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spalding2011
11 Dec 11 14:30
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 18 | Blogger: spalding2011's blog
Hi folks,

Enthusiastic first timer on Betfair. Started with £100. Going to try and win 1% every day for two years. Don't want to mention the amount that would turn into incase its jinxed. Never going to risk more than 5% of bank, and daily targets will be small enough in relation to bank so that I never get into trouble. Will probably fail, but gotta try things in life.

Wish me luck
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Report Lori December 11, 2011 7:11 PM GMT
Two poker sites used to pay 10% interest on accounts.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:12 PM GMT
And on that subject, banks, is money safe in them when they award there bosses huge wage increase for screwing up the companies future and the world economies, "hot potatoe".
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:13 PM GMT
lori, poker sites charge 10% for all games so thats not a good example really.
Report Lori December 11, 2011 7:14 PM GMT
They even paid it on winning accounts, Betfair charge 20%+ on winnings so it's a fine example.
Report Lori December 11, 2011 7:15 PM GMT
You could deposit $10000 and play about $100 worth of tourneys per month(paying $10 in rake) and get $1000p.a
Report catflappo December 11, 2011 7:15 PM GMT
Still standing
11 Dec 11 18:34 Joined: 05 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 227 | Blogger: Still standing's blog
4 words, sort of.
Betfair greedy, PC bad

Pc is intended for the data hogs.  Charge them.  Leave 1 click bettors alone.  The 5% commission is what is supposed to pay for company expenses.  BF never contemplated bots and tons of data usage.  Things were fine before the bots.  BF does charge PC to little one finger users like me.  They have to expand their exclusion zone.


The premium charge has nothing to do with bots or data usage which have already been tackled by the transaction and data charges.  Pc is aimed directly at users who pay only a small amount of commission relative to their profit.  Of course, some of these may be bot users.

As someone who is prepared to defend at least the principle of the pc I am disappointed to learn that bff has changed camp again. Wink
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:17 PM GMT
more people win on betfair, a recent report ststrted that in america they only have around 80 professional punters, well considering that legal squash poker sites and betting products other than the senators wallet filling casino giants, betfair has 1o time the aadvantage to gamblers that the american system can offer, pc or no pc pretty impressive stuff by betfair.
Report Lori December 11, 2011 7:21 PM GMT
Americans can't bet on Betfair
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:21 PM GMT
betfair is the fresh air, oxegen rich to gambling online that america is the nerve gas too, if you wqant to observe corporation control that markists wanrded everyone about then cast your eyes across the pond, and no I am not a communist, just a realist.
Report Lori December 11, 2011 7:21 PM GMT
They also have substantially more than 80 pro punters.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:23 PM GMT
They must have more than 80, it was a terrible report, probably payed for by eight-eight-eight the only american betting company to gain exclusive rights to on-line gambling, casino owned of course.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:24 PM GMT
*in the states
Report Methane_Magnet December 11, 2011 7:29 PM GMT
catflaqpo     11 Dec 11 19:15 
As someone who is prepared to defend at least the principle of the pc I am disappointed to learn that bff has changed camp again.


I will never agree with your stance on PC - but you made me laugh with this Laugh
Report top2rated December 11, 2011 7:33 PM GMT
Just need a contribution from FINE AS FROG HAIR now for this thread to be classified as well and truly ****ed up.

Cry
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:34 PM GMT
betfair will never work in the states because the american goverment never asking the public in the first place if there was a problem with online gambling put the ban in place with no public referendum ior concent, meanwhile its common knowledge that for many years big casino giants have blocked every other form of gambling off-track other than there own casinos and even own a lot of the racing tracks they install casino machines in and run it as a poor relation to there casino operations, even sposoring the demise of greyhound racing with there own web-sites taking part in the affiar.

Greed is the enemy of all cultures.
Report top2rated December 11, 2011 7:36 PM GMT
Just spotted frimpong loitering on the Forum.

CryCry
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:36 PM GMT
one hopes that bookmakers are never allowed to sway power in this country the same way as casinos do over there.

power has to lie at the hands of the elected goverment and inline with common policies of fairness.
Report Still standing December 11, 2011 7:37 PM GMT
catflaqpo • December 11, 2011 7:15 PM GMT

The premium charge has nothing to do with bots or data usage which have already been tackled by the transaction and data charges.  Pc is aimed directly at users who pay only a small amount of commission relative to their profit.  Of course, some of these may be bot users.

OK Cat.

Why does The amount a bettor pays matter more then the percentage he pays.  Scrap the ridiculous BF points, everyone pays 5%.  I make 1,000,000, pay 5% or 50,000.  Someone else makes 1,000, pay 50.

