General Betting
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14 Feb 12
22:56
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Date Joined:
19 Sep 08
I am have been working on pre event trading using purely graphs with no knowledge of the runners, im from the sort of background.
I will be going live with this on saturday (if i get the time) and will be posting up my resuklts. Paper trading they have been positive but actually betting and getting matched may be a different story!!
Anyone else trade using purely graphs?
I will be going live with this on saturday (if i get the time) and will be posting up my resuklts. Paper trading they have been positive but actually betting and getting matched may be a different story!!
Anyone else trade using purely graphs?
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Replies: 24
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No but I have read a bit about it and its something i've always wanted to try .All my trading is pre-event trading so I am interested in that too as most do in-play trading.
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Trading using graphs:
a) are you using API software? The graphs at betfair are delayed. b) As someone that traded on the nasdaq for several years, I can tell you that the graphs at betfair are for reference only and though they can be used to 'indicate' movement, they don't really show a clear definition. c) d) and e) also negatives on relying on graphs but will let you discover that on your own |
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+ a graph doesn't tell you that the jockey has just been thrown off the beast in question who is now bucking like a bronco and his price is heading only one way
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thanks for the replies
to answer a few of the questions raised (ones that I have also thought about before giving this a go) a. I will be using a 3rd party software to utilise the different types of graphs available ... i think these are near enough real time. b. I will be trading some bigger trends rather than 1 tick scalping so I can afford to get 60% wrong if i get a good return on the other 40% c,d,e) I presume you are refering to some pother aspects like, commissions, liquidity, premium charge (i hope!!), disciplne, having clearly defined entry and exit points and other areas i amy have overlooked. I have looked into these aspects and i have a clear exit strategy and clear exit strategy, it is on the chart and cannot be missed, unless i over ride it .... which through suffering previous losses as a result i will not be doing. Im not trying to make £100,000 a year or anyhting liek that, £250 bank and im ahppy to make an average of £50 a day over the year ... wishful thinking i know |
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You want to make 20% per day??
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not 20% a day, 1% to 2% would be nice, 5% would be superb
I would hope with £1000 bank i could make £50, the problem is getting up to £1000 and getting matched in the markets i will be involved in. My testing has been most successful on the greyhounds I will make about £5 - £10 on £250 |
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I also know nothing about the runners/teams involved and trade completely based on market movements. It took a very long time and a lot of calibration to get a model that makes around 1% per day. Although recent lack of liquidity in horse races means returns have been a bit thin recently.
Building up a smallish bank and discovering the problems early on is a good strategy. If you post your results up it would be interesting to see how many markets you trade and how many bets per market as well as the profit/loss. It can be useful to watch the trend and see whether you should be looking for more markets to trade in, finding more opportunities in the markets you do trade or just generally trying to lose less when things turn against you. |
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I will post up the results, i work 8 to 6pm most week days so dont get mcuh of a chance to trade other than some rapid fire greyhound markets and sketchy US Racing. Will try to get stuck in on saturdays though.
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I managed to slip in 3 US races tonight.... Like watching paint dry, no action at all.
So I deposited £50. ..... Race 1: +0.06p ....... I got jittery on this one and decided to come out, a little to early Race 2: +0.64p ... A little better this one for a nice profit on 1 trade Race 3: +0.32p .... Another profit, was 85p from the first trade but the second was a loser I sat out the next 2 races as I altered the time horizon on my graphs and I wanted to see the impact, looks positive for removing the small swings and trading the larger moves I then went and had a dabble on the greyhounds .... Traded 3 races without getting matched once. It seemed like the graph was lagging by 1 or 2 ticks .... Which makes a big difference in the greyhound Market Will try to get on tomorrow for a bit and a little bit on saturday |
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U.S racing is 'deadly' since (a) the liquidity does not come till just before the race band (b) the money comes from all directions and is 'influenced' by a multitude of factors.
I've actually got a 'notebook' with headings of each track. i.e., there is a course where money comes literally in the last few seconds and can whack the odds inwards by several ticks. Old skool "the money is down" and I will follow (or, if I am laying one or two of the other horses on the card, will increase my exposure). |
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Two trades today before I went off to the cinema.
+0.36p and then +2.31 What I think is that backing first is the way to go as you obviously get to leverage your cash a lot more. No chance to trade for me at the weekend so I will be back on it next week although I will pop in now and again |
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ffs...are you for real...
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Good start Wooly, keep at it.
2% up on day 1, 5% up on day 2. It looks like only one trade was losing so far. You might want to record (for your own benefit if you don't want to post) is the amount at risk. A big part of collecting lots of stats on your early trading at small amounts is convincing yourself that you're not just finding a convoluted way of laying outsiders. |
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where it will all go wrong is the win small, win small, win small, lose big scenario. How much are you risking in winning these pennies?
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cranked it up a level over the last few days to make a repsepctable profit for the knockers.
20-Feb-2012 21:50 Period: Download to Spreadsheet ? (relates to event settlement date) (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Greyhound Racing: £65.90 | Horse Racing: £83.55 Total P&L: £149.45 |
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Don't worry about the knockers. Most knockers have nipples on the top
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just make sure you post when you lose too
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just make sure you post when you lose too
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Thieves
As your the sort of bloke that seems to revel in others misfortune I will definitely post up my inevitable losing day ... In bold just for you. It might give you the chance to increase your post count to nearly 6750 in just one year! I havent met you but my first impression is that you are a sad sad individual. To those that are actually interested, there may be nobody as I realise my betting is very very insignificant and unimportant to 99.99% of the people in the world, i increased my profits by sticking rigidly to my entry and exit points and using a trailing stop loss. Im more concerned with survival than profits as I think they will shine through if I can cut out the losing trades. |
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TheVis ...... not Thieves ... funny predicitve text there
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I've been here since month one - BF had to rename my account last year due to security issues - hence what might seem a high post count. Anyway, please do post your losses when they happen as they will happen. It will make a refreshing change of story from the everybody wins on betfair norm.
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vis, my apologies.
 todays betting, evening greyhounds 21-Feb-2012 21:55 Period: Download to Spreadsheet ? (relates to event settlement date) (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Greyhound Racing: £57.22 Total P&L: £57.22 |
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just couldnt get it right today :(
Greyhound Racing: -£5.04 | Horse Racing: £1.55 Total P&L: -£3.49 |
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What happened today? Profits wiped out or just not made.
How many markets are you trading each day and how many trades? |