5,Astrop Road 11-2 3RD FAV AM 4/15
6,So Extreme 100
7,Lunar Rock 9
8,Rhinestone Ruby N/R
9,Atherstone Hill 66
------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £39.67 Exacta: £51.80
10,Arturo Uno 1ST 9-2 2ND FAV AM 3/15
11,The Little Chancer 18
12,Kings Rhythm 7 AM 13/15
13,Madame Jete 100
14,Woodmaster 50
15,Sun God 66
16,Prince des Marais 14 AM 2/15
thats a lot of work, well done.
But if my strike rate is better than your odds then I win. n'est pas ?
But if my strike rate is better than your odds then I win. n'est pas ?
"value is waiting for a horse that is at a better price than you think it should be, and while waiting you miss out."
Do you mean the horse is currently at a better price than you think it should be and you are waiting for the price to get even better?
Do you mean the horse is currently at a better price than you think it should be and you are waiting for the price to get even better?
I mean that you are waiting for a price that is better than you think its chance of winning is.
eg I think its a 5/2 chance so Im waiting for 3/1
eg I think its a 5/2 chance so Im waiting for 3/1
On the day above...if you applied the strategies of BACKING and LAYING 1st/2nd and 3rd favs where there was a VALUE bet ...you would have made about 25 points to level stakes, after commission.
You certainly would be unlikely to better that if just punted for fun that day re the same races......but you could on a day where your brain worked up to high standard......
The 4 odds on shots that day would have given you a loss, as only 2 won at c ra p odds.
You certainly would be unlikely to better that if just punted for fun that day re the same races......but you could on a day where your brain worked up to high standard......
The 4 odds on shots that day would have given you a loss, as only 2 won at c ra p odds.
'on the day' - but Im talking about long term.
to be fair, long term is a mythical measurement used by statisticans; just how long is 'long term' anyway.
i googled this and its called stochastic behaviour - apparently its better to have a consistent but high frequency of return.
but then I know nuthin.
to be fair, long term is a mythical measurement used by statisticans; just how long is 'long term' anyway.
i googled this and its called stochastic behaviour - apparently its better to have a consistent but high frequency of return.
but then I know nuthin.
this surely must win the prize for a whole page of clever stuff that I didnt understand an bleedin' word
http://ebooks.cambridge.org/chapter.jsf?bid=CBO9780511599989&cid=CBO9780511599989A010
http://ebooks.cambridge.org/chapter.jsf?bid=CBO9780511599989&cid=CBO9780511599989A010
BACK
DAILY
PROFIT
OR LOSS
TOTAL
PROFIT 356.7735
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
FAVS
30 days 52.644
33days 32.81
2ND FAVS
22 days 14.08
30 days 52.046
3RD FAVS
21 days 86.8805
35 days 118.313
ROI 17.54911461
NUMBER
BETS 2033
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 10438.32
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 5.134441712
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 1547
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 486
STRIKE-RATE 23.90555829
==============================================================
ROI is important.......and over 2,000 selections is a fair number of bets to judge consistency IMO....
DAILY
PROFIT
OR LOSS
TOTAL
PROFIT 356.7735
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
FAVS
30 days 52.644
33days 32.81
2ND FAVS
22 days 14.08
30 days 52.046
3RD FAVS
21 days 86.8805
35 days 118.313
ROI 17.54911461
NUMBER
BETS 2033
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 10438.32
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 5.134441712
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 1547
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 486
STRIKE-RATE 23.90555829
==============================================================
ROI is important.......and over 2,000 selections is a fair number of bets to judge consistency IMO....
Im not debating ROI, but perhaps a better way to acheive a profitable one
You won't get it by STRIKE-RATE obsession......only getting value in odds.
clearly you can if your strike rate is better than your average odds.
Is that average odds of WINNERS or average odds for all bets?
Forget my last post ..as not paying much attention to thread....racing on etc etc etc
I think the more this is debated the more I feel that
A strike rate that is greater than the price bet is everything
eg 45% strike rate of odds 6/4
is better than
40% strike rate of odds 7/4
for useful betting that is, not a maths excercise (which is the point Im making)
A strike rate that is greater than the price bet is everything
eg 45% strike rate of odds 6/4
is better than
40% strike rate of odds 7/4
for useful betting that is, not a maths excercise (which is the point Im making)
You need a strike rate that is greater than the price bet to make a profit.......
However, it is a case of deciding whether the 6-4 shot is VALUE on that race........some are and some are about right in odds and some are just lays.
You say you are using "skill".....but does your brain work consistently well enough compared to systematic approach to betting.
RATED races can indicate which ones are VALUE and which are not.....consistently.
The brain tends to be less likely to be as consistent compared to systematic approach.
You are just betting for "fun".......which is fair enough.
GL with bets.
However, it is a case of deciding whether the 6-4 shot is VALUE on that race........some are and some are about right in odds and some are just lays.
You say you are using "skill".....but does your brain work consistently well enough compared to systematic approach to betting.
RATED races can indicate which ones are VALUE and which are not.....consistently.
The brain tends to be less likely to be as consistent compared to systematic approach.
You are just betting for "fun".......which is fair enough.