We both pay 5%, isn't that fair ?  If the million maker uses way more resources then others, make him pay for the resource usage. This person may be running a 24/7 trading bot.  But, if this person is just a skilled bettor, why should he pay more then 5%.  Just because he paid more ?  Do millionaires pay more for a pizza then someone making considerably less ?  That millionaire will probably be paying more tax to the government, but we're not comparing the same things.  The PC is like a tax on the rich.  Why does that apply to BF ?  The more taxes rich people pay go towards the betterment of society, the PC goes towards BF only.  One day BF will get bitten in the ass for the PC.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:40 PM GMT
perhaps fairness has to be looked at in perspective and relative to the conditions involved, charging is much fairer than banning and the only real alternative to a company that does rely on a fairness ethos to all users.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:42 PM GMT
if you dont win mega-bucks then you get the best deal on the planet in terms of a betting product, if you cream off the revenues then you pay more for your easy-tax free existance in this country as a professional gambler.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:42 PM GMT
seems fair to me.
Report Eddie the eagle December 11, 2011 7:44 PM GMT
Why does The amount a bettor pays matter more then the percentage he pays.  Scrap the ridiculous BF points, everyone pays 5%.  I make 1,000,000, pay 5% or 50,000.  Someone else makes 1,000, pay 50.

SS, I agree with your wievs on PC, but that statement is just ridiculous.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:46 PM GMT
win the lottery in the great usa and straight away you pay 28% tax, over here we are very fair you dont pay on windfalls like gambling, these big bot operators are draining your cash away tax free, money betfair pays to get in the system via multi-million promotions and advertising.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:49 PM GMT
how many bots are able to jump on board hms betfair, tax free operators draining the coffers out of all your accounts, now the tables are turned not just in betfairs favour but via service enrichment and company success back to all customers, case closed on the importance of the correct charging but not case closed on the arguements alas.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 7:50 PM GMT
the arguements will go on and on, no doubt.
Report Still standing December 11, 2011 7:53 PM GMT
Eddie the eagle • December 11, 2011 7:44 PM GMT
Why does The amount a bettor pays matter more then the percentage he pays.  Scrap the ridiculous BF points, everyone pays 5%.  I make 1,000,000, pay 5% or 50,000.  Someone else makes 1,000, pay 50.

SS, I agree with your wievs on PC, but that statement is just ridiculous


Why is that ridiculous ?  Why can't everyone pay 5% ?  The PC is based on how much a person makes, how much he makes shouldn't matter, unless 'he' is really a resource hogging bot.  How about scrapping the PC and going to a sliding scale like income tax.  I believe that is what BF is trying to do with the PC, but their way of figuring it out is way too complicated.
Report catflappo December 11, 2011 8:00 PM GMT
Still Standing,

First of all you must realise that the charging structure is designed to maximise betfair's profits rather than to be fair.  It would be very simple to implement a fair charging system but not without hitting profits. Maximising profits isn't simply charging as much as possible it's about encouraging the kind of activity they make more money out of and discouraging that which they don't.  Hence the commission discount, transaction and data charges, and premium charges. All customers are valuable provided they are paying enough compared to the amount that they take out and the resources they consume.

My second point is that there are different ways of looking at fairness.  Before pc it was possible for player's A and B to both make 100k gross a year with player A paying 60k commission and player B 5k just because of their different styles of betting.  Now it's 60k vs 20k which seems fairer to me.
Report Eddie the eagle December 11, 2011 8:04 PM GMT
SS, it's ridiculous because a flat 5 % commission would drive away Betfairs biggest/best customers.
Report Trader11 December 11, 2011 8:05 PM GMT
Getting back to Spalding... making 1% of $100 is one thing, making 1% of 10K is a very different business.

I struggle to make 3% weekly.
Report Lori December 11, 2011 8:06 PM GMT
It's also still possible for player A to have $1m of bets and player B to have $50k of bets, and both pay the same amount of commission.

I'll always believe in turnover being the measure, not profit. It's not Betfair's business who profits (other than themselves, which is fine obviously)
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 8:06 PM GMT
lets face it, if the marginal excahnge model that we all enjoy has to find some dough to survive, better they take it off the super-rich winners on betfair that dont currently pay a penny in taxes, they can afford it, they could probalby buy us all a cigar on what they have madeWink
Report catflappo December 11, 2011 8:11 PM GMT
Lori, is that what you'd like to see as a user or something that you'd take to the board if you were CEO? (or both [;)])
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 8:11 PM GMT
I bet none of you wont get a christmas card off any of the big winners on betfair even though its all of us that have
made them rich along with betfair supplying the market and services.
Report revengeofpaddy December 11, 2011 8:12 PM GMT
Got to feel sorry for the new lad who's started a thread and you clowns have hijacked it rattling on about pc......again
Report catflappo December 11, 2011 8:12 PM GMT
Wink
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 8:12 PM GMT
Wink
Report Lori December 11, 2011 8:13 PM GMT
Both fwiw.

