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Hi,
sorry if this has been discussed before (couldn't find it).
If u had a bunch of futures and wanted to hedge, would u include huge dogs too. i get that a simple ratio would be possible but i think that i would only want to breakeven for anything over 50.00 and maybe only a half for anything over 100.
i guess it is sport specific, but has any1 done any study of this or have similar filters that they use. sorry if this is dumb but i guess that on the whole 100.00 dogs have no value and r there for the fans or the long-shot seekers- am i wrong?
any help or pointers for more research r very much appreciated
thanks
sorry if this has been discussed before (couldn't find it).
If u had a bunch of futures and wanted to hedge, would u include huge dogs too. i get that a simple ratio would be possible but i think that i would only want to breakeven for anything over 50.00 and maybe only a half for anything over 100.
i guess it is sport specific, but has any1 done any study of this or have similar filters that they use. sorry if this is dumb but i guess that on the whole 100.00 dogs have no value and r there for the fans or the long-shot seekers- am i wrong?
any help or pointers for more research r very much appreciated
thanks
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Thought this was gonna be about Digby The Biggest Dog In The World.
You are never going to win by just backing selections above or below a particular price in any market. Some of the 50+ dogs will be value some won't , most will be about right. You can only really put in enough study to identify the ones that are too high a price.
Wether you are good enough to spot them or just being lucky/unlucky will take a long time to tell as backing at those odds luck is a big factor for a long time . Might not get a true reflection of wether you are finding value in less than 3,000 bets!
You are never going to win by just backing selections above or below a particular price in any market. Some of the 50+ dogs will be value some won't , most will be about right. You can only really put in enough study to identify the ones that are too high a price.
Wether you are good enough to spot them or just being lucky/unlucky will take a long time to tell as backing at those odds luck is a big factor for a long time . Might not get a true reflection of wether you are finding value in less than 3,000 bets!
thanks for ur replies :)
backing angola @ >300 "feels" like throwing money away. i get that "feels" is probably the dumbest thing that i've said so far....
much to learn
backing angola @ >300 "feels" like throwing money away. i get that "feels" is probably the dumbest thing that i've said so far....
much to learn
i have found a kelly solution for my problem.
most of the time poop just festers but sometimes it turns into fertiliser...
most of the time poop just festers but sometimes it turns into fertiliser...
you can only green up if the prices come back down after backing. these longer dogs tend to go out rather than in so you can guess what you need to do in this situation.
thanks...
i guess i sort of blindly stumbled on a sort of dumbed down reverse kelly way of deciding how much to hedge.
it is only because my futures r worth more that it is possible, i'm not trying to lay every >350 team, just thought there might be a more efficient way of gambling on the greening up....
i guess i sort of blindly stumbled on a sort of dumbed down reverse kelly way of deciding how much to hedge.
it is only because my futures r worth more that it is possible, i'm not trying to lay every >350 team, just thought there might be a more efficient way of gambling on the greening up....
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