General Betting
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new betfair
new betfair
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They are currently scalping the markets making no risk books, it can only get considerably worse when they become a traditional bookie.
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They admitted the exchange model was broken the day they introduced PC.
Annual report: Year ending 30/4/2010 High Rollers = £0 Year ending 30/4/2011 High Rollers = £24,704,000 Revenues from High rollers have not been allocated to a specific geographic region as the method of the placement of bets by these customers does not allow such an allocation http://corporate.betfair.com/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/pdf/annual-Report-2011.pdf |
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Lori
15 Jan 12 23:43 Joined: 20 Apr 04 | Topic/replies: 40,424 | Blogger: Lori's blog Maybe they'll sort out the Aussie markets/My markets bug now. ------------  nice one lori, good to keep a sense of humour when faced with troubling developments. |
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what i find of huge concern is that betfair are going to bet into their own markets
but they will know 1. Who are the big winning punters 2. Which selections they have bet and at what odds frankly i find this incredible |
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Incredible? This would have to be illegal if the authorities understood what was happening here.
Betfair need to make a statement to clear this up. |
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A Betfair statement will do everything but clear this up!!! Do you really believe everything than comes from the towers????
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A statement would clarify things.
There a huge distinction between having a bet with a convention Bookmaker and having a bet with the betfair exchange. With a convention bookmaker you strike at a bet at a definite price. On the Betfair exchange you can offer a price over time and hope for it to be matched, knowing that your exchange competitors have the same market information. If betfair becomes involved as a Superuser(with customer data available) than all the fairness that was the ethos of the company disappears. |
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"than all the fairness that was the ethos of the company disappears" too late for that I'm afraid...
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all fairness disappeared a long time ago imo
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thought one of the main points of betfair was its supposed to be punter v punter not punter v bookie.
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The team in charge of hedging for BF will have profit targets to meet.
Now in the stock market standard practice for many "investment banks" with trading desks is to front run customer orders by taking an electronic peek at who and how much for a split second before trades are placed and jump in ahead if the volume is worth it. These firms also live and breathe short squeezes and pump and dump tactics and take out customers stops with volatility. These strategies enable high and predictable profits where otherwise it would be a hard grind. Pump and dump is used by many larger BF traders in horse racing to sucker in the sheep only to move the market the opposite way. Now we assume BF will have its share of ex City chaps with a background in these games. They will be in a priviledged position for both speed and knowledge. They will have profit targets to meet. What will they do? Play straight and struggle to hit their target? Trading in BF is pretty hard work and so will be hedging. But with inside knowledge and access the temptation at an individual level to meet targets using inside knowledge and proven manipulation approaches and at a corporate level to turn a blind eye to it will be huge. Hedging some fixed odds positions sounds srrt of innocent but the span of what it could mean is vast. It could be everything from fairly neutral impact actions to total market manipulation and we have no way of knowing which way it will go. Most likely neutral to start with until the temptation to generate mega profits gets a hold. I struggle to see how BF can even clear up this concern unless they step back and don't hedge at all. From now on I'll be wondering who I'm playing against. At a big picture level, who would you recommend BF to in such circumstances? What is the likelihood of new money flowing into the exchange as concerns mount about who they are really playing against? Word of mouth was BF's key promotional tool in the early days. This would be minimal now. They need to remember how vulnerable confidence is and note the consistent outflows from mutual funds in the stock market now the market is more clearly revealed as a Casino run by insiders. |
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as a trader id be worried ..as a position taker id only have to worry about who can offer me the best odds.
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From the annual report I posted a link to earlier in this thread
"We are developing an integrated Exchange and sportsbook product that will allow us to provide more in-play markets as well as giving customers guaranteed execution in less liquid markets. We believe this liquid Exchange and sportsbook combination will be unique to Betfair and will allow us to capture a greater share of the market." |
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Non-risk Sports revenue, which is predominantly commission earned on the Betting Exchange, was flat at £59.5m (Q1 FY11: £59.6m)
Revenue from risk Sports products was lower at £0.3m (Q1 FY11: £3.9m) following adverse sporting results in May. http://corporate.betfair.com/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/press-releases/2011/betfair-q1-fy12-ims.pdf? |
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getintheir. As a position taker if the hedgers are very active and use inside info you would find the market moves to no / low value much more quickly than at the moment. So your best odds in the future may be consistently worse than at the moment. Position takers will pick up fewer pricing mistakes (BF could write an algo to snap these up first) and the move to true value will happen much faster as they can steer the market if thy choose rather than letting it find its way..