GL with bets.
ok dfc (cant use that surely)
whats better
45% strike rate of odds 6/4
or
40% strike rate of odds 7/4
?
whats better
45% strike rate of odds 6/4
or
40% strike rate of odds 7/4
?
Bank 5000 pts.
Bet 1) Liverpool not to win v Blackburn @ approx 2.10
My estimate: 1.80
Stake = 15.5% = 776.93 pts
Bet 1) Liverpool not to win v Blackburn @ approx 2.10
My estimate: 1.80
Stake = 15.5% = 776.93 pts
Numbers keep changing too quickly in running, so going to kkep info to a minimum.
Bet 2)
Rochdale v Sheff Utd over 7,5 goals @ 1.83
My estimate 1.70
Stake = 279.00pts
Bet 2)
Rochdale v Sheff Utd over 7,5 goals @ 1.83
My estimate 1.70
Stake = 279.00pts
Bets 1 @ 2 losers. Bank = 3944.07 points.
That was almost impossible to make the calculations on in-running games, things were changing so fast. Also chose not to cash out big Blackburn profit in injury time, despite feeling Liverpool looked dangerous. A clear mistake. Two lessons learned.
That was almost impossible to make the calculations on in-running games, things were changing so fast. Also chose not to cash out big Blackburn profit in injury time, despite feeling Liverpool looked dangerous. A clear mistake. Two lessons learned.
ul H Bomb,yes hard to price up in running, the people that do likely have detailed charts for that
Lex ,
Getting a SR better than your average odds over time you have to be placing value bets wether you believe in it or not.
The 'missing a winner' is a red herring . People who take the value approach want to back anything that is a value price.
They do not decide on a selection and then hope it reaches a value price.
eg Frankel at Newbury next month...... Given the sort of opposition i'd expect him to have i'd say 4/11 would be a value price and i'd certainly like to back him at those odds . If he is 2/9 then i wouldn't bother . If he then won easily i would not regret not backing him @2/9 as i never had any interest in doing so to begin with.
Lex ,
Getting a SR better than your average odds over time you have to be placing value bets wether you believe in it or not.
The 'missing a winner' is a red herring . People who take the value approach want to back anything that is a value price.
They do not decide on a selection and then hope it reaches a value price.
eg Frankel at Newbury next month...... Given the sort of opposition i'd expect him to have i'd say 4/11 would be a value price and i'd certainly like to back him at those odds . If he is 2/9 then i wouldn't bother . If he then won easily i would not regret not backing him @2/9 as i never had any interest in doing so to begin with.
45% strike rate of odds 6/4
40% strike rate of odds 7/4
I know both examples are value bets of course (!)
But what Im saying is, from a punting point of view, a higher strike rate is better
40% strike rate of odds 7/4
I know both examples are value bets of course (!)
But what Im saying is, from a punting point of view, a higher strike rate is better
My "strike-rate" in naps competition is probably the lowest rate in league.......but still have a plus figure at SP for this year.
There are many in Divisions who have significantly higher SRs....but are lower down the YEARLY NAPS table than me.
So when you say a higher SR is "better", this is just not factually correct.
Most of winners I get in NAPS comp are at significantly higher odds on BF , than the SP used for the comp. Only roughly 2 points up at SP in current year in comp.......which may not appear to be much good......but still with a low strike-rate ( probably about 5%) there are many with 45% strike-rates who have negative figures in comp....
There are many in Divisions who have significantly higher SRs....but are lower down the YEARLY NAPS table than me.
So when you say a higher SR is "better", this is just not factually correct.
Most of winners I get in NAPS comp are at significantly higher odds on BF , than the SP used for the comp. Only roughly 2 points up at SP in current year in comp.......which may not appear to be much good......but still with a low strike-rate ( probably about 5%) there are many with 45% strike-rates who have negative figures in comp....
My SR in comp is only about 21% at best this year ....and down near 5% on poor months....
Lex,
what's better here:
40% strike rate of odds 6/4
39% strike rate of odds 7/4
?
what's better here:
40% strike rate of odds 6/4
39% strike rate of odds 7/4
?
now youre just teasing me.
only one is value now.
But that (again) aint wot me is sayin.
a higher strike rate is better
only one is value now.
But that (again) aint wot me is sayin.
a higher strike rate is better
yes, but there are other factors... that's what I was trying to demonstrate
Statistics are always over 'the long term'
but long term is not realistic.
6/4 winners might do well this week but over the next month, not so much. So over an indefinable term then strike rate is more important.
if youre betting odds against then over the long term you will get more losers than winners but short term you may not.
but long term is not realistic.
6/4 winners might do well this week but over the next month, not so much. So over an indefinable term then strike rate is more important.
if youre betting odds against then over the long term you will get more losers than winners but short term you may not.
say your 'long term' is 1000 bets
and your average odds for your system is 3.0
you want to win £100 from your system asap
your bet is £20 (a bigger stake will reach your target faster)
as soon as your strike rate is better than 33% then you get £100 (eg better than 333 wins)
You profit because of value but it was strike rate that was more important.
and your average odds for your system is 3.0
you want to win £100 from your system asap
your bet is £20 (a bigger stake will reach your target faster)
as soon as your strike rate is better than 33% then you get £100 (eg better than 333 wins)
You profit because of value but it was strike rate that was more important.
