My Football Lays.

Not so good today. Amazing the Leeds game, Burnley down to 10 men most of the game, took the lead, then Leeds equalized on the 88th min and finish it off on the 97th FFS!!! I couldn't believe it. Fuming.

The only good thing today is I'm happy with the staking plan, it could have been worst if you think only 50% strike rate today for a total loss of -17.52 pts.


Brighton 4.5 LOST -10.5

Leeds 2.44 LOST -4.32

Leicester 2.54 LOST -4.62

Tranmere 5.70 WON +2.85

Macclesfield 4.90 WON +2.85

Hereford 4.80 LOST -11.4

Aldershot 4.20 WON +4.77

Northampton 6.40 WON +2.85


TOTAL TODAY: -17.52

THREAD TOTAL: +143.32

WON LAYS: 139

LOST LAYS: 52

Some thoughts:

Hard task laying teams! It could be disappointing sometimes.
I still believe that slowly is the way forward.
Like I said before, I do not know if I will be able to make profits long term with this system, but here I'm trying and there will be 2 reasons for which I would quit:

1) If the profit is not worth the time.

2) If bank is busted.


Discipline, long term approach, staking, determination.

I think staking discipline is key, keep liabilities under control, there are good and bad days with any system, long term approach is also key, most punters would be put off by losing days. This kind of gambling could be (or not) profitable, but it takes some determination that most punters just do not have.
All of the above will not assure you anything, but it will help you a lot.

Trevh,

Got you now. I thought you was talking about the day with most loses.
Good comments, thanks.

Here is a summary of the 28 real time days, I have highlighted the periods with maximum lose and maximum earnings.


Day 1) LOST -68 PTS



Day 2) WON +70.31 PTS

Day 3) WON +76.16 PTS

Day 4) WON +16.44 PTS

Day 5) WON +33.33 PTS

Day 6) WON +27.8 PTS

THAT IS THE MAXIMUM JUMP FORWARD, TOTAL: +224



Day 7) LOST -6.19 PTS

Day 8) LOST -64 PTS

Day 9) LOST -30 PTS


THAT IS THE MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN, TOTAL: -100


Day 10) WON +29.4 PTS

Day 11) WON +9.52 PTS

Day 12) WON +33.84 PTS

Day 13) LOST -10.96 PTS

Day 14) LOST -12.48 PTS

Day 15) WON +9.52 PTS

Day 16) WON +4.77 PTS

Day 17) WON +17.14 PTS

Day 18) WON +11.52 PTS

Day 19) LOST -0.92 PTS

Day 20) LOST -38.16 PTS

Day 21) LOST -8.23 PTS

Day 22) WON +19.04 PTS

Day 23) LOST -1.93 PTS

Day 24) WON +25.12 PTS

Day 25) WON +4.77 PTS

Day 26) LOST -6.55 PTS

Day 27) WON +19.95 PTS

Day 28) LOST -17.52

I'm rooting for you T11
"If the profit is not worth the time" when results are poor we all question that one,
focus on the big picture.

Thanks Zapper.

These are the lays for today wednesday, all australian games:


Adelaide 5pts

Gold Coast 3pts

Melbourne Victory 5pts

Betfair has voided the bets on the Hayes and Yeading match from Jan 1st.


Braintree 3.4 LOST -7.2

Alfreton Town 3.25 WON +2.85

Hayes and Yeading 3.35 VOIDED

Adelaide 4.40 LOST -17

Gold Coast 2.94 WON +2.85

Melbourne Victory 5.2 WON +4.77


TOTAL TODAY: -13.73

THREAD TOTAL: +129.59

WON LAYS: 142

LOST LAYS: 54

unlucky. english and elite leagues in europe. best opportunitys for lays.
concentrate knowledge, you will be more successfull.

Saturday 7th:


Darlington 5pts

Stockport 5pts

Hayes and Yeading 3pts

Newport 3pts

Bingo! full house...

Hi and thanks dori and zapper!


Darlington 5.20 WON +4.77

Stockport 4.70 WON +4.77

Hayes and Yeading 6.80 WON +2.85

Newport 7.60 WON +2.85



TOTAL TODAY: +15.24

THREAD TOTAL: +144.83

WON LAYS: 146

LOST LAYS: 54

well done,excellant thread gl

Hi and thanks macrider. At the moment just waiting for some quality matches to get involved.

