General Betting
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What makes a mug punter?
What makes a mug punter?
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ok if i forget to type half of words, it's time to take some sleep. Good luck frimpong, there is not one winning strategy, there are an infinities. If you feel comfortable with straight bets, stick to it and check your P/L at the end of season, only this will tell you if you are on the good way
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FINE AS FROG HAIR 08 Dec 11 20:30
Value for money ? Shoot if I approached everything in life like that I'd be forever running around comparing prices. FAFH - I can only assume you were being playful/sarcastic? Running around (compiling or) comparing prices is precisely what the successful on here will do. I don't know how many times I have to say this - all of these threads can be summed up with the following five words: It is all about prices Everything has a price, it doesn't matter if you are backing 1.01's at 1.02 or backing 15.0's at 23.0 or laying at 55's when it should be 95. It doesn't matter if you let those bets run or immediately trade out once the price realigns at the correct level. Doing any of those (i.e. getting on at favourable prices) consistently/persistently - you will win (over time). Backing/Laying "favourable" prices you will win, backing/laying at correct prices - you will lose (to commission) over time, backing/laying at unfavourable prices - you will lose (over time). So getting back to the thread title - a mug punter is (imo) somebody that is not price aware and not price sensitive - they just bet their "fancy" or their "pick" regardless of price. Fancying that Arsenal might beat Everton tomorrow is a mug attitude. They will probably win (they are odds-on to do so) but somebody that is price sensitive would more likely have them as a bet at 1.70+, a lay at 1.50 or less and a leave it well alone at anything in between. It's difficult to fancy Everton but if they were trading at 11.0...... Price is the only thing that matters - maybe not for your tea-bags or a pint - but if you make this game pay you do need to be forever running around comparing prices! |
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Bollox. Everton won't win even if they were 16/1...
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 1.01 landed again Jimmy! |
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Paulme/Paulol/Frimpong,
I once tried to help you (many moons ago) - if you study my current forum name you might be able to work out my old one. What I told you back then was essentially what I have posted at 10.23 (above). Stop, I repeat stop, looking for tips - there is no magic system for making winning selections - nobody can predict the future with any degree of certainty (unless they are a track player playing against an ATR watcher  ). The "tip" above is back Arsenal at 1,70 or lay them at 1.50. If (as is likely) neither of those two scenarios occur - move on - there are thousands of markets. Most of them are absolutely unplayable but there are plenty that will be wrong at one point or another. Stop focussing on tips/outcomes - put some time into studying the markets, how they work, how they move, learn how to compile your own prices (soccer is a relatively easy place to start) - becoming price aware. You won't like it because you won't get to bet as often as you would like - but if you want to turn it around, I think it is the only way. |
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jimmy69 09 Dec 11 10:26
Bollox. Everton won't win even if they were 16/1... Priceless! |
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The winner was ridden by Graham McCourt and trained by Sirrel Griffiths. The pre-race favourite Desert Orchid finished third. With a starting price of 100/1, Norton's Coin became the longest-odds winner in the race's history.
I will never get tired of watching that race - the whole of my local (in Bath) was on E.W. at 200/1 with Korals - a shame there was no BF back then, pretty sure it would have been close to 1000 BSP. Everything has a price. |
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Paulme, you have to decide if you want to win or not. It is possible and furthermore possible by taking pre-event value prices.
Why not just have a go at pricing some two and three-runner events up and betting on whatever you tissue says is value? Forget about who you think will win or want to win. You haven't won by betting your opinion. What do you have to lose? |
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The other comment I'd make about the thread is that all the winners seem to be deceiving themselves over the main reason the mug losers lose to them i.e. that they are chasing and addicted.
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Spot on Methane-Magnet, but luckily that involves work and not just sitting at the pc playing facebook games in between random bets :)
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I prefer the term recreational punter because most people who gamble aren't mugs they just do it for fun.
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THE `MUG PUNTER TERM`
To me is simple, a wise man once said , WHEN YOUR IN A HOLE STOP DIGGING` In other words, If you have a way you select horses and you loose money day in day out THEN YOU ARE A MUG PUNTER.you have to know in this game when to stop doing something that is hurting your betfair acc, or you could look at it another way,If you back horse at say 6/4 or under and you are always throwing your betting slip away,saying WHY OH WAY DID I BACK THAT DONKEY THERE IS ANOTHER £40 down the drain,then you could just lay all your selections that way you would win all the time, you see ever cloud has a sliver lining lol |
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A question the winning punters can ask themselves is: do I give away some of my winnings to gratify some non-pecuniary interest?
