without inside knowledge a staking plan is the only way to win on betfair, fact!

you cannot win on here by attempting to pick winners

very gd point bud, mathematiacally ure onto a loser straight away thats why a stakin plan is a must, there must be others out there that have seen the light

value betting is in the eye of the beholder, homework and historical facts are only guides the only way to win consistently without an edge is by bank management, pure and simple

what do you interpret as an edge buddy, and would you say you've ever had one?

I have a plan that i try to stick to as much as possible and it is working for me at the moment. Has been for the past few months but i know that it can all blow up anytime but so far so good. I had a similar plan to the one that im using just now earlier this year which went great for a few months then messed up. Hopefully i can get a longer run of it this time and keep on banking money.
I dont really look at form, just numbers and stake accordingly. But i guess that i am just a lucky mug too.

never had an edge, thot i had came across historical results that didnt reflect the prices on betfar once but that required too much of my time so gave up on it. Not even too sure what an edge is other than inside info cos i think the prices on betfair 99%  of the time are pretty accurate so like i say im not sure

i work on any sport on odds between 1.8 to 3, no homework just led purley by the prices on offer, after that its just sticking to the stakin plan and away we go

i dont know ure plan heed the baw nor do i want to know it but the secret is introducing a saftey net where u split ure losses till u recover them them then continue on as before, try incorporate somethin like that into ure plan and u should be onto a winner if ure halfway there already

Yeah i should look into that treeko, most days are good days but the bad ones tend to be down to my own discipline and not sticking to the plan. I dont win shed loads but its enough to pay my rent at the mo, plan is to bank more money after the new year and step it up a little if i can carry it on but i do need a safety plan just not sure how to implement one.

The old adage is that if something doesn't win on flat bets, then no staking plan will work long term.
I will believe that theory till it is proved conclusively wrong mathematically.
Now maybe in fact it has been proved wrong but, if so, I'm yet to hear or read the proof ( assuming I am even mathematically gifted enough to understand any such proof, if it exists).
The posts to date here do not change my opinion one iota.
Either their underlying selection techniques are resulting in flat bet profits, or they're "chasing" in some subtle sense.
If the former then great, if the latter then disaster beckons.

just to quote a small example of what im talkin about

starting bank 100, u start uf using a martingale type plan

u try to win 2 quid for every bet u place

u go on a losing streak till u have lost say 30% of ure bank

stop what ure doin split that 30% loss into 4 equal debts to recover

u will soon be back where u started as losing streaks between certain price ranges and the way u operate the saftey net ensure u can never go bust

** above is not quite my plan but i thot it was easier to make an example up, the real secret is stopping at a certain percentage loss, breaking it down, recovering it then charging on, ive actually let on more than i meant to as my original question was how many people have had a success using a staking/money management plan

Im a chaser.

thats the beauty bud u can still chase but break the chase down into small chunks till u get back too where u were, if u aint got discipline thenmabye different story but have a think bout what i said and try implement it into ure plan

treeko
Balderdash.
All these fancy ways of subdividing your losses do not hide the fact that you're chasing.
Also you'll end up getting eaten alive by commissions and the bet/lay spreads, if nothing else.

Discipline is something i am working and getting better at its just sometimes i lose it through boredom. I lay my bets and with the odds i do it at it makes it harder i think to try it the way you suggest treeko.

i have 5 seperate banks doin the same thing, never lost a bank yet or even close to it, the worst that can happen is i spend time getting back to where i started but u have ure gd days and bad days, subdividing does work bud just depends how often u do it

it is impossible to have enuff loosing streaks to blow a bank the way i do it, impossible!

I will post back here at the end of January if i am still in profit.

keep ma fingers crossed for u bud, if u lose a big one switch off pc, take dog for a walk or whatever, walkaway cos next time u switch on u will have calmed down and workked out ure strategy for recouparating losses and the most important thing is u will still have money in ure account cos u didnt blow it all chasing, u learn that discipline bud and ure half way there, serious

treeko
Come on sport please be sensible.
Do you really think you are the first person ever to have thought of approaching things in this manner and, more significantly, must in fact be the first and only person in the history of gambling to come up with a guaranteed no lose staking system ?
Are you a "gifted" mathematician of any description ?
It can't be done long term. End of.
Maybe you're on a good streak or something ( they happen of course) but, believe me, you have not found the holy grail of gambling.
Kidding yourself in this manner will do you no good in the final analysis.
For example, have you obtained any sort of large data base of odds and results and run your system through it, randomising the data endlessly ? If not, then you had better start doing it.
For basic starters, you need to do this to get some sort of handle on the size of banks you will need to stay in the game when you inevitably incur long losing streaks.
But also doing this will highlight how accrued commissions will eat you away unless you are getting " value ".

Cheers treeko, all the best with your own plan.

Hehe, I think you should read Schalke's last thread treeko :)

Or to save you the bother, he had about 7 banks used for martingaling losses, and he had a similar level of confidence as you.

treeko : Not even too sure what an edge is other than inside info cos i think the prices on betfair 99%  of the time are pretty accurate so like i say im not sure

An edge is finding a way of positively identifying value and getting matched at that value price. Some punters also have an edge in arbing between markets, usually done with a bot. There's no edge in staking per se, but strict staking is very important.

