General Betting
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How do you get over the psychological aspect of wanting to settle for breaking even? Kind of scared to lose, so you lose, and you win, and you say that's ok for the day, and then do the same thing again and again.
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Those people don't have an edge, or at least one they are aware of. If they did, they'd be a lot more systematic and such things would cloud their vision.
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Not sure if this will help but I understand the trigger you are trying to get past.
I think that wanting to break even RATHER than lose is actually what it is. Recently, I've found a balance that has increased my risk and, ultimately, my returns. I've done it for years but needed to completely separate them into different 'mindsets' to make sure the discipline was in place. I've always been a 'system' player with spreadsheets collecting data from all directions. I've now narrowed this into dogs and use it from 11 t 2. I then trade on horses with some research used for in-running (i.e. horses that I think will shorten so place lays lower down to be matched). I'm good at trading in-running and focus on this. This frees me up to research bets but what I took this further which is to target games and research them over a couple of days, the day of the event where I bring it all together. I'm finding more value and my strike rate is comfortable. I've created a confidence that negates the goal ('goal') of getting through a week. The trading allows a buffer against my betting bank (i.e. a good day of trading will bring in 3 times my punt anyways). As I said, perhaps not the best answer to your questions but it is a matter of finding the factors that make you comfortable at this game. |
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Thanks for the replies guys. The psychological aspect is the one hurdle that's the toughest to overcome I think. The systems, strategy, stats, staking, it's all easy, but it will always be the psychology that gets in the way, at least at first, just like poker.
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Further thought on this:
I've gotten more into 'targeting' bets several days in advance. An example from the past week: I targeted Man City v Stoke on the 21st. I also had targeted the Montreal Canadiens v Chicago. I use a staking plan that factors in gains and losses. I took Man City -1.5 in the afternoon which came in. Despite the staking plan increasing my 'next bet' wager, I played 50% of that backing the Hawks in RT. Both bets were good value. In this case, both returned but I went into Hawks game playing a portion of my profits from the day. Risking more would have meant throwing back too much of the portion on the day and possibly waking to 'break even'. Instead, I called it a day knowing that no matter the result, I would have a green day. |