new betfair

Betfair Pty Ltd will be afforded no priority in the bet matching process, will pay commission at standard rates.yea right

The Tasmanian Gaming Commission has granted Betfair Pty Ltd race wagering and sports betting endorsements to be added to its Tasmanian Gaming Licence, allowing it to conduct fixed odds betting on racing and sporting events. Accordingly, we have made some amendments to our Terms and Conditions.

They key changes include:

- All wagers placed using these products will be placed directly with Betfair Pty Ltd as opposed to with any other agency (i.e. Sports Alive).
- All wagers placed using these products will be determined in accordance with the rules that are displayed at the point of market publication.
- Betfair Pty Ltd may offset risk that it has taken in accepting wagers, by placing bets directly into the betting exchange. Betfair Pty Ltd will be afforded no priority in the bet matching process, will pay commission at standard rates.

What odds Betfair Pty Ltd will be front running bar stewards?

So if someone tries to cheat them they are going to cheat their customers?

Betfair "will pay commission at standard rates."

But they will be paying commission to themselves

They could be paying 100% premium charge and it wouldn't matter to them, there is no effective charge there. This alone gives them an advantage over everyone else on the market.

Imagine a 'coin flip' market hosted by Betfair. What odds could you offer to make a profit? The true odds are 2.00 heads or tails. So you need to back at bigger odds than these, to give yourself an edge and to pay commission.

Now think what odds Betfair would need to get in order to make a profit. They can back at 2.00 and still win. Sure, there's no edge for them at even money odds, but they would still be generating commission for themselves (from the opposing bet) and paying none themselves. So effectively, they have an edge over all others in the market.

By playing in their own markets, Betfair is cheating everyone else in those markets through their unfair advantage.

I thought they'd been doing this for years?

They have Bluenose, but not the Aussie branch - I think.

Yeah, and in other earth shattering news, bears are now known to have a dump in the woods, and the Titanic is reported to be experiencing difficulties.

Maybe they'll sort out the Aussie markets/My markets bug now.

I thought they'd been doing this for years?

No they haven't. Only for multiples on the main exchanges have they been putting their money into the markets.

Oh do me a favour, it's not exactly a state secret that they hoover money in various markets.

If you are thinking about cross matching, that's a completely different concept.

No I'm not, they trade in lots of markets and have done for ages. Think about, with advantages like no delays, no commission / pc / virtually unlimited funds to push prices around, why on earth wouldn't they?

Can you show me where they said they've been doing this?

Oh for goodness sake don't be so naive, it's not something they like publicizing, is it?

Well speculation and facts are completely different things. The point at the moment is that they are now saying that they are going to be hedgeing into the exchange markets. This is big development considering the information they hold on customers and therefore have an information advantage.
This unfair advantage can only be unethetical. Where are the regulators?

The regulators?

Oh...you mean the GC I take it?

I wouldn't hold your breath, given their lamentable failure to deal with corruption in horse racing.

It's not in any way "a big development" btw.

They've admitted hedging into normal markets to offset the liability on the multiples ages ago, but heaven only knows why they bother given that the prices they offer on multiples are so unbelievably rubbish they make a fortune on them.

Firstly, toss of a coin is not evens heads or tails.
Heads side has slightly more weight than tails.
Try flipping a buttered piece of bread and you get the exaggerated result.
The higher the coin is flipped the more likely it is to land face down heads.

Presumably Betfair's fixed odds will be lower than exchange odds, otherwise backers will leave the exchange markets in droves, leaving only layers and traders high and dry.
Is this the begiining of the end of the entire exchange model?
Will they start banning winners and offering fixed odds only and credit betting?
Will they be dumping fixed odds liabilities on the exchange driving prices right down?
Too many unanswered questions.
Really worries me when they release something without full explanation and just an update to the Terms and Conditions that we must accept before placing any exchange bet.
This is like the Hunt For Red October!!!

Sounds like an increase in market turnover and liquidity would be good for anyone in the market trying to steal a price here and there?

Is this the begiining of the end of the entire exchange model?


Nah! Decline began ages ago when Corporate greed kicked in and the bean counters went on overdrive.

