Forums

General Betting

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
ILoveLateGoals
30 Jan 12 14:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 Jan 12
| Topic/replies: 391 | Blogger: ILoveLateGoals's blog
This system will only use teams that so far this season (roughly halfway through) have had a 45% or better sucess rate of landing overs in home and 45% sucess rate in away games.

I will only be taking odds of 2.50 or above so they will of course all be done inplay.   I will be looking for each team to make me £20 profit and once I have achieved £20 profit from each team on the list they will be crossed off the list.  I will martingale to make £20 profit until achieved.

I am only using barclays premier league and the scottish premier league.  in the scottish premier league I am lowering the strikerate to 40%


so here is the list

Premiership home team


Chelsea (82%)
Man City (82%)
Blackburn (82%)
Wolves (82%)
Man Utd (73%)
Bolton (64%)
Fulham (64%)
Newcastle (64%)
Norwich (55%)
Stoke (55%)
Wigan (45%)
QPR (45%)
Tottenham (45%)
Arsenal (45%)
Sunderland (45%)
West Brom (45%)

16 teams in total.  If I make £20 from each team that is £320 profit.


Premiership away teams


Bolton (91%)
Arsenal (82%)
Tottenham (73%)
Wigan (73%)
West Brom (73%)
Blackburn (64%)
Man City (64%)
Norwich (64%)
Stoke (55%)
Wolves (55%)
AVilla (55%)
Newcastle (55%)
Chelsea (45%)
Sunderland (45%)
Man Utd (45%)
QPR (45%)
Swansea (45%)


17 teams in total. If I make £20 profit from each team that is £340



Scots prem home teams


Dunfermline (82%)
Kilmarnock (58%)
Celtic (58%)
Aberdeen (54%)
Motherwell (50%)
St Mirren (50%)
Rangers (46%)
St Johnstone (42%)
Inverness (42%)
Hibs (42%)
Hearts (42%)

11 teams in total.  If I make £20 profit from each team will total £220



Scots prem away teams



Dundee Utd (75%)
Inverness (67%)
Dunfermline (62%)
Hibs (58%)
Motherwell (58%)
St Johnstone (58%)
Aberdeen (50%)
St Mirren (46%)
Rangers (42%)


9 teams in total.  If I make £20 profit from each team the total is £180


If I make my £20 from every team before the end of the season then the total will be £1060.  take off commish looking at £1000
Pause • Switch to Standard View Over 2.5 goals system
Show More
Loading...
Report ILoveLateGoals • January 30, 2012 2:47 PM GMT
No games today but plenty tomorrow.

Tuesdays home team games


Tottenham vs Wigan
Wolves vs Liverpool
Man Utd vs Stoke


Tuesdays away team games


Swansea vs Chelsea
Tottenham vs Wigan
Everton vs Man City
Man Utd vs Stoke



As you can see there is a couple of games that are on both the home and away list.  Here I will double stake to win £20 from the home team and £20 from the away team.
Report tobermory • January 30, 2012 4:41 PM GMT
Of course the % of overs for those teams will have been lower where the price has reached 2.50
Report kenilworth • January 30, 2012 5:32 PM GMT
It seems ManU v Stoke is the nap (qualifying in both groups)
For what it's worth, this is not a good time of the season to be
backing 'overs' although that may reflect in the market.GL.
Report ILoveLateGoals • January 31, 2012 4:35 PM GMT
Just a note that I wont be giving up if a goal is scored before I get matched @ 2.50.  I will back overs anytime if it reaches 2.50+ and that includs if there has benn 1 or 2 goals scored.
Report roadrunner46 • January 31, 2012 4:44 PM GMT
good idea crossing teams of the list as you win.
Report ILoveLateGoals • January 31, 2012 8:01 PM GMT
Been matched in Swansea/Chelsea match @ 2.58
Report ILoveLateGoals • January 31, 2012 8:04 PM GMT
Been matched in Wolves/Liverppol match @ 2.50
Report ILoveLateGoals • January 31, 2012 8:16 PM GMT
Been matched in Everton/MCity match @ 2.56
Report ILoveLateGoals • January 31, 2012 8:26 PM GMT
Been matched in Man Utd/Stoke match @ 2.54
Report ILoveLateGoals • January 31, 2012 9:18 PM GMT
No joy with Spurs/Wigan.  It never reached 2.50 inplay with 2.20 the highest it drifted too.  3-0 now so will need to wait for Spurs next home game and Wigans away
Report kenilworth • January 31, 2012 10:23 PM GMT
Any particular reason for the price being 2.50 ?
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 1, 2012 1:50 PM GMT
I cant believe the Swansea and Man Utd games stayed unders the amount of chances in both games.  Man Utd would of been a good one to land as I could of crossed 2 teams off in one go.