This cd be spending time on big or interesting rather than more potentially profitable events or betting so you will be happy w/ the outcome outwith yr profits. I'd guess we'd all admit to some utility value of something other than cash profits. |
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quite simply taking too many risks with your cash, but the biggest mistake is backing short price favorites in tricky races, this is how bookmakers have made their millions, the grand national is a wonderful example, the worlds hardest horse race and sometimes a horse with no real chance of winning like a seven year old with sketchy jumping is made 7/1 favourite, this is what bookmakers dream about.
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one simply must lay the short priced favourites in the grand national, get on my son
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The only good thing about Grand National day (if you are a true pro) - used to be that there was always racing at Suuuuvvall that day. Have to make do with Wolver this year. Bl00dy race planners - clueless!
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who ever the guys are that do the odds compiling for the top five bookmakers must be getting an income from them as they frequently drop a clanger in at a short price and under price certain race favourites, Methane thats bad news no southwell as its well known that wolves is a terrible track but surley must be a good track to lay off certain runners?
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and how often are confirmed runners that do bad on the poly tracks or a/w put it at small odds, another wealth of lays there to be had
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with betfair now we are the bookmakers and the industy tissue prices can only maintain the exchange advantage in our favour, why should high street shops be the only avenue for betting when the people have choices.
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someone once said you can stop a person, nation etc but you cant stop progress in its powerful march, how true.
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the biggest losers in history have been the ones that stood in the way of progress or didnt take progress on.
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Haven't seen anything from Feck for ages
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bf_fananatic• December 10, 2011 12:21 PM GMT
one simply must lay the short priced favourites in the grand national, get on my son |
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Do you do your research before making these statements...I had my first bet on the GN in 1973...and have backed the fav (or jt favs) ever since...and made money would you believe.
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If you had backed all the favs or jt favs since WW2 you would be breaking even...
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fair comment jimmy but how many that won were iffy jumpers or 7 year old, research my posts better
and you will understand that not all favorites are the same, you cant tell me that some favorites are plants because thats what the bookies thrive off and how mugs are made. |
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for example, how many winners have won the race the year before in the last fifty years, and yet you can get some of them at small odds, dont need radar to spot that bookie move, the horses are backed heavily because punters think its easy to pick last years winners when its the only horse they can remember running, the price refects the move of money but not the percieved chance of the runner up 10 pounds and running like a kipper since.
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bookmaking was once the sole practice of the bookmakers but now its better understood by exchange players and betting volumes prove this case.
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you only get a red rum once every hundred years and yet bookmakers prices reckon its much more like
every 12-16 years, the bookies aim to make 50% profit on the national and there crafty bookmaking ensures this is the case plus the race is so bloody hard to win. |
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I don't have time to research all your posts. Just be careful making sweeping statements in future before making assumptions
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Most horse races more than 50% of the money is placed on the favourite in LBO,s so there is a desire to shorten the RSP favourite and misguide the real favourite to win via tissue markets, they make 10% on favourites but rely on bad days wiping out the average high risk bettor in there shops along with a constant drip feed of poor favourite performing simulated racing.
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Jimmy dont back every favourite in the national, try using betfair and laying the bad ones
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I can't change the habit of a lifetime
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Methane - good summary. so it's a case of who can identify the so-called correct prices and those that are "wrong". nothing more, nothing less.
go on, what was your previous username? |
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I dont bet in horse racing that much but it must be relativly easy to create your own tissue prices based on form, jockey, stable and breeding research and make a pretty penny
Most horses lifetime and seasons stats are only a click away on the net. Trading again a brillaint practice on here, gee "this time next year rodney we will all be millionaires" If only this was true |
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anyone wishing to become a millionaire on betfair must pay over a million to the betfair gods first in charges
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mind you delboy never adds "after charges and taxes" when he says his famous cathphrase.
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probably because hes never paid any lol
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Paul - rearrange the letters of my current name
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