Well if they wanted to use known successful value bettors bets as a guide they would be able to have some pretty solid guidance on where to place their fixed odds. They might not front run the queue but they could shift the odds in the exchange closer to true value faster than is currently the case lessening mispricing opportunities as everyone will be watching their odds setting very closely and following moves.

Then using Wall Street standard short squeeze techniques every now and then they could throw a curveball shifting the odds the wrong way leading the sheep off the cliff.  So many options unfavourable to exchange bettors are possible with inside knowledge and the active participation in the market themselves if they so choose to use them.  They may not but the doubt will be gnawing away at all of us about how we are being played.

This sort of stuff is the bread and butter of Wall St and now with the City types in control they would be likely to be reverting to what has kept the stock market casino insiders in clover for the last 100 years (inside knowledge and market manipulation).

Exactly my fears zooot. I suggested each account has a secondary optional password that was required by staff to enable them to see a customer's bets before the market was completed. Most people would have no need of it but if someone who used it needed staff to look up their account in a dispute they'd have to tell them the password and change it afterwards. Betfair would argue they need to see the accounts to spot suspicious betting patterns but why do they need to see them before the event's completed? So the BHA investigation will only take 3 years instead of 3 years and 4 minutes?


Security newbie: "FFS, there's a massively profitable account here that has a near perfect record and seems to cover the entire spectrum of b3nt jocks and trainers".

Security head: "That's our account ysdc".

BTW, only 2 other people voiced support for my secondary password idea. Sharp minds my @rse.

This is a disheartening development.Can somebody tell me how betfairs profit compares to traditional bookmakers profit. So i can have betfairs perspective for this move

Feck I suspect there are many ways they can analyse data using various identifiers if they choose. We can only hope they choose not to go down that path.

In the medium term it is very much in their interests to play fair even if they don't realise it yet.  In the stock market there are revenue streams that are huge and somewhat involuntary for the high frequency traders and insiders to tap into - compulsory retirement savings funds etc. and a sembelance of a stroy that this is investing - and investing is a sound thing to do.  So lots of sheep to shear.  However recent years have seen many sheep shawn too often and they are leaving the market.

In a betting exchange the inflow of new money is much harder to maintain and more vulnerable to not even bothering.  Doubt as to integrity and reward (e.g. commission levels and PC) has a much bigger impact than in the stock market.

The point is if the City mentality of shearing the sheep every which way they can tales over and is understood to be so BF could be seen as dodgy very easily.  Word of Mouth prmotion was huge for BF in the beginning but I reckon has dried right up these days.  The regulars grind out some profit or break even but as the market toughens with time and BF slice more away with skim bots, hedging PC etc. Word of Mouth will be pretty minimal.

In short it is in BF's interests to be transperant and not try to slice a little more profit from the ecosystem in ways that take opportunity from the punter or worse actually play them for mugs.

Crossmatching PC and hedging are slicing away but very active hedging and position taking could move from a little slice here and there to doing major manipulation and classic stock market pump and dump with the benefit of superior information.

I think BF need to make it much clearer what they intend to be doing with the hedging and information access they have.

Possibly too late though

So Feck, what happens when BF need to investigate, say, a £21m bet in a market before it's settled? Phone up, password, refuse, moan...half an hour later...override password obtained and used despite the customer refusing so that an investigation can commence. Doesnt seem sensible to me.

Honestly, I don't regret my decision one bit.
Initially Betfair were providing the platform and taking a small commission. It's become evident that this platform has evolved into them driving the bus, manipulating and playing the markets, slicing and hedging, crossmatching and modelling.
Value has been hoovered out of the markets and now will be dysoned out of them!
Left are only the traders, who if successful, will be paying 60% commission.
Surely it's past due for users to vote with their feet.
With the latest developments, you'd be mad not to, because traders will be at the mercy of Betfair dumping money unpredicted.

So Feck, what happens when BF need to investigate, say, a £21m bet in a market before it's settled? Phone up, password, refuse, moan...half an hour later...override password obtained and used despite the customer refusing so that an investigation can commence. Doesnt seem sensible to me.

