General Betting
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is it obvious to me i need to be more disciplined with my bets as all so often i lose my bank. so i have thought of the following as part of an ongoing strategy:
bank £50
-£20 assigned to laying correct scores, 1 at a time, odds max 11.0, to win £2 minimum
-£20 assigned to laying 4 odds-on teams (£5 liability each)
-£5 assigned to a multiple where i pick 2/3 teams i am 'certain' will win
-£5 on a draw no bet on an outsider
is this a good idea to keep my betting under control?
should i consider any other types of bets?
i am not trying to win big just make a steady profit, breaking even would be an achievement tbh
bank £50
-£20 assigned to laying correct scores, 1 at a time, odds max 11.0, to win £2 minimum
-£20 assigned to laying 4 odds-on teams (£5 liability each)
-£5 assigned to a multiple where i pick 2/3 teams i am 'certain' will win
-£5 on a draw no bet on an outsider
is this a good idea to keep my betting under control?
should i consider any other types of bets?
i am not trying to win big just make a steady profit, breaking even would be an achievement tbh
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Your strategy, as described above, is doomed to failure.
1. There is only one way to win on correct scores and it is not your way.
2. Odds on teams have a habit of letting one down.
3. There is nearly always one certainty in a multiple that will let one down.
4. Outsiders are outsiders for a reason and lose more often than not making one a loser in the long term.
I hope this is of assistance.
1. There is only one way to win on correct scores and it is not your way.
2. Odds on teams have a habit of letting one down.
3. There is nearly always one certainty in a multiple that will let one down.
4. Outsiders are outsiders for a reason and lose more often than not making one a loser in the long term.
I hope this is of assistance.
1, 2 and 4 are not doomed to failure. To win you obviously need the skill to find value bets, and that's not easy given Betfair's rather huge commission, but doomed is not the right word imho.
But since I'm such a nice guy I got to warn you about the multiples. Let's say you pay 4.8% commission and let's take Chelsea tomorrow as an example. Chelsea are currently available at 1.26 in the match odds market. With 4.8% commission you really only get 1.2475 though. However if you include Chelsea in a multiple you currently only get 1.23! Let's also say that you combine 5 matches with the same odds as Chelsea. 1.23^5=2.8153 , but you have to commission on that if you win, so you really get only (2.8153-1)*0,952+1=2.7282 I.e. you don't really get even get 1.23, but more like 2.7282^(1/5)=1.2223 Getting that instead of 1.2475 is very bad. In fact it's like paying 14,5% commission! 0.26*.855+1=1.2223 It's hard enough to overcome 4-5%.
But since I'm such a nice guy I got to warn you about the multiples. Let's say you pay 4.8% commission and let's take Chelsea tomorrow as an example. Chelsea are currently available at 1.26 in the match odds market. With 4.8% commission you really only get 1.2475 though. However if you include Chelsea in a multiple you currently only get 1.23! Let's also say that you combine 5 matches with the same odds as Chelsea. 1.23^5=2.8153 , but you have to commission on that if you win, so you really get only (2.8153-1)*0,952+1=2.7282 I.e. you don't really get even get 1.23, but more like 2.7282^(1/5)=1.2223 Getting that instead of 1.2475 is very bad. In fact it's like paying 14,5% commission! 0.26*.855+1=1.2223 It's hard enough to overcome 4-5%.
It will keep your betting under control but hard to see
how you will win money, unless your method of selection
is good. GL though.
how you will win money, unless your method of selection
is good. GL though.
I would say forget the multiples. If you feel the urge to 'have a chance to win big' just back longshots in liquid markets with small spreads, you will get much better value.
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