General Betting
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If ever we needed to be convinced that laying favourites in football is the best way forward, the Premier League has provided it in these past two days.
Of the nine games played so far (with only Norwich v Spurs to come at 7.3o tonight), Man Utd are the only pre-match favourites to have won. Their 5-0 home demolition of Wigan was hardly a shock either as the Reds comfortably lived up to their best available 1.16 SP.
But look how the others fared (winning prices in bold):
*Swansea 1 QPR 1 2.00 3.8(?) 4.5(?)
Arsenal 1 - 1 Wolverhampton 1.22 6.32 14.86
Stoke 0 - 0 Aston Villa 1.97 3.38 3.97
Bolton 0 - 2 Newcastle 2.56 3.40 2.81
Liverpool 1 - 1 Blackburn 1.25 5.63 13.74
Man Utd 5 - 0 Wigan 1.16 7.25 18.55
Sunderland 1 - 1 Everton 2.44 3.27 2.98
West Bromwich 0 - 0 Man City 7.41 4.37 1.44
Chelsea 1 - 1 Fulham 1.31 5.05 11.28
(*prices for the Swansea game unconfirmed, but Swans were definite faves)
So be careful before you lump on Spurs at Carrow Road....!
Of the nine games played so far (with only Norwich v Spurs to come at 7.3o tonight), Man Utd are the only pre-match favourites to have won. Their 5-0 home demolition of Wigan was hardly a shock either as the Reds comfortably lived up to their best available 1.16 SP.
But look how the others fared (winning prices in bold):
*Swansea 1 QPR 1 2.00 3.8(?) 4.5(?)
Arsenal 1 - 1 Wolverhampton 1.22 6.32 14.86
Stoke 0 - 0 Aston Villa 1.97 3.38 3.97
Bolton 0 - 2 Newcastle 2.56 3.40 2.81
Liverpool 1 - 1 Blackburn 1.25 5.63 13.74
Man Utd 5 - 0 Wigan 1.16 7.25 18.55
Sunderland 1 - 1 Everton 2.44 3.27 2.98
West Bromwich 0 - 0 Man City 7.41 4.37 1.44
Chelsea 1 - 1 Fulham 1.31 5.05 11.28
(*prices for the Swansea game unconfirmed, but Swans were definite faves)
So be careful before you lump on Spurs at Carrow Road....!
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What relevance have those figures got to the Spurs match?
None whatsoever.
But there is a disturbing pattern for those who like to go big on favourites.
But there is a disturbing pattern for those who like to go big on favourites.
Hi there Plechy, let me help you out.
If you layed every team with a starting price of under 2.0 in the EPL you would have been in profit for the 2011 season, but you would have had a loss for 2010, 2009, 2008 and probably 2007 (my records are incomplete for 2007). If you were to go from 2007 up to now you would be operating at a loss. And all of these figures assume that you pay no commission.
If you want i could find you a week where all the teams with a starting price of under 2.0 won and say that this proves that favs seem to always win and you should always back them.
If you layed every team with a starting price of under 2.0 in the EPL you would have been in profit for the 2011 season, but you would have had a loss for 2010, 2009, 2008 and probably 2007 (my records are incomplete for 2007). If you were to go from 2007 up to now you would be operating at a loss. And all of these figures assume that you pay no commission.
If you want i could find you a week where all the teams with a starting price of under 2.0 won and say that this proves that favs seem to always win and you should always back them.
Perhaps I should have said a disturbing new pattern.
I honestly wasn't advocating that every favourite should be laid every time, just making a current observation. Food for thought, debate and all that.
I honestly wasn't advocating that every favourite should be laid every time, just making a current observation. Food for thought, debate and all that.
Glad to have entertained you, Jimmy.
Course, no doubt, you'd have been back on here just as swiftly had Norwich scored two late goals!
How sad.
Course, no doubt, you'd have been back on here just as swiftly had Norwich scored two late goals!
How sad.
Looks like losing favourites in the Premier League is becoming a growing trend this season. The last round of games (played last Friday to Sunday) produced just two winners out of a possible 10 based on pre-KO prices.