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From the annual report I posted a link to earlier in this thread
"We are developing an integrated Exchange and sportsbook product that will allow us to provide more in-play markets as well as giving customers guaranteed execution in less liquid markets. We believe this liquid Exchange and sportsbook combination will be unique to Betfair and will allow us to capture a greater share of the market." Rollo, I know this was in the annual report, but he point remains,who is going to leave money sitting in the markets when they know the Superuser (Betfair) will sweep it with all their advantages. |
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Also with no data charges to pay they could use high frequency trading techniques straight from the stock market to spot moves early by bombarding the system with infor requests (potentially 1000 times a second if they cose). So they might not jump the queue but their computers would know about moves before you and I ccan even blink.
It is pandoras box - so many options if they chose to use them. |
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Why are you people even discussing this? There are plenty of other places to have a bet.
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I'm sure they'll happily pay as high a rate comms as possible in order to syphon any profits thru the exchange rather than pay additional levies as a bookie, wouldn't be too sure about the no priority in the bet matching though.
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The big bossman
The Tasmanian Gaming Commission has granted Betfair Pty Ltd race wagering and sports betting endorsements to be added to its Tasmanian Gaming Licence, allowing it to conduct fixed odds betting on racing and sporting events. Accordingly, we have made some amendments to our Terms and Conditions. They key changes include: - All wagers placed using these products will be placed directly with Betfair Pty Ltd as opposed to with any other agency (i.e. Sports Alive). - All wagers placed using these products will be determined in accordance with the rules that are displayed at the point of market publication. - Betfair Pty Ltd may offset risk that it has taken in accepting wagers, by placing bets directly into the betting exchange. Betfair Pty Ltd will be afforded no priority in the bet matching process, will pay commission at standard rates. Where did you source this from? I did a quick internet search and couldn't find anything? We all know that the sportsbook is pending (since we have all read the annual reports right lol) and are probably all wondering what impact the sportsbook introduction will have on our betting styles and how we may have to adjust in order to level the playing field again (if possible)? My main worry is, the above rules will apply to those punters/events that fall under the Tasmanian jurisdiction (if official?). Going off what we know about the cross matching and the legality imposed that requires betfair to give back the cross matching profits from Australian events, we "again" (other jurisdications) may not be afforded such luxuries. In particular: "Betfair Pty Ltd will be afforded no priority in the bet matching process", for other jurisdictions with clueless gambling commissions, betfair may not impose the same fair bet matching when hedging i.e., jumping the queue. |
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I think it was taken from the new terms and conditions we all had to agree with a few days ago, getafix.
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I didn't have to agree to any new terms? Must be location based?
Looking in terms and conditions, the closest reference is this: Betfair Pty Ltd has been authorised by the Tasmanian Gaming Commission to offset any risk that it assumes by accepting bets placed on the Australian Multiples Betting Platform or the Tote Extra Betting Platform, by allowing Betfair Pty Ltd to place bets into the exchange. Betfair Pty Ltd will be afforded no priority in the bet matching process and is required to pay commission at Betfair’s standard rates. But this only relates to Tote and Multiples - nothing mentioned about accepting fixed odds betting. |
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https://promotions.betfair.com/aus-tc-summary |
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And what about the policising implications of this?
Who is going to police the betfair accounts to make sure they are not insider trading, I mean it isn't if they are going to report on themselves is it? Remember the case with one of Jack Ramsden's sons and then the farcical case with Harry The Dog (his surname has escaped me, sorry)for which the BHA both found them guilty. Well now it seems Betfair wish to institutionalize such practices and worse. |
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Does the Betfair crossmatching robot beat the clock in inrunning markets or does it have to wait for the delay before its bets are executed like everyone else?
