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VALUE?
VALUE?
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Cooee
Is it code ? I thought it was just shorthand, which most pros would understand without any problem. My problem is that I know little if anything of horse racing speak. |
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This race at W at 7.40 is a mine fieled ...a wild one for me EW
My Kingdom |
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Small cover TOTALY YOURS ew
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It's assuredly short-hand for something Frog. God knows what though. It could just be insiders speak, I guess. Not being in the industry, we wouldn't know! However, I suspect it's probably more somebody being very familiar with his own system and not realising how utterly arcane it is to anyone else...
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Stuffed
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I never did a rating on last race......
If I did...i would NEVER show the points ratings for each horse.... |
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Still waiting for an answer from theonlywayforward to my 17:53 post.
Now I see there's another descriptor, namely BL3. Dare I ask what that refers to? |
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Possibly a rating for RACE TYPE re B= BACK, and L = LAY.......RATING being 3.
No idea really TR2 |
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2 1240 Norther Bay 43 48J/T:0-0-3 0%-0%
5 07x13 Flavia Tatiana 36.5 32.5 35.5J/T:49-49-181 27%-54 9 53232 Key Breeze 34 31.5 31.5J/T:0-2-6 0%-33 12 23025 Melodie D'Amour 31.5 32.5 32.5J/T:3-10-77 4%-17% |
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AB Form HORSE Est 50d
5 515x4 Buccaneer Bob 44 41J/T:2-7-35 6%-26% 1 05x51 Denny Crane 43.5 40.5J/T:1-7-22 5%-36% 2 44345 Elusive Ridge 41.5 40J/T:0-2-9 0%-22% 3 21255 Un Hinged 41 40/T:1-1-2 50%-100% |
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9 11220 Sun Disc 40.5 41J/T:1-1-2 50%-100%
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perhaps we should revert back to hieroglyphics as I feel the urge to just look at the pictures without
the ability to understand the alien like language, please tell me this is not the only way forward! |
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more confusing than an intergalatic spaceports departure monitor screen, which spiral arm are you leading us down?
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8 1421 Elizabeth Coffee 39 37.5/T:8-18-113 7%-23%
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To make matters worse m halford the guy i mentioned earlier in the post trained that winner.His quote was and is still catching.
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I've looked at that quote a number of times and it remains unintelligible to me.
Must be some sort arcane jockey/trainer style of communication. |
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Pretty much every post in this thread remains unintelligible to me. I'm wondering if the dog ate one side of my brain while I wasn't looking.
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I thought I had it for a moment. A couple of posts later and it was gone. The quote completely undid me.
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Yeah, I can't really work that out either. If I've got the gist of it, then I'm not sure why TOWF thought it was such great advice. Must have been a quiet meal too...
Mind you, I'm equally confused by his suggestion that the mention of Wonga was a reference to an actual person... If I can't understand two consecutive posts by the same person, I figure it's something to do with me. If I can't understand ten consecutive posts by the same person, I figure it's definitely something to do with them! |
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theonlywayforward 25 Nov 11 18:04
To me the market has it wrong for the next in wolver. AB Form HORSE Est 50d 5 43333 Poker Hospital 32 30.5/T:1-1-5 20%-40% 2 14812 Adranian 28.5 27.5/T:1-0-3 33%-33% 3 53720 Class Monitor 23 10.5J/T:2-2-13 15%-31% 4 775 Princess Kaiulani 18 16J/T:4-2-24 17%-25% 1 7 Jay Peas Jacko 5 ============================================================= 6.10 Full Result 1st 2 Adranian (IRE) 11-10 F 2nd 1 Jay Peas Jacko 150-1 ============================================================ This was a Claiming Stakes at Class 6 level........with 2 yo horses. The market got it "right" re winner......but totally "wrong" re 2nd ! So for those that say the market is "accurate" in odds at the off........I suggest the market is rarely "accurate" and probably because it/they rely on RATINGS that ignore certain KEY FACTORS relevant to the RACE TYPE/ HORSE INFORMATION. Generally the market gets it "wrong".....but gets their BOOK %s "right"........   |
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Threads always get lost on me when horse racing 'stuff' takes over.
