General Betting
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Hi all, I have been using betfair for a while without actually joining and thought it was about time as I have been seeing how some ratings have been doing and Ive been quite surprised by the results. I have kept track now of 2,967 races in total in which the following have come to light from the highest 3 rated on these collatreal rating on Uk based horse racing.
Top Rated
698 Winners (25.09%)
1427 Placed (includes winners) (51.29%)
185 Non-runners
2782 runners
Resulting in a Win profit +159.67pts at Betfair SP & Place only profit +43.46pts (level stakes)
2nd Rated
Winners 489 (17.72%)
Placers 1229 (44.53%)
Non Runners 207
Runners 2760
Resulting in Win profit +32.35pts Place Profit +165.02pts (Level Stakes)
3 rated
Winners 374 (13.44%)
Placers 961 (44.53%)
Non Runners 185
Runners 2782
Resulting in Win profit +136.66pts Place Profit -62.37pt (Level Stakes Betting)
Top 3 Combined
Winners 1,561
Races 2,763
Win % 56.49%
Backing all 3
Winners 1,561
Selections 8,324
Win % 5.33
Overal Profit (BSP) +328.65pts
Return on Investment of 3.95% Which is better then a bank.
Breaking it down by Track, the following have had winners in the first 3 in the ratings
Cartmel 16 20 80.00%
Hamilton 21 27 77.78%
ludlow 27 35 77.14%
Perth 10 13 76.92%
Fakenham 14 19 73.68%
Towcester 19 27 70.37%
Uttoexter 39 56 69.64%
Exeter 27 39 69.23%
Huntingdon 30 45 66.67%
Windsor 18 27 66.67%
Epsom 17 26 65.38%
Newbury 34 52 65.38%
Plumpton 22 34 64.71%
Worcester 18 28 64.29%
Folkestone 25 40 62.50%
Pontefracht 18 29 62.07%
Market Rasen 16 26 61.54%
Wetherby 25 41 60.98%
Musselbrugh 26 44 59.09%
Hexham 20 34 58.82%
Taunton 8 14 57.14%
Leicester 33 58 56.90%
Cheltenham 26 46 56.52%
Bangor 15 27 55.56%
ffos las 36 65 55.38%
Wolverhampton 174 316 55.06%
Aintree 11 20 55.00%
Sedgefield 18 33 54.55%
Warwick 24 44 54.55%
Hereford 19 35 54.29%
Southwell 59 110 53.64%
Wincanton 16 31 51.61%
Nottingham 20 39 51.28%
Redcar 27 53 50.94%
Carlisle 29 57 50.88%
Fontwell 29 57 50.88%
Lingfield 58 115 50.43%
Chepstow 37 74 50.00%
Newton abbott 14 28 50.00%
Thirsk 7 14 50.00%
Kempton 128 267 47.94%
Ascot 22 46 47.83%
Stratford 10 21 47.62%
Newmarket 39 82 47.56%
Haydock 29 61 47.54%
Kelso 14 30 46.67%
Catterick 23 51 45.10%
Goodwood 22 49 44.90%
Newcastle 23 52 44.23%
Ripon 9 21 42.86%
York 9 21 42.86%
Sandown 13 31 41.94%
Brighton 14 34 41.18%
Chester 9 22 40.91%
Yarmouth 22 54 40.74%
Bath 14 36 38.89%
Doncaster 27 71 38.03%
Beverley 11 29 37.93%
Ayr 15 40 37.50%
Salisbury 8 23 34.78%
Some tracks are better then others and im sure that has to be something to do with how competitive racing is at each track, even though Cheltenham & Newbury are both very high up on the list.
All the all weather tracks are really similiar, even though when I started keeping records I didnt split kempton, Lingfield and southwel between jumps & flat!!!