They'd be able to investigate once the market was finished (which is what happened anyway) but there would be nothing to stop them preventing such bets hitting the queue in the first place.

zooot, I agree with what you say but imo betfair passed the shearing too many sheep barrier a long time ago. For 8 years or so they at least had the excuse that they were not the main gainers from shell and pea activities but that was no longer the case once the pc was introduce.

zooot, I agree with what you say but imo betfair passed the shearing too many sheep barrier a long time ago. For 8 years or so they at least had the excuse that they were not the main gainers from shell and pea activities but that was no longer the case once the pc was introduced.

I can see betfair passing on bets to the exchange that successful customers indicate are value and choking ones until late on (after they drift) where the indicators suggest bad value.

This would be hideous if true and do a lot to drive away all but the low profit to turnover incumbent layers (and their punters).

Betfair need to make a statement about what exactly they intend to do because what they seem to be proposing is exactly like insider trading on the stock market.

So they intend to trade in the markets. If they intend to do in running bets then this is a very worrying thing. Who is going to regulate what they intend to do. They are going to have a big advantage over most punters with the best pics information etc. Very worrying. What's to stop them using the insider knowledge that they get (eg corrupt trainers etc) to their advantage.

If betfair decided to use "inside information" in determining whether to hedge or not, this would surely lead to the demise of betfair!? Simply for the reason: those who offer early prices will end up being forced into placing bets at the very last minute. This would lead to lower liquidity early on, which in turn would be another reason for casual players not to get involved "can't be bothered waiting til the off to get my bet on, I'll go with bookie xyz instead".  In such a circumstance the "casuals" may opt to go with betfair sportsbook instead, the trouble for betfair here is, they may have a small overround but no idea what the real prices should be as their exchange markets would be barren, more than likely they will end up getting screwed over.  Winners in such a circumstance won't be welcome at the sportsbook!  I think betfair will be worried about not having an option to trade out of large early liabilities, so treading on thin ground.  I believe they will be shooting themselves in the foot if they use their inside information unfairly. I am sure it is not even legal?  It will be pretty obvious pretty quickly for the market makers/position takers if betfair do start using their inside knowledge.

TheMaskedAvenger post @ 00:08 best sums it up for me....

The early markets are already a joke Getafix. This place would be better renamed Last5Minutes.com and it's all down to the stupid trader friendly interface.

That's something else I didn't consider.
Well before the off, in general punters are guided by bookie early prices and they work from there. Generally the market then takes it's overall direction from track odds. They have to do their own 100% market from these odds. Why wouldn't they wait for Betfair fixed prices directions from sharp minds before they enter the markets instead.
I have a feeling that last5mins.com could in fact become somewhat of a bigger reality.

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I thought they'd been doing this for years?

No they haven't. Only for multiples on the main exchanges have they been putting their money into the markets.
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Oh do me a favour, it's not exactly a state secret that they hoover money in various markets.


I'm pretty confident Betfair don't do any proprietary trading on here. They hedge multiples, and they've probably hedged bets struck off exchange for the 'high roller segment'. Seeing as Betfair scrapped the highly profitable high roller segment, though, I doubt they're engaging in proper trading as their customers do.
They have a low risk 'free money' business model, and no need for 'gambling'.

They are currently scalping the markets making no risk books, it can only get considerably worse when they become a traditional bookie.

They admitted the exchange model was broken the day they introduced PC.

Annual report:
Year ending 30/4/2010 High Rollers = £0
Year ending 30/4/2011 High Rollers = £24,704,000
Revenues from High rollers have not been allocated to a specific geographic region as the method of the placement of bets by these customers does not allow such an allocation
http://corporate.betfair.com/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/pdf/annual-Report-2011.pdf

Lori
15 Jan 12 23:43
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Maybe they'll sort out the Aussie markets/My markets bug now.

------------

nice one lori, good to keep a sense of humour when faced with troubling developments.

what i find of huge concern is that betfair are going to bet into their own markets

but they will know

1. Who are the big winning punters
2. Which selections they have bet and at what odds

frankly i find this incredible

Incredible? This would have to be illegal if the authorities understood what was happening here.
Betfair need to make a statement to clear this up.

A Betfair statement will do everything but clear this up!!! Do you really believe everything than comes from the towers????