Again, here were the best available prices (with winners in bold):
Sunderland 1 - 0 Man City 6.74 4.06 1.52
West Bromwich 0 - 1 Everton 2.60 3.28 2.76
Arsenal 1 - 0 Q.P.R. 1.25 5.63 12.64
Bolton 1 - 1 Wolverhampton 2.17 3.35 3.40
Chelsea 1 - 3 Aston Villa 1.27 5.42 11.92
Norwich 1 - 1 Fulham 2.54 3.34 2.80
Stoke 2 - 2 Wigan 1.71 3.66 5.16
Swansea 1 - 1 Tottenham 5.01 3.64 1.74
Man Utd 2 - 3 Blackburn 1.14 7.88 21.59
Liverpool 3 - 1 Newcastle 1.52 4.06 7.06
The pattern has continued with the latest round of matches starting today, with only Chelsea living up to pre-match odds with their 2-1 win at Wolves. The other four all went down.
Fulham 2 - 1 Arsenal 3.90 3.43 1.97
Aston Villa 0 - 2 Swansea 1.83 3.44 4.68
Blackburn 1 - 2 Stoke 2.51 3.32 2.86
Q.P.R. 1 - 2 Norwich 2.12 3.38 3.55
Wolverhampton 1 - 2 Chelsea 6.64 4.05 1.53
So we have to ask ourselves:
1.Is it merely a blip mainly due to the close proximity of games and too many changes caused by injuries and nonsensical selections (and misbehaving Man United players), and it will be the case that more normal service will swiftly be resumed once the congested holiday schedule ends?
2.Are the top teams (favourites) not as good as they and the media think they are? Is the gap between the ordinary, the crap and the absolute crap closing?
3. Are managers shooting their clubs in the foot by resting players unnecessarily and constantly chopping and changing? Mancini's starting line-up, and subsequent changes, at Sunderland yesterday the perfect example of a manager taking liberties and underestimating the opposition while overestimating the quality of the players he picked.
Whatever it is, the minefield has become bigger than ever for punters trying to eke out winners in the face of silly pre-match prices.
Although, unlike the days of fixed odds bets placed in the bookies, at least the in-play facility gives us the scope to react to these strange series of events.
I guess someone will point out that the fact that so many favourites are getting beaten means some punters are winning at good odds here on BF. But how many times could you keep laying the likes of Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs before you find a large hole in your bank?
Having lost plenty backing what I thought were logical choices, I now find myself avoiding single bets in the 1X2 market and focusing more on laying correct scores, especially in-play.
Would welcome others’ thoughts…
Again, here were the best available prices (with winners in bold):
Sunderland 1 - 0 Man City 6.74 4.06 1.52
West Bromwich 0 - 1 Everton 2.60 3.28 2.76
Arsenal 1 - 0 Q.P.R. 1.25 5.63 12.64
Bolton 1 - 1 Wolverhampton 2.17 3.35 3.40
Chelsea 1 - 3 Aston Villa 1.27 5.42 11.92
Norwich 1 - 1 Fulham 2.54 3.34 2.80
Stoke 2 - 2 Wigan 1.71 3.66 5.16
Swansea 1 - 1 Tottenham 5.01 3.64 1.74
Man Utd 2 - 3 Blackburn 1.14 7.88 21.59
Liverpool 3 - 1 Newcastle 1.52 4.06 7.06
The pattern has continued with the latest round of matches starting today, with only Chelsea living up to pre-match odds with their 2-1 win at Wolves. The other four all went down.
Fulham 2 - 1 Arsenal 3.90 3.43 1.97
Aston Villa 0 - 2 Swansea 1.83 3.44 4.68
Blackburn 1 - 2 Stoke 2.51 3.32 2.86
Q.P.R. 1 - 2 Norwich 2.12 3.38 3.55
Wolverhampton 1 - 2 Chelsea 6.64 4.05 1.53
So we have to ask ourselves:
1.Is it merely a blip mainly due to the close proximity of games and too many changes caused by injuries and nonsensical selections (and misbehaving Man United players), and it will be the case that more normal service will swiftly be resumed once the congested holiday schedule ends?
2.Are the top teams (favourites) not as good as they and the media think they are? Is the gap between the ordinary, the crap and the absolute crap closing?
3. Are managers shooting their clubs in the foot by resting players unnecessarily and constantly chopping and changing? Mancini's starting line-up, and subsequent changes, at Sunderland yesterday the perfect example of a manager taking liberties and underestimating the opposition while overestimating the quality of the players he picked.
Whatever it is, the minefield has become bigger than ever for punters trying to eke out winners in the face of silly pre-match prices.
Although, unlike the days of fixed odds bets placed in the bookies, at least the in-play facility gives us the scope to react to these strange series of events.
I guess someone will point out that the fact that so many favourites are getting beaten means some punters are winning at good odds here on BF. But how many times could you keep laying the likes of Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Spurs before you find a large hole in your bank?