Trader have just come over from football forum, didn't realise there was general betting forum, would like to follow this

Welcome KJPG

Feel free to roam around this forum, much more healtly and sensible than the football forum.

In regards of this thread, please read it from page 1, so you will get to know what is it about.

Good luck.

Hi Trader, I wanted to congratulate you on a great thread. I've also found you via the Football forum but it's a breath of fresh air to read a civilised and interesting topic. 

FWIW I've been on Betfair for about 2 years and have been dabbling regularly (10+ bets per week) for the past 6 months. It took me a while to realise the value of good analysis and patience, especially I had after some very lucky early results (particularly a 25.0 odds win on Australian Rules football that inflated my ego and - temporarily - my bank balance). After that big win I lost 3/4 of my bank, but then realised that slow, steady gains are the only way to go. I'm still a small time punter but I have a growing bank and I bet for the challenge and fun it provides, not because I expect it will turn me into a millionaire. I celebrate every win of $10. NB that's Aussie dollars, worth about 6 pence ;)

My own staking plan is fairly simple and also quite common. 1-5 pts, where 1 pt = 1% of my bank. Currently 1pt = roughly $9 Aus. I came to realise the true value of staking during the rugby world cup when I had a syndicate with a friend. We both floated $100 at the start of the tournament and bet on about 40 of the total 48 games, with a fixed percentage stake of whatever our bank was. By the final we shared a profit dividend of $125 each. 

But during the RWC tournament we had times when we were up much more than this... Then our bets, despite lengthy analysis and discussion, had losing streaks, and our bank dropped back. If it wasn't for disciplined staking, we could have been losers not winners. A couple of results that were "sure things", including NZ to beat France 12.5+ in the final, just never happened. If not for staking plans that preserved our bank we may not have been ahead. 

I guess what I'm trying to say is I applaud you for your results, and also for sharing it with us. It's not easy to come out ahead consistently, and building a bank is something to be proud of. Whether you do it for fun or for a living, it's a great thing to win more than you lose. 

All the best mate, and I'll follow this thread with interest.  

PS I don't often bet on Aussie soccer (football) but I'd hesitate to lay Melbourne Victory in the next 2 weeks. New manager started today after they sacked the last one. The new guy has a decent pedigree apparently. 

Trader thanks for the welcome and I 2nd the thoughts of Juzzola above, it will be refreshing to read a sensible forum compared to some of the utter rubbish discussed across the way, you discipline and dedication is very admirable. Congrats and keep it going!

hi trader same ere admire the dedication. i have posted on here before saying i used to do something very similar. I started with a £2000 bank placing £100 lays on either teams which i felt just were not going to win or teams wrongly priced up. started in august when footie season began finished at end of october with bank of just over £3000 but for me it was up and down like a yo yo. One weekend won 18/23 lays then only 2/13 lays came in on a midweek fixture list which was pretty gutting. so i moved onto correct score laying which i have had more success at but i might get back into this as your consistently in profit and know your stuff.

How much would i have made with a 2k bank laying £100 a time mate?

keep going

Hi Trader,

A good thread, I used to lay away sides only, a few years aqo (under a different account) using 5 maybe 6 filters.

I made a profit over 500 lays..don't ask how much as I can't remember :), anyway reading your thread has got me thinking in to starting again, don't worry I wont mess up your excellent thread...maybe start one of my own. I put the selections on here mainly for the reason you have...so I would have a record that wouldn't be deleted :D unfortunately I, unlike you had a load of idiots slagging off my picks when the results didn't go as planned...long term profit is the goal not a quick £50 as I used to tell them..in the end the thread was full of idiots so I stopped posting.

Anyways best of luck :D

Hi all,

I will reply to the above posters as soon as I have the time later on today.

I usually do not comment or explain the lays I do, but today I would like to comment on one of the lays, Luton vs Stockport. Odds are quite high on the away side, and I never lay at such odds, but Stockport shocking away form and Luton stunning form, plus the fact that Stockport are having a hard time scoring away from home (only 2 in last 5) make me believe I will risk it and lay Stockport to win just 1 humble point.


Barrow 3pts

Stockport 1pt

smithy91 : How much would i have made with a 2k bank laying £100 a time mate?

That's a lazy question smithy ;)

When I looked at the difference to level stakes earlier in the thread you would have been about 1.5k up laying to return £100 per bet, but the drawdown on page 1 I think would have bankrupted you if you were using those stakes with a 2k bank.