Probably nobody was interested anyway, but I think I'm going to have to abandon my trial. Posting info on all the bets is simply too time consuming, especially if trying to bet in running.
It's been a crazy day today, made lots of bets. Nicely up though thanks to a bet that didn't even really fit into the system...a rogue accumulator:
All Sports Man City, Over 2.5 Goals, Under 3.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Goals, Australia, Mumbai Indians
Back 30783352 11-Apr-12
13:46 1 - 800.0 Matched
Man City, Over 2.5 Goals, Under 3.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Goals, Australia, Mumbai Indians
Back 237962537 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 13.18 800.0 Matched
Man City v West Brom Match Odds:
Man City Back 918296246 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.28 - Won
Wolves v Arsenal Over/Under 2.5 goals:
Over 2.5 Goals Back 918296247 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.55 - Won
Wigan v Man Utd Over/Under 3.5 Goals:
Under 3.5 Goals Back 918296248 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.41 - Won
Valencia v Rayo Vallecano Over/Under 2.5 goals:
Over 2.5 Goals Back 918296249 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.59 - Won
West Indies v Australia (1st Test) Match Odds:
Australia Back 918296250 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.86 - Matched
Mumbai v Rajasthan Match Odds:
Mumbai Indians Back 918296251 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.56 - Won
Aussies have just won, so that takes the pot to over 10,000 now.
But like I said, just so time consuming.
Apologies.
It's been a crazy day today, made lots of bets. Nicely up though thanks to a bet that didn't even really fit into the system...a rogue accumulator:
All Sports Man City, Over 2.5 Goals, Under 3.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Goals, Australia, Mumbai Indians
Back 30783352 11-Apr-12
13:46 1 - 800.0 Matched
Man City, Over 2.5 Goals, Under 3.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Goals, Australia, Mumbai Indians
Back 237962537 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 13.18 800.0 Matched
Man City v West Brom Match Odds:
Man City Back 918296246 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.28 - Won
Wolves v Arsenal Over/Under 2.5 goals:
Over 2.5 Goals Back 918296247 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.55 - Won
Wigan v Man Utd Over/Under 3.5 Goals:
Under 3.5 Goals Back 918296248 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.41 - Won
Valencia v Rayo Vallecano Over/Under 2.5 goals:
Over 2.5 Goals Back 918296249 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.59 - Won
West Indies v Australia (1st Test) Match Odds:
Australia Back 918296250 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.86 - Matched
Mumbai v Rajasthan Match Odds:
Mumbai Indians Back 918296251 11-Apr-12
13:46 - 1.56 - Won
Aussies have just won, so that takes the pot to over 10,000 now.
But like I said, just so time consuming.
Apologies.
Not to mention:
2012-04-12
02:46 19321532901 2012-04-12
02:22 Doubles Matches Blake/Querrey v Souza/Zeballos / Match Odds / Blake/Querrey
Back 4.00 1,000.00 Won 3,000.00
2012-04-12
02:46 19321530180 2012-04-12
02:22 Doubles Matches Blake/Querrey v Souza/Zeballos / Match Odds / Blake/Querrey
Back 2.60 983.00 Won 1,573.39
Which takes the pot to over 15,000.
Staking in running getting out of control though.
No time to calculate Kelly stakes properly when prices are moving so fast.
I can see this leading to big problems.
2012-04-12
02:46 19321532901 2012-04-12
02:22 Doubles Matches Blake/Querrey v Souza/Zeballos / Match Odds / Blake/Querrey
Back 4.00 1,000.00 Won 3,000.00
2012-04-12
02:46 19321530180 2012-04-12
02:22 Doubles Matches Blake/Querrey v Souza/Zeballos / Match Odds / Blake/Querrey
Back 2.60 983.00 Won 1,573.39
Which takes the pot to over 15,000.
Staking in running getting out of control though.
No time to calculate Kelly stakes properly when prices are moving so fast.
I can see this leading to big problems.
Sorry for hi jacking your thread h-bomb, I for one thnk youre doing a very impressive job here and if my selection skills were half as good as yours I would be betting much more seriously!
Well done and if you do get the time, please keep posting.
Well done and if you do get the time, please keep posting.
h-bomb - thanks for starting thread. Some useful information/ideas posted by contributors.
JLivermore 's post early on re STAKING was particularly useful for me ( Using KELLY and edge/odds to arrive at STAKE %).
I had checked BACKING top 3 in market to WIN, and had stats lumping results together. This produced ROI 13.55% from 2,410 selections. However, have now broken stats down to those for favs/2nd favs/3rd favs and the ROI for each category is 13.09%, 4.54% and 21.57% respectively. Average odds , using BF SP, naturally differs for each category, and the STAKING % now indicated is as follows -
FAVS with average odds 3.06 ( ie 3.06-1)...STAKING % 4.27
2ND FAVS...............4.53 ...............STAKING % 0.96
3RD FAVS...............7.21................STAKING % 2.99
STAKING is , for me, one of hardest parts re betting.