Kempton 47.94%
Lingfield 50.43%
Southwell 53.64%
Wolverhampton 55.06%
All within 10% radius
9th Jan 2012 cards
Taunton - Jumps
8 wins from 14 races (57.14%)
So that on a 7 race card is near enough 4 winners will come from the first 3 in the rating as a rough guide (obviously things do change), So there is 21 horses and potentially 4 winners from them (could be more could be less)
Top rated 1/14 (7.14%)
2nd Rated 5/14 (35.74%)
3rd Rated 2/13 (15.38%)
2nd rated horses have had a massive % increase at Taunton, but it is one of the lesser used tracks I have got the data on so far so that should all change as by the total % on the ratings I can see that the top ten rated goes down in amount of winners & percentage to runners so top rated will come good eventually over time I would imagine.
Wolverhampton 174/316 (55.06%)
So with a 7 racecard, there once again is a good chance that 4 winners will come from the top 3 as well.
top 85/299 (28.42%)
2nd 50/289 (17.30%)
3rd 39/286 (13.63%)
these are all very close to the overal % with the 2nd rated just below the total, top rated horses have done well at Wolverhampton and I have the most data for this track, which shows that the ratings run in a line well.
The average win price of the top 3
top rated 3.21
2nd rated 4.71
3rd rated 6.80
Now I have set myself a rule that I dont back below 70% of that Price, So no top rated backs under 2.25 (9/4) 2nd rated 3.30 (10/3) and 3rd rated 4.76 (9/2).
I will back 2.5 times amount of horses above the amount of the requied amount of winners it highlights so with both tracks being around the 4 winners on average, I will back 10 of the 21 horses and no more then 2 in a race either.
To decide on the 10 horses I back at each track I will do only ones above the odds (excluding those below) and then the ones who will enjoy or improve on recent form (collatreal data refers to most recent horse form) in conditons & ground & class. Only 2 max allowed in any given races.
I will post the ten up after I have done the workings by either 9am or 1pm. First race is at 1.10 Taunton.
This is a trail bases for this system to be kept all on this one thread, I will try and update each evening.
All bets are to level stakes.
Top Rated
698 Winners (25.09%)
1427 Placed (includes winners) (51.29%)
185 Non-runners
2782 runners
Resulting in a Win profit +159.67pts at Betfair SP & Place only profit +43.46pts (level stakes)
2nd Rated
Winners 489 (17.72%)
Placers 1229 (44.53%)
Non Runners 207
Runners 2760
Resulting in Win profit +32.35pts Place Profit +165.02pts (Level Stakes)
3 rated
Winners 374 (13.44%)
Placers 961 (44.53%)
Non Runners 185
Runners 2782
Resulting in Win profit +136.66pts Place Profit -62.37pt (Level Stakes Betting)
Top 3 Combined
Winners 1,561
Races 2,763
Win % 56.49%
Backing all 3
Winners 1,561
Selections 8,324
Win % 5.33
Overal Profit (BSP) +328.65pts
Return on Investment of 3.95% Which is better then a bank.
Breaking it down by Track, the following have had winners in the first 3 in the ratings
Cartmel 16 20 80.00%
Hamilton 21 27 77.78%
ludlow 27 35 77.14%
Perth 10 13 76.92%
Fakenham 14 19 73.68%
Towcester 19 27 70.37%
Uttoexter 39 56 69.64%
Exeter 27 39 69.23%
Huntingdon 30 45 66.67%
Windsor 18 27 66.67%
Epsom 17 26 65.38%
Newbury 34 52 65.38%
Plumpton 22 34 64.71%
Worcester 18 28 64.29%
Folkestone 25 40 62.50%
Pontefracht 18 29 62.07%
Market Rasen 16 26 61.54%
Wetherby 25 41 60.98%
Musselbrugh 26 44 59.09%
Hexham 20 34 58.82%
Taunton 8 14 57.14%
Leicester 33 58 56.90%
Cheltenham 26 46 56.52%
Bangor 15 27 55.56%
ffos las 36 65 55.38%
Wolverhampton 174 316 55.06%
Aintree 11 20 55.00%
Sedgefield 18 33 54.55%
Warwick 24 44 54.55%
Hereford 19 35 54.29%
Southwell 59 110 53.64%
Wincanton 16 31 51.61%
Nottingham 20 39 51.28%
Redcar 27 53 50.94%
Carlisle 29 57 50.88%
Fontwell 29 57 50.88%
Lingfield 58 115 50.43%
Chepstow 37 74 50.00%
