DO NOT do this.

Every new Betfair member has to undergo this unnerving initiation process at least once before they even begin to understand chance and probability in the real world. Strange but true.

ok thanks

Horse racing can be so brutal In running!!! You must have a plan and stick to it.

To succeed with in play racing you must be on the course with a very strong signal.

The people who are successful on here are not those that have learned how to win they are those that have learned how to lose.

Many lose on here due to the fact they want to win far too much on a regular basis .

Start with a bank of 1k and try to win a measly 10% each month  ( very low for some on here !) compounding , after 3 years your bank will have risen to over 30k ..

Find an edge , stick to it NO MATTER WHAT .

small and often is the only way on here

GOOD LUCK

You only have to look at the Undern thread for a prime example of how not to bet on here, although many fall into this mindset.

Whilst everything is going well it is perceived that it is all your own doing, you are an uber-trader with faultless choices and you are happy.

You then make a small loss and you do not like this and think it must be a small glitch, a quick scale up of the stakes and you'll have it back in no time.  You lose a few more and now you are annoyed also.

It is now a bad run and you start to blame fate and luck for the losses - you chase to extremes as the chemicals in your brain take over.

You then finally stop and decide that it was your fault and you must have done some selections wrong for some reason, but you will not chose these wrong bets again.

You start off slowly again and start to win a few, then you hit the losing bets which will always come, but you get angry again and think it's not fair and it's not down to you... must be something else 'cos i'm the uber-trader/bettor.

And repeat.  It's all there in black and white on the 100k challenge thread.

But the truth is, guesswork will always produce these good long runs and then bad long runs mixed with smaller runs of both.

The winning runs were nothing to do with you being an uber-trader, and the bad runs are nothing to do with errors or luck against you - it's simply roulette/chance.  You need an edge to keep going long-term.

If you have an all red position then having a bet on that market can be advantageous, but as others have pointed out you can't overstake.

Look at the red figure next to the outcome you don't want and imagine losing it. If that makes you feel uncomfortable then maybe you are overstaking.

Do not use this strategy of laying horses that according to its odds looks like will not win.

This is the sole strategy of most of the people laying on this site.

Particulary the 'Lay 0-0/Unquoted ' on the football.

take up darts lol

Throw Enough Darts

was good for me!

Print off Angry Monkey's post 21 Nov 11 20:35

and put it on the wall above your monitor.

Read it every day.

raspberrybottom Joined: 24 Sep 05
Replies: 1714 22 Nov 11 09:40   
Throw Enough Darts

was good for me!


me too......the more "guesses" i make the better.

..with a bit of maths thrown in of course

You only have to look at the Undern thread for a prime example of how not to bet on here, although many fall into this mindset.

Whilst everything is going well it is perceived that it is all your own doing, you are an uber-trader with faultless choices and you are happy.

You then make a small loss and you do not like this and think it must be a small glitch, a quick scale up of the stakes and you'll have it back in no time.  You lose a few more and now you are annoyed also.

It is now a bad run and you start to blame fate and luck for the losses - you chase to extremes as the chemicals in your brain take over.

You then finally stop and decide that it was your fault and you must have done some selections wrong for some reason, but you will not chose these wrong bets again.

You start off slowly again and start to win a few, then you hit the losing bets which will always come, but you get angry again and think it's not fair and it's not down to you... must be something else 'cos i'm the uber-trader/bettor.

And repeat.  It's all there in black and white on the 100k challenge thread.

But the truth is, guesswork will always produce these good long runs and then bad long runs mixed with smaller runs of both.

The winning runs were nothing to do with you being an uber-trader, and the bad runs are nothing to do with errors or luck against you - it's simply roulette/chance.  You need an edge to keep going long-term.

interesting post. so does anyone win on here

Thanks to all who commented. Specially Angry Monkey and Zealot.

However, Zealot, if you are reading this, I would like to point out that it is true what you said about the 1K bank and 10% monthly (or 3% weekly), this is currently my plan (0.5% per day), not everyday I can achieve that, it is difficult. Having said that, you must be aware that if you reach 20K or so, it is not that easy to keep making 10% a month. Why?? Liquidity. You will need to place huge bets (or trades) to achieve your %.
I believe that if you are good (and lucky) enough to reach a big bank like 20K, there will be a top or maximum that you will be able to win per day or week or month.

Feel free to comment or prove me wrong.

Following my (long winded) post, when I mentioned the chemicals in the brain, it is probably important to highlight this further.

Many will already be aware of this fact, but some will undoubtedly be new to this betting lark and should probably be made aware to help them understand and realise some of the detrimental effects of gambling and/or the chase demon.

There have been studies done concerning the state of mind of a gambler during good and bad run and the chase/tilt scenario.  These are readily 'googleable' and should be noted.

You can often plod away (you see it on these threads time after time), strictly and progressively making a few quid here and there, impressively taking a modest bank to an implausibly high percentage increase in a short time (or even over much longer) then once a few hits come you get angry an lose control, you want it back - NOW!

The thing is, you know you are overstaking, you can see yourself doing it, you know that the percentage liabilities are all over the place, but you can't stop.  Well it's because your brain is producing chemicals that cloud your judgement and hinder your decision making.

To be technical, apparently you have depleted your serotonin levels which is used to control impulses among other things, and combines with the release of other chemicals proving a potent force that you cannot fight and hence you "do your conkers in".