I am aware that even armed with above STAKING %s for each category, that I will still be betting in a crude way, as no account being taken to try to evaluate the value on each bet.
However, the above STAKING %s at least are attemptig to bet in a more efficient way than the even cruder LEVEL STAKES method on all bets.
GL with bets.
JLivermore 's post early on re STAKING was particularly useful for me ( Using KELLY and edge/odds to arrive at STAKE %).
I had checked BACKING top 3 in market to WIN, and had stats lumping results together. This produced ROI 13.55% from 2,410 selections. However, have now broken stats down to those for favs/2nd favs/3rd favs and the ROI for each category is 13.09%, 4.54% and 21.57% respectively. Average odds , using BF SP, naturally differs for each category, and the STAKING % now indicated is as follows -
FAVS with average odds 3.06 ( ie 3.06-1)...STAKING % 4.27
2ND FAVS...............4.53 ...............STAKING % 0.96
3RD FAVS...............7.21................STAKING % 2.99
STAKING is , for me, one of hardest parts re betting.
I am aware that even armed with above STAKING %s for each category, that I will still be betting in a crude way, as no account being taken to try to evaluate the value on each bet.
However, the above STAKING %s at least are attemptig to bet in a more efficient way than the even cruder LEVEL STAKES method on all bets.
GL with bets.
Again, not really time to post. But I'm going for Chardy in the tennis, and Chennai to do better than expected in cricket. Currently getting pummelled by Bangelore, but I think they can make it close. Will try post later.
I'm glad people are getting something out of the discussion. It's good that we can have a discussion without people getting abusive, as usually happens on the Betfair forum.
For what it's worth, and I'm sure there'll be plenty of you who disagree with me, this is what I think.
For me it's quite simple:
Strike Rate x Price = RETURN
eg. 50% x Evens = money back.
or 0.50 x 2.00 = 1.00, to a one unit stake.
(Not counting commission)
Therefore:
Increased S.R. needs price to remain the same for your return to increase.
Likewise, getting an increased price (or as we like to call it - Value) means your S.R can't afford to drop.
To profit, you have to:
1) Be able to get an above-expected price (i.e. value) with EVERY SINGLE SELECTION YOU MAKE. This is extremely difficult to do. Also, if you get value, but only back one football team for example every day, then there is a very real chance that all your selections, no matter how good value, could all lose. It ONLY WORKS,if you get value every time AND you can maintain an expected strike rate.
OR
2) Be able to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price. Value here isn't crucial, but you do at least have to get what would be the true market price or very close to it.
3) Combine both 1 and 2. Utopia.
Most people on here advocate getting value. This makes total sense. You're getting a better price than others. But you need to get it consistently or you'll lose. Otherwise we could all just be watching matches all day, and the moment an in-running price went above its S.P. we would back it, get value and retire in the sun. For those who can do it consistently though it should mean a regular, if perhaps small, profit.
Almost everyone here thinks it's impossible to back more winners than the odds suggest. a Dream world. I disagree. All my trials and experiences tell me it's entirely possible. But, I think very, very, very few people can do it.
So in this sense I agree with Lex. Strike rate is as equally as important as value. It's just harder to achieve. But they are brother and sister. One is dependent on the other. Getting value relies on your strike rate remaining as odds would expect. And an above average strike rate depends on your prices being close to S.P.
My trials have shown consistent profit using bookies prices (which I don't think anyone would call value). That's because my strike rate is consistently above expectation.
The issues I'm now trying to work out (as I do believe I'm sitting on a potential goldmine) are issues that I believe people continue to underestimate, but which are just as crucial as value and strike rate. These are BANK MANAGEMENT, DISCIPLINE and MARKET LIQUIDITY.
These are proving difficult skills for me to master. But my efforts continue.
I appreciate that many of you will probably disagree with my comments. And I may well be wrong.
But at this particular moment in time, I strongly believe them to be true.
For what it's worth, and I'm sure there'll be plenty of you who disagree with me, this is what I think.
For me it's quite simple:
Strike Rate x Price = RETURN
eg. 50% x Evens = money back.
or 0.50 x 2.00 = 1.00, to a one unit stake.
(Not counting commission)
Therefore:
Increased S.R. needs price to remain the same for your return to increase.
Likewise, getting an increased price (or as we like to call it - Value) means your S.R can't afford to drop.
To profit, you have to:
1) Be able to get an above-expected price (i.e. value) with EVERY SINGLE SELECTION YOU MAKE. This is extremely difficult to do. Also, if you get value, but only back one football team for example every day, then there is a very real chance that all your selections, no matter how good value, could all lose. It ONLY WORKS,if you get value every time AND you can maintain an expected strike rate.
OR
2) Be able to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price. Value here isn't crucial, but you do at least have to get what would be the true market price or very close to it.
3) Combine both 1 and 2. Utopia.
Most people on here advocate getting value. This makes total sense. You're getting a better price than others. But you need to get it consistently or you'll lose. Otherwise we could all just be watching matches all day, and the moment an in-running price went above its S.P. we would back it, get value and retire in the sun. For those who can do it consistently though it should mean a regular, if perhaps small, profit.
