General Betting
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Winners are lucky. Losers are unlucky.
Winners are lucky. Losers are unlucky.
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Replies: 190
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Djokovic will go down because of the aging of his body, nobody can fight that. I pray God to leave me some more years before i have Alzheimer's disease, so i can keep a good level !
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abolo
I agree that no gambler can beat a general health driven mental deterioration. But again,that's not what we are really talking about here is it ? Investor Perhaps the WB of betting ? Of all the markets out there to try to make money in, you would have to say that the sports betting one is probably the closest to being the least efficient one in fact ? |
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FINE AS FROG HAIR
24 Nov 11 18:13 abolo I agree that no gambler can beat a general health driven mental deterioration. But again,that's not what we are really talking about here is it ? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- True, but i thought it was a basic information important to give to the novice punters on the General Betting forum. Sorry for trolling and good luck ;) |
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FAFH : What about if you know you have an edge ( that is winning over a long time after comm. at flat stakes) but don't understand or know why the edge persists ?
Surely it isn't because you're just smarter or more industrious than the whole gambling community out there ? When I first started in the football markets I made money every month but wasn't sure exactly why. That made me analyse more and more, and only after reviewing and studying my stats did the edge become apparent. I now believe that it's essential to know why you're making money, not only to develop the method further but also for the peace of mind of knowing that it's not just luck. |
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well played Investor -52 takes some doing.
My record is 47 in 2009 , and have come no where close to that since ha. |
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Give an equal amount of starting capital to the likes of Contrarian, Investor, Catflapqo et al ( apologies to those not mentioned here) and give the same to the likes of Paulme, Schalke ( apologies to those mentioned here), and I will guarantee you that over a reasonably large sample of events the former group of players will be streets ahead of the latter.
completely game for this if people had to post up bets pre off. |
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im not sure traditional punting is how those people operate, however.
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Well trevh, I can categorically say that I was not able to make money from football markets from day one.
Now I can only make money from them and no others. Go figure. |
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Coach
Also Investor quite rightly states that the mere fact that he was able to make money each and every week was proof positive that he wasn't pushing the envelope far enough and was leaving a lot on the table. That's quite an important point imv. No matter what or how good your system is, there is a large degree of randomness involved which really should not be capable of being neatly bottled up productively into relatively short term betting periods. Of course for the likes of Contrarian who apparently trades sometimes an amazingly couple of hundred times in a 90 minute football game, this observation probably does not apply so much. I would like to know if Contrarian for example wins every week or month. He might just do, if he can get on enough games. |
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FAFH -you are correct
Someone like Contrarian who churns over the same market time and time again during 90 mins (?) will almost certainly make a week on week profit . My betting is much different now ,which means i can have a very good week and 5 or 6 poor ones . Having said that ,a winning week is only a winning week really after you have covered commission and living expenses  |
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FAFH backing down now?
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That's a good point FAFH. I have a massive edge on ze horses and it's been going for at least the last 6 years, and to me it's pretty obvious yet it continues to rake it in.
Tbh with BSP and BOG it's only getting better.  |
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Yeah it's quite amazing in all areas of life how things can be so obvious to a very few, and so invisible to most.
Your horsey edge sounds like a licence to print money. But it will remain well out of my reach as the geegees are something I have never been able to fathom the complexities of. All those different classes, different weights, handicaps, distances, turf conditions, riding strategies, weather conditions. The list of variables is numbingly long and tbh totally unfathomable. |
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Sometimes I think if you weren't born with a parent or close relative who took you to the races early on in your life, and clearly explained a few of the basics, then you're probably never going to get into it as either a sport to watch or to gamble on.
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I have had one losing month in six years. I am not the lucky one out of a million bot operators, what I do has a very small edge to it which wins over the long term. For now. It may vanish at any time just like any edge on here.
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A million bot operators ?
Really ? |
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FAFH?
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You think I'm the consolidation of a million bots ?
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FAFH got a couple of things to ask you if you don't mind buddy...
firstly, why did you name me and Schalke on that list? |
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Because quite simply you do not post in a manner that would indicate that you know how to win long term in the gambling arena.
