Is there currently really any KISS method of successfully gambling ?

Putting my cards on the table on this one, I think that there are some very quite simple ways to make money from betting currently, which are not just the result of fleecing the uninitiated.
I think that in their desire to cover too many markets simultaneously, the various professional odds compilers out there are making lots of mistakes and are quite regularly leaving gaping holes to be exploited.
Imo if you conversely specialise, and limit your betting turnover in terms of frequency ( but not necessarily in size) you can take profitable advantage of the popular counter approach of betting acroos the board on many events.

I can confirm there is definitely one KISS method still out there that I am aware of.

You don't need to be a software wizard either. Just sort out your spec & get someone else to do the leg work.

But apparently you do still need a bot though ?

No Froggy I have never used a bot. I have a couple of databases that help in identifying betting opportunities.

The issue I had with the bots was that there are so many people each trying to shave more & more out of a market. Strategies of this nature are inevitably going to get harder & harder to make money from.

Me too. Join the dinosaurs club.
But is that such a bad thing ?
Sometimes I feel that botting up must be the be all end all, after reading what some seemingly very clever souls write on here.
But I suppose I always eventually come back to my senses, mainly by just thinking about Warren Buffets in the investment world.

Yes that is common in the finance world too. The stategies get too " crowded ".
The margins become infinitessimal and disappear entirely in many moments of one way exiting.

I recall Bayes mentioning something in a thread about the edges getting thinner where the Investor was prepared to go infront of him to take even less. Analysing the minute detail of market movements, fast pic strategies & overreactions in the in play markets are the most open to being exploited, but being open more people jump on the same bandwagon.

I'd rather swim in the other direction and take a clear view on the outcome of a sporting event prior to it taking place. Essentially then all you have to do is not follow the same methods of analysis used by the masses.

Ah I see that you seek the magic bullet for winning that all gamblers seek, well firstly you are looking in the right place as betfair has opened a whole new universe of betting opportunities since its conception and reward for knowledge of form, market movements or just luck are better than anything offered before by a betting firm.

The problem with looking for something that fits the KISS formula and makes a profit is if it points you too a particular sphere of sport or market force then logically the focusing effect will narrow your window of profitable opportunity and also be a well trodden path of others so will respond with a reduction in returned profit percentages.

My advice would be aside from the basic concepts of finding value that adopt the KISS profile is to do in-depth
research in market movements and activity or sports form research, both of which are not simple affairs but will generate vaster profit mass.

This approach will arm you not with one magic bullet but with a whole arsenal of ammunition to let all hell loose
in your fight for survival in the fiscal jungle of the betfair areana, happy hunting.

I'm sure you're right BF, but tbh I have no idea what you're actually saying.

^ Lmao :)


In reply to the opening post though, yes I believe there will always be simple ways to succeed, markets move too much one way or the other at times, then correct, them move again and on and on.

ALL THESE 'bot' & VALUE discussions are bullshit in my opinion.
All you got to need is KNOWLEDGE,EXPERIENCE and a decent strategy to achieve..

.. the statistics comes after.

BF_Fan, once the work has been done on the db, it's then that the KISS falls into place. Obviously db gets updated etc etc to account for various changes etc. it's keeping it simple once the groundwork has been done.

Froggy, I think getting value is easier for those who can look at a market and spot it. If you think about it that what must happen in order for the markets to form as accurately as they do. Those that know what they are doing aren't complaining about the bots they are fleecing them left right and centre.

Form means nothing why do you think bookies supply stats for football but dont supply cricuial inplay stats like shots on target and they have these stats as they use runningball

once odds are applied form means nothing

bookiemakers are rich of past performances


how many times have u seen a football team that has form of say wwwwww against a team with ldlll and you look at thier form and there getting hammered each game then they suddenly win form means nothing each game is independent event

That's the first post I've ever seen without a single full stop. :)

Dev never stops. Full or otherwise.

Trev, you haven't been looking hard enough.

Yes Trev, there are loads of them

FROGGY -   have you not found a winning edge yet ?

you seem fairly intelligent imo ---

See what I mean?

you cheeky tw@t

Regarding finding a good edge, given that there is a delay in video and audio sports reporting when supposed as live there must be a pretty penny to be made in in-play betting, the number of horses that sail in during the last 2 furlongs of a horse race and can be snapped up at good odds is bewildering

Taking your andorid phone or iphone trackside and using an inplay betting application must be a winner but do these apps support inplay betting, hmm not sure on that?

Zealot - I am not convinced that intelligence (alone) is a significant requirement. History is littered with people that are today considered to have been geniuses - but quite a few of them still died in misery and poverty from playing roulette!

I know a lot of people that like a bet (some are very successful at it and others are not) but I don't believe intelligence is the major factor that sieves the successful from the unsuccessful. In many cases (imo)  intelligence breeds other "qualities" (or comes coupled with them), that will hinder the path to successful punting - conceit, arrogance, inability to listen, inability to learn from others, inability to learn from own mistakes, inability to accept being wrong, inability to accept a loss, etc.