Almost everyone here thinks it's impossible to back more winners than the odds suggest. a Dream world. I disagree. All my trials and experiences tell me it's entirely possible. But, I think very, very, very few people can do it.
So in this sense I agree with Lex. Strike rate is as equally as important as value. It's just harder to achieve. But they are brother and sister. One is dependent on the other. Getting value relies on your strike rate remaining as odds would expect. And an above average strike rate depends on your prices being close to S.P.
My trials have shown consistent profit using bookies prices (which I don't think anyone would call value). That's because my strike rate is consistently above expectation.
The issues I'm now trying to work out (as I do believe I'm sitting on a potential goldmine) are issues that I believe people continue to underestimate, but which are just as crucial as value and strike rate. These are BANK MANAGEMENT, DISCIPLINE and MARKET LIQUIDITY.
These are proving difficult skills for me to master. But my efforts continue.
I appreciate that many of you will probably disagree with my comments. And I may well be wrong.
But at this particular moment in time, I strongly believe them to be true.
P.S.
Thanks to everyone for their contributions. A lot of intelligent observations have been made, which I have personally found very useful.
The fact that I've put on an occasional accumulator (old habits die hard) again shows you I'm struggling with a lack of discipline, as I know they will eat into any profit.
But for old times sake, and for fun, here is my acc. for this weekend
1 Birmingham v Bristol City (Backing Birmingham @ 1.49)
2 Pune v Chennai (Backing Chennai Super Kings @ 1.6)
3 Berlocq v F Lopez (Backing Carlos Berlocq @ 1.54)
4 Norwich v Man City (Backing Man City @ 1.54)
5 Sunderland v Wolves - Over/Under 3.5 Goals (Backing Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.48)
6 Zenit St Petersburg v CSKA Moscow (Laying Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.15)
7 Levante v Barcelona - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.5)
8 Nottm Forest v Blackpool (Laying Nottm Forest @ 2.57)
Combined odds. of 39.26 using Betfair's outrageous, multiples rip-off prices.
Thanks to everyone for their contributions. A lot of intelligent observations have been made, which I have personally found very useful.
The fact that I've put on an occasional accumulator (old habits die hard) again shows you I'm struggling with a lack of discipline, as I know they will eat into any profit.
But for old times sake, and for fun, here is my acc. for this weekend
1 Birmingham v Bristol City (Backing Birmingham @ 1.49)
2 Pune v Chennai (Backing Chennai Super Kings @ 1.6)
3 Berlocq v F Lopez (Backing Carlos Berlocq @ 1.54)
4 Norwich v Man City (Backing Man City @ 1.54)
5 Sunderland v Wolves - Over/Under 3.5 Goals (Backing Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.48)
6 Zenit St Petersburg v CSKA Moscow (Laying Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.15)
7 Levante v Barcelona - Over/Under 2.5 goals (Backing Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.5)
8 Nottm Forest v Blackpool (Laying Nottm Forest @ 2.57)
Combined odds. of 39.26 using Betfair's outrageous, multiples rip-off prices.
Amazing that you people can spend hours discussing strike rate vs value when it's basically the same thing.
It's only possible to have a better than expected strike rate long term because you get value prices.
It's only possible to have a better than expected strike rate long term because you get value prices.
I am smiling, but the last few comments make me feel like I should stop posting... but some sick part of me wants to try again, so here goes:
"1) Be able to get an above-expected price (i.e. value) with EVERY SINGLE SELECTION YOU MAKE." - this is VALUE.
"2) Be able to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price." - if the market price is fair then this must be LUCK
"Most people on here advocate getting value. This makes total sense. You're getting a better price than others." - this isn't true... everyone betting the same direction as you can get the same (value) price
"Be able to get... value... with EVERY SINGLE SELECTION YOU MAKE." - Value is not observable (because exact chances of things happening are not knowable) - you can only estimate it - so determining whether value was found is just not possible in single selections, so, in that sense, you just shouldn't worry about it.
This might help:
http://www.beatbookies.com/blog/value-bets-and-value-odds/
"1) Be able to get an above-expected price (i.e. value) with EVERY SINGLE SELECTION YOU MAKE." - this is VALUE.
"2) Be able to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price." - if the market price is fair then this must be LUCK
"Most people on here advocate getting value. This makes total sense. You're getting a better price than others." - this isn't true... everyone betting the same direction as you can get the same (value) price
"Be able to get... value... with EVERY SINGLE SELECTION YOU MAKE." - Value is not observable (because exact chances of things happening are not knowable) - you can only estimate it - so determining whether value was found is just not possible in single selections, so, in that sense, you just shouldn't worry about it.
This might help:
http://www.beatbookies.com/blog/value-bets-and-value-odds/
That column advises backing at odds higher than you'd expect them to be i.e. value. which I think is now agreed upon.
You've suggested that picking an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price is LUCK. i.e. Good luck. Which means you believe it can't be maintained, as to maintain good luck forever is surely impossible.
We'll agree to disagree.
You've suggested that picking an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price is LUCK. i.e. Good luck. Which means you believe it can't be maintained, as to maintain good luck forever is surely impossible.
We'll agree to disagree.