I apologize if I have gotten this wrong and in fact you do. If so, then please just start posting in a manner more indicative of this and all will be hunky dory eh ? |
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fair play.
my second thing is, i would love to take on any "big hitter" (contrarian, bayes, investor) in a tip off and i disagree that they would, over time, be ahead. i think it's more down to betting style. your thoughts? |
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Yes you could probably be right in terms of a pure tipping compo.
But that is not what pro betting is all about, is it ? |
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exactly
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Someone who is a long term loser is not going to beat a long term winner in a tipping contest of any meaningful duration
Unless the winner is only winning with fast pics or some other non skill based edge Well they could win , but you would certainly not price it up anywhere near evens |
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1.2 contrarian 4 frimpong
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ill
take all i can at 1.2 please |
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Well if Contrarian and frimpong were to enter in a tipping competition, Contrarian would have to write some software to post bets to the forum thread when they are submitted
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I think many long time winners here are using trading techniques which dont necessitate to guess who will win the match in the end. it's at least true for tennis, don't know for other sports.
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They still need to know when the players are value, and presumably start with a value pick pre match and take it from there
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I traded on Murray Ferrer this week. If i was in a tipping comp, i would have tipped Murray. Result, Murray lost in straight sets, but i won money on the match, because i followed some trading routines which work indepently of the final result. Odds are moving very quickly in tennis, you can win (or lose) a fortune in 5 minutes.
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* independently
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abolo
Most posters seem to be indicating that the only way you can make money on tennis is by trading in-play. In fact I've yet to read a post on here claiming pre-match value picking success on tennis. Are there posters on the tennis forum claiming to be able to pick winners at a strike rate greater than the avg. odds obtained ? Must be psychics if they are ? |
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I'm sure there are plenty as with any sport
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FINE AS FROG HAIR
24 Nov 11 22:56 Joined: 12 Mar 07 | Topic/replies: 4,302 | Blogger: FINE AS FROG HAIR's blog A million bot operators ? Really ? No, which is my point. |
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tober
You would think and hope so tober. But I have a feeling that " individual" sports like tennis, involving literally one-off face to face personal elimination confrontations all the time, prove to be more , or perhaps even too, difficult to forecast over time. Also tennis results turn literally on one or two key in play moments, eg close line calls, key double faults, injury flareups etc etc, thus I wonder if you can only win if you are following each match very closely in play. I dn't think team sports are quite as fickle or unpredictable. For sure they have their key in play moments too, but not in quite the same critical influential manner as they occur seemingly more ften han not in tennis. |
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cat
Fair enough I get what you mean now. But whilst on this point what would you think is the ratio of successful bot operators to unsuccessful ones ? Much, much higher than in the manual operator arena I would suspect. |
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I doubt there are many unsuccessful bot operators. Those who have devised a bot will have a more business like attitude towards losing money than recreational punters and obsessive wannabes and reach for the "off" button before too long.
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Particular moments of luck, net cords etc are not important in compiling odds as they will be just as likely to happen for or against.
The main factor in calculating odds will be the abilty of the players in relation to each other, other things can be considered such as likely motivation, playing surface, recent injuries, H2H, it can all be factored in. The Fact is though the market may be correct, on average , over the long term,at starting prices, it is still wrong for a huge proportion of the time it is open before the start. Look at tonight's match, Ferrer v Berdych: [i]Berdych has been matched at all odds between 1.67 and 2.24[/i]!! .Maybe he will go off at 2.08 and maybe the market will be right about that if so . But there is no way in the world that the market had been right the whole time since it opened ! What on earth can possibly have happened, in the 24 hrs before the match, to make all those different prices correct at any given moment? I don't know enough about Tennis to say what his true odds are , but people who do will surely have got matched at odds they consider value across that huge spread of odds. If that is typical of how tennis goes pre match then it must be one of the easiest sports to win on pre match for those with good compiling skills. |
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All good stuff tober.
That pre-match odds variation on the Ferrer/Berdych match is huge. I find it hard to believe that it would be the norm for the majority of matches over the year though. It probably all boils down to being truly selective and patient for the occasional good betting opportunities to arise as in all sports. But I still remain inherently wary and suspicious of the enormous performance inconsistencies in individual sports, due to unknown " personal " factors concering the players bodies and minds. |
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Cat
As a matter of general interest, do you feel you could now make money without the aid of a bot ? Is your edge totally dependent on being able to bot up, or does the botting up just make it less painful/boring to apply ? |