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In Schalke 04's footsteps

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By:

Eddie the eagle When: 18 Jan 12 20:57

Bank 1: 420 Bank 2: 1.26 k Bank 3: 3.78 k Bank 4: 11.34 k Bank 5: 25.2 k

14. Laid Molly Round(15.10 Newb) to place @ 4.78 for a liability of 400. Won
15. Laid Akadyr(16.20 Sthl) to place @ 2.7 for a liability of 400. Lost
16. Sweden to beat Bahrain Football). 1000 @ 1.6 Won
17. Braga/Braga in the HT/FT market in Braga - Penafiel. 420 @ 1.76 Won
18. AC Milan to lead at HT against Novara. 420 @ 1.631 Won
19. Laid Barcelona against Real Madrid @ 2.62 for a liability of 420.

Banked : 779.79

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 00:35

By:

Trevh When: 19 Jan 12 01:13

Nice results Eddie, shame about the suicidal staking plan ;)

I quickly calculated your results to bet number 19 risking level stakes of 10% of the starting bank on each bet (which is too high but would last twice as long as 5 losing martingaled bets) and the result (deducting 3% comm on each win) would be £8,000 profit. :)

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 07:30

Thanks Trevh.
The strike rate has been good so far, but I expect that to drop down so that I over time would end up roughly breaking even before commission if I used level stakes.
This is so because the selections here are purely based on odds. No research are made in any of the selections. I just pick whatever comes up next with sufficient liquidity. I may listen to my gut though and as it has been involved in my betting for decades, one might claim that some kind of research or experience are involved.
So therefore I actually think it's far more likely that I will be able to double my starting bank using this suicidal Schalke 04 approach rather than the sensible level stakes one.
Of course it's also much more likely that it will bust, at least much faster than the traditional approach.

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 07:37

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 07:46

Bank 1: 420 Bank 2: 1.26 k Bank 3: 3.78 k Bank 4: 11.34 k Bank 5: 25.2 k

18. AC Milan to lead at HT against Novara. 420 @ 1.631 Won
19. Laid Barcelona against Real Madrid @ 2.62 for a liability of 420. Lost
20. Chicago to beat Buffalo(icehockey) Money Line. 1.260 @ 1.48 Won
21. Laid Dance Man(07.37 Seym-AUS) to win @ 4.4 for a liability of 420 Won
22. Laid Kiddy Cat(07.45 Pinj-AUS) to win @ 3.64 for a liability of 420

Banked : 1068.45

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 08:03

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 08:22

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 08:45

By:

frames When: 19 Jan 12 11:13

Good luck with the thread Eddie.Sent you a message.

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 12:26

Thanks, I've messaged you back.

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 12:31

Bank 1: 420 Bank 2: 1.26 k Bank 3: 3.78 k Bank 4: 11.34 k Bank 5: 25.2 k

22. Laid Kiddy Cat(07.45 Pinj-AUS) to win @ 3.64 for a liability of 420 Won
23. Laid Hendry(08.10 Seym-AUS) to place @ 3 for a liability of 420 Won
24. Laid Scotland Street(08.22 Pinj) to win @ 2.87 for a liability of 420 Won
25. Simon to beat Benneteau inrunning. 420 @ 1.83 Lost
26. Laid the draw in Bani Suweif-AIAI(Egyption football) @ 3.18 for a liability of 1260

Banked : 1646.37

By:

Northbouy When: 19 Jan 12 13:19

Schalke wouldnt bet on anything lesser than 3rd division Russian football. i think you are over Schalking it with the Egyption football.

By:

CrowsEye When: 19 Jan 12 15:28

You clearly don't know the 'Millionaire Pharaohs Egyptian Football System', Northbouy.

A pocket full of shekels in time for Ramadan or your money back!

By:

noovae1 When: 19 Jan 12 15:40

Interesting system.
So you would need to lose 5 x 1.5 bets to lose the bank, thats about a ~1:250 chance to go broke each time you start a new series of bets.

Can imagine this system is not so bad if you always pick value, would probably reduce it to a ~1:1000 chance or so.

By:

greedkillsmybankagain When: 19 Jan 12 15:46

if
all
bets
at
1.5
.
bank
4
wont
cover
all
previous
banks
and
make
a
profit
and
bank
5
will
just
cover
bank
4

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 15:48

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 15:54

noovae1 it's 1/243 to lose 5 consecutove 1.5 shots, but as you say, if you are able to bet at value, you will significantly improve your chances of success.

greedkills.. , bank 4 is big enough to cover the first 3 losing, but you are correct that bank 5 isn't big enough to cover earlier losses if betting @ 1.5 there.