Amazing that you people can spend hours discussing strike rate vs value when it's basically the same thing.
yes
It's only possible to have a better than expected strike rate long term because you get value prices.
nope you can have a better than expected strike rate at anytime and not make any money.
look at my example above again. the quicker you get the strike rate the faster you profit
yes
It's only possible to have a better than expected strike rate long term because you get value prices.
nope you can have a better than expected strike rate at anytime and not make any money.
look at my example above again. the quicker you get the strike rate the faster you profit
"you can have a better than expected strike rate at anytime and not make any money."
and this is exactly why it's not a good measure to look at.
and this is exactly why it's not a good measure to look at.
ok you said
Value is not observable (because exact chances of things happening are not knowable)
if thats the case then you need a good strike rate that is better than the mean odds.
so strike is better.
Value is not observable (because exact chances of things happening are not knowable)
if thats the case then you need a good strike rate that is better than the mean odds.
so strike is better.
Be able to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price.
You mean by luck right?
It's impossible to apply skill to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price, as the fact that the market price (the price you struck your bet at) is fair, means you can only expect to break even over time (GP).
You mean by luck right?
It's impossible to apply skill to pick an above-expected number of winners with a fair market price, as the fact that the market price (the price you struck your bet at) is fair, means you can only expect to break even over time (GP).
I'll try an example then.
You place a lot of bets of £1 at 1.1 and a lot of bets of £1 at 20.
What are your mean odds and what strike rate do you need to be profitable?
You place a lot of bets of £1 at 1.1 and a lot of bets of £1 at 20.
What are your mean odds and what strike rate do you need to be profitable?
910 winners from 1000 at £100 stakes will give £100 profit
51 winners from 1000 at £5 stakes will give £100 profit
i think
51 winners from 1000 at £5 stakes will give £100 profit
i think
Lex 10 Apr 12 12:46
I think strike rate must be better than the price you bet at = skill.
value is waiting for a horse that is at a better price than you think it should be, and while waiting you miss out.
============================================================
Lex 10 Apr 12 13:17
I mean that you are waiting for a price that is better than you think its chance of winning is.
eg I think its a 5/2 chance so Im waiting for 3/1
=============================================================
As stated earlier, my "strike-rate" in naps competition is probably one of lowest in leagues.
Reason why I am still in small positive points position is due to SP odds being greater than the ones the high "strike-rate" players in negative points position for year.
Napped a winner at 5-1 SP yesterday for example.....which was 13.06-1 at BF odds well before race time. There was a strong market move mins before the off that ruined the odds for comp. purposes.... So I only get 5 points for win in comp..
I knew the odds were "good value" when backing it....I did not have to wait until odds went higher....as most of horses I nap reduce substantially in odds after I have backed them. Sure......I could try to get higher odds, but I didn't, as not betting professionally.
Every winner I get in competition is at SP odds far lower than the odds backed at........ The +1 point approx. cumulative tally to date for current year does not reflect the extra value obtained from backs ( in example above 8 points of a difference etc)......
I've no idea how those with HIGH strike-rates above me in comp are faring re the odds they back at........Though it is likely the short odds napsters would end up behind me re odds backed at. The top napsters are getting high odds winners regularly....so they will be well ahead of me re odds being backed at and also ahead at SP odds.....Their strike-rate for the top napsters will be well below the short odds napsters....but they will be massively in front of them on odds backed due to to the huge value you they will be grabbing!
I never "know" a horse will win, but I am a fair napster in comp...I DO NOT THINK ABOUT STRIKE RATE WHEN PLACING A BET....IT IS IRRELEVANT, AS I EXPECT I WILL ACHIEVE WINNERS AT GOOD ODDS REGULARY ENOUGH TO MAKE A PROFIT. Horses backed are chosen as I believe they have good chance to win, taking account of factors in race and other horses in race. They generally are at value odds.
Strike-rate is not what you should focus on.....only backing /LAYING at value odds.....If you are any good/have skill/edge, then the winners will come.
I suspect Lex you back horses at short odds end of market.....nothing wrong with that, provided you are skillful enough/ have sufficient edge/s and you will need a HIGH strike-rate at that end of market. The margin of value in odds is likely to be far less at the favourites end of market, compared to horses I tend to select ( eg the nap in comp. yesterday became a CO-FAV at 5-1 SP in last few mins before off........but I backed it well before off at 13.06-1 on BF......You may have backed it too yesterday, and be happy it won at 5-1 SP..... I am happier, because I smugly got the value before the lemmings rushed to back it.....)
Anyway.......value in odds is essential to profitable punting.....strike-rate is what most fun punters are happy with...geting some returns now and then to make them think they are skillful punters.
GL with bets.
I think strike rate must be better than the price you bet at = skill.
value is waiting for a horse that is at a better price than you think it should be, and while waiting you miss out.
============================================================
Lex 10 Apr 12 13:17
I mean that you are waiting for a price that is better than you think its chance of winning is.
eg I think its a 5/2 chance so Im waiting for 3/1
=============================================================
As stated earlier, my "strike-rate" in naps competition is probably one of lowest in leagues.
Reason why I am still in small positive points position is due to SP odds being greater than the ones the high "strike-rate" players in negative points position for year.
