LORDBOBBIN LAYING

Well it's partially form reading. And partially I go on statistics that I've calculated that tell me the likelihood of a horse winning or placing given its advantage or disadvantage compared to the other horses in the field.

I look at the stats and the recent form of the top three or four in the market, and then set those against the way the race is likely to be run and what I think will be required to win. If my gut instinct tells me that one of the top four horses or so is too short and so taking that bet would lose money in the long term, I'll lay them.

I'm still developing my laying, and will be hoping to do more and more of it when I've got a bigger bank. However, it is more volatile than safe place backing, so I'm currently building my bank mostly through place bets with a few small lay bets added. When I've got a sufficiently large bank, I'll split it into two halves and I can then put rather more behind my lay bets - you need a different mindset when laying, so I find it's best to try and keep those strategies as separate as possible from ones involving backing in the place markets.

(PS: If you want to talk to me directly, could you pm me rather than plastering these 'CALLING LORD BOBBIN etc' threads across the forum!)

ok soory for making lord bobbin threads



does your laying mostly be in us races


also what has happened to the us forum i heard a few years ago you could get like 500 replies a night on there on a day like monday

now you be lucky to get 20 replies even on a saturday

At the moment my lays are probably about 60% US Racing and 40% UK Racing. I'm expecting to increase the percentage of lays in the US Racing, though, since I have stronger better-worked stats for the US stuff. UK Racing is a little fluffier and lacking in substance (less consistent speed figures due partly to the variety of tracks and longer distances, no sectional times etc.), and so is less well suited to my approach.    Having said that, the market liquidity is much greater in UK racing, so I suspect I'll end up putting on far more lays on in the US markets, but be laying much greater amounts in the UK markets.


Yes, the US forum is a bit of a mystery. It was going downhill even before the introduction of PC2, but the £250K tax appears to have almost completely killed it off. A few of the higher profile posters have left and gone to the other place, and their followers seem to have disappeared with them. Without the likes of Jas1968 putting up picks every few minutes (and attracting various related comments from other users), the volume of posts has dropped very dramatically. On some nights there isn't even a thread at all, when, as you say, there used to be several hundred posts even on a quiet night.   I understand that the US markets have fallen off quite noticeably since PC2, but they haven't collapsed to such an extent that the forum should have died in the way that it has.

is there now less liquidity on the us markets whats the place markets like is it hard to get a big bet match

Yeah, there's definitely less liquidity. Some of the later place markets go without a single £2 bet being matched, so if you want to lump on with just several hundred, you've got to be very patient waiting for the right race to come along.

It's very annoying, as I'm only just getting up to the point where I can start betting with decent money. And now the bottom's falling out of the market.  That's partly why I'm spending a lot more time looking at laying in the win markets (liquidity's tumbled there too, but there was always an awful lot more to begin with) and at the UK races.

if betfair offered less us races would liquidity increase or would it make people not bother at all with it

like today offer woodbine belmont monmouth  then later on mountaineer and emerald downs


and on the midweek offer two early meetings and two late meetings

I suppose there is something in that. You'd probably get a similar amount being spread across fewer markets, so you would get better liquidity in the races themselves. I couldn't really say though. To me, more races gives me more opportunities to find some decent bets. On days where there're only a couple of tracks running at a time, interest does wane a little, but that could be the 'Tuesday' effect.