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All customers respect betfair because betfair is the first betting company to allow customers to bet against each other which means we bare the risk and betfair makes a tidy sum in comms charges and the disputable pc system.
Now if betfair futher rake the system and wish to take on the risk the implications for all customers are very worrying as not only will we understand that betfair will take half our winnings if we ever harvest the system but we may also stand to be rejected if betfair lose against us as the general bookmakers acept this policy as good practice. How much will the old slogan "winners are welcome" be worth in five years more of corporation raking? |
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eco systems are very hard to maintain long term and finding the correct balance early on prevents problems later, you only have to look at planet earth to see what bad management can do
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Lets be observant, open and honest, betfair have to be careful not to make a model perception mistake here, let me explain.
fact (b1) Bookmakers can offer prices on most races early on and close to event starts and afford the risk. fact(b2) bookmakers have to limit bet sizes to prevent knowledgable persons making huge hurtful profits. fact(b3) some bookmakers if not all flag certain customers and forbid them from betting. fact(e1) exchanges can offer better prices as theyn dont take on the risk, the punters take on all the risk laying at prices that would finish a coventional bookmaker! fact(e2) exchanges dont have to limit bet sizes because of fact(e1) and bet sizes can be huge, something bookmakers could not allow without problems. Now as you can see exchange playing is totally different from bookmaking and to confuse the 2 is careless or manipulative as we know, so betfair must not when observing huge sums matched on an excahge hope to take on this risk long term as they will be open to huge purges from advantaged players in early price betting, this surley will create a problemn in that they would be forced to restrict certain bettors and bet sizes and even strile off certain players. My question is if betfair intend to farm the risk that exchange players take on in the masses how will they avoid ethos and eco harm? |
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Betfair's answer to this would be "we are a bookmaker" (yes they're back to being a bookmaker again) "and, as such, we are entitled to use information from customer's bets in the same way any other bookmaker is".
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betfair need to take a walk down any city high street and see the living finacial corpses that we have saved from ruin, the banks and see what greed can do long term to systems!
"greed killed the bank" |
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whats the point in having fatter cats when all the mice have gone!
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if bookmakers cant take on risk without price crunching, bet size limiting and customer avoidance then how can betfair dream to take it on?
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its farcical
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also why would you place a big bet at fixed odds anyway when you can get matched higher.
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Betfair's answer to this would be "we are a bookmaker" (yes they're back to being a bookmaker again) "and, as such, we are entitled to use information from customer's bets in the same way any other bookmaker is".
Given they have the GC in their pocket they could even use the bookmaker argument to bet ir with zero bet placement delay and to queue jump. With their city mentality, which is evident from the way they allow customers to be mugged with nothing more than a small print warning, I think it's a case of if it can happen then it will. |
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If I was betfair then if wishing to maintain ethos standards which is a core component of the betfair image and take on risk they need betters to have a sliding limit that can change relative to facors they decide, for instance.
1....the price, shorter odds are less risky and can afford bigger stakes risk 2....certain runners have cloaked value as we all know and would need limiting in bet size 3....certain players will be maintaing higher ROI figures and will need bet sixe limiting. If a liabilty model is put in place then bet size limit can be adaptive to the condions mentioned and betfair can always rely on taking 60% from advantaged players so thats a parachute bookmakers dont possess. So it could work but they would need to avoid the approach adopted by bookmakers which is totally unacceptable. |
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It's a nightmare developement.
Any known winner could pick random events like bandy, pelota, water polo and the like - put in a lay bet at say 1.2 and watch it being instantaneously topped at 1.21 The betfair dyson will also be out in full force, superfast pictures with no bet placement delay. They don't want 60% they want 100%. |
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betfair must avoid taking the exchange risk on as this is negative to the exchange model
longetivity due to consumption imbalances( the big fish will eat all the little fish) |
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betfair dyson, brillinat quote
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lmao
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