Having lost plenty backing what I thought were logical choices, I now find myself avoiding single bets in the 1X2 market and focusing more on laying correct scores, especially in-play.
Would welcome others’ thoughts…
CHELSEA ,MAN UTD ,ARSNEL,ARE STILL BEING RATED AS THOUGH WHEN THEY WERE GREAT ,
LIKE BRAZIL ARE PRICED AS THOUGH THEIR THE 70S BRAZIL
LIKE BRAZIL ARE PRICED AS THOUGH THEIR THE 70S BRAZIL
Laying home favourites in the Bundesliga, a method I revealed and refer to as "Bundeslayga" on my blog, proved profitable yet again in 2011. 7.69 points from 120 selections, but this can be improved to 22.08 points from 95 selections by excluding lays at 1.3x or less. It is way too early to judge whether the EPL might be moving towards a similar pattern, and forming an opinion based on a couple of rounds of matches is frankly ridiculous.
Jan 3, 2012 -- 2:05AM, cpfc4me wrote:
Laying home favourites in the Bundesliga, a method I revealed and refer to as "Bundeslayga" on my blog, proved profitable yet again in 2011. 7.69 points from 120 selections, but this can be improved to 22.08 points from 95 selections by excluding lays at 1.3x or less. It is way too early to judge whether the EPL might be moving towards a similar pattern, and forming an opinion based on a couple of rounds of matches is frankly ridiculous.
cpf....for the "1.3", you might take a look at the asian -1.5 to see what the result would have been.
That said, looking at the ROI by simply laying "All faves" is not really worth the investment (7.69 of 120 translates into a week or two of fave's coming in to knock the margin).
In the Premier League the trend seems to be for less home wins this season, about 4-5% down on previous years, but all at the expense of the draw % increasing, with away wins about the same. The big teams are not as strong as previous years, but also it could be due to lower teams away from home trying to play more ball possession such as Swansea and Wigan, meaning home fans get on their teams back quicker, Villa spring to mind and also Blackburn.
For the Blackburn v Stoke game, Stoke started as favourites on Betfair at kickoff.
cpfc4me - Haven't formed a solid opinion, just wondering if a trend is developing that cannot be ignored. A subject for debate.
UA - The pre-KO prices quoted are BEST AVAILABLE, and therefore not necessarily on Betfair.
Andriy - The point about less home wins in recent months is that it's the more favoured shorter-priced teams that are dropping the points, not the lesser lights losing more home games.
UA - The pre-KO prices quoted are BEST AVAILABLE, and therefore not necessarily on Betfair.
Andriy - The point about less home wins in recent months is that it's the more favoured shorter-priced teams that are dropping the points, not the lesser lights losing more home games.
BIG TEAMS ARE ALWAYS OVER RATED.
BOOKIES/LAYERS CAN OFFER DONKEY MUG PRICES BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE MAJORITY OF GAMBLERS ARE PRETTY CLUELESS AND ONLY INTERESTING BACKING TOP TEAMS LIKE BARCA/MADRID/CITY/UTD/BAYERN ETC ETC
SO THESE TEAMS ARE ALWAYS RIDICULOUSLY POOR VALUE.
MUGS LIKE TO CONVICE THEMSELVES THEY GOT VALUE ON THE SHORT PRICE BUT TNEY NEVER DO. ONLY WAY TO WIN HERE IS BY LAYING AND LAYING SHORT.
IF YOU BACK 5 TEAMS @ 1.20 THEN YOU NEED ALL 5 TO WIN TO MAKE PROFIT. IF ONE FAILS TO WIN THEN YOU ARE LOSING MONEY AS A BACKER.
IF YOU ARE A LAYER OF 1.20 SHOTS THEN YOU ONLY NEED 1 TO FAIL TO WIN TO MAKE A PROFIT
WHAT WOULD YOU RATHER BE? A BACKER NEEDING 5 OUT OF 5 TO WIN OR A LAYER ONLY NEEDING 1 OUT OF 5 NOT TO WIN
ITS COMMON FKING SENSE TBH
BOOKIES/LAYERS CAN OFFER DONKEY MUG PRICES BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE MAJORITY OF GAMBLERS ARE PRETTY CLUELESS AND ONLY INTERESTING BACKING TOP TEAMS LIKE BARCA/MADRID/CITY/UTD/BAYERN ETC ETC
SO THESE TEAMS ARE ALWAYS RIDICULOUSLY POOR VALUE.
