General Betting
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1% road to fortune
1% road to fortune
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Replies: 130
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has FAFH been fired? hes not joined in the great debate?
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What's the new lad going to do when he loses his first 5% bet ? Making 1% sounds easy. It is in fact very easy with a small bankroll, I'm sure all of us hardened veterans can attest to that. Lose a bet, and let the chasing begin. That's the real challenge.
I'm over and out on the PC debate. |
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What's the new lad going to do when he loses his first 5% bet ? Making 1% sounds easy. It is in fact very easy with a small bankroll, I'm sure all of us hardened veterans can attest to that. Lose a bet, and let the chasing begin. That's the real challenge.
Totally agree with Still Standing. Exactly. I lost 4% of my bank today and I'm very mad. Making 3% weekly is quite difficult if you have a 10K bank, let alone a 1% daily. |
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There are hundreds of websites telling us how easy it is to make massive consistant profits form gambling, they also sell rocking horse chit and geniune santa clause beard clippings by the kilo, look how the internet has blessed us all.
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I like being called 'the new lad'!!
I have no illusion about how difficult this seemingly impossible quest will be........but then life's difficult in itself |
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It is difficult because the system can only afford for a small percentage to win, therefore you have to be better than most.
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Interesting observation I have made is that the market ladder as desighed by the betfair gods
works in special increments called ticks, now its no coincidence that these ticks are proportional to helping a market so that achieving sub 101 % over-rounds is difficult because the ticks are not small enough to enable closer matching activity, they are more biased at the favourite end of the market where the majority of the money is matched but the ticks are less useful at the other end of the spectrum. My point being that if your risk betting( no resolved position, pre-result) you not only have to take into account the commission charge you will be on but also the over-round deviation plus betfairs cross-matching bot which forces wider margins between lay and back prices and why it is so difficult sometimes to reach sub 101% over-round. If your a newbie you may well be 6%-8% out of pocket on average risk bets when combining all negative forces against you mathmatically. |
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Another great problem that most punters will be aware of when risk betting based on researching form implied edges is that its so hard to know if any edge yopu percieve is true or false.
To explain this dilema properley lets look at an example, the classic coin flip! You are offered 2.00 on the outcome of a coin flip, heads or tails, now on betfair this might even be as low as 1.90(taking into account commission) so straight away yiou are at a disadvantage. You decide to look at the recent history of the results to find a trend and discover that of the last 100 flips, tails has come out 60 times.You decide that tails looks like a good thing and could have an edge so you decide to back tails for the next 100 flips. What do you think happens to the account in the next 100 flips as this example fools the punter into thinking he has an edge? |
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What happens is as simple as this, imagine you have a sequence of data x amount long
the data contains either 1 or 0, equivalent to heads or tails on a coin, over the complete lenght of x data both 1 and 0 have appeared on average 50% of the time becasue the data is quite long, in fact as long as a piece of string(  )Now if you take any small length of data say 100 units and discover a bias towards either 1 or 0 you decide to back this result in the next 100 units, what you discover is that the edge was false because once you take the 100 say units out of the equation that have 60 , 1 results you must be left with an extra 0 results in the remaining data in the form of natural variation minus bias sequences. Of course most punters will say , oh my research is cast iron or my system always works but does it really or has it only in the sequences they have looked at? So the golden rule if risk betting is that you must find an exotic form and data profiles that escapes market interest unlike conventional form and data compiling that follows the market structure. Also these percieved edges of profit must be true or robust and not false. |
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most natural variation comes in waves, these waves may not have a defined height or frequencey but they will oscilate between 2 points on average, high and low, and observing any high sequence then observing the next sequence will deliver a low result bias.
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ffs
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IF you get in qick enough on a true bias you can still ride the crest of a wave
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I sincerley hope jimmy that the ffs that you posted stands for Frequency Forecasted Systems
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or does it stand for the statement that is heard when applying cash into systems based on false trends
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Jimmy has summed it up perfectly, you should go and lie down somewhere quiet for a while, bff.
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I hope you base your bets on better information than you do diagnosing posters mental and physical health then
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See what you've started now, spalding?
 Look at still standing's and trader11's posts (some decent advice, sort of). Good luck with your attempt, anyway....  |
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It's the best I can do until you are wired into the api.
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It seems like you guys go into this in a hell of a detail??!! Surely you can do all the modelling and trend analysis that you like, but if you still don't fancy an outcome to happen it wouldn't be wise to plump for that?
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Hi spalding2011, I just waanted to bring up the major problem with all risk betting based on historic data which I have explained hopefully so as to be some use for others.
basically without boring everyone with data it boils down to this: Most percieved edges hover around the 10% mark after charges deducted, most researchers may have noticed higher results but in practice these strike rates come down and lower the effective profit margins to around 10% or even 8% for the average edge. So if you are up against say 6% loss in markets after charges then if some of your systems shall we call them are true(8%+) some are neutral (-6%) and some are negative=false(-14%) then you have to be very careful of which type of sequence you will return in all the combined types resulting returns. |
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a logical overview of the average chance of having a positive,negative or neutral retuning system over time will conclude that on average the majority of folk will be betting against the book over-round and charges, or big over-round if using bookmakers.
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I can give you an average chance that you will have of being succesful at making above £250,000 in the future.
chance of making plus £250,000 on betfair overtime is 0.01 or 1 in 10,000. |
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did
u make 1% yester day ? |
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another major problem with gamling is that it is much easier to be succesful in the very short term then it ever is in the long term so this induces a gambler to focus to much on an individual event!
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bf_fananatic 11 Dec 11 19:13
"lori, poker sites charge 10% for all games so thats not a good example really" I have heard some stupid, imbecilic, ill informed garbage on here, but that is really up there in the top 3 (or should that be bottom 3) of the lot! (It can easily be as little as 3% or even less btw) |
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Not to mention the ever impressive rakeback deals.
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every popker site I have played on, on-line, you have to pay 10% on top of your buy in
£5.00 buy in plus £0.50 charge =£5.50 total, what on earth are you on about? |
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good luck spalding.
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Thank you egner.
Its day 10 (didn't realise the community tab was a forum until the other day). I am on £110.75 and target was £10.46........in the money!!!! Just a bit of fun |
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That should read £110.46
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does
anyone have the patience to win a pound with a 100 bank and then stop till the next day? |
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maybe he is going to fast at 1%/day growth, slow down kid and stop being greedy, try o.1% /day
and give us a chance to win something before you win that much you bring on the wrath of pc4 from the betfair gods  |
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when you have a full time job and three kids I certainly have the patience, haven't got the time for much more
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when you have a full time job and three kids I certainly have the patience, haven't got the time for much more
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Same with me and many others its finding the time to bet.Betting on betfairs exchange
taxes one great resource besides money and thats time as although you can bet multiples you have to monitor markets to place live bets, as yet there is no freely available autobetting software to enable wider access to placing un-attended bets and this is one reason why I am atempting to develop my own autobot as even the comercial ones are not brilliant. |
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Took a bit of an educated punt on A.P. McCoy to be placed in the 15.25 at Bangor. Targets met up til and including Day 23. Next day of action will be Boxing Day.
Hope everyone has a good xmas and even though there is NFL games played on Christmas Day you can all put the lap tops away for a day to spend with family and friends. Have a great one! |
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Oh so this is going to be an aftertiming thread?
Got ya. |