Only winner was Liverpool away so managed to cross one off the list at least.


Wednesdays home team games


Blackburn vs Newcastle
Bolton vs Arsenal
Sunderland vs Norwich
Fulham vs West Brom


Wednesdays away team games


A Villa vs QPR
Blackburn vs Newcastle
Bolton vs Arsenal
Sunderland vs Norwich
Fulham vs West Brom


As you can see 4 of tonights 5 games are on both the home and away list so double stakes on these 4 and hopefully cross off 2 winners.
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 1, 2012 1:59 PM GMT
Instead of backing overs @ 2.50 I am going to lay unders @ 1.66 because it is easier to get matched for obvious reasons.  Also alot easier to lay for a stake that having to calculate how much stake I need for backing.



Revised list


Premiership home team


Chelsea (82%)
Man City (82%)
Blackburn (82%)
Wolves (82%)  £20 WON
Man Utd (73%)  (-£12.99)
Bolton (64%)
Fulham (64%)
Newcastle (64%)
Norwich (55%)
Stoke (55%)
Wigan (45%)
QPR (45%)
Tottenham (45%)
Arsenal (45%)
Sunderland (45%)
West Brom (45%)



Premiership away teams


Bolton (91%)
Arsenal (82%)
Tottenham (73%)
Wigan (73%)
West Brom (73%)
Blackburn (64%)
Man City (64%)  (-£12.82)
Norwich (64%)
Stoke (55%)   (-£12.99)
Wolves (55%)
AVilla (55%)
Newcastle (55%)
Chelsea (45%)  (-£12.66)
Sunderland (45%)
Man Utd (45%)
QPR (45%)
Swansea (45%)
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 1, 2012 7:57 PM GMT
Been matched in Villa game @ 1.65
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 1, 2012 8:03 PM GMT
Laying unders that is
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 1, 2012 8:13 PM GMT
About 2 mins away from getting matched in the Blackburn and now there a goal Sad
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 1, 2012 8:20 PM GMT
Been matched in Fulham game @ 1.65
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 1, 2012 8:21 PM GMT
oh piss off.  about 2 mins away again in the Sunderland match and theres a goal Sad
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 1, 2012 8:32 PM GMT
Been matched in Bolton game @ 1.66
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 1, 2012 8:33 PM GMT
Villa/QPR game won before halftime Grin
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 1, 2012 9:25 PM GMT
Matched in Blackburn game @ 1.65
Report kenilworth • February 2, 2012 9:22 AM GMT
Pertinent points (a) Why would laying 'unders' be easier to match than 'backing overs' ?
(b) Why 2.50/1.66 (c) Losing bets will ALWAYS get matched but 'winning bets' WON'T.
Any thoughts ?
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 11:50 AM GMT
Cant believe out of all the bets matched there was only 2 winners.  Blackburn absolutly destroyed Newcastle and battered them for 90 mins.  How on earth they failed to score is a mystery Plain

Bolton/Arsenal could of ended 4-4 but ended 0-0 Shocked




Revised list


Premiership home team


Chelsea (82%)
Man City (82%)
Blackburn (82%)  (-£13.00)
Wolves (82%)  £20 WON
Man Utd (73%)  (-£12.99)
Bolton (64%)  (-£13.20)
Fulham (64%)  (-£13.00)
Newcastle (64%)
Norwich (55%)
Stoke (55%)
Wigan (45%)
QPR (45%)
Tottenham (45%)
Arsenal (45%)
Sunderland (45%)
West Brom (45%)



Premiership away teams


Bolton (91%)
Arsenal (82%)  (-£13.20)
Tottenham (73%)
Wigan (73%)
West Brom (73%) (-£13.00)
Blackburn (64%)
Man City (64%)  (-£12.82)
Norwich (64%)
Stoke (55%)   (-£12.99)
Wolves (55%)
AVilla (55%)
Newcastle (55%)  (-£13.00)
Chelsea (45%)  (-£12.66)
Sunderland (45%)
Man Utd (45%)
QPR (45%)   £20 WON
Swansea (45%)
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 11:56 AM GMT
Saturdays home team games


Arsenal vs Blackburn
Norwich vs Bolton
QPR vs Wolves
Stoke vs Sunderland
West Brom vs Swansea
Wigan vs Everton
MCity vs Fulham


Saturdays away team games


Arsenal vs Blackburn
Norwich vs Bolton
QPR vs Wolves
Stoke vs Sunderland
West Brom vs Swansea
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 1:10 PM GMT
I wasn't going to use cup games but as there is no SPL this weekend I will use cup games.