By:

noovae1 When: 19 Jan 12 15:58

I see, probably better to go with chuncks that cover all previous banks.
A little more safety.

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 16:00

Bank 1: 420 Bank 2: 1.26 k Bank 3: 3.78 k Bank 4: 11.34 k Bank 5: 25.2 k

24. Laid Scotland Street(08.22 Pinj) to win @ 2.87 for a liability of 420 Won
25. Simon to beat Benneteau inrunning. 420 @ 1.83 Lost
26. Laid the draw in Bani Suweif-AIAI(Egyption football) @ 3.18 for a liability of 1260 Won
27. Laid The Cockney Mackem(15.50 Taun) to place @ 2.8 for a liability of 420 Lost
28. Laid the draw in Panaitolikos-OFI(Greek football) @ 3.25 for a liability of 1260

Banked : 1787.97

By:

greedkillsmybankagain When: 19 Jan 12 16:01

bank
4
wont
make
a
profit
after
comm
at
pdds
of
1.5

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 16:10

greedkills, you are correct if one are on 5 % commission. If only betting @ 1.5 one would need to be on 3.7 % commission or less to make a tiny profit from bank 4.
I'm currently on 2.7 % so that isn't an issue at the moment. I'm also not only betting @ exactly 1.5.
I can adjust stakes a little depending on how far away from 1.5 the odds I bet at are.

By:

catfloppo When: 19 Jan 12 17:00

Eddie the eagle
19 Jan 12 15:54 Joined: 01 Feb 04 | Topic/replies: 4,621 | Blogger: Eddie the eagle's blog
noovae1 it's 1/243 to lose 5 consecutove 1.5 shots, but as you say, if you are able to bet at value, you will significantly improve your chances of success.

greedkills.. , bank 4 is big enough to cover the first 3 losing, but you are correct that bank 5 isn't big enough to cover earlier losses if betting @ 1.5 there.

Now we know you're a fraud

By:

Northbouy When: 19 Jan 12 17:02

do you have the bottle to do bank 5

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 17:13

With bank 5 being proportional to the others as it is now I would need to back someting 1.6 - 1.7 in order to make a profit from that run. The more closer to 1.6 the more I have banked since the last bank/stake increase.
But I also aim to slowly grow bank 5 a little more proportionally than the other 4.

Northbouy, this will guaranteed go on until starting bank is either doubled or busted.

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 18:54

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 19 Jan 12 21:27

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 20 Jan 12 01:06

By:

Eddie the eagle When: 20 Jan 12 08:57

Bank 1: 420 Bank 2: 1.26 k Bank 3: 3.78 k Bank 4: 11.34 k Bank 5: 25.2 k

24. Laid Scotland Street(08.22 Pinj) to win @ 2.87 for a liability of 420 Won
25. Simon to beat Benneteau inrunning. 420 @ 1.83 Lost
26. Laid the draw in Bani Suweif-AIAI(Egyption football) @ 3.18 for a liability of 1260 Won
27. Laid The Cockney Mackem(15.50 Taun) to place @ 2.8 for a liability of 420 Lost
28. Laid the draw in Panaitolikos-OFI(Greek football) @ 3.25 for a liability of 1260 Won
29. Reykjavik to beat Fram(Icelandic football). 420 @ 1.66 Lost
30. Sp Lisbon to beat Moreirense inrunning. 1260 @ 1.51 Lost
31. Miami Heat to beat LA Lakers. Not fully matched. 1830,25 @ 1.49 Won
31 B. Dolgopolov to beat Tomic inrunning. 2300 @ 1.42

Banked : 1912.85

By:

Beat The OverRound When: 20 Jan 12 10:48

tick tock, tick tock, tick tock......

BOOM

By:

Northbouy When: 20 Jan 12 12:51

lucky its not real money

By:

catflappo When: 20 Jan 12 12:52

Why do you say that?

By:

Northbouy When: 20 Jan 12 13:06

just stirring

By:

catflappo When: 20 Jan 12 13:23

Lol, don't think Eddie would bother with this if it wasn't real.

By:

greedkillsmybankagain When: 20 Jan 12 13:46

on
2.7%
then
these
bets
are
real

By:

Northbouy When: 20 Jan 12 13:48

not sure why wasnt all matched on the bball. there was plenty available in running.

By:

catflappo When: 20 Jan 12 13:51

Perhaps he placed an offer rather than taking the available odds?

By:

Northbouy When: 20 Jan 12 15:03

it traded much higher in play

By:

catflappo When: 20 Jan 12 15:25

He may have cancelled when he thought it no longer value, he's a bit of a shrewdie you know.

By:

TheInvestor2 When: 20 Jan 12 15:55

Perhaps you could enlighten us by adding some rationale for placing these particular bets?