The points profit thing can be confusing, as staking at £1 per point but using say 10 points per bet and winning 10 bets would be described as returning 100 points profit, but in reality it's 10 points profit if you see what I mean.

Nice going

No bets for me last night...2 qualifiers but the price was too high.

Good Luck

juzzola,

Agreed on the small steady profits are the way forward, which doesn't mean at all it is easy task. To achieve that you still need to win your bets.
Having said that, there is a thread on the football forum, they are trying to back many 1.02 bets to make a steady profit, I don't think so.
I monitored several games today, and over 5.5 and over 6.5 got gubbed at 1.01 in the Mallorca match. Don't know if any of those forumites were involved, I'm just saying what happened.

In regards of your staking, I think that 1%=1pt is too high, just a thought. I'm using 0.3%=1pt.

Thank you for your comments on the thread results, just remember it is still very early days and still trying the selection criteria. I want to see if I can reach 1000 lays and be in some worthy profit, say between 500 and 800 points.

And thanks for the tip on the australian team.


KJPG,

Thanks once again, it is good to know that people reads this "experiment" and appreciate the effort and dedication it takes to filter all of the matches.
Start reading threads on the general betting forum, forget about the football forum, plagued of nonsense.


smithy91,

Thank you again. Same comments that above to KJPG, read more in the general betting forum.

It seems to me that you used to lay whatever team you thought wouldn't win without too many filters or selection criteria, and yes, that would be a sure yoyo effect.

How much would i have made with a 2k bank laying £100 a time mate?

You lazy buggar!! Can't you do the maths yourself?? Just kidding, man.

If the value of your 1pt is $100, then you would have made a whooping $14.863

If you want to know exactly what would be your balance if you layed to win $100 on each lay, then you will excuse me, but you need to go all over the thread and calculate that yourself, you have all the odds for all the lays, so you will be able to calculate the liability for each losing lay.

I will have to disagree with Trevh; if you started with a 2K bank and you layed to win $100 everytime, not only you would not have blown your bank at any time, but you would have aprox $7.000 (5K profit) by the 10th day, even after the 3 bad days (Days 7, 8 and 9) in which we had the biggest drawdown. Check my post in this very same page dated 03 Jan 12 02:53. You will see the profits and losses of each and every day since the start of the thread.

Trevh, please correct me if my above calculations are wrong.

The points profit thing can be confusing, as staking at £1 per point but using say 10 points per bet and winning 10 bets would be described as returning 100 points profit, but in reality it's 10 points profit if you see what I mean.

You lost me there. For me 1pt is 1pt whatever value you want to give it $1, $10, $100 and so on.
So, if you lay a team to win 5pts and your 1pts is $10, then you are laying to win $50. I don't find it confussing.


onemanarmy,

Thanks.
Yes, odds were high yesterday.

Good luck to you too.

Barrow 7.0 WON +2.85

Stockport 12.0 WON +0.95



TOTAL TODAY: +3.8

THREAD TOTAL: +148.63

WON LAYS: 148

LOST LAYS: 54

Trader, that's an interesting point you make re: points v staking. I guess the reason my alignment is the way it is has its roots in my early betting activity. After my initial big win I dwindled to about $100 bank and since the minimum bet for Aust Betfair punters is $5, the 5% figure became associated in my head with a stake. As I began to bring my bank back up I have kept the max stake at 5% as the bank has increased. But having said that, I'm quite risk averse and it's rare that I bet more than 3 pts. Usually 2 pts in fact. However what you've said has given me food for thought. Particularly as my betting on the Big Bash cricket has gone from 15-5 to 15-8 W-L during the past few days... Since it's time to reassess my analysis, maybe a good time to look at staking too. BTW good work with your last 2 lays :)

was a very lazy question i must admit but i'm 20 and expect everything on a plate but obviously on here it dosen't work like that you have to work things out for yourself.

Thanks for the figures trader truly incredible profits available.

This leaves me no option but to follow the thread using all your lay selections. My knowledge on english football isn't to bad either so i will be disciplined and throw the odd lay in of my own but don't really need to with the profits on offer. Having done this myself i know there will be losing weeks that's just football but this thread always in the black.

need a staking plan though don't fancy blowing 2 grand in case of a bad start.

might start by laying liverpool at man city 3.85 is a dream. 15 matches at home for city no defeats. keep going trader your doing a great job.

smithy91,

Thanks a lot for the compliments on the thread.
However, your latest post concerned me a bit and I decided to give you some advice.

