Flatcapper's Tipping Record

28th November

Queenies Star 11/2 BOG advised @ 17:50 Wolverhampton (Hills)

Result: Unplaced @ 9/1 SP

Advised: -4pts

E/W: +0.94pts

BSP: -4pts

29th November

Bold Ring 5/1 BOG advised @ 15:20 Lingfield (Hills, Lads, VC)

Result: Unplaced @ 7/1 SP

Advised: -5pts

E/W: -0.06pts

BSP: -5pts

30th November

Mottley Crewe 9/2 BOG advised @ 18:30 Kempton (365, VC)
Sherjawy 12/1 BOG advised @ 19:00 Kempton (365, WH)

1st December

Red Cape 9/2 BOG advised @ 18:30 Wolverhampton (Lad, VC)
Desert Strike 11/1 BOG advised @ 18:30 Wolverhampton (Hills)
Mount Hollow 11/2 BOG advised @ 19:00 Wolverhampton (Hills)

Mottley Crewe unplaced @ 9/2 SP
Sherjawy unplaced @ 20/1 SP

Advised: -7pts

E/W: -2.06pts

BSP: -7pts

Is it a laying service that you hope to be providing ?

Even if it was, I think a bigger sample than 7 bets would be required for confidence.

1st December cont.

Trade Secret 11/1 BOG advised @ 19:00 Wolverhampton (Boyle)

Results:

Red Cape 2nd @ 11/2 SP
Desert Strike 3rd @ 8/1 SP

Mount Hollow unplaced @ 13/2 SP
Trade Secret 3rd @ 15/2 SP

Advised: -11pts

E/W: -1.64pts

BSP: -11pts

Your hitting the prices but not the winners ww . . . sign of a good judge is to splatter the s/p . . . you are doing that.

Good luck.

2nd December

Hurricane Spirit 17/2 BOG advised @ 14:20 Lingfield (VC)

Result:

Hurricane Spirit unplaced @ 16/1 SP


Not much to say on this one, some strong market support throughout the day for numerous horses pushed the price out considerably. Then in the race only a few horses got a true run.

Quite disappointed but I will soldier on, law of averages and whatnot. I'm going to focus more on watching the market concerning the selection before advising a price because there are simply too many drifters and signs of weakness close to the off and if I had not already advised them earlier, I would have been put off completely.

I do realise there isn't going to be long term success if we cannot frequently beat the SP. I am confident in my selection process but market support is often vital and I am going to have to incorporate this more. I was more
afraid of missing a good early price and ended up committing, then watching them drift.

Luckily I don't think anybody would be following these selections at the moment so the only person losing out is me! I will refine this more.

Just a quick update. I have refined the selection process. From now I will be advising bets on the day of race, sometimes as close as 30 mins to the official off time.

The bets will continue to be win only, but will now range from 1-4pts.

I have plugged some serious selection flaws and applying the new approach to the previous picks would have greatly reduced the majority of poor results.

There is likely to be a new tip tomorrow barring any worrying market reports!

There has been what you could consider a worrying report. Hugh Taylor has tipped the selection and it may seem that value has left the building.

1pt Skylla 7/2 BOG advised @ 15:50 Kempton (Lads)


Perhaps next time he won't notice

I think you need to refine the selection process again WW. Maybe 30 mins after the official off time will do the trick.
Perhaps nobody will notice

Maybe you're right, I'll probably just stick with it for now though. Cheers. I may have a selection for Kempton this evenining, I'll keep you posted.

Sorry mate, only yankin your chain. At least you're up front about your aims. Cheers.

2pt Lord Lansing 7/2 SportingBet 16:30 Kempton

Take 3/1 GP if unable to get 7/2

Just can't back a winner at the moment.

Skylla 10/12 @ 11/2 SP
Lord Lansing 3/13 @ 3/1 SP

1pt Maven @ 7/2 GP (Lads)

If given support in to clear favouritism, stick another 0.5pts on.

@ 18:40 Southwell, sorry.

First winner of the thread, lol.

Maven returns at SP GP of 4/1.

So since 'refining':

Advised: +1pt

BSP: +1.5pts

No selection tomorrow.

WW, why do you want to run a tipping service? Many believe that only those who can't make it pay would offer such a service.

I guess I just have a fascination with people like Tom Segal, Henry Rix and Hugh Taylor etc.