Newton abbott 14 28 50.00%
Thirsk 7 14 50.00%
Kempton 128 267 47.94%
Ascot 22 46 47.83%
Stratford 10 21 47.62%
Newmarket 39 82 47.56%
Haydock 29 61 47.54%
Kelso 14 30 46.67%
Catterick 23 51 45.10%
Goodwood 22 49 44.90%
Newcastle 23 52 44.23%
Ripon 9 21 42.86%
York 9 21 42.86%
Sandown 13 31 41.94%
Brighton 14 34 41.18%
Chester 9 22 40.91%
Yarmouth 22 54 40.74%
Bath 14 36 38.89%
Doncaster 27 71 38.03%
Beverley 11 29 37.93%
Ayr 15 40 37.50%
Salisbury 8 23 34.78%
Some tracks are better then others and im sure that has to be something to do with how competitive racing is at each track, even though Cheltenham & Newbury are both very high up on the list.
All the all weather tracks are really similiar, even though when I started keeping records I didnt split kempton, Lingfield and southwel between jumps & flat!!!
Kempton 47.94%
Lingfield 50.43%
Southwell 53.64%
Wolverhampton 55.06%
All within 10% radius
9th Jan 2012 cards
Taunton - Jumps
8 wins from 14 races (57.14%)
So that on a 7 race card is near enough 4 winners will come from the first 3 in the rating as a rough guide (obviously things do change), So there is 21 horses and potentially 4 winners from them (could be more could be less)
Top rated 1/14 (7.14%)
2nd Rated 5/14 (35.74%)
3rd Rated 2/13 (15.38%)
2nd rated horses have had a massive % increase at Taunton, but it is one of the lesser used tracks I have got the data on so far so that should all change as by the total % on the ratings I can see that the top ten rated goes down in amount of winners & percentage to runners so top rated will come good eventually over time I would imagine.
Wolverhampton 174/316 (55.06%)
So with a 7 racecard, there once again is a good chance that 4 winners will come from the top 3 as well.
top 85/299 (28.42%)
2nd 50/289 (17.30%)
3rd 39/286 (13.63%)
these are all very close to the overal % with the 2nd rated just below the total, top rated horses have done well at Wolverhampton and I have the most data for this track, which shows that the ratings run in a line well.
The average win price of the top 3
top rated 3.21
2nd rated 4.71
3rd rated 6.80
Now I have set myself a rule that I dont back below 70% of that Price, So no top rated backs under 2.25 (9/4) 2nd rated 3.30 (10/3) and 3rd rated 4.76 (9/2).
I will back 2.5 times amount of horses above the amount of the requied amount of winners it highlights so with both tracks being around the 4 winners on average, I will back 10 of the 21 horses and no more then 2 in a race either.
To decide on the 10 horses I back at each track I will do only ones above the odds (excluding those below) and then the ones who will enjoy or improve on recent form (collatreal data refers to most recent horse form) in conditons & ground & class. Only 2 max allowed in any given races.
I will post the ten up after I have done the workings by either 9am or 1pm. First race is at 1.10 Taunton.
This is a trail bases for this system to be kept all on this one thread, I will try and update each evening.
All bets are to level stakes.
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Replies: 43
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have you ever thought about tracking horses? making lists of horses to follow.
goodluck with your project. |
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Roadrunner could be something I could collate into the build up or maybe certain stables.
Thanks |
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As it depends on which ratings one uses or create your own rating results will vary but regardless of which system you use you are still missing a huge part of horse racing that you have not seen to factor in but no doubt you will eventually.
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Have you allowed for COMMISSION charges on RETURNS in your "Net Profit" figures ?