I believe it's fairer and more obvious.


In terms of how it would impact me, I suspect (assuming they did it to make exactly the same profit they do now, which the wouldn't) I'd be about the same off as I'm in the middle ground of position taking and trading.

It would solve the complaint that betting on longer events with more bets has less commission and would remove the rather arbitary charge currently in place.
Report jimmy69 December 11, 2011 8:13 PM GMT
Get in...
Report Lori December 11, 2011 8:14 PM GMT
When the new lad wins 146 grand and they take 80 of it, he'll be interested in the debate
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 8:14 PM GMT
lol. good point lori, wheres froggy we need his posts to really skyboot this thread lol
Report catflappo December 11, 2011 8:15 PM GMT
I agree it is fairer and more obvious Mr Lori, but we the board want to know how it will benefit us.
Report catflappo December 11, 2011 8:16 PM GMT
I'm not a shareholder btw before anyone asks
Report Lori December 11, 2011 8:16 PM GMT
It'll remove the perception that there are ambiguous/unfair charges if you start winning and it'll create a slightly wider spread for the board to put their own commission free bets in.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 8:16 PM GMT
maybe SS should aim at 2% instead so that he may better pay the mighty rome in taxesWink
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 8:18 PM GMT
to say betair are only nippers in age compared to other firms, they do seem to have everything wrapped up.
Report revengeofpaddy December 11, 2011 8:19 PM GMT
When the new lad wins 146 grand and they take 80 of it, he'll be interested in the debate

Laughfair point but can you see it happening?
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 8:20 PM GMT
just wish this site was as blessed with good data and write-ups as the racing post, surley the racing post is the best web-site for gamblers in terms of product service, i remember buying the first copy all those years ago.
Report catflappo December 11, 2011 8:21 PM GMT
Lori, your fired!
Wink
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 8:21 PM GMT
lol
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 8:22 PM GMT
has FAFH been fired? hes not joined in the great debate?
Report Lori December 11, 2011 8:24 PM GMT
LaughAngry
Report Lori December 11, 2011 8:24 PM GMT
Laugh Angry
Report Lori December 11, 2011 8:24 PM GMT
Laugh Angry
Report Still standing December 11, 2011 8:24 PM GMT
What's the new lad going to do when he loses his first 5% bet ?  Making 1% sounds easy.  It is in fact very easy with a small bankroll, I'm sure all of us hardened veterans can attest to that.  Lose a bet, and let the chasing begin. That's the real challenge.

I'm over and out on the PC debate.
Report Trader11 December 11, 2011 8:28 PM GMT
What's the new lad going to do when he loses his first 5% bet ?  Making 1% sounds easy.  It is in fact very easy with a small bankroll, I'm sure all of us hardened veterans can attest to that.  Lose a bet, and let the chasing begin. That's the real challenge.


Totally agree with Still Standing. Exactly. I lost 4% of my bank today and I'm very mad. Making 3% weekly is quite difficult if you have a 10K bank, let alone a 1% daily.
Report bf_fananatic December 11, 2011 8:34 PM GMT
There are hundreds of websites telling us how easy it is to make massive consistant profits form gambling, they also sell rocking horse chit and geniune santa clause beard clippings by the kilo, look how the internet has blessed us all.
Report spalding2011 December 12, 2011 2:06 AM GMT
I like being called 'the new lad'!!

I have no illusion about how difficult this seemingly impossible quest will be........but then life's difficult in itself
Report catflappo December 12, 2011 8:06 AM GMT
It is difficult because the system can only afford for a small percentage to win, therefore you have to be better than most.
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 11:01 AM GMT
Interesting observation I have made is that the market ladder as desighed by the betfair gods
works in special increments called ticks, now its no coincidence that these ticks are proportional to helping a market so that achieving sub 101 % over-rounds is difficult because the ticks are not small enough to enable closer matching activity, they are more biased at the favourite end of the market where the majority of the money is matched but the ticks are less useful at the other end of the spectrum.

My point being that if your risk betting( no resolved position, pre-result) you not only have
to take into account the commission charge you will be on but also the over-round deviation
plus betfairs cross-matching bot which forces wider margins between lay and back prices and why
it is so difficult sometimes to reach sub 101% over-round.