MUGS LIKE TO CONVICE THEMSELVES THEY GOT VALUE ON THE SHORT PRICE BUT TNEY NEVER DO. ONLY WAY TO WIN HERE IS BY LAYING AND LAYING SHORT.
IF YOU BACK 5 TEAMS @ 1.20 THEN YOU NEED ALL 5 TO WIN TO MAKE PROFIT. IF ONE FAILS TO WIN THEN YOU ARE LOSING MONEY AS A BACKER.
IF YOU ARE A LAYER OF 1.20 SHOTS THEN YOU ONLY NEED 1 TO FAIL TO WIN TO MAKE A PROFIT
WHAT WOULD YOU RATHER BE? A BACKER NEEDING 5 OUT OF 5 TO WIN OR A LAYER ONLY NEEDING 1 OUT OF 5 NOT TO WIN
ITS COMMON FKING SENSE TBH
Hello there Plechy
What do you mean by best available prices, for the Blackburn v Stoke game the draw price was 3.45 and the Blackburn price was 2.7 on BF before it drifted.
I think that some people do go on the favourites because they are favs, but it affects the prices no more than people going on recent form. As you started your thread looking at outcomes after they had happened allow me to do the same.
Take the Man C v Liverpool game. They were trading at evens for a large part of the day and went into the game at about 1.92. Strange when last season Chelsea's pre-match price was 1.58 and and Man Utd's price was 1.74 when they played Liverpool at home. Even this season Chelsea started at 1.93 at home against Liverpool and it seems fair to say that City are a better side than Chelsea this season. Then add in the fact that Gerrard wasn't playing and neither was Suarez and City had brought back Yaya and Silva who i don't think played against Sunderland, this price seems a bit high.
Why, just because City had drawn and lost their last 2 premiership games, both of which were away but this game was at home. It seems a bit crazy. My opinion if anyone cares, there is value about, you just have to look for it, it's not as simple as just saying lay all the favs.
As you are welcoming views, what's your honest opinion on it all Plechy.
What do you mean by best available prices, for the Blackburn v Stoke game the draw price was 3.45 and the Blackburn price was 2.7 on BF before it drifted.
I think that some people do go on the favourites because they are favs, but it affects the prices no more than people going on recent form. As you started your thread looking at outcomes after they had happened allow me to do the same.
Take the Man C v Liverpool game. They were trading at evens for a large part of the day and went into the game at about 1.92. Strange when last season Chelsea's pre-match price was 1.58 and and Man Utd's price was 1.74 when they played Liverpool at home. Even this season Chelsea started at 1.93 at home against Liverpool and it seems fair to say that City are a better side than Chelsea this season. Then add in the fact that Gerrard wasn't playing and neither was Suarez and City had brought back Yaya and Silva who i don't think played against Sunderland, this price seems a bit high.
Why, just because City had drawn and lost their last 2 premiership games, both of which were away but this game was at home. It seems a bit crazy. My opinion if anyone cares, there is value about, you just have to look for it, it's not as simple as just saying lay all the favs.
As you are welcoming views, what's your honest opinion on it all Plechy.
How do you know I don't make thousands? If you are making thousands it must be by luck on your behalf because with a blanket statement like that, you don't have a clue.
And yes interesting thoughts U.A. I think some good punters compare prices from the past when in similar conditions and see if something looks out of line.
Can be a very interesting practice.
Can be a very interesting practice.
U.A. - As I alluded to earlier, I honestly think too many teams are overrated, even by their own managers. How many times has Fergie and Mancini, in particular, 'rested' players . . . only to have to drag them off the subs' bench to try and rescue a bad situation, because the players they brought in for them fell well short of the mark? What's the problem in starting your best 11 every time if they are fit? It's not rocket science.
And please don't give me all that b******s about having to rest players because they are tired. More a case of the chairman saying to the manager: 'You've signed this useless idiot for £x-million and he's on £50,000-100,000k a week's wages for the next 4 years, so when are you going to give him a game?'
If players are genuinely tired and need a break, then take them off after an hour when the team is leading the game and a win is well within sight. Too many managers are too clever for their own good.
The Premuer League isnlt getting any better just because it's tighter at the top this season. As I said, the gap is closing between the crap and the absolute crap. It's all hype, fed to the masses by Sky and everyone on the football gravy train - media, players, managers - and the vast majority of fans swallow it. Take tonight's Newcastle-Man U game. After the overrated Phil Jones declined to control or clear the ball with his foot, as any 10-year-old half decent schoolboy player would, and instead tried to head the ball that was barely 12 inches from the ground (which ended up hitting his arm before deflecting embarrassinfly into his own net),Sky's Ray Wilkins insulted our intelligence again by saying: "And that's what makes our Premier League so great". Really!