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DFC Ironman – Yes that is commission included mate @ 5%
I have decided that there is no need to reduce the price of the horse. Looking overall, this won’t actually help me to narrow down my bets, and is highly likely to exclude many winners. Taunton Horses 1.10 Cantabilly 2.10 Time for Spring & Vino Greigo 2.40 Dukes Art & Jump City 3.10 Otter Mist & Dantari 3.40 Follie A Deux 4.10 Double Handful & Kala Patthar Wolverhampton 2.25 Trojan Rocket & Loves Theme 2.55 Autumn Blades & Faithful Ruler 3.25 Idol Deputy & Pacey Outswinger 3.55 Golden Flight & Magnitude 4.50 Angel Gabriel 5.25 Gone To ground There is also a further qualifier, which has narrowed today’s above runners down to just five 2.10 Time for spring 2.40 Jump City 2.55 Faithful Ruler 3.10 Dantari 3.40 Follie A Deux These five I will keep as a separate rolling total just to see if the further qualifier pays dividends. |
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Thanks for reply.
It may be more useful for you if you post the full rated order for each of above races, as likely you might get more "feed-back" re what you are doing. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO SHOW POINTS FOR EACH HORSES .....JUST RATED ORDER.... You might get some not constructive comments re what you are doing........but so what ! As long as you glean something that might help you , then that is all that counts. GL |
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MARK CHAP ..... is blethering a load of rubbish..again
 re 200-1 sp winner in 1.40 race......It had a definite chance today on going IF you checked previous history. Only "doubt" was trainer.....but they have been doing well on AW recently......not NH ...... |
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TOP3MAN
I can't understand why you've listed the number of non-runners among the top three rated horses. Surely if the top rated is a non-runner then the horse that was second best assumes that position with the third best becoming 2nd rated etc? All of which brings me on to another query. Is there always a clear top rated, a clear second rated and a clear third rated in each of the races you have provided statistics for as you make no mention of joint or co-rated selections? |
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3 winners only today
Folie A Deux 8.35/1 = +7.95 Double Handful 2.20/1 = +2.09 Rightful Ruler 2.55/1 = +2.43 Returns = +12.47 Non-return = -17 Day 1 return = -4.53pts Further reduced runners 2 winners & 2 2nd's from 5 selections Returns Folie A Deux 8.35/1 = +7.95 Rightful Ruler 2.55/1 = +2.43 Returns +10.38pts Non returns -3pts P/L Day one +7.38pts Darlan & Henry Clay were both top rated horses but didnt make the ten horse cut at either track. DFC Ironman - I would, but they aren't my ratings and I dont work from them so I wont post them up. It wasnt the best of days, but u cant win everyday, if u did it would be boring and no fun.  |
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hi Top2rated. No there is jt and co rated, but I then split them down by a 2nd rating to make it 1st 2nd & 3rd. The Non runners are just a guide for me to make sure I have picked all the selections are on my excel database.
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Leicester has just the six races today and that means a likely 3 Winners, so that is 8 Selections from the 18 possaibles.
Southwell has seven races and that mean a likely 4 winners so that is 10 selections from the 21 possiables. Back with the selections |
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Good Luck...seems a lot of work for very little return..3.95% ROI dosent seem a great amount given how many races you have kept track of....I'm presuming of course that this takes you a fair while to come up with the selections.
Wishing you the best of luck though :D |
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Southwell
12.55 St Ignatius 13.25 Brunello & Jibouti 13.55 Mecox Bay 14.25 Laffan & How Sweet it is 14.55 Twennyshortkid 15.25 Ecossaise & Spin Cast 15.55 Andiamo Via Leicester 1.10 Tuscan gold & Kazlian 1.40 Edgebury & Morenito 2.10 Amercian Cricket & Group Leader 2.40 Call it On 3.40 Mahfal The further reductions like today leaves the following 1.10 Tuscan Gold 1.25 Brunello 2.10 Group Leader 2.25 Laffan |
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Looks like you are using AM site ratings re the above STATS....based on top 3 rated.( the PAST STATS are similar on AM site)
Nothing "wrong" with that ....but the way you phrased the opening post it was like you were the one doing the STATS.... As I understand AM does not do RATINGS now.......then this makes the selections today a bit "odd" in circumstances.....unless AM RATINGS are still being done? |
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you had good results today.
narrowing your selections to a few choices very good . goodluck |
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you had good results today.
narrowing your selections to a few choices very good . goodluck |
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The COURSE STATS don't look like AM site STATS though ....so must be just a coincidence that the GENERAL STATS re TOP/2ND TOP/3RD TP rated are similar.....