1st, I was only joking when I called you lazy, it was a playful comment.

And the important thing: PLEASE be aware that my laying system is STILL IN TESTING STAGE!!

Like I said before: just remember it is still very early days and still trying the selection criteria. I want to see if I can reach 1000 lays and be in some worthy profit, say between 500 and 800 points.

Laying on betfair is difficult business and can prove lethal at anytime.

I do not know if future results will be profitable or not, I'm recording the lays on this thread for future perusal and improvements.

If you decide to follow these picks with your money, please use moderate staking!!

BTW, I'm not laying Liverpool today, dodgy game, could go either way.

Regards.

Lay of today wednesday:

Ipswich 3pts

might start by laying liverpool at man city 3.85 is a dream. 15 matches at home for city no defeats. keep going trader your doing a great job.   Seem to remember a 'little' match on Sunday which affected these figures  !!  ??  !!  ??

Ipswich 7.20 WON +2.85



TOTAL TODAY: +2.85

THREAD TOTAL: +151.48

WON LAYS: 149

LOST LAYS: 54

I will have to disagree with Trevh; if you started with a 2K bank and you layed to win $100 everytime, not only you would not have blown your bank at any time, but you would have aprox $7.000 (5K profit) by the 10th day, even after the 3 bad days (Days 7, 8 and 9) in which we had the biggest drawdown. Check my post in this very same page dated 03 Jan 12 02:53. You will see the profits and losses of each and every day since the start of the thread.

Trevh, please correct me if my above calculations are wrong.

T11, apologies, a 2k starting bank would not have bust you are correct. My run down of your results to date show a £1990 profit after 5% commission staking to return £100 per lay, with several large drawdowns the largest of which would have been £943.

-------------------------   ---------------------------

Me :The points profit thing can be confusing, as staking at £1 per point but using say 10 points per bet and winning 10 bets would be described as returning 100 points profit, but in reality it's 10 points profit if you see what I mean.

T11: You lost me there. For me 1pt is 1pt whatever value you want to give it $1, $10, $100 and so on.
So, if you lay a team to win 5pts and your 1pts is $10, then you are laying to win $50. I don't find it confussing.

What I mean by that is that laying to level stakes you're 19.9 points in profit so far, which I think is slightly better than your points total even though your way sounds a lot larger.

For example, If I chose to play with £10 stakes and staked 10 points on each selection (the same as £100 per point) the results would read 10 times the actual amount at 199 points profit so far, £1 per point would show 1990 points profit, which sounds much better but is actually the same as 19.9 points when push comes to shove.

Anyway, the bottom line is you're showing a nice profit so far, GL :)

Trevh,

I never intended to make the profit bigger than it really is, I would be cheating myself. All the lays and odds are right here on the thread for anyone's review.

Since the very beginning I worked with the same staking plan in points, therefore the results are right there, it is up to the reader to give the 1 point the value they wish.

Right now if your point is = $100 then your balance would be +$15.148

If your 1 point is = $10 then your balance would be +$1514.8

You mentioned before about a flat staking to win $100 everytime and I refused to adopt that plan, well you are not the only one to suggest it. As soon as I have the time I will take the time and do the maths from day 1 until now and see what I come up with if laying at level stakes to return $100 per lay.

One more thing, for those asking me if results are with or without commission...

Please, do some homework, if you see that I'm laying a team to win 10 pts and then I show the result as +9.55 it means that YES, ALL RESULTS AND CURRENT BALANCE ARE AFTER COMMISSION.

I know you're not cheating anyone T11, I was merely pointing out in a general manner that points profit can appear larger than they actually are.

When you have time your figure to £100 per lay should be somewhere near the same as mine above : 19.9 points profit (level stakes), which I believe is greater than your variable stakes method even though it sounds like less.

Sorry for late posting, couldn't get to the computer earlier.

3 minutes gone, still 0-0.

Telstar 3pts

Great stuff Trader!

Busy days lately... Made a killing on the championship today, couldn't post them though.

Anyway, couple of lays on the french teams:


Valenciennes 3pts

Toulouse 3pts

well done T11

Hi all,

This is a lenghty post with a lot of information. Those who follow the thread with interest, please read it thoroughly.


Hi Trevh,

Thanks for your feedback, always interesting.