For the past two nights I've watched Man City-Liverpool and then Newcastle-United until half-time before switching over to see Real Madrid and Barca taking their Spanish Cup ties very seriously and winning in fine style. Chalk and cheese compared to the dross served up on English grounds day in, day out.
Sorry, went off on one there!
I think the top teams can no longer be trusted against anyone and I can't see this relatively new trend reversing any time soon. What we saw with Rooney and the others going on the p*** and having to be reprimanded and dropped the other day is another hint that perhaps even the most respected and revered manager in the British game today appears to no longer carry the same authority his Man U players once feared. If players are taking liberties with him and disrespecting the club and the fans who pay their wages, then what chance the other managers? Basically, most players don't give a toss about their club or their team-mates anymore and this seems especially true at the clubs who pay the most money. Take the internal aggro at City as another example, and the murmurs of discontent in the Chelsea dressing room. Player Power rules the modern game and it's getting worse.
Just keep laying these small priced favourites and, for me, it's now all about laying goals in-play before the 70th minute. FA Cup weekend should produce plenty of goals and, therefore, laying opportunities.
Newcastle should never have been 5.00 to back on Betfair at KO tonight.
And please don't give me all that b******s about having to rest players because they are tired. More a case of the chairman saying to the manager: 'You've signed this useless idiot for £x-million and he's on £50,000-100,000k a week's wages for the next 4 years, so when are you going to give him a game?'
If players are genuinely tired and need a break, then take them off after an hour when the team is leading the game and a win is well within sight. Too many managers are too clever for their own good.
The Premuer League isnlt getting any better just because it's tighter at the top this season. As I said, the gap is closing between the crap and the absolute crap. It's all hype, fed to the masses by Sky and everyone on the football gravy train - media, players, managers - and the vast majority of fans swallow it. Take tonight's Newcastle-Man U game. After the overrated Phil Jones declined to control or clear the ball with his foot, as any 10-year-old half decent schoolboy player would, and instead tried to head the ball that was barely 12 inches from the ground (which ended up hitting his arm before deflecting embarrassinfly into his own net),Sky's Ray Wilkins insulted our intelligence again by saying: "And that's what makes our Premier League so great". Really!
For the past two nights I've watched Man City-Liverpool and then Newcastle-United until half-time before switching over to see Real Madrid and Barca taking their Spanish Cup ties very seriously and winning in fine style. Chalk and cheese compared to the dross served up on English grounds day in, day out.
Sorry, went off on one there!
I think the top teams can no longer be trusted against anyone and I can't see this relatively new trend reversing any time soon. What we saw with Rooney and the others going on the p*** and having to be reprimanded and dropped the other day is another hint that perhaps even the most respected and revered manager in the British game today appears to no longer carry the same authority his Man U players once feared. If players are taking liberties with him and disrespecting the club and the fans who pay their wages, then what chance the other managers? Basically, most players don't give a toss about their club or their team-mates anymore and this seems especially true at the clubs who pay the most money. Take the internal aggro at City as another example, and the murmurs of discontent in the Chelsea dressing room. Player Power rules the modern game and it's getting worse.
Just keep laying these small priced favourites and, for me, it's now all about laying goals in-play before the 70th minute. FA Cup weekend should produce plenty of goals and, therefore, laying opportunities.
Newcastle should never have been 5.00 to back on Betfair at KO tonight.
Plechy, I have just come across this thread and haven't read it
all, but based on the first few posts I would say this.. I would
be amazed if a run of losing odds on chances didn't happen at least
once or twice during the sesaon. The results don't come along WWLWWL
WWLWWL etc
all, but based on the first few posts I would say this.. I would
be amazed if a run of losing odds on chances didn't happen at least
once or twice during the sesaon. The results don't come along WWLWWL
WWLWWL etc
Prior to last weekend, backing the big six in every league match
this season would have produced a profit of about 14 points from
107 matches, these matches obviously include those against each
other. The run of of adverse results is (IMO) just a correction and
not a trend.
this season would have produced a profit of about 14 points from
107 matches, these matches obviously include those against each
other. The run of of adverse results is (IMO) just a correction and
not a trend.
natural rebalancing of the tables. few months ago big teams
were all winning. now the pressure of so many games has taken its toll. imo
were all winning. now the pressure of so many games has taken its toll. imo
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