A statement would clarify things.
There a huge distinction between having a bet with a convention Bookmaker and having a bet with the betfair exchange. With a convention bookmaker you strike at a bet at a definite price. On the Betfair exchange you can offer a price over time and hope for it to be matched, knowing that your exchange competitors have the same market information. If betfair becomes involved as a Superuser(with customer data available) than all the fairness that was the ethos of the company disappears.

"than all the fairness that was the ethos of the company disappears"    too late for that I'm afraid...

all fairness disappeared a long time ago imo

thought one of the main points of betfair was its supposed to be punter v punter not punter v bookie.

The team in charge of hedging for BF will have profit targets to meet. 

Now in the stock market standard practice for many "investment banks" with trading desks is to front run customer orders by taking an electronic peek at who and how much for a split second before trades are placed and jump in ahead if the volume is worth it.  These firms also live and breathe short squeezes and pump and dump tactics and take out customers stops with volatility.  These strategies enable high and predictable profits where otherwise it would be a hard grind.  Pump and dump is used by many larger BF traders in horse racing to sucker in the sheep only to move the market the opposite way.

Now we assume BF will have its share of ex City chaps with a background in these games.  They will be in a priviledged position for both speed and knowledge.  They will have profit targets to meet.  What will they do?  Play straight and struggle to hit their target? Trading in BF is pretty hard work and so will be hedging.  But with inside knowledge and access the temptation at an individual level to meet targets using inside knowledge and proven manipulation approaches and at a corporate level to turn a blind eye to it will be huge.

Hedging some fixed odds positions sounds srrt of innocent but the span of what it could mean is vast. It could be everything from fairly neutral impact actions to total market manipulation and we have no way of knowing which way it will go.  Most likely neutral to start with until the temptation to generate mega profits gets a hold.

I struggle to see how BF can even clear up this concern unless they step back and don't hedge at all.  From now on I'll be wondering who I'm playing against.

At a big picture level, who would you recommend BF to in such circumstances?  What is the likelihood of new money flowing into the exchange as concerns mount about who they are really playing against?  Word of mouth was BF's key promotional tool in the early days.  This would be minimal now.  They need to remember how vulnerable confidence is and note the consistent outflows from mutual funds in the stock market now the market is more clearly revealed as a Casino run by insiders.

as a trader id be worried ..as a position taker id only have to worry about who can offer me the best odds.

From the annual report I posted a link to earlier in this thread

"We are developing an integrated Exchange and sportsbook product that will allow us to provide more in-play markets as well as giving customers guaranteed execution in less liquid markets.
We believe this liquid Exchange and sportsbook combination will be unique to Betfair and will allow us to capture a greater share of the market."

Non-risk Sports revenue, which is predominantly commission earned on the Betting Exchange, was flat at £59.5m (Q1 FY11: £59.6m)

Revenue from risk Sports products was lower at £0.3m (Q1 FY11: £3.9m) following adverse sporting results in May.

http://corporate.betfair.com/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/press-releases/2011/betfair-q1-fy12-ims.pdf?

getintheir.  As a position taker if the hedgers are very active and use inside info you would find the market moves to no / low value much more quickly than at the moment.  So your best odds in the future may be consistently worse than at the moment.  Position takers will pick up fewer pricing mistakes (BF could write an algo to snap these up first) and the move to true value will happen much faster as they can steer the market if thy choose rather than letting it find its way..

From the annual report I posted a link to earlier in this thread

"We are developing an integrated Exchange and sportsbook product that will allow us to provide more in-play markets as well as giving customers guaranteed execution in less liquid markets.
We believe this liquid Exchange and sportsbook combination will be unique to Betfair and will allow us to capture a greater share of the market."
Rollo, I know this was in the annual report, but he point remains,who is going to leave money sitting in the markets  when they know the Superuser (Betfair) will sweep it with all their advantages.

Also with no data charges to pay they could use high frequency trading techniques straight from the stock market to spot moves early by bombarding the system with infor requests (potentially 1000 times a second if they cose).  So they might not jump the queue but their computers would know about moves before you and I ccan even blink.

It is pandoras box - so many options if they chose to use them.

Why are you people even discussing this? There are plenty of other places to have a bet.