This is where the "turn off your computer and walk away" advice comes in.  Of course it is already too late and you don't want to turn it off, you want your money back, because the chase demon is out of bed and having a rave in your head.

This is where more mechanical buffers are useful, like stop-loss settings, deposit limits and liability cut offs etc.  Let the software take the fallible human aspect out of it.

When you have been betting for £6 a pop for the last 20 days, and you drop £48 in a few bets, ask yourself - "why have I just made a bet for £150???" You could take it steady and spend a couple of days on about 8 bets and be back whilst protecting your bank, but no, you are not yourself anymore and you are in trouble.

Great posts from you Angel Monkey. This could be 1 of ther great threads on the forum

Motto ?
Do not gamble whilst under the influence of chemical substances.

Angry Monkey, I agree with your first post but not your second. The chemical theory is interesting, but also largely nonsense, the sort of thing I'd expect from publicly funded quangos. If it were the case, nobody would ever handle depressing downturns, but they do simply with the power of thought - the seeds of thought create everything we are.

This reminds me of depressed people who go to their doctor only to be prescribed anti depressant drugs, the easiest way to get rid of the patient. In reality very few depressions are organic, most are mental, and drugs do nothing but zombify, the underlying cause remaining untreated. No wonder so many live on the drugs for years and become addicted to the zombification.

Depression is a self perpetuating negative state of mind - the more negative you think the more depressed you feel - the more depressed you feel the more negative you think, and on and on. The initial cause is usually forms of pity - self pity, pity for others etc, maybe following a life changing event such as divorce etc.

I studied this at great length because I used to suffer badly but refused to take drugs, but I realise many will think I'm talking crap. :)

Anyway, drifting off topic there, but I agree with you about the chase demon destroying many punters chances of success.

Angry Monkey,are you a Mad Monkey or should i say, Cemical Alli disorder, have you tried getting help, you sound like a loon who's loosing his a amino assets.

Hi there Trevh. I know what you are saying but with depression there is a chemical imbalance in the brain, and the drugs are supposed to actively attack this actual imbalance.

I do agree that the drugs don't address the root cause of depression which is brought on by your thoughts and cognitive behavioural therapy would be the best approach for dealing with this, but some people with severe depression aren't prepared to go down the CBT approach, probably learned helplessness, so how do you treat them.

As for whether docs are too keen to prescribe drugs rather than something like CBT I don't know, but the NHS's priority is giving quick fix solutions so it wouldn't suprise me.

Cognitive behavioral therapy.........I think thats talking to the person? Be wary of posters who use fancy buzz words in order to look clever, they probably need psychiatric help, no come to think of it they don't! What they really need is cognitive behavioral therapy

the fact it takes 7 days to increase your loss limit on here is good as it gives the chasing devil chance to wither and die

Hello there No moves, you seem to have an axe to grind. Couple of things, i'm not concerned about trying to look intelligent. Intelligence is not the be all and end all for me, plus trying to look intelligent to a load of strangers on a forum who i'll never meet. I can't quite see the point.

Not sure what you are warning people of though, do you perceive yourself as some kind of educator for other forum members? Anyway good luck and i do hope to read more productive positive posts from you in the future.

I've found the best way to handle larger than usual losses is to deal with both wins and losses in the same way. In other words, don't get too smug when you've won and there are times when you should admit to yourself that there was a lot of luck involved (that deflected last minute winner against the run of play) in the winning bet.

On the other hand, don't get too down on yourself or blame ill fortune after a disappointing, and unexpected, loss. Remind yourself how lucky you were the previous day/week and move on (providing you still have some cash left!).

You weren't as smart as you thought you were when the first bet landed; nor were you as idiotic as you felt after the second bet lost.

Although much easier said than done, being philosphical is the best way to deal with success and failure in the long-term.

What about the highs and lows in life? Isn't that life itself? Just being philosophical.

Hi Trev, I don't agree. And actually, i'm not sure you can disagree.

There might be a debate (?) regarding which specific chemicals are being depleted or increased in the brain whilst experiencing gambling losses, but no one can deny that when the chase demon comes as we go on tilt we change and we get angry/annoyed etc.

We as humans are all about chemicals.  We are made of them, need them and are controlled by them.  Laughter produces chemicals - these can even numb pain as they attach themselves to the receptors etc.

When we become upset at losses (big or small, depending on the person) we can lose control of our emotions and begin to respect the money less, making irrational bets, often increasing bet size.

My point is, you (probably) can't fight these chemicals and emotions, they are already there by that time.  You have to have mechanical measures in place that over ride your impulses, as well as walking away and taking time off.

Better to have half a bank left to recover when you have calmed down than no bank as your tried to get it all back on tilt.


p.s. there are a lot of views but few posts.  I'm sure that some will have valuable input that can help the rest of us on how you control yourself?  Or even some horror stories to read when you feel that you are about to tilt might help to put you off and take time off.  Worth a try...

I gotta agree with Trev - I think the chemicals treat only the symptoms but if you actually want to treat the root cause  - which is often far more difficult - no chemicals are required.

I think we are getting mixed up here.

We have ascertained that there are chemicals, and that they do cloud our judgement and alter our behaviour. Everyone knows this.

I'm simply stating that it happens and we either need to avoid it or deal with it by getting away from the betting before it's too late.