If your a newbie you may well be 6%-8% out of pocket on average risk bets when combining all
negative forces against you mathmatically.
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 11:16 AM GMT
Another great problem that most punters will be aware of when risk betting based on researching form implied edges is that its so hard to know if any edge yopu percieve is true or false.

To explain this dilema properley lets look at an example, the classic coin flip!

You are offered 2.00 on the outcome of a coin flip, heads or tails, now on betfair this might even be
as low as 1.90(taking into account commission) so straight away yiou are at a disadvantage.

You decide to look at the recent history of the results to find a trend and discover that of the last
100 flips, tails has come out 60 times.You decide that tails looks like a good thing and could have an edge so you decide to back tails for the next 100 flips.

What do you think happens to the account in the next 100 flips as this example fools the punter into thinking he has an edge?
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 11:29 AM GMT
What happens is as simple as this, imagine you have a sequence of data x amount long
the data contains either 1 or 0, equivalent to heads or tails on a coin, over the complete
lenght of x data both 1 and 0 have appeared on average 50% of the time becasue the data is quite long,
in fact as long as a piece of string(Wink)

Now if you take any small length of data say 100 units and discover a bias towards either 1 or 0
you decide to back this result in the next 100 units, what you discover is that the edge was false
because once you take the 100 say units out of the equation that have 60 , 1 results you must be left
with an extra 0 results in the remaining data in the form of natural variation minus bias sequences.

Of course most punters will say , oh my  research is cast iron or my system always works but does it really or has it only in the sequences they have looked at?

So the golden rule if risk betting is that you must find an exotic form and data profiles that escapes market interest unlike conventional form and data compiling that follows the market structure. Also these percieved edges of profit must be true or robust and not false.
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 11:41 AM GMT
most natural variation comes in waves, these waves may not have a defined height or frequencey but they will oscilate between 2 points on average, high and low, and observing any high sequence then observing the next sequence will deliver a low result bias.
Report jimmy69 December 12, 2011 11:42 AM GMT
ffs
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 11:44 AM GMT
IF you get in qick enough on a true bias you can still ride the crest of a waveCool
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 11:53 AM GMT
I sincerley hope jimmy that the ffs that you posted stands for  Frequency Forecasted SystemsWink
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 11:54 AM GMT
or does it stand for the statement that is heard when applying cash into systems based on false trends
Report catflappo December 12, 2011 11:58 AM GMT
Jimmy has summed it up perfectly, you should go and lie down somewhere quiet for a while, bff.
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 12:03 PM GMT
I hope you base your bets on better information than you do diagnosing posters mental and physical health thenCool
Report raspberrybottom December 12, 2011 12:29 PM GMT
See what you've started now, spalding? Grin

Look at still standing's and trader11's posts (some decent advice, sort of).

Good luck with your attempt, anyway.... Happy
Report catflappo December 12, 2011 12:40 PM GMT
It's the best I can do until you are wired into the api. Wink
Report spalding2011 December 12, 2011 1:06 PM GMT
It seems like you guys go into this in a hell of a detail??!! Surely you can do all the modelling and trend analysis that you like, but if you still don't fancy an outcome to happen it wouldn't be wise to plump for that?
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 1:21 PM GMT
Hi spalding2011, I just waanted to bring up the major problem with all risk betting based on historic data which I have explained hopefully so as to be some use for others.

basically without boring everyone with data it boils down to this:

Most percieved edges hover around the 10% mark after charges deducted, most researchers may have noticed higher results but in practice these strike rates come down and lower the effective profit margins to around 10% or even 8% for the average edge.

So if you are up against say 6% loss in markets after charges then if some of your systems shall we call them are true(8%+) some are neutral (-6%) and some are negative=false(-14%) then you have to be very careful of which type of sequence you will return in all the combined types resulting returns.
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 1:35 PM GMT
a logical overview of the average chance of having a positive,negative or neutral retuning system over time will conclude that on average the majority of folk will be betting against the book over-round and charges, or big over-round if using bookmakers.
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 1:37 PM GMT
I can give you an average chance that you will have of being succesful at making above £250,000 in the future.

chance of making plus £250,000 on betfair overtime is 0.01 or 1 in 10,000.
Report greedkillsmybankagain December 12, 2011 1:47 PM GMT
did
u
make
1%
yester
day
?
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 1:50 PM GMT
another major problem with gamling is that it is much easier to be succesful in the very short term then it ever is in the long term so this induces a gambler to focus to much on an individual event!
Report TheMaskedAvenger December 12, 2011 3:51 PM GMT
bf_fananatic 11 Dec 11 19:13 

"lori, poker sites charge 10% for all games so thats not a good example really"

I have heard some stupid, imbecilic, ill informed garbage on here, but that is really up there in the top 3 (or should that be bottom 3) of the lot!