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It was a 2yr old race. Jay Peas Jacko had only run twice before, and only ever over 7 furlongs. At that stage of a horse's development, you often get a race where everything seems to click into place and the horse produces a dramatically improved performance. Given you also had a very small field (which, in my experience, often makes for some strangely run races), 150-1 for Jay Peas was silly and, as DFC says, a great example of the market not having the faintest clue.
Mind you, hindsight tends to be very useful when it comes to determining how you should have bet... |
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Suspect even yersel Trev would recognise that a 2 yo horse can "improve" and when running against horses that have ran umpteen times and failed to win........when it is 150-1 SP......it is a VALUE bet!( to win and in SFC with fav).
I never bet on race....and I know this is aftertiming.....but it highlights just how far out the odds can be due to the source of RATINGS for market makers being "wrong" IMO. theonlywayforward - the horse that finished 2nd ....had ran twice....and not once ( you only show the "7" ....and not the 0 from the first race it ran ). Perhaps you don't believe a "0" is important information....but it is IMO and should be taken into account in rating a horse........or is it just an oversight/typing error??? GL with RATINGS though....we all need a bit of that ! G M the noooooooooooooo |
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GN LB/C.......Time for "kip"!!!!
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Australiaone : Tomorrow I'll check in and perhaps some good soul will have provided an answer to the effect of trading software on obtainable prices.
I'm sure there is a definite answer, I just don't know it. Perhaps there is some other answer accounting for my demise and its not variance or traders. Nice chatting. Good night. GCI? It does sound like you've hit an extended bad run, like a 100 year wave perhaps, but only you will really know. You sound pretty clued up so if you've been doing nothing different than usual, then yes that is one hell of an extended bad run to put down to natural variance, but I would say not impossible and probably a contributory factor at least to the cause. I don't see how traders would affect you? Traders don't exclusively win from position takers, they push prices up and down and win and lose from each other too, not all traders are successful by any means. Some other thoughts : You might have already said, but I'm wondering if liquidity is better or worse than it was say 2 years ago? Do you ask for prices or take them, and are you being undercut any more than 2 years ago? Are larger lumps appearing? Losing a couple of ticks would have a great affect I agree, do you think a fundamental price change might have occurred, i.e. backers are pushing prices in too low or vice versa? That can happen if a couple of big hitters are in competition with each other. |
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The way I see it, is the market is right, but only right overall.
Within the subset of accurate prices are innaccurate prices. If you backed all favourites before commission, you'd breakeven. If you backed all rank outsiders, you'd actually make a small profit. If you look at the strike rates of the various ranked prices, then you would conclude that they are the most accurate indication of a horse's chances. So some conclude it's impossible to make money here, because after commission and various charges, the odds are against you. Yet backers and layers continue to make money (excluding traders from this). Add to this, the degree of variance in prices in the last half hour before the off, and there have to be a myriad of ways to make a profit, even though the overall picture looks breakeven. It's interesting that Dave Nevison does his own ratings, but they are not his own. He uses various racing publications including timeform to arrive at his own market. I think he mentioned a 4% edge! It's interesting that market moves or plunges are more often right than wrong, but when they are wrong, there's oodles of value in the opposition, because punters seem to overreact and drive down the prices of the plunged horses to almost SP prices and even below, and the others are let go to ridiculous prices. |
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The problem with market plunges is that you rarely know whether the odds are tumbling for good reasons (eg, the trainer knows the horse has improved dramatically since its last race, or that it should be perfectly suited to a new surface or trip, and has put out the word) or whether it's mostly because punters are lumping on for no reason other than that everybody else seems to be backing that horse.