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DFC Ironman it isnt AM Site stats mate.
Roadrunner46 yes mate, I am trying to find something to narrow the selection process down as even though I would love to be able to back 52.67% of the winners, It would make me a millionaire, but I dont see it happening. Ideally I would love to narrow it down further, but thats for me to work out. Does anyone have anything they use to narrow down selections that has a decent % S/R? Anyway Im logging off now as its time to get some shuteye. |
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1255
2 x5612 Spacecraft 25 4 x3234 Fearless Poet 23 10 679x0 Noble Attitude 20.5 7 5x448 St Ignatius 19 1325 5 15x36 Extremely So 37.5 4 0x381 Manshoor 32.5 2 x0341 Unex Picasso 28 9 7393 Jibouti 26.5 Will post more later |
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1325
5 15x36 Extremely So 37.5 2 x0341 Unex Picasso 28 9 7393 Jibouti 26.5 8 000x3 Brunello 25.5 |
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1310
8 x0304 Tuscan Gold 31 6 1300 Status Symbol 28.5 4 82610 High On A Hill 25.5 9 2x21 Kazlian 25.5 1 43005 Enroller 25 |
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Noble att for me small win and place
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5 winners
St Ignatius 8.57/1 = +8.17 Laffan 1.17/1 = +1.07 Ecossaise 3.40/1 = +3.24 Kazlian 1.91/1 = +1.82 Amercian Cricket 6.40/1 = +6.09 Total Returns +20.39 non returns -12pts Day 2 overal score +8.39pts Brokendown further selections one winner & two placed from 4 selections P/L -1.93pts on the day Running total Breakdown 1 = +3.86pts Breakdown 2 = +5.45pts Tomorrow selections to follow later |
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two top 3 winners at Leicester missed today - Share Option (9 best) & Ballie Anrei (17th Best) of the 18 possiables. so a bit of tweeking and I could have had a nice price winner. Just one missed at Southwell in Monte Cassino (15th Best)on the list of 21 possiables.
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theonlywayforward / TOP3MAN = same person?
If you are posting em in TOP 3 order ...and list 4.......then are you now backing TOP4? 12.55 race.......How come you count the 4th rated as a WINNER? Just becoming a bit "hard" to follow what you are doing? WD on WINNERS in top rated though. |
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DFC Ironman I am not theonlywayforward.
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I had already posted the selections the system im using had given above.
theonlywayisforward posted his own ratings. The ratings I use, I pay for on a monthly subscription, I am not going to mention who they are, as one I dont want spam and 2nd I am under no obligation to post them as I dont work for them and secondly they wouldnt behappy if I did so. |
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Doncaster has a six race card and a very low % S/R from the top3, So it works out 2 possiable winners from the six races, so that is 5 selections from the possiable 18.
Ffos Lass has a seven race card and a decent % S/R from the top 3, So it works out 4 possiable winners from the seven races, so that is 10 Selections from the possiable 21. Kempton has a eight racecard and a average % S/R from the top 3, So it works out 4 possiable winners from eight races, so tha is 10 selections from the possiable 24. Selections after workings up |
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thanks for posting ratings.