Napped a winner at 5-1 SP yesterday for example.....which was 13.06-1 at BF odds well before race time. There was a strong market move mins before the off that ruined the odds for comp. purposes.... So I only get 5 points for win in comp..
I knew the odds were "good value" when backing it....I did not have to wait until odds went higher....as most of horses I nap reduce substantially in odds after I have backed them. Sure......I could try to get higher odds, but I didn't, as not betting professionally.
Every winner I get in competition is at SP odds far lower than the odds backed at........ The +1 point approx. cumulative tally to date for current year does not reflect the extra value obtained from backs ( in example above 8 points of a difference etc)......
I've no idea how those with HIGH strike-rates above me in comp are faring re the odds they back at........Though it is likely the short odds napsters would end up behind me re odds backed at. The top napsters are getting high odds winners regularly....so they will be well ahead of me re odds being backed at and also ahead at SP odds.....Their strike-rate for the top napsters will be well below the short odds napsters....but they will be massively in front of them on odds backed due to to the huge value you they will be grabbing!
I never "know" a horse will win, but I am a fair napster in comp...I DO NOT THINK ABOUT STRIKE RATE WHEN PLACING A BET....IT IS IRRELEVANT, AS I EXPECT I WILL ACHIEVE WINNERS AT GOOD ODDS REGULARY ENOUGH TO MAKE A PROFIT. Horses backed are chosen as I believe they have good chance to win, taking account of factors in race and other horses in race. They generally are at value odds.
Strike-rate is not what you should focus on.....only backing /LAYING at value odds.....If you are any good/have skill/edge, then the winners will come.
I suspect Lex you back horses at short odds end of market.....nothing wrong with that, provided you are skillful enough/ have sufficient edge/s and you will need a HIGH strike-rate at that end of market. The margin of value in odds is likely to be far less at the favourites end of market, compared to horses I tend to select ( eg the nap in comp. yesterday became a CO-FAV at 5-1 SP in last few mins before off........but I backed it well before off at 13.06-1 on BF......You may have backed it too yesterday, and be happy it won at 5-1 SP..... I am happier, because I smugly got the value before the lemmings rushed to back it
.....)Anyway.......value in odds is essential to profitable punting.....strike-rate is what most fun punters are happy with...geting some returns now and then to make them think they are skillful punters.
GL with bets.
Investor says you cannot back more than 50 percent winners at fair odds of evens.
I think there is some slight confusion over language here. I mean fair in terms of what bookies would offer if they weren't skimming a percentage.
Bookies do very well in that they can price up thousands of events at odds of evens and over a long time their average price will work out to be almost spot on. They do NOT however get it right every time. Sometimes their evens is too short, sometimes it is too long, sometimes it's correct, but over time their mistakes average out.
This is where winning punters take advantage. They get bigger odds than they believe they should be getting eg bookies price up at evens, but you think it should be 1.60.
Most of you will say this is called getting value. I agree.
But the reality is, that if I make 100 bets at a bookies price of evens, some of these could be good value, a few bad value and many priced correctly. If more are priced incorrectly than correctly then I can get more than 50 winners at a price of evens and it is NOT luck.
I'm now starting to think we are all talking about the same thing.
Whether it's getting bigger prices than you expect, or backing more than 50 percent winners at evens (because they should be smaller odds than evens). I believe it all amounts to the same thing.
I would suggest it is therefore INCORRECT to say you can't pick more winners than the odds imply, because by saying this you are at the same time saying it is impossible to get value.
In conclusion, I didn't really understand his post at first and even thought it was nonsense, but I'm now inclined to agree with the recent post of Eddie The Eagle who said:
Amazing that you people can spend hours discussing strike rate vs value when it's basically the same thing.
It's only possible to have a better than expected strike rate long term because you get value prices.
This now seems to make perfect sense. We're calling the same thing by two different names.
And remember, it's only my opinion
But it also means you can't say strike rate isn't important, because it's essentially the same thing as getting value. You get more winners because you identify the mistakes in price.
I think there is some slight confusion over language here. I mean fair in terms of what bookies would offer if they weren't skimming a percentage.
Bookies do very well in that they can price up thousands of events at odds of evens and over a long time their average price will work out to be almost spot on. They do NOT however get it right every time. Sometimes their evens is too short, sometimes it is too long, sometimes it's correct, but over time their mistakes average out.
This is where winning punters take advantage. They get bigger odds than they believe they should be getting eg bookies price up at evens, but you think it should be 1.60.
Most of you will say this is called getting value. I agree.
But the reality is, that if I make 100 bets at a bookies price of evens, some of these could be good value, a few bad value and many priced correctly. If more are priced incorrectly than correctly then I can get more than 50 winners at a price of evens and it is NOT luck.
I'm now starting to think we are all talking about the same thing.
Whether it's getting bigger prices than you expect, or backing more than 50 percent winners at evens (because they should be smaller odds than evens). I believe it all amounts to the same thing.
I would suggest it is therefore INCORRECT to say you can't pick more winners than the odds imply, because by saying this you are at the same time saying it is impossible to get value.