(It can easily be as little as 3% or even less btw)
Report Wicked Whisper December 12, 2011 4:24 PM GMT
Not to mention the ever impressive rakeback deals.
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 4:27 PM GMT
every popker site I have played on, on-line, you have to pay 10% on top of your buy in
£5.00 buy in plus £0.50 charge =£5.50 total, what on earth are you on about?
Report egner December 12, 2011 5:27 PM GMT
good luck spalding.
Report spalding2011 December 12, 2011 5:38 PM GMT
Thank you egner.

Its day 10 (didn't realise the community tab was a forum until the other day).

I am on £110.75 and target was £10.46........in the money!!!!

Just a bit of fun
Report spalding2011 December 12, 2011 5:39 PM GMT
That should read £110.46
Report greedkillsmybankagain December 12, 2011 5:40 PM GMT
does
anyone
have
the
patience
to
win
a
pound
with
a
100
bank
and
then
stop
till
the
next
day?
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 5:56 PM GMT
maybe he is going to fast at 1%/day growth, slow down kid and stop being greedy, try o.1% /day
and give us a chance to win something before you win that much you bring on the wrath of pc4
from the betfair godsCry
Report spalding2011 December 12, 2011 6:15 PM GMT
when you have a full time job and three kids I certainly have the patience, haven't got the time for much more
Report spalding2011 December 12, 2011 6:15 PM GMT
when you have a full time job and three kids I certainly have the patience, haven't got the time for much more
Report bf_fananatic December 12, 2011 7:22 PM GMT
Same with me and many others its finding the time to bet.Betting on betfairs exchange
taxes one great resource besides money and thats time as although you can bet multiples
you have to monitor markets to place live bets, as yet there is no freely available
autobetting software to enable wider access to placing un-attended bets
and this is one reason why I am atempting to develop my own autobot
as even the comercial ones are not brilliant.
Report spalding2011 December 14, 2011 3:39 PM GMT
Took a bit of an educated punt on A.P. McCoy to be placed in the 15.25 at Bangor. Targets met up til and including Day 23. Next day of action will be Boxing Day.

Hope everyone has a good xmas and even though there is NFL games played on Christmas Day you can all put the lap tops away for a day to spend with family and friends.

Have a great one!
Report Wicked Whisper December 14, 2011 4:30 PM GMT
Oh so this is going to be an aftertiming thread?

Got ya.
Report greedkillsmybankagain December 14, 2011 4:39 PM GMT
hanging
offence
is
aftertiming
Report raspberrybottom December 14, 2011 4:43 PM GMT
Spalding, you'll take some stick if you don't post your bets pre-off.

Just the way it is here, mate. Happy
Report spalding2011 December 14, 2011 6:28 PM GMT
raspberrybottom......thanks for the heads up. Much appreciated.

I couldn't really give two toots about stick I might get on here. Just looking for banter, interest, fun and a bit of constructive conversation about all things betting.
Report raspberrybottom December 15, 2011 3:46 PM GMT
Fair play to you! Good luck with this. Happy
Report bf_fananatic December 15, 2011 6:33 PM GMT
Well at least spalding is a realist as it always ilogical to post your selection on a thread pre-off
as if getting a negative run you get a drumming on the thread as well as a beating in the bank, ouch!
Report spalding2011 December 28, 2011 6:11 PM GMT
took a bit of a hit laying Kauto Star in the King George, but made some recovery with Spurs at -1,-1.5 yesterday. Hope everybody had a great xmas
Report spalding2011 December 28, 2011 6:11 PM GMT
took a bit of a hit laying Kauto Star in the King George, but made some recovery with Spurs at -1,-1.5 yesterday. Hope everybody had a great xmas
Report xmoneyx April 15, 2012 1:30 PM BST
racing profit site

http://twitter.com/#!/@racingprofits

says on a win bet---stake 1% bank £200

yet said in 20 days doubled bank winning 5% a day

wouldnt that mean picking a 4/1 shot each day?or three 4/5 shots in a accum?
Report Still standing April 15, 2012 4:50 PM BST
Winning 1% of your total bank while risking 5% of you total bank really means you're winning 20%.  Thats laying a 5 to 1 and winning every day.
Report xmoneyx April 15, 2012 5:35 PM BST
thx
Report raspberrybottom July 12, 2012 9:18 AM BST
Wonder how Spalding's doing?
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