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General Betting
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Hi, first post here so hope this isn't a stupid question.
With four teams left, I currently have the following position on the Super Bowl (all green).
Giants £560.65 (odds 4.6)
Ravens £52.40 (odds 8.0)
49ers £54.18 (odds 4.4)
Patriots £78.90 (odds 2.26)
Patriots host the Ravens and look good to win.
49ers host Giants and this one looks tougher to call.
Question is, what's the best way to make my book more balanced? Is this even possible?
Thanks in advance
With four teams left, I currently have the following position on the Super Bowl (all green).
Giants £560.65 (odds 4.6)
Ravens £52.40 (odds 8.0)
49ers £54.18 (odds 4.4)
Patriots £78.90 (odds 2.26)
Patriots host the Ravens and look good to win.
49ers host Giants and this one looks tougher to call.
Question is, what's the best way to make my book more balanced? Is this even possible?
Thanks in advance
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Replies: 18
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Good post.
Let`s see what the answers will be. |
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These are back of a **** packet calculations but if you are looking to make the book roughly balanced then
Lay the Patriots for £11 @ 2.26 Lay the Giants for £111 @4.6 Provided both bets are matched you will win approx £175 on each selection. |
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f a g packet
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Do you want the same money for all outcomes or a balanced liability based on liklihood?
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On the Superbowl Market, go to 'more options' (which is above the pink lay box)
Then tick these 2 # Display P&L net of commission # Display "what if" figure Once thats done you can input any number of back and lay bets (without clicking 'place bet' at the bottom or confirming!) and the screen will show you exactly what each bet will do to your red and green figures for each team. When you are happy with the figures on each team you just click place bets and confirm. Just looking at it myself and if you want to keep the biggest win on Giants then a lay of them @4.7 with backers stake £72 would leave you +£300 green on them and +£120 on the other 3, or as Gin says you could even it out between the 4 and settle for less on Giants. |
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All games are elimination. Best to incorporate lays that allow one of two results:
(a) your team loses and your lay recoups a percentage of your book on them. or (b) your team wins AND your lay wins. You have a few days to tinker with the math but, example: Giant v Baltimore: If you lay the giants -7.5 and they only win by 7 (or less), your lay is successful and you keep your lay and your super bowl market. If they lose, you make back a portion of your 560.00 As well, it would be good to position low odds in-running bets to give up some but benefit if there is a last minute swing in the odds. Same tinker can be done with any of the other bets but your biggest bank is the Giants. Bear in mind: You are in the drivers seat. Don't worry about having all the teams square. Just decide how much you want to give up on the game markets and enjoy. As well, once this weekend is over, balance it out a bit between the two teams but avoid trading heavily on the super bowl and killing all your green. Good luck |
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Thanks for the replies everyone.
One other factor to consider is that the Ravens v Patriots game is on first on Sunday. Would it be worth it to wait until that game has finished? |
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philsafc....Play the Ravens / Patriots and balance those two.
Fine tune this to your like but what I would do: - lay NE for £20 -7.5 - If they win by a 1 to 7 points, they are worth £98 in the bank - If they win by 8 or more, they are worth £58 in the bank - If they lose the game, Ravens are worth £72 in the bank. or you might lay NE/NE in half time/full-time for £20.00 at 1.70 which could also have a win/win scenario for ranging from £54 to £98.00 NYG/SF, would need to decide how much you want to bank. If you think NYG can hold or lead first quarter, an in-running play on match odds to shift some of your £560 would be the play. You might look at laying NYG in the HT/FT market. i.e. if you lay NYG/NYG £100 @ 4.0 (market still forming): a) if they win AND your lay loses, NYG are worth £260 to you going into the super bowl b) if the first half is a tie or SF win AND NYG win the game, your lay wins making NYG worth £660.00 going into the Super Bowl. c) If a tie or SF HT lead and SF win, SF worth £150.00 going into the superbowl But you need to bet AGAINST the Giants at this point. So, at a glance, can repeat the dutching going into the Superbowl or leave the book as it is and know that you'll be green. Simply doing the 'green out' in the super bowl market, won't give you that max amount so half your green disappears this weekend. ALSO: if you go over the top trading and trying to balance, you'll most likely end up worse off from bad trades or cornering yourself. Position yourself then enjoy the game and the fact that come Monday, your account will be greener. |
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Position yourself then enjoy the game and the fact that come Monday, your account will be greener.
Just to nitpick, it's an express payout market which means you've already had £52.40 released to available funds. |
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BTW, philsafc, would be good to know what you decided to do.
Also, as mentioned, you can close off at £175 but, as mentioned, some creativity and plays on the lines can bring in a bit more even before the kick-off. |
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Hey guys, thanks again for all the suggestions (especially shapeshifter).
Apologies for being slow to update this, but I'm on overnight shifts this week and therefore not around as much. I'm going to print this all out tonight and hopefully find time to decide which way to go. |
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Price to lay NYG in the HT/FT market was 3.75 so I've laid £100 there.
Would it also make sense to lay Giants for 60 and Ravens for 15 in the Superbowl market??? Discounting the HT/FT bet, that would leave £153 on Pats, £129 on SF, £347 on Giants and -£1.60 on Ravens (who I think will lose to the Pats). |
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The other market I found (sorry, no time to do math on this) would be playing the Super Bowl Combo market.
If I get a chance, will plug some figures in. As mentioned, philsafc. You are in the drivers seat so any positions you go in, make sure it doesn't become a huge juggle. |
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philsafc • January 20, 2012 2:07 AM GMT
Price to lay NYG in the HT/FT market was 3.75 so I've laid £100 there. I believe this ends as a WIN/WIN with your bank at £560 + 100 no risk in your pocket  Did you do anything with the Pats/Ravens game? |
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philsafc, curious on how you're closing this out.
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ttt.
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Looking at it, HT/FT NY/NY is the play again to shift the bank.
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