Well, I just finished an excel file to see the profits at Level Stakes, the results to date (Jan 14) are +24.8 points AFTER COMMISSION

Which means that if you lay to win $100 everytime, your profit would be $2480


The results to date at Recommended Stakes are +160.03 points AFTER COMMISSION.


If anyone wants to see the excel file, please send me a private message with your email address and I will send it to you.


IT IS UP TO THE USER WHAT IS THE VALUE OF HIS/HER 1 POINT.

As a guideline, I mentioned before that personally I'm using 0.3% of bank as value for 1 point. Current thread total stands at +160.03 points.

This is a detail of different starting banks, followed by the 0.3% point value for that particular bank and the final balance for that particular starting bank after the 160 points profit:


$100 $0.3 $148

$300 $0.9 $444

$500 $1.5 $740

$1.000 $3 $1480

$2.000 $6 $2960

$3.000 $9 $4440

$5.000 $15 $7400

$10.000 $30 $14800


BANK

Since several people are asking on the forum or by PM about staking, points, losses and profits:

From now on, and to make it easier for everyone, I will keep a record of the thread results, not only in POINTS profit, but also at LEVEL STAKES, and finally using a STARTING BANK OF $5.000 and the value of the 1pt will be 0.3% of bank ($15 to start, to be adjusted after every day starting today).

I do not know until when will I continue posting the system selections, I will stop posting if job takes too much time and quality of picks is not good enough, or I don't have enough time to dedicate to this system (very time consumming), I will stop posting if results are not worth after 1.000 lays.
This system is still being tested, therefore I do not encourage anyone to follow these picks with real money. If you do it, it is up to you. If you win a lot send me some donation


DRAWDOWNS AND UPSWINGS

This is a list of the results of every lay so far.
Here you can see all the drawdowns and upswings at LEVEL STAKES and AFTER COMMISSION.
I think I have tweaked the system enough to avoid large drawdowns like the one mentioned by Trevh, which was 5 lost lays in a row.
Currently we are going thru the largest upswing, 16 won lays in a row. Had several 9 won lays in a row in the past.

-2.4
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-2.4
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-1.72
-1.52
-2.15
-2.2
-1.6
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-1.72
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-2.6
-2.05
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-1.72
0.952
0.952
0.952
-1.88
0.952
-1.42
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-1.98
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-2.4
0.952
-2
-1.36
0.952
0.952
-2
0.952
0.952
0.952
-2.95
0.952
0.952
0.952
-2.2
-2.5
-1.7
-2.1
0.952
-2.85
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-1.82
0.952
0.952
-1.32
0.952
0.952
-1.3
0.952
0.952
-1.66
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-1.66
0.952
0.952
0.952
-2.1
0.952
0.952
-3
0.952
-2.2
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-3.7
0.952
0.952
-2.8
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-3.8
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-4
0.952
0.952
-1.6
0.952
0.952
-4.8
0.952
-2.6
0.952
-1.06
-2.25
0.952
-2.1
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-1.34
0.952
0.952
0.952
-1.96
0.952
0.952
-1.92
0.952
0.952
0.952
-3.1
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-1.76
0.952
-2.45
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
-3.5
-1.44
-1.54
0.952
0.952
-3.8
0.952
0.952
-2.4
0.952
-3.4
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952
0.952




Trevh says:
For example, If I chose to play with £10 stakes and staked 10 points on each selection (the same as £100 per point) the results would read 10 times the actual amount at 199 points profit so far, £1 per point would show 1990 points profit, which sounds much better but is actually the same as 19.9 points when push comes to shove.

It is really confusing and I don't know why you mix £ with points.
In the case you mentioned you can stake 10pts, 100pts or 1000pts, obviously the results will read different. What really matters is the results it shows with my own staking plan and with level stakes, we will obtain 2 very valid different results.
Again, you mix £ with points when they are totally independent values.
Different people will apply different staking plans, giving their 1pt the value they feel comfortable with, or just going with plain and simple level stakes and again deciding the value of their 1pt at level stakes, for example laying to win $10, or $50 or $100 everytime.

Thanks KJPG and Zapper for your comments!


Results of last 2 days:


Telstar 4.70 WON +2.85

Valenciennes 4.60 WON +2.85

Toulouse 7.0 WON +2.85



TOTAL TODAY: +8.55

PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +160.03

PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +24.8

WON LAYS: 152

LOST LAYS: 54

LONGEST LOSING STREAK: 5

LONGEST WINNING STREAK: 16

CURRENT BANK: $7.400

have you worked out if laying to a liability set amount ,would be more or less profitable,instead of 10 quid - say 50 quid loss,so you stake as much/little to loose 50,

is it not worth seeing if this gives better results.

just an idea

I'm not laying to a fixed liability of $10. Please read previous post. I'm laying with a staking plan to win 3pts, 5pts or 10pts.