If it's the latter then there'll almost certainly be good value available on the other horses. If it's the former, not so much so. |
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FINE AS FROG HAIR 25 Nov 11 21:58
I've looked at that quote a number of times and it remains unintelligible to me. Must be some sort arcane jockey/trainer style of communication. It means when you have achieved what i have from nothing then we will be equal. |
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Value 2.20 newcastle
TAB Form HORSE Est 2 218x1 Celestial Halo 54J/T:36-42-129 28%-60% 4 671x1 Overturn 53J/T:66-85-265 25%-57 1 1x43x Binocular 44J/T:47-34-121 39%-67% 3 x1x77 Kosta Brava 25.5/T:5-15-51 10%-39% 5 09x6x Stormy Weather 22 |
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Which presumably was really meant to infer " Until then you ride my bleedin horses the way I tell you to " ?
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So BINOCULAR has best chance to win..currently 2.08 on BF....so little VALUE IMO
...CELESTIAL HERO .....next..........currently 4.2 on BF....has VALUE ...OVERTURN............next..........currently 3.8 on BF....has VALUE but not as much as CH ...KOSTA BRAVA.........next..........NOT IN TOP 3 RATED SO IGNORE ...STORMY WEATHER......next..........NOT IN TOP 3 RATED SO IGNORE. This is how I interpret your ratings from betting perspective. Small field race...............so pace might be dodgy......Don't like SHAPE OF RACE.......but CELESTIAL HERO....according to your ratings....is the VALUE bet to WIN and to be 2nd in SFC ....... BINOCULAR is the likely winner....but at 2.08.....there is little VALUE after commission.......on a straight WIN bet. However, a SFC with beating CH and a cover SFC beating OT is "VALUE" IMO..... No idea how you have arrived at ratings...that is your secret....and quite rightly so.......but thanks for posting em. Probably the race will be lead by OVERTURN and STORMY WEATHER ......then in closing stages BINOCULAR and CH will overtake them to fight out finish. GL with bets. |
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BTW - BINOCULAR would be my "top rated" one in the above race......and CELESTIAL HERO 2nd TR....etc etc
Most RATING systems would have BINOCULAR or OVERTURN as fav......probably. |
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J/T:36-42-129 28%-60%
=jockey/trainer wins places rides -percentage |
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back at 'fair' price:
1 - 2 60.00 12.00 Back 25-Nov-11 22:14 -12.00 1 - 2 60.00 11.81 Back 25-Nov-11 22:14 -11.81 1 - 2 75.00 2.11 Back 25-Nov-11 22:17 -2.11 lay at ridiculous one: 1 - 2 34.00 160.00 Lay 25-Nov-11 22:17 160.00 can't find that every day though... |
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Add it all up, and taken as a net position, I'm laying a 75 shot at about 29 for £135.
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Trevh, Beat the Overound: You seem to agree that trading does not account for reduced income to non-traders.
There are many traders that lose, presumably, but I suspect that traders as a group are finishing in front. The software can update Betfair odds 15 times a second (I'm told) compared to Betfair's once every 15 seconds, and can fire in bets unnoticeable to the Betfair punter when conditions are optimal, plus other personalised excel features. One thing I do know. If traders are showing a profit, its not other traders who are paying them. That's impossible. |
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Beat the Overound, Cooee: I claim that final odds are reflective of a starter's chances in the long run. eg if a dog starts at 5.0 and it firmed in from 6.0 it will win 20% of its starts. If a dog starts at 5.0 and it blew out from 4.0 it will win 20% of its starts. I think we are in agreement there.
I also claim that if a dog starts at 5.0, and you matched it at 5.0, it doesn't matter whether it blows or firms, it will win 20% of its starts. Hence it doesn't matter if it blows or firms for good or bad reasons. It will win 20% of its starts. I concede, if you know the reason for the price movement, you can exploit it. If you don't know the reason for the price movement, ignore it. To Beat the Overound: when you say "moves or plunges are more often right than wrong" I presume there are many provisos which are obvious. |
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ha. Beautiful.
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YUP 1st and 2nd in market ...with higher odds winning......
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the point of the tread was value!!.
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