It seems almost gospel on BF that the prices available for almost every event are 99% accurate. Maybe this makes me an outcast, but I think this is absolute nonsense!

The general (betting) public are much better informed than they used to be, and there are far fewer occasions when value is obvious. Yet to say all the prices are accurate implies there is no value anywhere, and that is just not the case.

You can also think of it as a time-based thing - the prices in most races (even the bigger ones with well-known horses) fluctuate considerably in the hour or so before it starts. Usually this happens without changing ground, formlines, or jockey switches. There is clearly value to be had because any price changes without major influences affecting such a change indicate an inaccurate market.

Agree with the above poster - there is no edge in any staking plan. Your edge comes from being able to spot value (however you do that), and as long as you stake strictly and consistently you should be golden. The reason that 98% lose on here is because 98% of punters are not disciplined or well enough informed to make it pay. This doesn't mean to say it can't be done!

^ And when I say "well enough informed", I don't mean informed by connections. It is perfectly possible to make this game pay by relying on your own opinions and no-one else's. In fact, this is almost certainly the first step on your path to finding your edge. You have to be different from everyone else to see things that they don't in the murky world of value.

The only way of making gambling pay long term is by backing at higher than the true odds should be & laying at shorter-it is as basically simple as that.
Ever more elaborate staking plans will never compensate for the punter who can't do this.

not got time just now but value is in the eye of the beholder im afraid , ones mans value bet is another mans lay price. i aint sayin theres never value which i understand about btw but for me u would need to be born with physic powers to truly be able to identify value betting on a regular basis.

my way is the way forward, it aint martingale or any of the other known staking plans, fyi ive named it the passive aggresive plan all be it should be the other way around but i prefer my way lol

gtg chaps

A meteorologist might be able to prove that the average temperature over mid summer is say 24 degree C in a region and be able to predict with high degrees of accuracy future averages for coming summers(i.e. a 100% book)

But that does not mean there are not hot days and cold days within that average and that someone who understands how cold fronts work can't be more accurate than the meteorologist in their local area for short time periods in certain situations by big margins. 

100% books hide a lot of variation that is not obvious and value / edges exist but in narrow little crevices like gold stuck in a riverbed crack in the bedrock.  Trouble is that in betfair the river is rushing over the rocks hiding the gold and the river bed keeps moving like in a sideways earthquake to the edge is often a moving blurr that you only gat a taste of as you stab you bet into the blurr hoping to nick a bit.

treeko is probably the most dangerous ( to himself that is ) type of punter around.
He really believes he has developed an entirely novel and unique staking plan, that defeats all known mathematical theory out there.
If that ain't arrogance to the point of stupidity, then I'm a pig's ar$se.
Oops perhaps I shouldn't have quite put it that way.

Any method based purely on staking is just a continual bet against the sequence that would blow you out of the water not happening. Think of a rowing boat dodging torpedoes trying to get across the Atlantic. And should you get to the other side you can upgrade to a sailing yacht because you're sure to want to try the return journey...

Alan woods said 'use kelly staking and beat the bookmaker with your edge' - a few million later and I reckon he was right.

treeko - have a look on this forum for some of the musings from the great and mighty zipper.

The man is a legend. He backs certs (actually - he doesn't just back them, he lumps on them, because he has balls of steel!) - when one gets beat, he just lumps even more on the next one. It's foolproof.

Has anyone seen zipper lately?

Treeko - how much are your selections winning to level stakes?

pick a sport you know  alot about,

pick out 1 bet each day your stand out bet, have 1 large bet and thats it.

You'll do your ass trying to pick 8 or 9 winners a day, just back your best bet and wait for tomorrow to do it again???

The answer is no, there are other ways to win on an exchange without inside knowledge, also no stakeplan can protect you long term from operating a loss.

treeko what's your recent profit and loss figures?

I thought I had read some good fiction in my time, but some of the postings on this thread beat it hands down.
Without genuine inside information or having an edge, any steaking plan will just spill and empty the gravy boat completely.

Less than 1.5% on hear make over £15k prophet a year. That says it all really. Are you in the top 99% of peopul on hear? Only you can answer that. Try to do it without deluding yourselves!

I hope this posting enhances your understanding about the way it is!

interesting statistic slicer and very correct statement, IMO one of betfairs biggest hurdles is that the evolution of the betfair exchange model is quite intelligent and thus to win in it you have to have a similar intellectual profile, luckily the general appeal of betfair is good as there prices are far better on average than anyone else but for average new customers venturing into betfair there does need to be better promo videos on how the exchange works and all the advantages, most of the ones I have seen are rather long and tedious and lack the pulling power and attention grabbing that you see on other companies promos, one must remember that betfair should appeal to all customers and not just the top 10% of the class.