What you are proposing is a staking plan of fixed liability of $50? Is that correct?

Too many messages asking for the excel file. Please be patient, I will email it to you all. If I can't, then I will try to upload it somewhere to be dowloaded.

If somebody who already got the excel file has a few minutes please send it to mare73@gmail.com

thank you

Today tuesday I'm laying:


Rochdale 3pts

For those who read this thread, I'm busy with work, which means I will still keep posting my selections as usual, but I will not have too much time to make calculations for the thread, the selection process is already very time consumming, so I will keep it simple and with round numbers for easy understanding.

Sorry if it confuses somebody. I made this thread for fun and to try this system, but work is priority.

Therefore, for those who messaged me some time ago asking for a starting bank and a value for 1pt. Once again:

Starting bank is $5000 (5K), and value for 1pt is 0.3% of starting bank = $15.
Feel free to adjust these values to your own bank.

I will not be adjusting the vale of the 1pt day after day like I mentioned in previous post. I don't have the time. I will keep it simple and constant at $15 per point.

Those who prefer Level Stakes can give the 1pt the value they wish, $10, $50, $100, whatever.


TOTAL LAST DAY: +2.85

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +162.88

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +25.75

WON LAYS: 153

LOST LAYS: 54

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7.443

Great work Trader.
Dont always post but following your thread and impressed with your results

Hi Hammerddh,

Thanks for your comments.

Struggling later to find any selections, tempted to throw in a couple of almost qualifiers but will strictly stick to the system. Today I have Maastrich and AGOVV but they don't fit 100% into the selection criteria, will steer clear.

Discipline mate
If they dont fit ignore them and wait for next day.
Thats what will bring in the steady profit

These are the lays for today saturday, few more to come later, lots of selections today:


H Berlin 1pt

Stuttgart 1pt

Millwall 3pts

Brighton 1pt

Bristol 3pts

Portsmouth 3pts

Hull 5pts

Watford 3pts

Walsall 3pts

Tranmere 3pts

Brentford 3pts

Bath City 1pt

Lincoln 1pt

Hayes and Yeading 1pt

Stockport 3pts

Aston Villa 2pts

Port Vale 2 pts

Rochdale 2 pts

Getafe 2pts

Sevilla 2 pts

Correction, still 0-0, Bristol City above should read Doncaster. Sorry.

And there you go, FFS, murphy's law. Upset because 2 days ago I left out 2 teams that "almost" qualified, and they went on to lose; today I stupidily decided to include 5 teams that "almost" qualified, trying to make some extra points, sure enough 3 of them won!!
I know, lack of discipline, lack of patience, greed, you name it.

From this day I will not include any team that is not 100% "layable". If any given day I have to lay 10 teams, then I will, if I have no selections that day, so be it.


H Berlin 3.60 WON +0.952

Stuttgart 5.40 WON +0.952

Millwall 3.6 LOST -7.8

Brighton 3.95 LOST -2.95

Doncaster 4.40 WON +2.85

Portsmouth 5.20 WON +2.85

Hull 4.0 LOST -15

Watford 6.40 WON +2.85

Walsall 5.0 WON +2.85

Tranmere 4.80 WON +2.85

Brentford 5.40 WON +2.85

Bath City 6.40 WON +0.952

Lincoln 5.40 WON +0.952

Hayes and Yeading 6.80 WON +0.952

Stockport 3.60 WON +2.85

Aston Villa 2.88 LOST -3.76

Port Vale 3.95 LOST -5.9

Rochdale 3.05 WON +1.9

Getafe 3.0 LOST -4

Sevilla 3.20 WON +1.9



TOTAL TODAY RS: -9.9

TOTAL TODAY LS: -2

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +153

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +23.75

WON LAYS: 167

LOST LAYS: 60

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7294

Sunday:


Parma 3pts

Catania 3pts

Zaragoza 3pts

Ok, clawed back the losses from yesterday at recommended stakes and made 1 point profit at level stakes.