I'm being a bit of a fantasist but I see what they have and I say to myself 'I want that too'.

Some early value:

0.5pt Absolute Princess 10/1 GP 15:00 Southwell (Lads)


It's likely I will be picking another selection in this race, but that I will decide tomorrow. This definitely looks like a value bet.

Looks like somebody tipped the selection I had my eye on, which caused the price to crash unexpectedly.

2pt Michaels Nook 9/4 GP @ 15:00 Southwell (General)

It's 15:30 Southwell*

Fell out the stalls, strong finish all things considered.

Absolute Princess 4/6 @ SP 9/1
Michael's Nook 6/14 @ SP 7/4

Advised: -1.5pts
BSP: -1pt

Re. Michael's Nook

What stopped you putting it up a couple of hours earlier when it was twice the price?

By the way, it finished 5th of 13 not 6/14.

Because personally I like to see clear market support, preferably into favouritism. This one jumped too much before I noticed.

2.5pts Dorothys Dancing 9/2 general @ Wolverhampton 15:45

Late speed of veteran The Tatling is enough to edge the race in a photo. I apologise as I jumped the gun a bit on Dorothys Dancing as there was very strong support for Grand Stitch on the off and personally I layed off but I didn't have time to post.

I highly doubt anyone is following so it's no concern at the moment but it makes my record look worse...

Advised: -4pts
BSP: -3.5pt

I may just stop this thread because my bets are normally very close to the off because I believe market support is vital. Obviously I didn't have a very good record anyway up to this point, but the nature of my bets make it bad for tipping.

Apologies to any true followers which is unlikely.

FFS

?

keep going..itl turn for you...

It's not the losses, that happens, it's the the fact that sometime I make my decision literally seconds before the off.

Here's one you can back now.

3pts Global Village 10/3 GP (VC, Lads) 13:30 Southwell

Missed 9/2, 4/1 & 7/2 unfortunately.

2pts Six Wives 6/1 SportingBet 14:30 Southwell

Global Village 1/14 @ 13/8 SP
Six Wives 1/14 @ 7/2 SP

Advised: +18pts
BSP: +14.37

1pt King Of Windsor W/O Emerald Wilderness 4/1 @ 14:10 Lingfield (general)

King Of Windsor 2/9 (W/O Emerald Wilderness) @ SP 9/4

Advised: +17pts
BSP: +14.37pts (no market)

4pts Wreningham 5/2 GP @ 16:50 Wolverhampton (Lads)

Wreningham 2/10 @ 11/8 SP

Advised: +13pts
BSP: +11.37pts

2.5pts Green Earth 7/2 GP (General) @ 16:15 Kempton

Green Earth 1/10 @ 3/1 SP

Advised: +21.75pts
BSP: +19.87pts

whats losers to wins ratio on this thread,
dont forget to add +1
you.
I make mind up just before the off.
good one

2.5pts Gritstone 10/3 @ 14:55 Wolverhampton (Sportingbet)

Gritstone 5/11 @ 7/2 SP

Advised: +19.25pts
BSP: +17.27pts

2pts Avon Supreme 4/1 GP @ 13:40 Lingfield (general)

4pts Shaunas Spirit 11/4 @ 18:50 Kempton (WH, general)

Avon Supreme 8/10 @ 7/2
Shaunas Spirit 3/13 @ 15/8

Advised: +13.25pts
BSP: +11.27pts

Hit a bad patch. Should have some more tomorrow.

2.5pts Lockantanks 11/4 GP @ 14:45 Lingfield (General)

Lockantanks 1/8 @ 5/2 SP

Advised: +20.13pts

BSP: +18.4pts

2pts Hierarch 4/1 GP @ 18:40 Wolverhampton (Board price)

Hierarch 5/13 @ 4/1 SP

Advised: +18.13pts
BSP: +16.4pts

2pts Royal Bajan 3/1 GP @ 14:15 Lingfield (General)

Royal Bajan 1/9 @ 5/2 SP

Advised: +24.13pts
BSP: +22pts

1.5pts Rapid Water 3/1 GP @ 15:45 Lingfield (General)

Rapid Water 9/9 @ 3/1 SP

3.25pts Royal Bajan 2/1 GP @ 15:25 Lingfield (Lads)