updated figs:

10% reduction - 86%
20% reduction - 76%
30% reduction - 67%
40% reduction - 56%

these are closer to what I was expecting, as if only 74% drop hit 10% reduction then I'd be looking at a different approach.

The stats given do not help to work that out, they just tell you the size of the task.

If a 10% reduction happens 86% of the time, therefore you would lose 14% of the time (1 in 7).

If the price difference between bet and lay is 10% (inc. charges) you will have to win 90% of the time (1 in 10).

Roughly, where the stats would expect 3 losses, you need to only have 2.

Here is the first set of results from this evening and a few from yesterday afternoon.

Thoughts ???

Horse        BSP Win BSP Place    I/R Lowest Odds    Runners     Result
Thats the Deal     7.27    3.15        Won            4        Won
Golden Firebird    3.70    1.45        3.60            12        Fell   
Sussex Sunset    7.62    2.40        2.60            15        Unplaced
Basford Bob    4.40    1.66        2.72            8        3rd
Cantlow            4.20    2.17            4.20            14        Unplaced
General Tufto    9.80    2.64        8.80            5        Unplaced
Gold Platinum    8.51    2.74        4.80            13        Unplaced
The Catenian    4.90    1.99        2.24            13        3rd
Perfect Fantasy    4.07    2.04        Won            7        Won
Estypolish dim    5.26    2.34        Won            13        Won
Mataleb            8.26    3.43        4.0            7        Unplaced
Russian Ice    10.5    3.25        1.51            13        2nd

just back em to win and leave it at that