I'm sure they'll happily pay as high a rate comms as possible in order to syphon any profits thru the exchange rather than pay additional levies as a bookie, wouldn't be too sure about the no priority in the bet  matching though.

The big bossman

The Tasmanian Gaming Commission has granted Betfair Pty Ltd race wagering and sports betting endorsements to be added to its Tasmanian Gaming Licence, allowing it to conduct fixed odds betting on racing and sporting events. Accordingly, we have made some amendments to our Terms and Conditions.

They key changes include:

- All wagers placed using these products will be placed directly with Betfair Pty Ltd as opposed to with any other agency (i.e. Sports Alive).
- All wagers placed using these products will be determined in accordance with the rules that are displayed at the point of market publication.
- Betfair Pty Ltd may offset risk that it has taken in accepting wagers, by placing bets directly into the betting exchange. Betfair Pty Ltd will be afforded no priority in the bet matching process, will pay commission at standard rates.

Where did you source this from?  I did a quick internet search and couldn't find anything?

We all know that the sportsbook is pending (since we have all read the annual reports right lol) and are probably all wondering what impact the sportsbook introduction will have on our betting styles and how we may have to adjust in order to level the playing field again (if possible)?  My main worry is, the above rules will apply to those punters/events that fall under the Tasmanian jurisdiction (if official?). Going off what we know about the cross matching and the legality imposed that requires betfair to give back the cross matching profits from Australian events, we "again" (other jurisdications) may not be afforded such luxuries.  In particular: "Betfair Pty Ltd will be afforded no priority in the bet matching process", for other jurisdictions with clueless gambling commissions, betfair may not impose the same fair bet matching when hedging i.e., jumping the queue.

I think it was taken from the new terms and conditions we all had to agree with a few days ago, getafix.

I didn't have to agree to any new terms?  Must be location based?

Looking in terms and conditions, the closest reference is this:

Betfair Pty Ltd has been authorised by the Tasmanian Gaming Commission to offset any risk that it assumes by accepting bets placed on the Australian Multiples Betting Platform or the Tote Extra Betting Platform, by allowing Betfair Pty Ltd to place bets into the exchange. Betfair Pty Ltd will be afforded no priority in the bet matching process and is required to pay commission at Betfair’s standard rates.

But this only relates to Tote and Multiples - nothing mentioned about accepting fixed odds betting.

.
https://promotions.betfair.com/aus-tc-summary

And what about the policising implications of this?

Who is going to police the betfair accounts to make sure they are not insider trading, I mean it isn't if they are going to report on themselves is it?

Remember the case  with one of Jack Ramsden's sons and then the farcical case with Harry The Dog (his surname has escaped me, sorry)for which the BHA both found them guilty.

Well now it seems Betfair wish to institutionalize such practices and worse.

Does the Betfair crossmatching robot beat the clock in inrunning markets or does it have to wait for the delay before its bets are executed like everyone else?

All customers respect betfair because betfair is the first betting company to allow customers to bet against each other which means we bare the risk and betfair makes a tidy sum in comms charges and the disputable pc system.

Now if betfair futher rake the system and wish to take on the risk the implications for all customers
are very worrying as not only will we understand that betfair will take half our winnings if we ever harvest the system but we may also stand to be rejected if betfair lose against us as the general bookmakers acept this policy as good practice.

How much will the old slogan "winners are welcome" be worth in five years more of corporation raking?

eco systems are very hard to maintain long term and finding the correct balance early on prevents problems later, you only have to look at planet earth to see what bad management can do

Lets be observant, open and honest, betfair have to be careful not to make a model perception mistake here, let me explain.


fact (b1)
Bookmakers can offer prices on most races early on and close to event starts and afford the risk.

fact(b2)
bookmakers have to limit bet sizes to prevent knowledgable persons making huge hurtful profits.

fact(b3)
some bookmakers if not all flag certain customers and forbid them from betting.


fact(e1)
exchanges can offer better prices as theyn dont take on the risk, the punters take on all the risk
laying at prices that would finish a coventional bookmaker!

fact(e2)
exchanges dont have to limit bet sizes because of fact(e1) and bet sizes can be huge, something bookmakers could not allow without problems.