Been matched laying unders in ICT game @ 1.50
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 2:52 PM GMT

(a) Why would laying 'unders' be easier to match than 'backing overs' ?


are you really asking me why its easier to get matched laying unders than backing overs  Confused Shocked

Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 3:14 PM GMT
Been matched in West Brom game @ 1.65
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 3:14 PM GMT
Been matched in Wigan game @ 1.66
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 3:15 PM GMT
Been matched in Stoke game @ 1.66
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 3:16 PM GMT
Been matched in QPR game @ 1.65
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 3:25 PM GMT
Been matched in Norwich game @ 1.65


Been matched in all 3pm KO's now in premiership.  Come on the goals!
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 7:54 PM GMT
Bit frustrating not to have more teams marked off the list but another 4 are gone today.  How on earth Norwich only had 2 goals is a mystery.


Revised List



Premiership home team


Chelsea (82%)
Man City (82%)
Blackburn (82%)  (-£13.00)
Wolves (82%)  £20 WON
Man Utd (73%)  (-£12.99)
Bolton (64%)  (-£13.20)
Fulham (64%)  (-£13.00)
Newcastle (64%)
Norwich (55%)  (-£13.00)
Stoke (55%)  (-£13.20)
Wigan (45%) (-£13.20)
QPR (45%)  £20 WON
Tottenham (45%)
Arsenal (45%)
Sunderland (45%)  (-£13.20)
West Brom (45%)  £20 WON



Premiership away teams


Bolton (91%)  (-£13.00)
Arsenal (82%)  (-£13.20)
Tottenham (73%)
Wigan (73%)
West Brom (73%) (-£13.00)
Blackburn (64%)
Man City (64%)  (-£12.82)
Norwich (64%)
Stoke (55%)   (-£12.99)
Wolves (55%)  £20 WON
AVilla (55%)
Newcastle (55%)  (-£13.00)
Chelsea (45%)  (-£12.66)
Sunderland (45%)
Man Utd (45%)
QPR (45%)   £20 WON
Swansea (45%) £20 WON




Scots prem home teams


Dunfermline (82%)
Kilmarnock (58%)
Celtic (58%)
Aberdeen (54%)
Motherwell (50%)
St Mirren (50%)
Rangers (46%)
St Johnstone (42%)
Inverness (42%)  [color=red](-£10.00)[/color
Hibs (42%)
Hearts (42%)
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 4, 2012 7:58 PM GMT
Sundays premiership home team games


Newcastle vs A Villa
Chelsea vs Man Utd



Sundays premiership away team games



Newcastle vs A Villa
Chelsea vs Man Utd



I will also do the scottish cup game between Rangers and Dundee Utd
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 5, 2012 2:17 PM GMT
Matched in newcastle game @ 1.65
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 5, 2012 3:32 PM GMT
Thats another 2 crossed off the list and another.  Hopefully land it in the next match aswell
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 5, 2012 4:53 PM GMT
Matched Chelsea game @ 1.65
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 5, 2012 6:41 PM GMT
Another winner.  2 wins out of 2 today and 4 teams crossed off the list Grin


Revised List



Revised List



Premiership home team


Chelsea (82%)  £20 WON
Man City (82%)
Blackburn (82%)  (-£13.00)
Wolves (82%)  £20 WON
Man Utd (73%)  (-£12.99)
Bolton (64%)  (-£13.20)
Fulham (64%)  (-£13.00)
Newcastle (64%) £20 WON
Norwich (55%)  (-£13.00)
Stoke (55%)  (-£13.20)
Wigan (45%) (-£13.20)
QPR (45%)  £20 WON
Tottenham (45%)
Arsenal (45%)
Sunderland (45%)  (-£13.20)
West Brom (45%)  £20 WON



Premiership away teams


Bolton (91%)  (-£13.00)
Arsenal (82%)  (-£13.20)
Tottenham (73%)
Wigan (73%)
West Brom (73%) (-£13.00)
Blackburn (64%)
Man City (64%)  (-£12.82)
Norwich (64%)
Stoke (55%)   (-£12.99)
Wolves (55%) £20 WON
AVilla (55%)  £20 WON
Newcastle (55%)  (-£13.00)
Chelsea (45%)  (-£12.66)
Sunderland (45%)
Man Utd (45%)  £20 WON
QPR (45%)   £20 WON
Swansea (45%) £20 WON