Parma 3.40 WON +2.85

Catania 6.40 WON +2.85

Zaragoza 4.20 WON +2.85



TOTAL TODAY RS: +8.55

TOTAL TODAY LS: +3

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +161.5

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +26.75

WON LAYS: 170

LOST LAYS: 60

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7422

Nice going Trader, I have started mine again today, 1st lay is Leicester...just writing this and they go 1 up ;)

off to a great start

I think i shall lay Dag&Red tonight depending upon the market. Would this be one for you Trader?

All the best for today.

Hi onemanarmy,

Not the best start, but keep going.


JonHig, yes, I'm laying Dag and Red today.

The staking is very conservative today. Sticking 100% to my system, even to the staking suggestions.


Today lays:


Braintree 1pt

Tamworth 1pt

Dag and Red 1pt

Forest Green 1pt

Sounds like you may be falling into the trap of protecting profits T11 (fear of losing). The main profit of the thread was made in the first few days using your then 10 point stakes. Profit for the last 7 weeks is 10 points, which could have gone either way.

Braintree 8.0 WON +0.952

Tamworth 3.65 WON +0.952

Dag and Red 6.0 WON +0.952

Forest Green 4.40 LOST -3.4




TOTAL TODAY RS: -0.5

TOTAL TODAY LS: -0.5

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +161

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +26.25

WON LAYS: 173

LOST LAYS: 61

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7415

Friday:


Telstar 5pts

Emmen 3pts

Telstar 5.20 WON +4.77

Emmen 5.0 WON +2.85


TOTAL TODAY RS: +7.62

TOTAL TODAY LS: +1.9

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +168.6

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +28.1

WON LAYS: 175

LOST LAYS: 61

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7529

Hi Trevh,

You might be right, I will stick to my 3pts, 5pts, 10pts staking plan.

I think I have been understaking lately.

Saturday,


Wycombe 3pts

Northampton 3pts

Telford 3pts

Newport County 5pts

Tamworth 3pts

Veendam 3pts

Bad day.


Wycombe 5.60 WON +2.85

Northampton 4.80 WON +2.85

Telford 8.0 WON +2.85

Newport County 4.40 LOST -17

Tamworth 3pts 6.40 LOST -15.6

Veendam 6.80 WON +2.85



TOTAL TODAY RS: -21.2

TOTAL TODAY LS: -4.9

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +147.4

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +23.2

WON LAYS: 179

LOST LAYS: 63

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7211

Sunday:


Asteras Tripolis 5pts

Siena 5pts

Novara 5pts

Pacos Ferreira 5pts

Willem II 3pts

Guadalajara 5pts

Bologna 3pts

All lays to win 10 pts:


Coventry

Doncaster

Bury

Unable to make consistent progress lately, wondering if it is worth the time or not.

Latest results:


Asteras Tripolis 6.8 LOST -29

Siena 5.10 WON +4.77

Novara 7.60 WON +4.77

Pacos Ferreira 3.40 LOST -12

Willem II 4.30 WON +2.85

Guadalajara 4.0 WON +4.77

Bologna 10.5 WON +2.85

Coventry 6.0 WON +9.52

Doncaster 6.80 WON +9.52

Bury 7.80 WON +9.52



TOTAL TODAY RS: +7.57

TOTAL TODAY LS: -0.6

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +155

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +22.6

WON LAYS: 187

LOST LAYS: 65

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7325

only you know the answer. calculate hours spent
doing the study and then divide
study hours divide profits = answer

What's the purpose of this? Wouldn't you prefer to keep profitable tips private?

Hi roadrunner46,

Yes, you are right, we will see.


Fortuna1,

I'm sure you haven't read thru the thread, I already explained what is the point of this thread: recording the tips, testing my laying system, exchange ideas and comments with sensible forumites...
And, I do not know if this tips are profitable yet, I want to achieve at least 1000 lays and see the results. Even then, if it is profitable and I post the tips here, why would I keep them private???
It will not change anything if I publish the tips. I don't think it would move odds. And I would put my bets befre posting the tips. No problem for me.
I agree that if you have some system that works for you and by sharig the tips you affect your edge, then yes, you should keep it private, but this is not the case.

Can't you just write them down or something instead of spamming the forum with it?

Lays fiday:


Frankfurt 5pts

Union Berlin 5pts

Roda 3pts

Lays fiday:


Frankfurt 5pts

Union Berlin 5pts

Roda 3pts

fortuna, he's not spamming the forum. What do you think the forum is actually for. He's showing his progress and throughout the thread there has been sensible and reasoned discussions on his progress, tactics and staking.