In conclusion, I didn't really understand his post at first and even thought it was nonsense, but I'm now inclined to agree with the recent post of Eddie The Eagle who said:
Amazing that you people can spend hours discussing strike rate vs value when it's basically the same thing.
It's only possible to have a better than expected strike rate long term because you get value prices.
This now seems to make perfect sense. We're calling the same thing by two different names.
And remember, it's only my opinion
But it also means you can't say strike rate isn't important, because it's essentially the same thing as getting value. You get more winners because you identify the mistakes in price.
we've gone full circle here
value = better strike rate than mean odds = mean odds better than strike rate
but my point is still that from a practical punting point of view (not maths point of view) strike rate is more important than the price.
value = better strike rate than mean odds = mean odds better than strike rate
but my point is still that from a practical punting point of view (not maths point of view) strike rate is more important than the price.
Very interesting read this thread, although a lot of unnecessary confusion over the last few pages! And h-bomb you've hit the nail on the head, they are precisely the same thing.
Lex, to see that they are the same thing consider this example:
I back 1000 equally staked bets at evens and win 600 of them. You say that I've made profit because my strike rate is higher than 50%? Yes, but my stike rate is above 50% precisely because I have been on average getting value odds, the fact that my strike rate is 60% simply shows that the 'true' odds were on average below evens, so by getting evens I was getting value.
The point is that value odds cause a profitable strike rate so the whole concept of strike rate is really an unnecessary complication!
Lex, to see that they are the same thing consider this example:
I back 1000 equally staked bets at evens and win 600 of them. You say that I've made profit because my strike rate is higher than 50%? Yes, but my stike rate is above 50% precisely because I have been on average getting value odds, the fact that my strike rate is 60% simply shows that the 'true' odds were on average below evens, so by getting evens I was getting value.
The point is that value odds cause a profitable strike rate so the whole concept of strike rate is really an unnecessary complication!
namwob,
This is something I'm learning as I go.
And I'm interested, does this mean I should be backing every selection I believe is value, even if I don't expect it to win? Does this lead to greater profits?
It kind of goes against a person's instincts to back things they don't strongly believe will win, but is that the best way to bet?
This is something I'm learning as I go.
And I'm interested, does this mean I should be backing every selection I believe is value, even if I don't expect it to win? Does this lead to greater profits?
It kind of goes against a person's instincts to back things they don't strongly believe will win, but is that the best way to bet?
Also, apologies to those who already understood all that's been discussed.
It wasn't even a subject I meant to get into.
But I feel that nobody has really explained it in a very clear way prior to this, Hopefully this will help a few people, besides me.
It wasn't even a subject I meant to get into.
But I feel that nobody has really explained it in a very clear way prior to this, Hopefully this will help a few people, besides me.
h-bomb,
If you're still maintaining the edge that you had at the start of this thread, I'm not sure you should be taking advice from me on what leads to greater profits!
But yes, any selection that is value, no matter how unlikely, should lead to greater profit in the long run. However sadly it isn't that simple. Long shots, even if they are value, introduce a greater variance into your profits. Put simply you should expect more fluctuations in your profit. That's why kelly staking divides by the odds received, suggesting smaller stakes on unlikely events.
That wouldn't be my biggest concern though. Although the sample size is still too small to be sure, it would seem you have a knack for identifying value bets around evens. Now, as the incredulous replies from some others suggest, that's no small talent! BUT I would say that it's dangerous to assume that you can also do the same for more extreme odds. The reality is that the odds offered on most selections are representative of their respective probabilities, and value bets (on betfair at least) are few and far between. It's very easy to price things up and convince yourself you've found value when in fact you've just not weighed up the different factors correctly, which is what a lot of self proclaimed 'pros' do. You seem to somehow be avoiding this pitfall on your evens shots so I would stick with them if I were you!
If you're still maintaining the edge that you had at the start of this thread, I'm not sure you should be taking advice from me on what leads to greater profits!
But yes, any selection that is value, no matter how unlikely, should lead to greater profit in the long run. However sadly it isn't that simple. Long shots, even if they are value, introduce a greater variance into your profits. Put simply you should expect more fluctuations in your profit. That's why kelly staking divides by the odds received, suggesting smaller stakes on unlikely events.
That wouldn't be my biggest concern though. Although the sample size is still too small to be sure, it would seem you have a knack for identifying value bets around evens. Now, as the incredulous replies from some others suggest, that's no small talent! BUT I would say that it's dangerous to assume that you can also do the same for more extreme odds. The reality is that the odds offered on most selections are representative of their respective probabilities, and value bets (on betfair at least) are few and far between. It's very easy to price things up and convince yourself you've found value when in fact you've just not weighed up the different factors correctly, which is what a lot of self proclaimed 'pros' do. You seem to somehow be avoiding this pitfall on your evens shots so I would stick with them if I were you!
namwob22000
I have said that they are the same thing. Again, that is not my point. Strike rate is better for the punter as value odds are very hard to determine until after the result. Where as value strike rate is not (see my examples)
I have said that they are the same thing. Again, that is not my point. Strike rate is better for the punter as value odds are very hard to determine until after the result. Where as value strike rate is not (see my examples)
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