Scots prem home teams


Dunfermline (82%)
Kilmarnock (58%)
Celtic (58%)
Aberdeen (54%)
Motherwell (50%)
St Mirren (50%)
Rangers (46%)
St Johnstone (42%)
Inverness (42%)  (-£10.00)
Hibs (42%)
Hearts (42%)
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 5, 2012 6:43 PM GMT
No home team match tomorrow but tottenham are away so will obviously be doing the MNF game
Report clouded leopard • February 5, 2012 9:35 PM GMT
and why would you scratch one off the list when it has won ?

and which pub were you in at 3am when you thought up this system ?
Report catflmasppo • February 5, 2012 10:00 PM GMT
The point at which you bet is entirely arbitrary ?
Report I.quit.my.country • February 7, 2012 1:00 AM GMT
Laugh wtf
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 11:55 AM GMT
back into this today with plenty of games to keep an eye on inplay.

Missed the midweek Liverpool game due to working backshift.
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 1:09 PM GMT
Matched in Man Utd game @ 1.59.

Cant see this landing tbh.  0-0/1-1/0-1
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 3:31 PM GMT
£20 Won on Man Utd at home now.  Another off the list.
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 3:38 PM GMT
Matched in following games....

Bolton/Wigan @ 1.61
Fulham/Stoke @ 1.65
Sunderland/Arsenal @ 1.66
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 4:14 PM GMT
Matched Chelsea game @ 1.60
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 4:15 PM GMT
Backed overs in Celtic game @ 2.62
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 4:37 PM GMT
won in bolton game

Need 1 more in Sunderland, Everton & Fulham games
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 4:39 PM GMT
won in Fulham game Grin
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 4:53 PM GMT
Loads of teams crossed off the list today.


Why anyone does overs pre KO is baffling Confused   The odds you get inplay is crazy
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 5:17 PM GMT
Revised List



Premiership home team


Chelsea (82%)  £20 WON
Man City (82%)
Blackburn (82%)  (-£13.00)
Wolves (82%)  £20 WON
Man Utd (73%) £20 WON
Bolton (64%)  £20 WON
Fulham (64%)  £20 WON
Newcastle (64%) £20 WON
Norwich (55%)  (-£13.00)
Stoke (55%)  (-£13.20)
Wigan (45%) (-£13.20)
QPR (45%) £20 WON
Tottenham (45%)
Arsenal (45%)
Sunderland (45%) £20 WON
West Brom (45%)  £20 WON



Premiership away teams


Bolton (91%)  (-£13.00)
Arsenal (82%) £20 WON
Tottenham (73%)
Wigan (73%)  £20 WON
West Brom (73%) (-£13.00)
Blackburn (64%)
Man City (64%)  (-£12.82)
Norwich (64%)  £20 WON
Stoke (55%)  £20 WON
Wolves (55%) £20 WON
AVilla (55%)  £20 WON
Newcastle (55%)  (-£13.00)
Chelsea (45%)  (-£32.78)
Sunderland (45%)
Man Utd (45%) £20 WON
QPR (45%)  £20 WON
Swansea (45%) £20 WON




Scots prem home teams


Dunfermline (82%)
Kilmarnock (58%)
Celtic (58%)  (-£12.34)
Aberdeen (54%)
Motherwell (50%)
St Mirren (50%)
Rangers (46%)
St Johnstone (42%)
Inverness (42%)  (-£10.00)
Hibs (42%)
Hearts (42%)



Scots prem away teams


Dundee Utd (75%)
Inverness (67%)
Dunfermline (62%)
Hibs (58%)
Motherwell (58%)
St Johnstone (58%)
Aberdeen (50%)
St Mirren (46%)
Rangers (42%)
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 5:19 PM GMT
Currently +£200.66 so moving along nicely
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 11, 2012 5:20 PM GMT
Will keep an eye on Spurs/Newcastle and hopefully get on inplay and end with a winner to cross another 2 off the list
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 12, 2012 2:40 PM GMT
Marched Wolves game @ 1.65
Report ILoveLateGoals • February 12, 2012 3:20 PM GMT
That is West Brom now crossed off the away list Happy

Man City away is next on the agenda so hopefully get on inplay
Report disco dennis • February 29, 2012 2:29 PM GMT
ttt
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com