The only person fu*king up the forum is you.

I'm trying to clean up the forum

ebasson, do not waste your time, just ignore the trolls, it was pretty amazing that the thread wasn't fecked up by one of those already. He is just messing around.
Thanks for your opinion, as usual.

Well, it has been up and down lately, let's see if we can improve this.


Saturday:


Millwall 10pts

Blackpool 5pts

Peterborough 5pts

Stuttgart 5pts

Mainz 5pts

Augsburg 5 pts

Valenciennes 5pts

Lorient 3pts

Nice 5pts

Yeovil 5pts

you're calling me a troll but you're the one starting an attention seeking thread laying teams u know absolutely nothing about

4 hours to go, Nice is no longer a lay. Removed.

H Rostock 5pts

Parma 5pts

Atalanta 5pts

Will update tonight when I have the time.


Today:


Samsunspor 10pts

Cottbus 10pts

Thoughts:

Haven't been able to update results after every day.

Been struggling lately. A bit up, a bit down, pretty much the same level of profits. Only 8 points up in 2 weeks, which is poor, but profit nevertheless.
Long term profitability still to be proved.
This could be a "flat" period or just the normal results.


Frankfurt 5.3 LOST -21

Union Berlin 4.4 WON +4.77

Roda 6.8 WON +2.85

Millwall 5.60 WON +9.52

Blackpool 4.50 LOST -17.5

Peterborough 5.20 WON +4.77

Yeovil 7.80 WON +4.77

Stuttgart 5.0 WON +4.77

Mainz 5.70 WON +4.77

Augsburg 5.60 WON +4.77

Valenciennes 2.85 LOST -9.25

Lorient ABANDONED

Parma 3.65 LOST -13.25

Atalanta 4.60 WON +4.77

H Rostock 5.20 WON +4.77

Samsunspor 3.50 WON +9.52

Cottbus 4.0 WON +9.52



TOTAL TODAY RS: +8.57

TOTAL TODAY LS: -0.9

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +163.5

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +21.7

WON LAYS: 199

LOST LAYS: 69

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7452

Tuesday lay:

Portsmouth to win 5pts

Celebrating the 200th won lay today!!


Portsmouth 5.90 WON +4.77


TOTAL TODAY RS: +4.77

TOTAL TODAY LS: +0.952

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +168.3

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +22.6

WON LAYS: 200

LOST LAYS: 69

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7524.5

congrats. football form improves
march till the end of season.
goodluck doubling bank
to £10.000

Thanks roadrunner46!

Will do my best and hope for the best!

Lay for friday:


Freiburg to win 5pts

Lays for saturday:


Gaziantep BB 3pts 

Dynamo Dresden 5pts

Karlsruhe 5pts 

Dijon 5pts

Hoffenheim 5pts

Coventry 3pts

Portsmouth 3pts

Wycombe 3pts

A profitable day, 8 out of 9!

Approaching the 200 points profit mark.



Freiburg 6.20 WON +4.77

Gaziantep BB 5.0 LOST -12 

Dynamo Dresden 4.20 WON +4.77

Karlsruhe 6.0 WON +4.77

Dijon 5.0 WON +4.77

Hoffenheim 4.40 WON +4.77

Coventry 8.40 WON +4.77

Portsmouth 5.80 WON +2.85

Wycombe 9.60 WON +2.85



TOTAL TODAY RS: +22.32

TOTAL TODAY LS: +3.6

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +190.6

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +26.2

WON LAYS: 208

LOST LAYS: 70

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7859

Lay of the day:

Tranmere to win 5pts

As a side bet I would say it will be ok to lay cs 2-1, last 5 away games for Tranmere ended up 2-1, based on the law of averages I refuse to believe in a 6th in a row 2-1.

FT 0-0 Tranmere 4.30 WON +4.77

Extra bet on CS also won, good for those who followed.


TOTAL TODAY RS: +4.77

TOTAL TODAY LS: +0.952

POINTS PROFIT RECOMMENDED STAKES: +195.4

POINTS PROFIT LEVEL STAKES: +27.1

WON LAYS: 209

LOST LAYS: 70

STARTING BANK: $5000

CURRENT BANK: $7930

Friday:

Dynamo Dresden 5pts

Telstar 3pts

Fortuna Sittard 5pts

Outcome

unfortunatley, i think Trader has moved on which is a shame because he was doing excellent with good discipline which i think was his original target