Now as you can see exchange playing is totally different from bookmaking and to confuse the 2
is careless or manipulative as we know, so betfair must not when observing huge sums matched
on an excahge hope to take on this risk long term as they will be open to huge purges from
advantaged players in early price betting, this surley will create a problemn in that
they would be forced to restrict certain bettors and bet sizes and even strile off certain
players.

My question is if betfair intend to farm the risk that exchange players take on in the masses
how will they avoid ethos and eco harm?

Betfair's answer to this would be "we are a bookmaker" (yes they're back to being a bookmaker again) "and, as such, we are entitled to use information from customer's bets in the same way any other bookmaker is".

betfair need to take a walk down any city high street and see the living finacial corpses that we have saved from ruin, the banks and see what greed can do long term to systems!

"greed killed the bank"

whats the point in having fatter cats when all the mice have gone!

if bookmakers cant take on risk without price crunching, bet size limiting and customer avoidance then how can betfair dream to take it on?

its farcical

also why would you place a big bet at fixed odds anyway when you can get matched higher.

Betfair's answer to this would be "we are a bookmaker" (yes they're back to being a bookmaker again) "and, as such, we are entitled to use information from customer's bets in the same way any other bookmaker is".

Given they have the GC in their pocket they could even use the bookmaker argument to bet ir with zero bet placement delay and to queue jump. With their city mentality, which is evident from the way they allow customers to be mugged with nothing more than a small print warning, I think it's a case of if it can happen then it will.

If I was betfair then if wishing to maintain ethos standards which is a core component of the betfair image and take on risk they need betters to have a sliding limit that can change relative to facors they decide, for instance.

1....the price, shorter odds are less risky and can afford bigger stakes risk
2....certain runners have cloaked value as we all know and would need limiting in bet size
3....certain players will be maintaing higher ROI figures and will need bet sixe limiting.

If a liabilty model is put in place then bet size limit can be adaptive to the condions mentioned
and betfair can always rely on taking 60% from advantaged players so thats a parachute bookmakers dont possess.

So it could work but they would need to avoid the approach adopted by bookmakers which is totally
unacceptable.

It's a nightmare developement.

Any known winner could pick random events like bandy, pelota, water polo and the like - put in a lay bet at say 1.2 and watch it being instantaneously topped at 1.21

The betfair dyson will also be out in full force, superfast pictures with no bet placement delay. They don't want 60% they want 100%.

betfair must avoid taking the exchange risk on as this is negative to the exchange model
longetivity due to consumption imbalances( the big fish will eat all the little fish)

betfair dyson, brillinat quote

lmao

winners are just as impotant as losers, look at the state the average bookmaker is in now because of
year on year altering of the system, no-one is in them only the hard heads.

I can remember when bookmakers just had racing, you could get 20/1 dogs every day, no 138% over-rounds
no machines hoovering the kids, no dirty looks fron staff and phone calls when you won,it was a great place back then, how the times have changed.

bad moral stndars powered by corporation greed and competion from other leisure products has imersed the bookmakers into moral depravity towards gambling, gamcare should do something about it.

the 10% tax for high street bookmakers was a good thing, the courses got paid and they had to offer better prices to the punters, now its a duck shoot of the punter and his stack.

abolish high street bookmakers and allow only online ones this is the way forward, if you want to see a race, go racing.

tax wont let that happen of course but where is the bha tax gone? outrage.

HV, I've pm'd you.

thus far the betfair experiment has been good minus some corporation mistakes which is natural in all emerging companies, one hope that betfair can always off a unique approach to betting that is win,win
for them and for us, please dont become another bookie.

betfair is the only true brotherhood of gambling in the world and we have come too far to lower our flags
and shields, let us stake our claims here and win like knights of old

Jesus wept, any chance you could limit your verbal diarrhoea to one post?  Makes it much easier to skip straight past it.  Cheers.

rob that's very funny (sorry to laugh at your expense bf fantastic but i hope you'll concede it is a very good quip)

does anyone think this could have major flow on effects to other bookies???  i.e. Betfair coming in tighter and earlier means every other bookie needs to change to compete???

also is this only on the Aussie Wallet or everywhere???