Slicer
You are a mathematical genius.
No doubt about it.

slicer if only 1.5% make it pay good on betfair then isnt that better than going for an interview for a 15K per annum job these days when you might only have 0.5% chance of getting the job? also remember that those that win over a year are a dynamic range and some will go out of profit and many new ones come into profit once they find a profitable more of operation. I think you make it sound like a closed shop when the doors are always revolving.

No BF , the basic thrust of any how to betting tutorial ( on BF or anywhere else) should be that if you don't really know or understand exactly why you are betting on a certain event to occur at a certain price, then you shouldn't be betting on it in the first place.
But they're never going to say that on any company business promotion promo are they ?
Wouldn't be at all good for business would it ?
So the promos on here will stay as they are, which is exactly how I ( and probably you in fact) would run the business.
Do NOT scare people away with the mention of difficult to understand, and certainly even more difficult to apply, concepts like price value.
Much better to let people believe that they can martingale or semi-martingale themselves to betting riches.
Just be disciplined and stake intelligently and all will be fine.
Maybe just slip in a few overall bet price parameters and things will be more than OK. They will be foolproof and perfect as the likes of treeko claim.

Slicer how many who post in the P+L thread are in that top 1.5% ?

Sound point FAFH but all companys when trying to sell there product/products/services need to express there advantage to earn sales, merely stating you make busicuits say and you put the biscuit either in your mouth or dunk in sensibly in tea without losing the thing is not going to sell any more biscuits, come on betfair pick up a penguin.

Thank you for your interest in my posting.

Mr Hair- my contacts tell me that there are over 50 applicants for each job vacancy paying 15k a year, so that is very tough anyway. 50% of uner 25 year olds in Spain are unemployed and that stastic is not far away from the UK. I am sorry to have to tell you that being disciplined and having a steaking plan WITHOUT AN EDGE is the path to sleeping on a bench in the park next to Mr Martin Gale!

Mr frimpong- I do not know the answer to that question, but I do know that most of the 1.5% are too busy counting their prophets and working on there edge to post on any forum whatsoever.

I hope this clarifies the matter.

clear. as. mud.

the only advertising prom or slogan that I can remember betfair for is the bsp being %20 better than the bookies and the queens awards for enterprise has been impressive too, to say betfair has a vertiable cartload of advantages over all other betting companies they are not using any of this in there advertising campaigns and I would personally like to see them getting more competitive and less complacent in there advertising.

I do like there choice in the paddy power boss as he will be quite aware of competing with other bookmakers and give betfair some teeth and growl.

Perhaps this will help, Mr frimpong:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0eAMDtuTWg

on average all betfair markets return say 98.5% at market maturity then on average most customers have to pay 5% commission, therefore any stake-plan that you care to mention if used without an edge will generate 93.5% return so this hardly confirms the posters claims that all staking plans win and slicer is quite correct in his statements on the matter, interestingly most prices can vary on average beyond this 6.5% deficit so it highlights the importance of betting at the correct price/value.

I'm strictly a layer on the horses.
95% of my bets are to level stakes,occasionally I dip below my usual stakes.
As to the question of value I generally look for horses with a certain profile.The funny thing is I quite often find these horses can go off at wildly differing prices.Horses with similar profiles can go off at anything from 10 to 90 and when I find those differences I strap my betting boots on and wade in.

A runners price is not just a reflection of its form profile but also a product of the size and strength of the field, thus similar profile runners can have a wide variety of prices dependent on the profile of the competition.

Bf I am well aware of this,I was just trying to point out if you look hard enough there is value still to be found.

I took it that you would know this as your quite pro in your approach, just stating for others benefit really and on this topic I bet you love laying at smaller prices when the filed strength is high(competitive race) although very large fields can be a problem when upsets are more likely through traffic problems and crazy paces.

That happened recently BF.I laid a horse that lost and a week later it was running in exactly the same circumstances but in a more competetive race,strangely enough it was a shorter price.Needless to say it lost again.I wish I could find one like that everyday BF.

ha ha sounded like it was one to wade in on, it amazes me how many good horses when raised into higher class races keep there small price tag and get run out the race, the a-plan which ran a few Saturdays ago was just such a horse, been winning last lot of races and attracted loads of money but against such a high class field it blew all its cylinders and made the perfect lay.

hi folks lots of interesting posts etc just let me clear up a few things

1. my op was about using staking plans and how people find them to use, its pretty unanimous from the posts that the general opinion is there crap, i personally held similar views infact half of them i cant even get my head around

2. im definitely no maths genius no where nr it, wouldnt pretend to be

3. 8 yrs on betfair now, lost few quid over a few yrs not overly much but that was down to luck more than anything else, i well feel as tho ive served my apprenticeship tho and have been refining for a while

4. im a keen sports /politics guy busy with business and family etc but keep abreast of things, certainly dont spend hrs researching thats really how things evolved cos i could never be bothered researching, dealing with prices is a whole lot easier

5. will end this thread here as i actually thought there might have been similar folks out there which was what i was originally asking, discusing the in and outs of my betting habits was deffo not meant to be part of it as i believe thatt should remain private at least as much as the person wants

anyway thanks for the feedback lets hope were all stil here in 8 yrs time to bump this thread :-)