so breakdown bets didnt make a profit today. yesterday they did. overall ,all selections made profits today. bit confusing. think I undetstand. non returns for day 1, you had 17 , still made money because theywere not on breakdown list. have you cooked the books. only joking. interesting thread. |
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Doncaster
13.05 Quouska De L'Isop & Barenger 14.50 Flaygrey & Arctic Actress 15.55 Shotavodka Ffos Lass 13.15 Saphire Night & The Falkander 13.50 Rimini 14.25 Bobs Law & Midnight Tuesday 15.00 Al Shabbiya & Inknerrow Rose 15.35 Fleur De Vassy & Hector's House 16.05 Tiger's Jacey Advance filter leaves 13.15 The falkander 14.25 Midnight Tuesday 14.50 Arctic Actress 15.55 Shotavodka Kempton to follow |
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Kempton
4.15 Avonvalley & Lissleton Cross 4.45 Cherylemore & Nibani 5.15 Earlsmedic 6.15 Meia Noite & Belinsky 6.45 Microlight 7.15 Nina Rose & Perfect Chi No Further quailifiers on Kempton |
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Sorry T3M .....your post at
TOP3MAN 09 Jan 12 21:01 Never spotted last night......mind was on other "things" at time .....so apologise for not seeing your early post ! GL with bets. |
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it's ok mate
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DFCIRONMAN 10 Jan 12 20:01
theonlywayforward / TOP3MAN = same person? When i post my ratings i give you a figure and therefore a reason to back or lay. As the poster is unwilling to do that there will be no further involvement from me on this tread. I cannot see any valid reason to be competitive with half loaded crap. |
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Looks interesting and I operate off a similar system but yours seems a little more broad, but you turnover a lot more bets compared to the %.
I'd rather have less work tbh!  |
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Just the four returns today
The Falkander 3.09/1 = +2.94 Al Shababyia 16/1 = +15.23 Nibani 2.80/1 = +2.67 Belinsky 5.6/1 = +5.33 Returns = +26.32 Non Returns = -20pts Breakdown 1 +10.18pts Breakdown 2 +5.39pts Several missed top rated winners Simply Ben, Tartnella Lady, Mountainous, Hi George, Loose Pretender, Cadeaux Pearl!! Still profit made on the day. |
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7 Race card at catterick, 3 possiable winners, resulting in 8 selections
7 Race card at Fontwell, 4 possiable winners, resulting in 10 selections 7 race card at kempton, 3 Possiable winners, Resulting in 8 Selections 7 Race card at Southwell, 4 Possiable winners, resulting in 10 Selections Busy day ahead Selections to follow |
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Selections
Catterick 12.45 King of the celts 13.15 River D'Or & Dove Hill 13.45 Aagean Destiny & Star in Flight 14.15 Shaking hands 14.45 Turbolinas 15.15 Otto Quercus Further filter leaves 1.15 Dove Hill 1.45 Aegean Destiny 2.45 Turbolinas Fontwell 1.05 Johnny Owen 1.35 Carpincho & Sherwani Wolf 2.05 Makethemostofnow & Twin Bud 2.35 Marodima & Jordan 3.05 Oscar Charlie & King of castle 3.35 Miss Fleur Further filter leaves 1.05 Johnny Owen 1.35 Sherwani Wolf 3.05 Oscar Charlie Southwell 12.55 Soopacal & Upper Lambourn 13.25 Litup my world 14.25 Dashing Eddie & Community 14.55 Bravestofthe brave 15.25 Drimony Lad & Lowerthewood 15.55 Fear Nothing & Greenhead high further filter leaves 14.25 Commuinty 15.55 Drinory Lad Kempton 4.15 Fayre Bella & Clerical 4.45 Pearl Rebel & Leenavesta 5.15 Moral Issue 6.15 Laconicos & Kai Mook 6.45 Ocean Legend Further Filter Leaves 4.15 Clerical |
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Returns so far
Catterick -8pts Fontwell +1.35 Carpincho 0.72/1 +0.68 Marodima 5.05/1 +4.81 King Of Castile 3/1 +2.86 Southwell +7.75 Upper Lambourn 2.15/1 +2.05 Dashing eddie 1.05/1 +1 Bravestofthebrave 2.16/1 +2.06 Drinmoy Lad 2.26/1 +2.15 Greenhead high 5.76/1 +5.49 |