General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
09 Jan 12
15:55
Joined:
Date Joined:
06 Feb 06
Can anyone recommend a source for learning the mathematical theory behind price derivation for major sports?
The source can be a text or a website.
Many thanks in advance
The source can be a text or a website.
Many thanks in advance
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 10
|
By:
I am subscribed to patrickMT's, YouTube Channel. His video's have helped me brush up on my maths skills. Although it's not sports related, he explains maths very succinctly.
http://www.youtube.com/user/patrickJMT?feature=g-all-u |
|
By:
Probably best to brush up on your measure theory first, I can recommend Noel Vaillant's site:
probability.net |
|
By:
It comes with experience.
|
|
By:
most of the mathematics associated with football markets is simple mathematics. if u had good probability and arithmetic skills u will find how
|
|
By:
Gentlemen, thanks for the replies.
Greens/Divide, thanks for the advice, I will check out these sources Kenilworth, I agree experience helps, but I want a reliable source for the theory. If you dont have the theory, it will take a hell of a lot longer to figure this out! Henok, I have excellent mathematics skills but I would like to know for example, which distribution curve should be used for football and which for basketball? I can derive tennis prices, correct score markets for other sports etc, not such great issues when it comes to sports or markets with lots of definite increments (points in tennis, frames in snooker) and I can use stats and a bit of my own nouse (sp?) to create the base variables to begin with to do this, but I would like to know the exact models to use for each sport to be able to derive prices both pre-live and live. If a football team starts at 1.60 and is 1-0 up at half time I know that their price will be roughly 1.17 - 1.20, but this is just from experience and a decent understanding of prices, I would like to know how the price arrives here only using supremacy and expectancy values. Any further help would be very welcome. |
|
By:
but I would like to know the exact models to use for each sport to be able to derive prices both pre-live and live.
Well, there is not necessarily a great deal of consensus on what the correct model is for each sport. Eg. in football, some argue for a (non-homogenous) Poisson distribution, and others for a negative binomial. |
|
By:
Contrarian (aptly named!), you are absolutely right, but I would like to find the models for each sport that there is most concensus about, or even any models that are applicable that I could take an opinion between myself.
For example, where would I learn the negative binomial and the Poisson? Have you any good sources? |
|
By:
For the Poisson distribution there is a very good and concise explanation in
FIFTY CHALLENGING PROBLEMS IN PROBABILITY,F Mosteller,Dover Books,available from Amazon for about £5.It is to be found in the solution to the Moldy Gelatin(sic) problem. The Poisson Process is dealt with very well by Prof.Henk Tijms in UNDERSTANDING PROBABILITY,Cambridge Press.(Be wary of his answers as he is a little slap dash, to say the least.) You will also find the negative binomial distribution dealt with in Tijm's book. .......................................................................... PROBABILITY MODELS ,Prof.J Haigh,Springer Undergraduate Mathematics Series,is very good too.He covers most things in this book and he is,as far as I can tell,accurate.Buy it from America it is cheaper over there,a lot cheaper. ........................................................................... |
|
By:
dunlaying: thank you very much for posting, this is exactly what I was looking for
|
|
By:
By now there's a big academic literature on modelling football scores, but one of the earliest papers that kicked it all off (and explains the basic idea of Poisson regression) is 'Modelling Association Football Scores' by M.J. Maher (1982). Google Scholar will turn up a pdf.
|