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General Betting
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I'm doing extremely well percentage wise on Betfair (eg i'm winning approximately 88% of the time).
This got me to thinking about maximising my profit against losses though. I've heard of the Kelly thing but having masses of formulas chucked at me just hurts my face. I was wondering if anyone can help out with a simple formula (or even a real life example would be great) bearing in mind that i'm a draw layer who usually ends up taking the profit and greening as soon as it is available.
Something like:
You win 85% of the time (con estimate) and usually win X amount average. Average liability is X amount and you usually lay between X and X odds.
Any help for a maths retard? Thanks in advance, and also thanks in advance for the snide comments and 'forumisms' i'll no doubt receive :)
This got me to thinking about maximising my profit against losses though. I've heard of the Kelly thing but having masses of formulas chucked at me just hurts my face. I was wondering if anyone can help out with a simple formula (or even a real life example would be great) bearing in mind that i'm a draw layer who usually ends up taking the profit and greening as soon as it is available.
Something like:
You win 85% of the time (con estimate) and usually win X amount average. Average liability is X amount and you usually lay between X and X odds.
Any help for a maths retard? Thanks in advance, and also thanks in advance for the snide comments and 'forumisms' i'll no doubt receive :)
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Here is one aspect to think about:
There are three categories of plays/positions. a) Going in with the intention of backing (or laying) an outcome. b) Going in with the intention of trading a position and having a profit or loss before the event is finish c) Taking several positions on an event with the intention of hedging by trading or closing as the event progresses. When you say "88%", I'm assuming that all your a,b and c plays are rolled into this. Something I have been working on is my approaches/staking is completely different for each of the above. I also have broken this down further (i.e. for "a", I have different approaches for backing and laying (though laying is simply 'backing the field'). i.e. a staking that seems to work for me and is giving a better ROI than LSP is using the reverse (repeat - reverse) Labouchere for BACKING. Note: I tend to only to have around 5 backs a week but, as I said, this works for me. |
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Further to what I wrote:
You need to look at your categories of betting then develop a staking 'strategy' from there. |
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It's only ever category B for me. The only time this changes is if:
A) I think it'll be an end-to-end goalfest whereby i might not have time to trade out, i'll back both teams in the hope of backing a draw later as security, i feel this is best because of the risk involved. or B) If i genuinely feel it won't be a draw and the odds are skewered in someone's favour unfairly or unrealistically then i'll just leave it to play out, but this is rare. Thanks for the advice but unfortunately it doesn't help me figure out what i need to do to come up with some ballpark figures. I truly am terrible with maths. |
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the 88% of time that you win, you green up
the 12% of time that you lose, do you red up? |
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Yeah but only for a fraction of the liability.
For example on a tenner, my average win would be about £3. My average loss would be about £8. |
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Hello there pipunch.
If you know your average loss and win, then i would say work out what percentage of your bank you want your average loss to be, and then just base your stake on that. e.g. if you had a bank of £100 and you wanted to risk 8% of your bank (remember this is just a hypothetical example) then you would stake £10. |