In fact I know a lot of very intelligent people that I would consider (borderline) problem gamblers for the reasons above. They are used to successfully finding solutions to any barriers/problems in their personal/professional lives, so their intelligence (in other areas) refuses to allow them to accept that in gambling they have found a puzzle/problem that they cannot crack - as such they continue to search and play (and lose).

Obviously intelligence is a factor - just saying that I think it is very over-rated. A bit like assuming that all CEO's or people that have risen to the top of their game must be very intelligent. You only have to look at some of those CEO's or American Presidents or our own Cabinet here in the UK to realise that this is not the case.

That's quite a well known phenomenon Methane. Most people who are really successful businessmen, gamblers, market traders etc. are intelligent, but not stunningly so. They usually have decent IQs (110+) but they definitely don't need to be hitting the 130+ scores that you might expect.

And success at school/university is certainly no indicator. A lot of resourceful bolshy self-motivated (all qualities I'd suggest successful gamblers need!) people just aren't that suited to sitting in a classroom and taking instruction from some nobody appointed by another nobody...

MM
Yes it is generally amazing how quite intelligent people can act extremely unintelligently at times.
However the point of my question was rather more specific I suppose.
More along the lines, does one need to have highly developed computer science skills to be  really competitive now in the betting arenas of the world.
Or is there still room for the dinosaurs of the betting art ?

Good to know that being as thick as **** isn't the thing thats holding me back.

Good post Methane Magnet, a large number of intelligent people don't gamble as they assume its merit and deride its worth selfishly,  common sense though is vastly underestimated and its not the intelligent sector that are the world leaders in business but the ones that use common sense and winning modes of operation that make it, sometimes just being ruthless makes people win, a classic case is Marconi the supposed father of radio, in fact he never invented radio at all but copied the design and work of another that had not bought up the patents and realized its potential.

after he had patented his magic box of tricks he revealed it to the world to be a copy of the work of a British scientist who had made a better design than a continental scientist around the experiment of the reception of a radio wave.

The rest is history, the intelligent men didn't make anything from there pioneering work but the visionary and ruthless minded Marconi made vast riches from it.

The case on having to be intelligent to be successful is therefore now closed.

FINE AS FROG HAIR     18 Nov 11 13:33 
MM
Yes it is generally amazing how quite intelligent people can act extremely unintelligently at times.
However the point of my question was rather more specific I suppose.
More along the lines, does one need to have highly developed computer science skills to be  really competitive now in the betting arenas of the world.
Or is there still room for the dinosaurs of the betting art ?

Hi FAFH - It's very early for you to be about! - I cannot chat at present (racing!) - but in answer to your question (speaking from personal experience) - I struggle to change the batteries in my wireless mouse but I can still make a crust!

Long live the dinosaurs!

Additionally - I would imagine that most of the current economic problems in the world were delivered (no doubt at huge expense) by people that have highly developed computer science skills!

In all seriousness, on here, I think there is a place for both but if I was a computer whizz, I would be much more worried (than a dinosaur would be) about other players or indeed BF themselves replicating my strategy. e.g. The Cross-matcher.

Oh yes Methane. Undoubtedly.   The banks have had some of the biggest computer geniuses in history working for them over the last decade, conjuring up the most fantastically sophisticated formulae to show exactly why the risks the banks were taking on were extremely modest...

And back in the nineties you had Long Term Capital Management. You had some real mathematical brains there. And they almost brought the financial system down then too.

Of course, we could have avoided this by having an interest rate policy that actually works and prevents there from being huge amounts of money sloshing around in the system, but then that's a competely different debate....

Yes MM it is a bit early for me. The cocktail cabinet is still closed.
But I a not entirely vampirish, I do make occasional forays into the daylight world.
Btw I was starting to get a bit concerned by the overall intelligence of your particular posts.
They could perhaps be indicative of a certain lack of betting prowess, if one simplistically interprets the content of one of your recent posts.
But your very last post has set my mind at ease on this point.
You're clearly dumb and good.
Btw does that mousy thing have a battery in it ? I'll have to have a little look one day, if I can manage to not break it trying to open it.

I think we have already established MM is a loser

Jimmy - when they bring in a (retrospective) charge for using the smileys - you will be fecked mate.

P.S. Where is the smiley for "seething"?

I've noticed there's space at the end of the bottom row...I'm on to the case now

Jimmy............This is from the Service Forum:

From 18th November 2011 Betfair will be introducing a Smiley Charge. The Smiley Charge will only apply to a small number of customers (less than 0.1% of our most ignorant and inarticulate customers). The changes can be summarised as follows:

•    Customers will only be subject to Smiley Charges if they satisfy all of the following conditions:

o    Lifetime smileys posted exceed 250,000
o    Lifetime worthwhile, interesting or sensible posts = less than 40% of lifetime smileys posted
o    Posted smileys or clueless comments in more than 1,000 threads

As I said - looks like you are fecked!

1.01 = You checked the service forum

thanks methane

another 1.01 gubbed