General Betting
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What makes a mug punter?
What makes a mug punter?
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Fulham trading very short for a side that only win away from home in the EPL when there is a Q in the month!
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1) Almost all multiples betting, especially the "fantastic five to win" or whatever nonsense the High Street bookies run every match day. My cousin is always moaning on Facebook about how Big Four Team Whatever let him down. When I told him he was a mug he replied by saying that he'd won x amount the previous month but overall he's surely down a fair bit.
2) Chasing. Better to take a couple of weeks off after a few losses. 3) Betting with your heart rather than your head. Last year my friends husband backed Spurs to beat Real Madrid on aggregate after a 4-0 defeat in the first leg because he had to "have faith in my team." He'd have been better off helping his team by buying some crap from the club shop than give it to a bookie. 4) Betting on the England football team to win a tournament. Similar to above but not only do they always fall short, their prices are usually rubbishas even people who know nothing about footy dash to back them. 5) Most of all, not learning from your mistakes. I've known people persist with the same failed systems which won them a few quid at first but is now costing them a packet, saying that their luck will change soon. Personally for me, I make most of my profit straight betting on politics. A 1/20 shot will never lose there but so many of them always fail in footy. |
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frimpong
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anyone wishing to become a millionaire on betfair must pay over a million to the betfair gods first in charges
That's not true |
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ffs....is bf_fananatic not checking his facts again?
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1) Almost all multiples betting, especially the "fantastic five to win" or whatever nonsense the High Street bookies run every match day. My cousin is always moaning on Facebook about how Big Four Team Whatever let him down. When I told him he was a mug he replied by saying that he'd won x amount the previous month but overall he's surely down a fair bit.
I assume you are referring to big football accumulators which are certainly not a way to profit. They seem recreational. The fact you have to take all the odds from one bookmaker should make that obvious enough. 2) Chasing. Better to take a couple of weeks off after a few losses. I don't see how taking a few weeks off after a few losses is a good idea. Unless you don't have the emotional stability to hand it. You could miss out on the next selection that will rectify your loss by taking weeks off. You have to turn over a lot of selections to keep your averages up. 3) Betting with your heart rather than your head. Last year my friends husband backed Spurs to beat Real Madrid on aggregate after a 4-0 defeat in the first leg because he had to "have faith in my team." He'd have been better off helping his team by buying some crap from the club shop than give it to a bookie. I don't see a problem with this, he clearly wasn't trying to make a profit. There are professionals (of some degree) or recreationals, each are completely valid. When they start conflicting is the real issue. 4) Betting on the England football team to win a tournament. Similar to above but not only do they always fall short, their prices are usually rubbishas even people who know nothing about footy dash to back them. This is pure opinion. 5) Most of all, not learning from your mistakes. I've known people persist with the same failed systems which won them a few quid at first but is now costing them a packet, saying that their luck will change soon. Depends how long the losing run is and if it's a proven edge and if they can figure out why their edge seems to be failing. Personally for me, I make most of my profit straight betting on politics. A 1/20 shot will never lose there but so many of them always fail in footy. Something I have looked at and considered in the past. These really short special bets like oscar winners etc, hardly get turned over. It's like they almost seem obliged to offer a price but they so rarely lose. Might be on to something here. |
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Wicked Whisper
When: 10 Dec 11 22:58 [...] 4) Betting on the England football team to win a tournament. Similar to above but not only do they always fall short, their prices are usually rubbishas even people who know nothing about footy dash to back them. This is pure opinion. [...] That's not opinion, that's right on the button. |
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So it's guaranteed profit to lay England in every tournament they participate in?
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Since 1966 yes
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That's not opinion, that's right on the button.
if everyone backed England - they'd always be favourites. |
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Well only if everyone backed them, otherwise the layers would be out in force.
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THat's what I'm saying.
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A few replies... England very often are favourites or second favourites in most tournaments. In 2010 England were second favourites after Spain, the current European champions, despite England not having won a trophy or reached a final in nearly half a century. That does suggest that people are backing with their heart and also that laying England is a smart move.
Backing Spurs to overturn a 4 goal deficit against Real Madrid for "recreational" reasons. Recreation for me is for fun and I don't see anything fun about handing my hard earned cash to a bookie. I don't bet to have fun, I bet to win money. Regarding the specials. I copy pasted all the election odds from ladbrokes the day before the last UK election for subsequent study. 650 constituencies and the worst odds that got turned over were 1/12 in Montgomery, followed by 1/7 in Belfast East. (My friend actually had the winner in Belfast East backed for £100 @ 100/1.) Every other 1/5 or lower won. These included huge bankers like "the BNP not to win a seat" @1/5. That's out of 650 results. (The Irish election this year was fairly similar.) In contrast, there are 380 results every year in Spain's La Liga for example. Barca or Real both get turned over at least three or four times every season at 1/6 or even 1/8. Hell, even my own team, Valencia were beating Betis 1-0 after 89 minutes and lost 2-1 last weekend. I'll guarantee the odds for a Betis to win were 60/1 or 1.02 to lay yet stuff like that gets turned over a few times every season. The problem with specials bets... low liquidity, often pitiful sums like £250 max winnings and secondly if you bet them consistently and bet nothing else, you will make a profit but will consequently be shut down very quickly. |
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England were not 2nd favs for the 2010 WC . They were 4th at about 10/1, which was too short tbf
Think it was... Spain 7/2 Brazil 11/2 Argentina 6/1 |
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They were second favourites after the draw was made behind Spain. A month before the tournament they'd drifted to third on here behind Spain and Brazil.
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^^ lol probably in England only - across Europe I doubt we were near favourites.
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For World cup 2010, the implied chance of either Holland or Germany winning was lower than the implied chance of England winning a few months before the tournament.
The price for England was almost certainly multiple percentage points out. I didn't bet on it, simply due to the fact that it would have been a long term bet, and tying up capital like that would have a very big opportunity cost. I did have my biggest ever win in the match where England failed to beat Algeria though... acquiesce12 11 Dec 11 01:16 Joined: 27 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 1,423 | Blogger: acquiesce12's blog That's not opinion, that's right on the button. if everyone backed England - they'd always be favourites. Not sure if you're just being facetious, but obviously there are different forces at work. I wouldn't lay England to win the World Cup at odds that are say 5% out for a market that settles in a year, but I would put a big chunk up if they were 20% out. When England play, the ratio of leisure punters to 'pros' becomes very favourable. In summer, during the time that there is no decent football, it becomes doubly difficult to profit, because 1)liquidity is poor 2) the ratio of pros/bots to leisure punters is unfavourable. |
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acquiesce12 15 Dec 11 03:38
^^ lol probably in England only - across Europe I doubt we were near favourites. _______________ are you fishing with that one? |
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If you want to help in becoming the next super-mug punter then read that chaps book on how he gambled
all of berings banks revenues, over a billion on dodgy trades, its a wealth of information on making big bets on losely based edges and then over-staking to flush your capital away, it should put you on the desired path. |
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Anybody who has consistently bet on England in football since Sir Alf Ramsey retired could probably be called a "mug " ?
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@ TheInvestor2 - me facetious? never.
 @Coachbuster - me fishing? never.  |