Impact of PC3 on winnings

I think it's more likely due to bots getting better.

What did you used to bet on in total goals? That was the first market I tackled on Betfair. Made good money from the end of 2008 to the end of 2009.

Gone up on correct score recently althought I'm not sure it coincides with pc3

@Catflaqpo do you make a profit overall? 

@The Investor,  I used to make loads of money backing and laying 6 and 7 or more goals up to September 2008.   

I think I'll start playing in that market again to see what it's like now.  Not having too much success in the correct score market!

Yes, I haven't noticed any correlation between profit and any of the pc implementations.

For some reason, mine seem to have dropped about 40%

That's incredible Cosmic, that's exaclty when I massively scaled up my total goals betting. I can't help but feel I may have cut you out there

Taking only total goals betting:

2007 avg profit £90 per month
2008 avg profit £870 per month
2009 avg profit £2.3k per month

After that it went downhill rapidly, and from 2010 onwards I've made only a small portion of my overall profit from total goals. On the six and seven goals market you've probably seen those situations where you lay at 35 and after it trades at 80 just before the off.

You'll see if you look now that's completely gone.

I think the main reason 6 and 7 goals became more difficult is the introduction of 5.5 and 6.5 goals blanket coverage, which has caused the arb bots to take notice of price discrepancies in total goals and the bots models take the price discrepancies for those selections into account, whereas previously they didn't seem to bother.

Well I stopped making money on total goals a long time before the 5.5 and 6.5 goals market were introduced.  But yes they'll mess things up.  Although I can now trade between these overs markets and total goals markets.  A very bad idea to do that before the PC since it results in hugely more commission paid.  But now a good idea, especially with this PC3 since I need to pay more in commission as a preference to PC (in order to only pay 40% of total profits rather than 60% when I get to £250,000.  Although think I might be being a tad optimistic ever getting there at this rate.  Lost yet again tonight!)

for a while there was a bot running that would drip money into 6+ and 7+ at stupid prices, £2.50ish at a time iirc.

frankly, I'm not surprised that stopped because it was basically giving money away. and anyone with the gumption to create a bot in the first place will generally also have to sense to shut it down or change it when they see it losing money.

so I doubt that was anything to do with pc.

profits up massively since PC3 introduced. can only assume its cos some big winners went elsewhere leaving the lower ranked guys like me to clean up.

My profits are massively down since the PC3 was introduced!  So I'm guessing it's just statistical happenstance then . . .?   Both for me, and you Lix.

I thought this was going to be a thread about how much it was costing PC3 players, which is a minimum of 33% for me.

Personally, I haven't noticed any changes in how difficult it is to win money period, just Betfair taking a bigger percentage of it.  If you make money from mathematical derivative based market inefficiencies which you appear to, that's less likely to last than making money from knowledge, experience and hard work.  I've found quite a few of them over the years and there's always a stage when they stop working, which can be instantly in some cases or slowly over a period of time in others.

Not sure what you mean by "make money from mathematical derivative based market inefficiencies". The probabilities almost always add up to just above(back) or below(lay) 1!  At least they do when I place my bets which is about 15 mins before the match starts. And that's only televised high profile matches I play in such as the premier league.

It's more the case that the final scores seem to have a natural affinity for for those scorelines which I have a liability (red) and an aversion for those where I would make a profit (green) -- at least in recent months.

correct score  here

Sept -lower than average
Oct - much lower than average
Nov - much higher than average

2010 and 2011 similar year totals

It should not be any more difficult or easy to win on betfair post pc2 implementaion, it will be impossible to net more than 50% of your winnings as charges force profit sharing with the eco-system provider in a fairer regime.Luck will change for many If predicting edges in prices as this is more uncertain than trading and returned BSP is much closer than the 20% better that is claimed by the promotion team of BF as there is a lot of money going on real event winners on betfair markets so there is more sync with idustry prices these days.

Liquidity will be the saving grace for most affected by premium charges and there is no let up in liquidity rising as it has done for many years now so in five years time possible doubling of liquidity over all markets will cancel the pc out for the big players.